중국의 식량 안보 위기: 영향과 정치적 파급 효과

### 중국의 식량 안보 위기: 자연재해와 경제적 도전의 영향
* 🌧 중국의 기록적인 강우량으로 인해 식량 생산에 심각한 차질이 빚어지면서 **시진핑 주석은 14억 인구의 식량 안보에 대한 우려**를 표명했습니다.
* 📈 뉴욕 타임즈는 홍수로 인해 농산물 가격이 **최대 40%까지 급등**했으며, 특히 쑤저우와 같은 지역에서는 농작물이 **완전히 폐기**되는 등 농작물 생산에 막대한 피해를 입었다고 보도했습니다.
* 🚨 이러한 위기에 대응하여 중국 정부는 상황 안정을 위해 비상사태를 선포하고 **2024년까지 국가 곡물 생산량을 6억 5천만 톤 이상**으로 유지해야 한다고 강조했습니다.
* 💰 식료품 가격 상승으로 소비자들이 지출을 줄이면서 **중국 경제가 위축**되는 등 경제적 압박이 분명해졌습니다.
* 🌾 계속되는 자연재해로 인해 **약 600만 에이커의 농작물이 피해**를 입어 **100억 달러가 넘는 손실**이 예상되며 식량 안보 상황이 더욱 복잡해졌습니다.
* 📉 식량 자급률을 높이기 위한 노력에도 불구하고 **식량 자급률은 감소**하고 있어 식량 안보 문제의 심각성이 중국 공산당의 핵심 관심사로 부각되고 있습니다.
* ⚠ 콩과 돼지고기 같은 주식의 가격 상승이 폭동을 일으킬 수 있기 때문에 **식량 부족으로 인한 광범위한 불안의 가능성**은 여전히 정부에 큰 걱정거리입니다.
* 🌍 시진핑 정부는 식량 안보가 본질적으로 체제 안정과 연결되어 있다는 점을 인식하고 있으며, **권력 유지에 위협이 될 수 있는 위기를 막기 위해 이러한 문제를 해결하는 것이 필수적**입니다.

기상이변으로 악화된 중국의 식량 안보 위기는 체제 안정을 위협하고 시진핑 주석의 시급한 정책 과제를 부각시키고 있습니다.

One of the top priorities for China's President Xi Jinping is food security. However, this year, due to record rainfall in China, there are significant disruptions expected in food production. As a result, Chinese authorities are busy formulating measures amid rising tensions. The issue is that if there are problems with the food supply for 1.4 billion Chinese people, it could immediately pose a crisis for regime security, which has put the Chinese Communist Party on high alert. The New York Times has investigated the food security situation in China, which is in a precarious state. 

As of now, the New York Times reports that the record rainfall has caused enormous damage to crop production, significantly shaking the Chinese leadership. It also noted that prices for various agricultural products have skyrocketed, prompting the authorities to enter a state of emergency to stabilize the situation. At the end of August, due to the enormous rainfall, areas approximately 290 kilometers away from Beijing were severely affected.

As the city of Suzhou was completely flooded, all the crops that had been cultivated there were ultimately discarded. In this way, China has experienced floods nationwide due to unusual weather patterns, which have had a tremendous impact on crop production. Consequently, the prices of many vegetables across China have surged by up to 40%, reaching their highest levels in five years. This has affected the wallets of the people, who are already struggling with a slowing economy. In fact, ensuring that the 1.4 billion population in China can sustain themselves is the primary goal of the Chinese Communist Party and a key policy point for President Xi Jinping. This year, Xi's first document focused on the three rural issues, which pertain to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers, demonstrating a significant emphasis on achieving food self-sufficiency. In January of this year, the State Council of China addressed food security.

The local government and rural communities have been ordered to ensure that grain production does not fall below a minimum level to prevent a large-scale poverty crisis. Furthermore, in President Xi Jinping's theoretical documents, it is stated that the national grain production for 2024 must be maintained at over 650 million tons. This highlights the significance of food security as the most pressing issue for the Chinese Communist Party. Despite the importance of food security, this year, the situation has been exacerbated by natural disasters, leading to a serious crisis. In response, Xi Jinping held an emergency cabinet meeting at the end of July to discuss the public's suffering caused by flooding. During this meeting, Xi instructed that agricultural losses must be minimized and food security ensured. The problem is that the food supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather events, such as the recent floods, have already surpassed the capacity of the Chinese authorities to resolve them. In this regard, The New York Times has reported that China is already facing food shortages.

China has entered a crisis stage regarding security. It is already the world's largest food importer, needing to feed nearly one-sixth of the global population with less than ten percent of the world's land, which is shrinking and devastated due to fertilizer use and pollution. The New York Times reported that, in this situation, as more generations migrate for better wages, the number of farmers is gradually decreasing. This suggests that China's food security is inevitably facing greater crises. However, in this context, nature has not been kind to China. The country's leadership announced in August that this year has seen more river flooding than any other year since records began in 1998. Additionally, China has recorded the hottest temperatures since at least 1961. Darin Friedrichs, head of agricultural market research at Stony Agri Consulting, stated that the National Disaster Management Department of China reported in July.

Due to natural disasters, losses exceeding 10 billion dollars have been reported, with approximately 90% of these losses attributed to typhoons and floods. It is estimated that around 6 million acres of crops have been damaged. As a result, food prices across China have skyrocketed. Last month, consumers in northern and eastern China expressed their dissatisfaction with the prices of basic vegetables such as eggplant, kidney beans, and cucumbers, stating that they are too expensive to purchase. The New York Times reported that when the prices of essential food items rise, consumers are forced to cut back on spending in other areas, ultimately leading to a contraction of the Chinese economy. The New York Times also diagnosed the current food supply issue as serious, indicating that China is already facing enormous challenges. The Chinese Communist Party is aware of this situation. Since Xi Jinping took power in 2012, they have been cognizant of these issues.

He stated that not addressing food security could lead to terrible consequences and warned against becoming complacent with stable grain production levels. Since Xi Jinping issued these directives, ensuring food supply has become part of his political brand. Xi Jinping has also declared that it is essential to revitalize rural areas to establish a stable agricultural foundation over the years. This is crucial because if the prices of basic commodities rise sharply or if there is a shortage in supply, the entire Chinese society could fall into turmoil. There are reasons why Xi Jinping places such importance on food issues. Historically, China's water distribution is uneven; the south is vulnerable to floods while the north is susceptible to summer droughts. Therefore, the Chinese government focuses on the major rivers in the south.

We have made significant investments in approximately 8,000 water resource conservation projects across the country, including efforts to redirect excess water to the north. The problem is that due to climate change, these patterns are changing, rendering many of our previous efforts ineffective. Additionally, urban flood control is sometimes carried out in a very political manner. In other words, to prevent urban flooding, there are instances where floods are intentionally induced in rural areas. Furthermore, when rivers overflow, political considerations often take precedence in deciding which areas will be sacrificed, leaving rural regions to face even greater damage. However, what the Xi Jinping administration truly fears is that food shortages in China could create widespread unrest throughout society. Professor Yang Haiyin from Shizuoka University in Japan also pointed out this concern, emphasizing the implications of Deng Xiaoping's policies.

A friend once said that Chinese people are easy to manage, stating that as long as there is enough food, the Chinese populace would not rebel or challenge the Chinese government. Professor Yang Hai further mentioned the reasons behind this belief. He noted that while they claim to have resolved the poverty issue, it seems they are aware that the grain-producing regions do not have an abundance of food. He also pointed out that, following the Russia-Ukraine war, a global food shortage is expected, which could lead to a domestic crisis. 

Another issue is that while living costs are rising, rural incomes are not sufficient to maintain livelihoods. As a result, many rural residents are flocking to cities. These migrant workers essentially live in difficult conditions, often not treated as people within China. Their migration to cities has created a labor shortage in rural areas, making Xi Jinping's goal of increasing food production seem like a distant dream.

The situation is becoming increasingly dire. In China, it is said that if the prices of beans and pork rise significantly, riots could break out. This reflects the fact that these are staple foods for the Chinese people and common items on their dining tables, which is why such statements are made. Chinese people are deeply concerned about issues related to food and livelihood. Therefore, the Chinese government must ensure that the people have no shortages in their basic needs. In other words, from China's perspective, it is unacceptable for the prices of agricultural products to rise or for supply and demand to become unstable. First, rising grain prices can heighten the public's anxiety about their basic living conditions. Furthermore, if the instability in the supply of agricultural products leads to supply shortages, it could have a tremendous ripple effect on the Chinese government, which is why they are on high alert. Thus, the Chinese government has no choice but to bring up the issue of food security once again.

It is a fact that China's food supply structure is such that it could quickly fall into crisis without American agricultural exports. Therefore, one of the important reasons China can never go to war with the United States is that if a war breaks out and American agricultural exports are halted, there could be food shortages in China that might lead the Chinese people to overthrow the Chinese Communist Party regime. Given this situation, it is serious that, despite President Xi Jinping emphasizing food security and trying to increase self-sufficiency, the self-sufficiency rate is not rising; rather, it is decreasing. This highlights the severity of the problem. The importance of this food security issue can be seen in an article on the front page of the People's Daily on February 18, 2022. It stated that the supply of primary products is a critical strategic issue, emphasizing that the Chinese people's rice bowl must always be firmly in their own hands.

The rice bowl should primarily contain Chinese cuisine. This was emphasized, stating that under no circumstances should others tighten their grip around our necks regarding the issue of food, which is fundamentally a matter of survival. It was mentioned that there should be no slackness in food security, highlighting Xi Jinping's remarks. In China, the issue of food security is directly linked to the stability of the regime. From this perspective, food issues are the Achilles' heel of the Xi Jinping administration. China is the world's largest food importer, and the country from which China imports the most food is the United States. Given this situation, it is impossible for China to assert global dominance while clashing with the U.S. This is noteworthy. If the U.S. were to use food as a weapon, what would happen to China? This is precisely why Xi Jinping cannot afford to confront the U.S. head-on. This was an analysis of the international situation by Watase. Thank you.

[Why Times 정세분석 2897] 위기에 빠진 중국의 식량안보, 비상걸린 시진핑 (2024.9.4)

Why Times

시진핑 주석은 식량 안보를 최우선시하지만 올해 기록적인 강우량으로 인해 생산에 차질을 빚고 전국적인 위기가 발생했습니다.

농작물 피해와 농산물 가격 폭등으로 인해 중국 공산당은 14억 인구의 식량 자급자족을 위해 비상사태를 선포하고 비상 경계 태세에 돌입했습니다.

상황을 안정시키려는 노력에도 불구하고 기상이변으로 인한 식량 공급망 붕괴로 중국에서는 식량 부족 사태가 지속되고 있습니다.

중국은 심각한 식량 안보 위기에 직면해 있으며, 세계 최대의 식량 수입국이지만 토지가 점점 줄어들고 오염되고 있습니다.

중국 지도부는 올해 전례 없는 강 범람과 기록적인 고온으로 인해 자연재해로 인한 손실이 100억 달러가 넘는다고 보고했습니다.

그 결과 식품 가격이 급등하여 소비자 불만이 커지고 중국 경제가 위축되고 있습니다.

식량 안보에 대한 시진핑의 초점

시진핑 주석은 식량 안보의 중요성을 강조하며 안일한 태도는 사회적 혼란을 초래할 수 있다고 경고했습니다.

시진핑 정부는 중국의 불균등한 물 분배 문제를 해결하기 위해 수자원 보존 프로젝트에 상당한 투자를 해왔지만 기후 변화로 인해 이러한 노력이 약화되고 있습니다.

도시 홍수 조절에 대한 정부의 접근 방식은 때때로 농촌 지역을 희생시켜 더 큰 피해와 잠재적 불안을 초래할 수 있다는 우려를 불러일으켰습니다.

식량이 충분하다면 중국 국민은 반란을 일으키지 않을 것이라는 믿음이 존재하지만, 전 세계적인 식량 부족은 상황을 더욱 악화시킬 것으로 예상됩니다.

생활비 상승과 농촌 소득 부족으로 인해 이주 노동자들이 도시로 몰리면서 농촌에 노동력 부족 현상이 나타나고 있습니다.

중국 정부는 이러한 문제가 대중의 불안과 잠재적인 사회 불안으로 이어질 수 있기 때문에 농산물 가격 상승과 공급 불안정에 대해 높은 경각심을 가지고 있습니다.

중국의 식량 안보와 미국 관계에 미치는 영향

중국의 식량 공급 구조는 미국의 농산물 수출에 크게 의존하고 있어 미국과의 잠재적 전쟁은 중국 정권에 위험합니다.

식량 자급률을 높이기 위한 시진핑 주석의 노력에도 불구하고 식량 자급률은 오히려 감소하고 있습니다.

중국 언론에서는 식량 안보의 중요성을 강조하고 있으며, 이 문제는 정권의 안정과 직결되어 있어 중국의 세계 지배 전략에서 중요한 요소로 작용하고 있습니다.