중국-인도 관계의 악화: 최근의 역사와 긴장

중-인도 관계가 악화되는 가운데 대만에 대한 모디 총통의 따뜻한 반응은 중국과의 긴장을 촉발하고, 변화하는 여론과 경제적 우려를 반영합니다.

### 최근 중국-인도 관계 악화에 대한 이해
* 🇮🇳 나렌드라 모디 인도 총리가 재선에 성공한 후 대만 총통의 축하 메시지에 긍정적인 반응을 보여 중국의 격한 반응을 불러 일으켰습니다. **인도는 공식적으로 중국의 '하나의 중국' 정책을 고수**하고 있지만, 중국 공산당에서는 이를 위반하는 행위로 간주했습니다.
* 🇨🇳 중국과 인도의 관계는 계속되는 국경 분쟁과 **중국과 파키스탄의 긴밀한 관계**라는 두 가지 주요 요인으로 인해 항상 긴장 관계를 유지해 왔습니다. 양국은 국경을 두고 여러 차례 전쟁을 치렀고, 인도는 중국의 파키스탄 지원에 불편한 심기를 드러내고 있습니다.
* 📈 중국과 인도 관계는 양국 간 교역이 증가하고 **모디 총리가 보다 독립적인 외교 정책**을 추구하던 2015년 초에 정점을 찍었습니다. 그러나 2010년대 후반부터 관계가 악화되기 시작했고, **2017년 도클람 교착 상태**와 같은 사건이 발생했습니다.
* 💰 인도는 중국에서 더 많은 첨단 제조 제품을 수입하면서 중국에 대한 경제적 의존도가 높아지는 것에 대해 점점 더 우려하고 있습니다. **모디 총리가 산업 정책에 중점**을 두면서 인도는 중국과 경제 경쟁을 벌이고 있습니다.
* 🇹🇼 인도는 국내 반도체 산업을 발전시키고 중국에 대한 대안을 마련하기 위해 **대만과 강력한 상업적 관계**를 발전시켜 왔습니다. 대만 기업들은 인도에 투자하고 있으며, **인도 노동자들을 대만으로 데려오기 위한 협정**이 체결되었습니다.
* 🇺🇸 인도는 중국에 대한 안보 보증국으로서 그리고 경제 관계의 심화로 인해 **미국과 가까워지고 있습니다**. 국경 분쟁을 완화하려는 노력에도 불구하고 양측은 **이 문제를 해결하지 못하고 있습니다**.
* 📉 최근 중국과 인도 관계가 악화된 가장 큰 이유는 인도 여론의 변화입니다. 퓨 리서치 센터의 설문조사에 따르면 **인도인의 3분의 2가 국경 분쟁으로 인해 중국에 대해 부정적인 시각**을 갖고 있는 것으로 나타났습니다. 모디 총리가 중국과 거리를 두는 것은 선거에서 부진한 성적을 거둔 후 여론에 동조하고 지지를 강화하기 위한 정치적으로 현명한 조치로 보입니다.

this video is brought to you by skillshare. After Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's re-election earlier this month, world leaders rushed to X to congratulate him. Last time Modi was reelected in 2019, China's President Xi Jinping was actually one of the first to congratulate him, and actually did so before the official result had even been announced. This time, however, she didn't congratulate Modi himself, and instead got his Premier Lee Chang to do it nearly two weeks late. But perhaps even more notably, Modi himself responded effusively to a congratulatory message from Taiwan's recently elected President Li Ching T, saying that he looked forward to closer ties between Taiwan and India. While India officially adheres to Beijing's One China policy, and Modi conspicuously refrained from using the words Taiwan or President, this was still enough to provoke an angry reaction from the CCP. China's Foreign Ministry warned that Modi's comments were a violation of the One China policy and insisted that

India was obliged to resist the Taiwan authori political calculations. All this is a symptom of a wider deterioration in relations between India and China recently. So in this video, we thought we'd take a look at the history of the two countries' relationship and why things have been going downhill recently despite showing tentative signs of improvement only a few years ago. Before we start, if you haven't already, please consider subscribing, subbing, and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos. So let's start with a bit of context. Despite strong economic relations, China is currently India's largest trading partner. Sino-Indian relations have always been strained by two things: an ongoing border dispute and China's close relationship with Pakistan. When it comes to the border dispute, China and India disagree over the territorial status of Aksai Chin, an area administered by China as part of Xinjiang, and Arunachal Pradesh, an area administered by India. The two sides have fought multiple wars over the border.

including most notably the Sino-Indian War of 1962. There have been multiple skirmishes more recently, but in 1996, the two sides signed an agreement banning military weapons and explosives along the border. Which means that today the skirmishes are fought with improvised weapons like iron rods and barbed bats. India also doesn't like China's close relationship with Pakistan. Context: China and Pakistan have enjoyed a remarkably friendly relationship ever since they established diplomatic ties in 1951 when Pakistan became one of the first countries to sever relations with the ROC government in Taiwan in favor of the PRC. China has long provided Pakistan with significant amounts of military and economic assistance, while Pakistan has been one of China's staunchest diplomatic allies, providing support over issues like Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan. And the CCP have long dreamt of building an oil pipeline through Pakistan to resolve their dependence on vulnerable maritime imports. However, the main motivation for both countries is that the relationship acts as a geopolitical hedge against India, something India is understandably

uncomfortable with a few years ago. Though it looked like Sino-India relations were on the up, Sino-India relations arguably peaked in early 2015 when bilateral trade was ballooning, and both sides were engaged in a diplomatic charm offensive after Modi's first election. In part because Modi was willing to pursue a more independent foreign policy than his predecessors. At the time, Pew polling suggested the Indians had the most positive view of China of basically any large country. Sino-Indian relations then faltered in the latter half of the 2010s, largely thanks to an uptick in violence among the Border, including the 2017 Doklam standoff. But there had been tentative signs of reproach me in the last couple of years. At last year's BRICS Summit, for instance, Modi and Xi agreed to attempt a de-escalation of the Border standoff, and China's Ambassador Post in New Delhi, which had sat vacant for 18 months, was finally filled in May. However, in the past few months or so, Sino-Indian relations have once again

deteriorated, as evidenced by the Taiwan feror. This is for at least five reasons. First, while China and India do a lot of trade like many other countries, India is increasingly concerned about its growing economic dependence on China. China India imports significantly more from China than it exports to China, and India's exports are mostly stuff like food and primary goods, while China's exports to high-tech manufactured goods like phones, solar panels, and electric vehicles. Under Modi, India is also getting more interested in industrial policy, but this puts it in implicit competition with China economically because industrial policy usually focuses on developing manufacturing industries that China often dominates. Second, India has developed increasingly strong commercial ties with Taiwan, largely because India wants to develop a domestic semiconductor industry and offers an alternative home for Apple, which is currently trying to extricate itself from China. Taiwan's Power Chip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp or PSMC is currently building a chip-making plant in Modi's home state of Garat, while Taiwanese manufacturing giant and iPhone manufacturer Foxconn has recently

expanded its manufacturing base in India in February. India also signed an agreement to bring Indian migrant workers to Taiwan to ease the Island's long-standing labor shortage. Third, despite a brief hiccup late last year when the US accused an Indian official of trying to assassinate a US citizen, India has been moving closer to the US. This is in part a reaction to escalating geopolitical tensions. India sees the US as the most effective security guarantor against both China specifically, but also the more general geopolitical chaos we're seeing across the world at the moment. But it's also a consequence of the deepening economic relationship between India and the US. For context, bilateral trade has steadily increased over the past couple of years, and America temporarily overtook China as India's largest trading partner in 2023. Fourth, the two sides have been unable to deescalate the border conflict. Both sides have stopped reporting the skirmishes as publicly as they once did, but in January, India admitted that there were at least two violent incidents in 2022. And a couple of months ago, India

deployed another 10,000 troops to the area after accusing China of building military infrastructure along the border. But the fifth, and perhaps most important reason, is the shift in Indian public opinion. As we mentioned a second ago, in 2015, Indians were pretty pro-China, with just a one-third minority of Indians expressing an unfavorable opinion of China. Today, however, the polling has flipped. A Pew Research Center survey published in 2023 indicates that two-thirds of Indians now hold an unfavorable view of China, making India the only middle-income country where a majority has unfavorable views of China. This has a lot to do with the border skirmishes, which are obviously widely covered in India and have really hurt China's image with ordinary Indians. In this light, Modi's recent pivot away from China should be seen as a reflection of public opinion and a politically savvy move to shore up his support after a relatively weak showing at the ballot box a week or so ago. We announced that we're working on a physical magazine.

which dives deep into the upcoming UK general election. But it turns out that designing a magazine isn't all that easy, so we headed to Skillshare to take a look through some of their design courses. Unlike when we tried to learn InDesign for another never-released project a few years ago, we were guided through the process quickly and efficiently. And this time, the project will actually see the light of day thanks to Skillshare's incredibly easy-to-follow guides. It's not just that, either. You likely already know that Skillshare is the largest online learning community for creatives, with thousands of classes led by industry experts from across film, illustration, design, freelance, and productivity. But Skillshare can also help you take your career or side hustles to the next level with hundreds of career-focused classes. That's courses on everything from how to start a business to maximizing your workflow or how to grow in e-commerce. Another course we used when building the website for the magazine. The best news is that the first 500 people to use the link in the

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Why China-India Relations Have Fallen to New Lows

TLDR News Global

세계 지도자들은 최근 나렌드라 모디 인도 총리의 재선을 축하하기 위해 몰려들었지만, 중국의 반응은 이전 선거와 비교해 눈에 띄게 달라졌습니다.

대만 총통에 대한 모디 총리의 긍정적인 반응은 중국 공산당의 강한 반발을 불러일으켰고, 인도-중국 관계의 악화로 이어졌습니다.

긴장된 관계는 양국 간의 강력한 경제 관계에도 불구하고 계속되는 국경 분쟁과 중국의 파키스탄과의 동맹 관계에 영향을 받았습니다.

중국, 인도, 파키스탄의 복잡한 관계

1962년의 중국-인도 전쟁과 그 후의 교전은 양국 간의 긴장 관계를 형성했습니다.

중국과 파키스탄은 강력한 동맹 관계를 유지해 왔으며, 중국은 군사 및 경제 원조를 제공하고 파키스탄은 다양한 외교 문제에서 중국을 지지하고 있습니다.

변동이 심한 중국과 인도 관계는 성장의 시기도 있었지만, 특히 국경 대치로 인해 긴장이 고조되기도 했으며, 최근에는 긴장 완화를 위한 시도가 있었습니다.

대만 관계가 중국, 인도, 미국 간의 경제 역학 관계에 미치는 영향

중국에 대한 인도의 경제적 의존도가 높아지면서 수출보다 수입이 훨씬 더 많아져 제조업 분야에서 중국의 우위와 암묵적인 경쟁을 벌이고 있어 우려를 낳고 있습니다.

인도는 국내 반도체 산업을 발전시키고 중국에 대한 의존도를 낮추기 위해 대만과의 상업적 관계를 강화하여 대만 기업과 이주 노동자를 유치하고 있습니다.

인도와 미국 간의 지정학적 긴장이 고조되고 경제 관계가 심화되면서 인도는 중국에 대한 안보 보증인으로서 미국에 더 가까워지고 있으며, 이는 양국 간 무역 파트너십의 변화로 이어지고 있습니다.

인도는 국경에 있는 중국의 군사 인프라에 대한 비난으로 인해 1만 명의 병력을 추가로 배치했습니다.

인도 여론의 3분의 2가 중국에 대해 부정적 견해를 갖고 있는 상황에서 모디 총리는 중국으로부터 멀어지는 방향으로 방향을 선회했습니다.

스킬쉐어는 영국 총선을 다루는 잡지를 디자인하고 따라 하기 쉬운 가이드와 다양한 관련 강좌를 제공하는 데 큰 도움을 주었습니다.

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