중국의 전기 자동차 전략: 도전 과제와 시장 변화

중국 전기차 제조업체들이 수익성 문제로 인해 하이브리드로 전환하면서 시진핑 주석의 경제 전략이 약화되고 있습니다.

### 중국의 전기 자동차 야망의 도전 과제: 하이브리드로의 전환
* 🚗 시진핑 주석은 **전기차를 중국 경제 활성화의 핵심 전략**으로 삼고 대대적인 국가 지원을 통해 **글로벌 시장 지배**를 목표로 하고 있습니다.
* ⚠ 그러나 중국의 전기 자동차 산업은 **제조업체들이 생산량을 늘리면서 손실**을 보고 하이브리드 차량으로의 전환을 촉구하면서 상당한 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.
* 📉 블룸버그는 **Xpeng과 Geely의 Zeekr을 비롯한 많은 기업이 수익성 확보를 위해 순수 전기 자동차에서 플러그인 하이브리드 및 주행 거리 연장 전기 자동차로 전환**하고 있다고 보도했습니다.
* 📊 8월 중국 내 하이브리드 차량 등록은 **140% 가까이 급증**했으며, 주행거리 연장 전기차는 **90% 증가**해 소비자 선호도의 변화를 반영했습니다.
* 💰 순수 전기차 판매량이 20% 증가했음에도 불구하고 지리자동차의 구이셩위와 같은 업계 경영진은 **"중국에서 돈을 버는 자동차 회사는 내연기관을 생산하는 회사뿐"**이라고 지적했습니다.
* 🌍 유럽과 미국에서 전기차 판매가 급격히 감소하면서 **주요 자동차 제조업체의 투자 계획이 축소**되는 등 글로벌 전기차 시장이 위축되고 있습니다.
* 🔋 이러한 위축은 배터리 제조업체에도 영향을 미쳐 **노스볼트가 20%의 인력 감축**을 발표하는 등 시진핑 주석의 경제 전략의 실행 가능성을 더욱 위협하고 있습니다.
* 🛠 전문가들은 중국 자동차 산업이 경쟁력을 유지하기 위해 **내연기관 수출을 다각화**하고 집중해야 한다고 경고하지만, 중국 지도부는 이러한 도전에도 불구하고 **전기차에 대한 집중**을 굳건히 유지하고 있습니다.

President Xi Jinping identified electric vehicles as the best strategic product to revitalize the Chinese economy, dreaming of dominating the global market through various state-level support. However, the electric vehicle industry has hit a sudden brake. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are incurring losses as they produce more electric cars, leading them to declare that they will instead focus on making hybrid cars. Time magazine examined the unexpected blow to China's electric vehicle global strategy. 

On the 8th, Bloomberg reported that Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are shifting towards hybrid cars because electric vehicles are not profitable. To generate revenue, some manufacturers that previously only produced battery electric vehicles plan to produce plug-in hybrid vehicles or extended-range electric vehicles that utilize both automotive engines and onboard batteries.

This caught attention in the report. Bloomberg subsequently mentioned companies that have shifted their production direction towards electric vehicles, including Xpeng, which is listed in the U.S., and Geely's premium brand, Zeekr. They also stated that the GAC Group's executive, Gu Hu, revealed that their Aion brand is developing extended-range electric vehicles. According to Bloomberg, hybrid vehicles are alleviating concerns about driving range and tend to be more affordable, leading to a rapid increase in popularity in China and other regions. Among these, plug-in hybrids include a fuel tank and engine that can operate when the battery is low, while extended-range electric vehicles periodically use a gasoline engine to recharge the battery. In this regard, the number of hybrid registrations in China surged by nearly 140% in August, and extended-range electric vehicles also saw a 90% increase.

The growth of pure electric vehicles has outpaced expectations. According to the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, sales of pure electric vehicles increased by 20% in just one month. However, Bloomberg reports that another reason why Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are entering the plug-in hybrid market is practicality. During a performance announcement conference in March, Gui Shengyu, an executive from Chinese automaker Geely, stated that the only automotive companies making money in China are those producing internal combustion engines, and that pure electric vehicle companies are not profitable. He added that, aside from Tesla, there are no pure electric vehicle manufacturers in China that have escaped from losses. Consequently, the Chinese companies BYD and Li Auto are profitable but are focusing on producing plug-in hybrids or extended-range electric vehicles. This shift reflects the changing consumer preferences among Chinese automotive manufacturers.

To revive, it is about showing will, which contrasts with the criticism from some executives. I can explain it this way: According to current media reports, four years ago, Volkswagen's China CEO, Stephan Wöllenstein, stated that extended-range electric vehicles are the worst solution for the environment. Tesla CEO Elon Musk also dismissed hybrids as vehicles that should be phased out in July 2022. However, the disdain for Tesla's hybrid cars could potentially lead to significant losses for Tesla, as it goes against the trend in the automotive market. The problem is that if the electric vehicle market is shaken, it could undermine even President Xi Jinping's grand vision. According to BloombergNEF, sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles more than doubled compared to 2021, and in 2022, they grew by 62%.

Last year, sales increased by only 31%, indicating a slowdown in growth. In particular, it appears that the transition to electric vehicles is retreating, especially in Europe and the United States. In fact, as of August this year, the market share of battery-powered vehicles in Europe was 14%, a decrease of 1 percentage point compared to the same month last year. However, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, new electric vehicle registrations in August fell by 16.5% year-on-year. Notably, in Germany, the largest automotive market in Europe, electric vehicle sales plummeted by 69%. In this regard, the automotive research firm JD Power predicted that battery electric vehicles would account for 99% of total sales in the U.S. automotive market this year, which is a decline from the previous forecast of 12.4%. They also noted that the main driving force behind the current growth of the electric vehicle market, excluding China, accounted for 59% of global sales. Bloomberg reported that in the early stages of the electric vehicle market...

There was an appeal to early adopters, and the vehicles gained popularity by incorporating various new technologies. However, they pointed out that in order to expand in the market, they overlooked the fact that the consumers they needed to target were different from the early users; they were more sensitive to costs. In this regard, it was noted that in Europe and the United States, pure electric vehicles are 30% and 27% more expensive, respectively, compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. It was analyzed that cost-sensitive individuals are likely to be skeptical about technology and, lacking confidence in charging infrastructure, are cautious about purchasing electric vehicles. In this situation, the abolition of government subsidies in Europe further complicated matters. Without subsidies, electric vehicles are inevitably more expensive than high-priced internal combustion engine vehicles. While Chinese electric vehicles are cheaper, Europe and the United States are taking measures to protect their domestic companies.

With the imposition of trade barriers such as tariffs, the advantage of Chinese electric vehicles, which was their low price, has disappeared. Consequently, it is only natural that the consumption of electric vehicles is sluggish. As a result, major electric vehicle companies like GM, Ford, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, and Toyota have no choice but to reduce their electric vehicle investment plans and cut their immediate production volumes. In this context, Bloomberg NEF pointed out that traditional automakers have set their electric vehicle sales target for 2030 at 2.37 million units, which is more than 300,000 units lower than last year's forecast. Even Tesla, the industry leader among pure electric vehicle manufacturers, has recently refrained from mentioning its previous goal of selling 20 million units annually by 2030. Ford has also completely halted its production plans for electric SUVs and postponed the launch of its next-generation electric pickup truck. Additionally, annual capital...

The plan is to reduce investment in electric vehicles, which previously accounted for 40% of expenditures, by 30%. Meanwhile, Volkswagen, the largest car manufacturer in Europe, is negotiating with labor unions regarding the closure of its German factory. The contraction of the electric vehicle market has directly impacted battery manufacturers. Northvolt, the largest battery company in Europe, announced a reduction of 20% of its global workforce. This situation in the electric vehicle market is shaking the foundations of Chinese President Xi Jinping's economic development strategy. As the global electric vehicle market shrinks contrary to initial expectations, market forecasts have also become pessimistic. Additionally, the already oversaturated Chinese market is at risk of falling into a state of stagnation. China has been actively exporting electric vehicles to the global market, but these exports are now facing obstacles, and the domestic market is already saturated.

As electric vehicle companies are turning to losses, there are bleak forecasts that if this situation is neglected, the entire automotive industry could collapse. Our newspaper reported on June 11 that the electric vehicle sector, which is a key pillar of China's economic growth under President Xi Jinping, is staggering under the weight of impending oversupply. It is said that while things seem to be going exceptionally well now, starting next year, the sector will enter a state of oversupply, and there are lamentations about the uncertain future ahead. At that time, our report highlighted that the oversupply of Chinese electric vehicles is primarily due to excessive exports to Europe, leading to a significant accumulation of vehicles in various locations across Europe. It was pointed out that if Chinese companies do not adequately respond to this issue, despite having made profits last year and this year, they could lose all the money they earned next year.

I pointed out that there is a high possibility that the electric vehicle market would be impacted. At that time, there were no forecasts suggesting that the growth of the electric vehicle market would be hindered by hybrid vehicles. It was already evident back then, but now, with the market situation changing rapidly, it is clear that the Chinese economy, which has heavily invested in the electric vehicle market, will face significant challenges. 

In fact, according to Caixin, which reports independently on the Chinese economy, China's automobile production has consistently grown in recent years, with electric vehicles being the main focus. However, there is uncertainty about whether this growth trend can continue. Consequently, business leaders suggest that the Chinese automotive industry should also prioritize the export of internal combustion engine vehicles. 

In a report by Xu Shiming, the general manager of Chery Automobile, he stated that the current market structure, where internal combustion engine vehicles hold a 60 to 70% share in overseas markets, is unlikely to change fundamentally in the next 5 to 10 years.

In order for Chinese companies to capture overseas markets, they must not ignore my annual report. This is the opinion that has been expressed. However, the Chinese leadership, including Xi Jinping, has ignored these experts' warnings. Even now, they stubbornly refuse to budge from their focus on electric vehicles. If one believes that such a China will function well, it can be asserted that this is, quite frankly, foolishness. Nonetheless, how should we understand the many who drool at the mere mention of China? I hope they can wake up and look at China properly. This was a commentary on international affairs. Thank you.

[Why Times 정세분석 2955] 날벼락 맞은 中 전기차 세계 장악 전략, “전기차 계속 만들면 망한다!” (2024.10.9)

Why Times

중국 전기차 제조업체들은 수익성 문제로 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 이는 하이브리드 자동차로 전환으로 이어지고 있습니다.

이러한 전환에는 경제성과 실용성으로 인기를 얻고 있는 플러그인 및 주행거리 연장 차량 생산이 포함됩니다.

순수 전기차 판매의 성장에도 불구하고 대부분의 중국 제조업체는 수익성 확보를 위해 하이브리드 자동차에 집중하고 있습니다.

어려움을 겪고 있는 전기 자동차 시장

폭스바겐의 중국 CEO와 테슬라의 일론 머스크는 하이브리드 자동차를 비판했지만, 이러한 경멸은 테슬라의 손실로 이어질 수 있습니다.

전기 및 플러그인 하이브리드 차량의 판매량은 2021년 이후 두 배로 증가했지만 2022년과 2023년에는 성장세가 둔화되었습니다.

유럽에서 배터리 구동 차량의 시장 점유율이 감소하고 신규 전기 자동차 등록이 감소했으며, 특히 독일에서는 판매량이 크게 감소했습니다.

전기 자동차 도입이 직면한 과제

전기차는 초기에는 얼리어답터들에게 인기를 얻었지만 비용에 민감한 소비자를 타겟으로 하기 때문에 보급 확대에 어려움을 겪었습니다.

전기차는 내연기관 모델보다 가격이 비싸고, 유럽에서 정부 보조금이 폐지되면서 경제성이 더욱 악화되었습니다.

무역 장벽으로 인해 중국 전기차의 가격 우위가 약화되면서 소비가 부진해졌고, 주요 자동차 제조업체들은 전기차에 대한 투자 계획과 생산량을 줄이게 되었습니다.

전기 자동차에 대한 투자가 30% 감소하면서 제조업체에 영향을 미치고 있으며, 노스볼트의 20% 인력 감축과 같은 일자리 감소로 이어지고 있습니다.

글로벌 전기차 시장의 위축은 중국의 경제 발전 전략을 방해하고 내수 시장의 잠재적 침체를 초래하고 있습니다.

공급 과잉과 수출 감소로 인해 전기차 산업은 암울한 미래에 직면하고 있으며, 자동차 산업 전체의 붕괴 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

중국 전기 자동차 시장이 직면한 과제

전기 자동차 시장의 성장이 하이브리드 자동차에 의해 방해받고 있으며, 이는 막대한 투자를 하고 있는 중국 경제에 상당한 도전으로 이어지고 있습니다.

자동차 생산의 지속적인 성장에도 불구하고 이러한 추세가 지속될지 불확실하기 때문에 비즈니스 리더들은 내연기관 자동차 수출에 집중할 것을 제안하고 있습니다.

내연기관 차량이 주요 점유율을 차지하고 있는 현재의 시장 구조는 향후 5~10년 내에 변화할 가능성이 낮지만, 중국 지도부는 여전히 전기 자동차에 대한 고집스러운 관심을 보이고 있습니다.