미중 투자 전략과 중국 주식 시장의 역학 관계

### 미국과 중국 시장의 복잡성 탐색하기: 전략과 인사이트
* 🇺🇸 미국과 중국 모두에 투자하는 전략이 강조되고 있으며, 특히 **금리가 낮아질 때 미국이 가장 유리**한 것으로 보입니다.
* 🇨🇳 중국 주식 시장은 정부가 주로 통제하는 **비상장 주식**으로 인해 만성적인 문제에 직면해 있으며, 이는 주식 처분 시 **상당한 공급 압박**으로 이어집니다.
* 📉 과거 패턴을 보면 중국 시장은 **공급 과잉으로 인해 급등 후 폭락**하는 경우가 많았고, 정부가 개입해 경제와 주가를 안정시키는 경우가 많았습니다.
* 💵 최근 정부가 지급준비금 요건을 낮추고 주식 매입을 위한 펀드를 조성하는 등의 조치를 취하면서 **홍콩 증시는 글로벌 경제 상황보다는 정책 변화에 민감하게 반응**하는 모습을 보이며 상승세를 이어가고 있습니다.
* 🔄 투자자들은 **단기적인 기회**로 인해 중국 주식을 보유하는 것이 좋지만, 가격이 상승할 때는 **적절하게 노출을 줄이는 것**이 중요합니다.
* 📊 중국 시장에 대한 노출 증가를 지지하지만 **장기 전망은 여전히 암울**하며, 균형 잡힌 자산 배분 전략을 유지할 것을 권고합니다.
* ⚖ 중국과 한국의 지배구조 이슈는 주가 상승을 저해하고 있으며, 이는 이들 시장이 **투자 기회를 제공할 수는 있지만 자산 배분을 지배해서는 안 된다**는 것을 시사합니다.
* 💡 궁극적으로, 특히 지속적인 경제적 도전에 비추어 **이러한 시장의 예측 불가능한 특성**을 인식하고 전략적으로 재조정하는 데 초점을 맞추고 있습니다.

중국 주식 시장은 정부 정책에 매우 민감하여 투자 전략에 큰 영향을 미칩니다.

The strategy of buying both the US and China is something I've been discussing. I think the US looks the most favorable because when the US lowers interest rates, the next best region is China. You may remember that when the US lowers interest rates, the money that had been flowing out of China stabilizes. As the dollar weakens during this process, liquidity in China improves. When liquidity in China improves, the government also has more room to actively inject money into the economy. This is a key point regarding the current economic policy, which was announced shortly after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. 

Hello, this is Economy Stong Uk. Today, let's talk about the Chinese stock market. There is a chronic problem in the Chinese stock market related to non-tradable shares. What this means is that most listed companies in China have shares that are not tradable, which are controlled by the government.

Holding shares or being related to other public sectors means that these entities hold stocks. When they start to sell the stocks they hold, the market faces strong supply pressure and an oversupply issue. Due to these oversupply problems, every time there is a massive surge in the Chinese stock market, the disposal of non-circulating stocks or stock disposals by other public sectors causes supply-demand imbalances, leading to collapses. This has happened repeatedly. In such situations, the Chinese government, particularly targeting financial institutions, has been saying they will not sell non-circulating stocks and will also help to liquidate them, and they will take over various measures. They are also lowering the reserve requirement ratio and planning to stimulate the economy, especially by creating funds that will buy stocks.

As it became visible, the stock market has now ignited. This year, the stock market that has risen the most in the world is now the Hong Kong stock market. The second place is likely to be taken by Kyrgyzstan. The characteristics of the Chinese stock market have been fully revealed today. What kind of characteristics does it have? It is very sensitive to government policies. This means that it is not closely related to the global economic environment; this is a characteristic of the Chinese stock market. In other words, its own schedule is much more important. The Chinese government might think, The stock market is struggling too much, and the people are suffering, so we need to stimulate it. They might consider raising stock prices to sell some of our non-circulating shares as a strategy or when there is a need to do so. When they raise stock prices, most of the rhetoric is about economic stimulus, and they also restrict the sale of non-circulating shares. Furthermore, they inject money into the market.

If we do this, people will forget everything again and jump back into the market, forgetting the stock market crash that happened in the past. Yes, this happened in Korea as well. In 1989, many people may not know about the public offering of national stocks, but companies like POSCO and Korea Electric Power Corporation were listed at that time. The market was shattered because 20% of the market capitalization was listed, and it led to an immediate collapse of the stock market. Experiencing such events, the Chinese stock market has gone through a lot of struggles. In the process of facing these challenges multiple times, the Chinese people have learned a pattern: when the government stabilizes the economy, the stock market rises sharply, and they jump in at that time. They tend to sell off when they think it's a suitable time and they have made some profits. This short-term trading tendency was also seen in 2008 and again in 2015 and 2016, so we must not forget this.

In that regard, I view the recent rise in the Chinese stock market as a short-term opportunity. Among the clients who joined the Prism platform, many have likely received rebalancing signals during the Chuseok holiday. Depending on the products they subscribed to, some may have exposure to Chinese stocks, and the weight of these stocks varies. For those who have invested in neutral or growth-oriented products, there is some exposure to China. Given the recent turmoil in the Chinese stock market, signals for selling and rebalancing would have emerged. As indicated by these signals, I believe that one should hold onto Chinese stocks to some extent because we never know when they might rise. However, when they do rise, I think it is essential to appropriately reduce the weight of those stocks. It’s not looking good. While I have generally supported increasing exposure to the Chinese stock market, I mentioned this in our year-end broadcast.

I think I've mentioned this several times, but it will be on our YouTube channel. We are implementing a long-short strategy in the U.S. and China, while reducing exposure in Korea and Europe. I've been talking about this because the U.S. seems to be the best option. When the U.S. lowers interest rates, the next best region is China. I wonder if you remember that. So, with this strategy, when the U.S. lowers interest rates, the money that was flowing out of China into the U.S. tends to stabilize. As the dollar weakens during this process, liquidity in China improves. When liquidity in China improves, the government also gains the capacity to actively inject money into the economy. You should know that the timing of this current economic stimulus policy came right after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. However, just because they are injecting money now doesn't mean that the situation will improve, especially considering the common prosperity policy that the Chinese government implemented in 2021.

Do you remember Jack Ma? The company that was taken over, DD, is the largest taxi-hailing company in China. They were going to go public on the U.S. stock market like Uber but almost went bankrupt. That has changed, right? No, it hasn't. The idea is to take money from the rich and distribute it. Well, most of it will probably end up in the pockets of the Communist Party members, but that's how they are currently managing the economy. The existing policies haven't changed; it's just that the real estate market is really struggling and the stock market is also very tough, so they are injecting money here to give out. It's good, right? But I think there are still many people who will see it as a reality check. Fundamentally, the attitude towards China's information has changed, and the most representative example is the concept of common prosperity. However, if this continues, President Xi will have to put his neck on the line, so I think it won't be easy. For now, the economy is trapped in deflation.

The short-term stimulus policy was implemented because we were struggling. In such cases, I will take the position of doing a good rebalancing. I think a maximum of 10% is quite a lot, but now it has become about 15%. So, we should sell about 5%. My basic long-term outlook on the Chinese market is bleak. However, from the perspective of asset allocation, it is a country that is good for investment. When the U.S. or other countries are struggling, there are times when China's market suddenly rises. It happened once in 2015. Such occurrences are common in this country, so we are holding onto it out of fear of missing out rather than expecting significant returns. This is my position. Yes, it's about South Korea. South Korea has been doing the same things as China since the 1980s and 1990s, and even recently. Whenever stock prices rise, the Chinese government intervenes, and in our case, whenever stock prices rise, the owners...

The stock markets in our country and China are in such a state. What are the characteristics of these countries? That's right, they are countries with governance issues. And in countries with governance problems, even if the economy grows, the stock prices often do not rise. So, from the perspective of asset allocation, while they are growing countries and should be included, there is no reason to allocate a significant portion of the total assets to them. I want to say that this applies to both Korea and China. Thank you very much for your attention.

중국 역대급 부양 정책, 자산 비중 늘려도 될까?

"환율의 미래"와 "프랑스 탐방기" 등 10여권의 책을 쓴, 이코노미스트 홍춘욱입니다. 25년 넘게 이코노미스트 일을 하면서, 반복되는 질문에 답하느라 힘들었는데.. 동영상을 통해 자주 묻는 질문에 대해 쉽게 답하고자 합니다.


*비지니스문의 : hong8706@us-all.co.kr
*강연 문의: https://c11.kr/19l7h


홍춘욱의 경제강의노트

미국과 중국 경제의 상호 연결성

미국과 중국에 모두 투자하는 전략은 금리 변화를 통해 중국의 유동성에 대한 미국의 영향력을 기반으로 합니다.

중국 주식 시장은 정부가 통제하는 비유통주라는 고질적인 문제로 인해 수급 불균형과 시장 붕괴로 이어지는 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

이에 중국 정부는 비유통주 매각 금지, 지급준비율 인하, 주식 매입을 위한 기금 조성 등 시장 안정화 조치를 시행하고 있습니다.

홍콩 주식 시장은 올해 전 세계에서 가장 큰 폭으로 상승했고, 키르기스스탄이 그 뒤를 이었습니다.

중국 주식 시장은 정부 정책에 매우 민감하며 글로벌 경제 환경보다 자국의 일정을 우선시합니다.

중국 정부의 주식 시장 부양 전략에는 주가 상승, 비유통 주식 매각 제한, 시장 자금 투입 등이 있으며, 이는 투자자들 사이에서 단기 매매 패턴으로 이어집니다.

최근 중국 증시 상승은 단기 기회로 여겨지고 있으며, 추석 연휴 기간 동안 프리즘 플랫폼 고객들은 리밸런싱 신호를 받을 가능성이 높습니다.

중립 또는 성장형 상품에 투자하는 고객들은 중국 주식에 어느 정도 노출되어 있으며, 시장 혼란으로 인해 매도 및 리밸런싱 신호가 나타나고 있습니다.

미국 금리 인하로 자금 흐름이 안정되고 중국 유동성이 개선될 것으로 예상하면서 한국과 유럽 익스포저를 줄이는 데 중점을 두고 미국과 중국에 롱숏으로 접근하는 전략을 구사하고 있습니다.

중국 경제의 어려움과 DD의 인수합병

중국 최대 택시 호출 회사인 디디추싱이 미국 기업 공개를 앞두고 파산 위기에 직면하면서 중국 정부의 경제 관리가 비판에 직면했습니다.

부동산과 주식 시장이 어려움을 겪으면서 단기적인 부양 정책과 공동 번영을 위한 노력이 요구되고 있습니다.

발표자는 중국 시장에 대한 장기적인 전망은 암울하지만 글로벌 경기 침체기에 잠재적인 투자 기회로 보고 있습니다.

한국과 중국의 거버넌스 이슈와 주식 시장

한국과 중국 모두 지배구조 문제로 인해 주식 시장이 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

이들 국가는 경제 성장에도 불구하고 주가가 정체되어 있는 경우가 많습니다.

따라서 자산 배분에 포함시켜야 하지만 전체 자산의 상당 부분을 이들 국가에 할당할 명분이 없습니다.