중국의 제조 전략과 글로벌 시장 시사점

중국의 제조업 경쟁력이 높아지면서 글로벌 수출 경쟁업체들에게 상당한 도전이 되고 있습니다.

### 중국의 경제 환경: 앞으로의 도전과 기회
* 📉 소비를 완화하지 않으면 경제 유출과 불안정으로 이어질 수 있기 때문에 국가적 관점에서 볼 때 **소비를 완화하는 것은 생존을 위해 매우 중요**합니다.
* 📊 중국의 강력한 제조업 성장세 속에서 채권의 성과는 불안정한 모습을 보이고 있으며, 특히 **CATL과 같은 기업들이 AI를 활용하여 생산성을 크게 향상**시키고 있습니다.
* 🌍 태양 에너지 및 LCD와 같은 산업에서 중국의 지배력은 **해외 시장에 대한 지배력**을 강조하며 한국과 일본과 같은 국가에 경쟁적 위협이 되고 있습니다.
* 📈 중국 정부가 고용과 시장 점유율에 집중하는 것은 **중간재와 자본재, 특히 반도체와 전기차와 같은 분야에 대한 막대한 투자**에 반영되어 있습니다.
* 🔄 중국은 공급 과잉과 디플레이션을 겪으면서 제조업 중심의 경제를 유지하면서 **수요를 촉진해야 하는 과제**에 직면해 있으며, 이는 다양한 산업에서 **잠재적인 구조조정**으로 이어질 수 있습니다.
* 💡 중국의 성장 목표와 향후 5개년 계획을 관찰하는 것은 특히 **2030년까지 GDP를 두 배로 늘리는 것**을 목표로 하고 있으며, 목표를 **5%에서 보다 현실적인 4.5%로 조정**하는 논의가 진행되고 있는 가운데 매우 중요한 일이 될 것입니다.
* 💰 장기 금리가 **2.04%까지 하락**한 채권 시장의 현재 상황은 장기 전략과 내수에 대한 우려를 제기하며 중국 정부의 신중한 의사 결정이 필요함을 시사합니다.
* 🎮 투자 기회 측면에서 홍콩 주식 시장은 규제가 완화되면서 **특히 게임 부문에서 주목**을 받고 있으며, 중국 본토의 제조업 중심과는 대조적인 모습을 보이고 있습니다.

From our country's perspective, easing consumption to some extent is the way for us to survive; otherwise, everything will just flow out. It may get hit a little harder for a while. From my viewpoint on stocks, the strong performance of bonds feels somewhat unstable. The Chinese government seems to be approaching a decisive moment; we are nearly at a critical point. How many companies are ranked first globally? It’s like asking which sports are winning gold medals in the Olympics. In our manufacturing sector, we should be able to say we are number one. However, from what I've seen recently, CATL is incorporating AI, and I’m shocked at how dramatically productivity is improving. The degree of improvement is quite significant. They are successfully transitioning their growth model and are excelling in manufacturing. China is no longer just the world's factory; that notion seems completely incorrect.

At this rate, it looks like China will become the world's factory. The ripple effect of this is likely to be significant, which is probably why it's being described as a daunting industry. It would be great if you could mention the current state of affairs. 

This refers to China's penetration into overseas markets by industry or product category. At the forefront, we see solar energy and LCDs, where China has completely taken control. Once supply issues are resolved, they will have a firm grip. There are also various industries and products that are trying to catch up from behind. 

From my perspective, the Chinese government prioritizes employment, but it's not just that. When considering employment, overseas export market share, self-sufficiency, and intermediate goods together, I think they will feel quite proud of the charts you see now, as they continue to expand and gain market share overseas.

When looking at the issue from a national perspective, the primary concern is that, for countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, and Japan—export competitors—it seems nearly impossible to completely contain China through tariffs or other means. Given the openness of markets outside the United States and the strategies employed by these countries, the situation appears quite threatening. While we cannot discuss every industry, it is important to note that, currently in China, through subsidies and support, or in recent years via manufacturing loans, there has been significant investment in intermediate goods and capital goods. Notably, this includes semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, AI, and, of course, the electric vehicle battery sector, along with various industries related to new environmental technologies. Additionally, there are ongoing restructuring efforts in shipbuilding and materials industries, focusing on companies within those sectors.

As we are increasingly focusing on overseas expansion, it seems that at a national level, we are not becoming a consumer country like the United States. Instead, we continue to adopt a manufacturing strategy from the perspective of a follower. This has recently become evident. Individual companies are struggling; their margins and profits are facing pressure due to low-cost competition both domestically and internationally. In an attempt to compete on price, they are continuously lowering their unit prices, which inevitably harms their profits. Unfortunately, even companies that we recommended investing in, which are leading firms in manufacturing, have seen their stock prices decline significantly. However, when we look at their overall R&D efforts and the subsidies or loans they have received, the speed at which they are expanding is quite alarming. This situation is becoming a serious concern for our country.

I think we are in a situation where we are continuously being held back. However, China is now emerging in this way, meaning that while consumption is not increasing, productivity is improving, manufacturing competitiveness is strengthening, and supply overcapacity is deepening, leading to worsening deflation. It creates a situation where products cannot avoid being released into the market. 

From our country's perspective, it would be ideal for China to change its supply strategy at this second stage to effectively address the supply overcapacity, or to significantly stimulate demand. However, in my view, both consumption and investment will take some time to recover overall. In this stage, when we look at what we've purchased, it seems they have already moved beyond supply overcapacity and are entering an initial phase of restructuring or are considering subsidies.

It seems that we can only strategically look for industries where there can be a somewhat fair competition. Industries like shipbuilding, solar energy, and batteries are all determined by the pace of restructuring in the leading sectors. Therefore, it's difficult to assess demand. We seem to be in a situation where we can only find ideas from the stories of these industries failing or changing their strategies. In the past, it seems that the actions and strategies of China received a lot of applause worldwide. Since the 1990s, people have been saying, Wow, they can produce goods so cheaply. Well done! There was a sentiment that Japan had fallen behind, and China was the new focus. That was nearly 20 years ago. Now, it seems that the world no longer desires to produce things even cheaper, as we are all struggling.

It's too serious, so the fact that we're talking about a 100% tariff represents the situation we're in. Both Europe and the United States are in a similar position. As for China, I wish the reports would stop coming in. But if this continues, what will happen in the end? This is just a different topic, but I've asked everyone I've met about their thoughts on the U.S. presidential election. They all acknowledge that the relationship between the two countries has crossed the Rubicon, and it's difficult for the political systems or regimes to get close like they used to. Regardless of who wins, it seems everyone believes that the so-called anti-communism mode will not change. Interestingly, about 15 people I've met generally say that they would rather have Trump. The reason I bring this up is to ask why they think that.

I think that customs duties will be set high initially, and there will be significant fluctuations. However, based on past experiences, there seems to be some room for negotiation. Secondly, it appears that the area China is most cautious about is Europe. As for the United States, it seems that the situation there is already somewhat lost. The overall exposure of Europe and its stance are very important. If Trump is elected, he might shake things up a bit, potentially in a traditional ally format that could lead to stagnation. Biden and Harris's strategy, on the other hand, seems to have a tendency to take some risks, which could create some gaps in the relationship with Europe. It seems that the financial sector has some expectations regarding this. Regardless of the outcome, the risk indicators suggest that Trump will likely be somewhat aggressive in the first half of next year, and starting in the second half, there may be some room for negotiations on both sides.

However, the strategy that China is currently adopting for the next three years will still focus more on production and advanced manufacturing rather than consumption. This will involve continuous cost reduction and value-for-money strategies to offset tariffs. Therefore, the notion that China will inevitably lose seems to increase the likelihood that countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Germany, which are pursuing similar strategies, will face significant challenges in restructuring their value chains.

Next year, I believe it will be important to closely observe how China sets its growth targets and formulates its five-year plan. It will be interesting to see whether China will retreat and continue to strengthen its capabilities while engaging in a strong competition, or if it will truly embrace a confrontational approach. These two possibilities will likely become clearer next year, and one surprising aspect is that many people in China...

The economic growth target is not just a simple number. China has set its growth target for this year at 5%, and there is a lot of discussion about whether this will be adjusted downward next year. What this means is that the market is not reacting to short-term stimulus measures; rather, this year, China's growth seems to be around 4.7% to 4.8%, making the 5% target quite difficult to achieve. If the growth target is missed, realistically, I believe that based on current leading indicators in the real estate sector, a target of 4.5% might be more realistic. If that is the case, what does it imply? China has a long-term goal of doubling its GDP by 2030, which is a significant and ambitious target. The years 2030 and 2049 are critical points for China.

Then, the CAGR needs to consistently reach around 4.6 to 4.7 in the future. Lowering it to 4.5 next year essentially means we are pulling down our long-term goals. We are showing that even if we struggle for three to four years, we will pursue a strategy focused on the sophistication of manufacturing and aiming for first place in the Olympics. This is represented by the 4.5% target. However, if we aim for the same 5% next year, it suggests that the Chinese government may be looking more towards fundamental policy directions or stimulus measures. Therefore, it is important to closely observe the realistic difference between the proposed 4.5% and 5% until the National People's Congress in March next year. This applies both to domestic companies and in our perspective on China. We already understand that the situation is not good, and if it continues to decline, it could mean that President Xi Jinping is advocating for a downward leveling.

I will continue to pursue my own manufacturing industry, even if it is difficult for now, while developing my skills. My support base mainly consists of middle-class and lower-income individuals, and I intend to show that I can progress steadily in a modest manner. This could be a representation of 4.5%. On the other hand, in the case of 5%, realistically, the central government still has some funds, which could provide an opportunity to push harder. Therefore, it is important to closely observe the growth targets for next year. Additionally, starting next year, China will set its new five-year plan. As you know, China has been focusing on increasing self-sufficiency in intermediate and capital goods, emphasizing that they will produce everything themselves. They also aim to strengthen their capabilities in sectors like semiconductors despite the pressures they face.

In the five-year plan, we might unexpectedly need to adjust our strategies a bit. For example, since we are taking some time, realistically, we might need to develop other industries as well. In other words, we may have to undergo structural adjustments in industries like batteries or solar energy, which are currently facing oversupply. Given that we are in a situation where there is no money, particularly in local government funding and subsidies, it might be practical to reconsider the industrial plans in the five-year strategy. When looking at the competing industries domestically, this could serve as a meaningful opportunity for reflection. The reason I am sharing this somewhat seriously is that if you look at the recent bond rates in China, they have dropped to 2.04%. It's hard to believe, considering that China's growth rate is around 5%. This refers to the long-term government bond rate for 10-year bonds in China.

The long-term U.S. bonds are not as active as in the past, and now the international 10-year bond rates have recently nearly matched those of Japan. Japan and China's interest rates are converging, creating a sense of generational difference. China has announced a growth rate of about 4.5%, but this assumes a deflation rate of over 2%. Given the current situation, where the deflator is negative, the bond market seems to be in a bubble. When I visited recently, I met with people managing Chinese bonds. The bond market had been in a bullish phase, which is good, but there are challenges here as well. The money is all stuck in the banking sector, and it’s not easy to find safe margins or additional methods for managing this money. Currently, all the money is flowing into bonds, which are defensive and consist mainly of bond-type assets.

The problem is that there is some overheating, but what is certain is that the reason interest rates have dropped this much is that the strategy presented by the Chinese government itself may lead to a further decline in domestic demand, and prices are expected to be lower. There is no confidence in the long-term strategy, which is why interest rates continue to fall. The fact that long-term interest rates are decreasing indicates that there may still be some aftereffects. Therefore, I am currently watching for long-term bond rates to stabilize or rise to some extent. Given this situation, it seems that the Chinese government is approaching a point where a decision needs to be made. If they continue to stimulate manufacturing with a chasing mindset, the characteristics of the Chinese people may lead them to tighten their belts even more, saving money as they did in the past.

Survival instincts are present, right? Yes, yes. If you meet individual Chinese people, you will find that they are all diligent and save money. In a way, the citizens are living like that, and it seems to be a very important time to strategize. From our country's perspective, loosening consumer spending is a way for us to survive; otherwise, everything will spill out. Yes, yes, it’s just being hit a little harder. Next year is going to be very important; we are almost at a critical point. I really believe that. From my perspective as someone who looks at stocks, the strong performance of bonds seems a bit unsettling. If the yield on Chinese 10-year bonds is in the low 2% range, would you believe it? When you hear something like that, you might think, Is it really that low?

If you think about this from the perspective of the Chinese government, they might be wondering why they aren't borrowing even with rates in the low 2% range. It could lead to pressure on them to borrow and do something, given the current situation. The shocking thing is that the decline in China's ROIC and ROE investment returns has been faster than the drop in interest rates. In the last three years, actual interest rates have continued to rise, with inflation dropping being a prime example. The investment returns for the companies I invest in, looking at ROIC and ROE over the past four years, have decreased at a very rapid pace. Since the speed of the decline in interest rates has been slower than that, it's only natural that they can't find anything to invest in, leading to a situation where they are just standing still. But if you wonder why they don't realize this...

I don't know, but I guess they are currently in the process of making it. In the past, considering the low birth rates in Northeast Asia and how Korea has been copied and followed in various ways, Northeast Asia has spent a lot on real estate, healthcare, and housing, leading to significant polarization. We've studied these issues extensively. From China's long-term perspective, in order to prevent this, they need to control real estate. If they manage real estate, local governments and many enterprises in China that have been flexing their financial muscles will inevitably have to reduce their debt in a process of deleveraging. Finding investment opportunities in this process is not easy. So, it's a different topic, but as I'm filming here today, the Hong Kong stock market is rising. When I went to China recently, I mentioned that Hong Kong stocks seemed to be something worth investing in, which is quite ironic.

You mentioned Hong Kong stocks because big tech platform companies in China have faced significant pressure over the past three to four years, especially Alibaba and Tencent, which have been regulated in terms of gaming and platform businesses. I believe that this regulation has essentially come to an end, and instead, there is a shift towards easing restrictions on these industries. The perspective of foreign investors may differ, but locally, there have been discussions about focusing on blue-chip Hong Kong stocks. The government seems to be creating an environment conducive to investment in these sectors, and entrepreneurs also need to find ways to adapt. The venture capital industry, for instance, has been struggling, so to foster growth, the government may have to loosen restrictions primarily on platform companies. However, if they continue to restrict these platform companies significantly, their profitability will also be impacted.

It doesn't feel like the past, and there aren't many businesses that can be pursued, but currently, there are opportunities in the local market, especially looking at big tech platforms. I recently saw a game that was incredibly successful; it was just unbelievable. Many people around us were saying how well it was made. It seems that there are opportunities in the gaming sector in China, especially for those listed in Hong Kong. The stress seems to have shifted a bit. Yes, the Hong Kong stock market mainly has consumer stocks, big tech platforms, and gaming stocks. In contrast, the mainland is more focused on manufacturing, with companies like CAT and BYD making up 70%. So, while the mainland is centered on manufacturing, Hong Kong focuses more on services and the internet. Of course, we also feel embarrassed and sorry about the regulatory backlash that has occurred in that area.

For years now, looking at Alibaba's stock price really makes me sigh. From a local perspective, it's disappointing that companies in the private sector are pushing firms like Tencent while the smaller companies are feeling quite suppressed. It seems like they're once again favoring platform companies. Just a few years ago, the gaming industry was thriving, but recently, it's been quite the opposite. They made a big splash, especially with console games, and the results have been concentrated there. Now, it feels like a win-win situation, almost like a medal-winning moment. This time, the regions that opened up were tourist spots in China during the recent Chuseok holiday. So, this naturally boosts travel consumption, which is to be expected, especially for the struggling industries.

완전히 거꾸로 돌아가고 있는 상황이죠. 우리나라 입장에서 보면 부러운 부분도 있고요. 현재 이 주제가 오랜만에 다시 주목받고 있는 것 같습니다. 무서운 산업이라는 주제를 가지고 한 가지 더 질문드리고 싶은데요. 이 영상을 보시는 분들은 투자의 관점에서도 보시겠지만, 국내 제조업에 종사하시는 분들이라면 더욱 관심을 가질 수밖에 없는 주제입니다. 중국이 이대로 간다면, 우리는 지금 사업을 어떻게 해야 할지 고민하고 계실 것 같아요. 이 상황을 어떻게 바라보면 좋을까요?

중국이 계속 이런식으로 나오면 한국 기업 다죽습니다⎮김경환 하나증권 파트장

효친님들을 위한 바이사이드 애널리스트 이효석 매니지스트입니다. 
운용 경험을 살려서 변화된 세상에서 생존을 위한 투자전략을 리서치하고 있습니다.
비즈니스/광고/협업 문의 : contact@hs-academy.kr


이효석아카데미

글로벌 제조업에서 중국의 우위

중국은 생존을 위해 소비를 완화하고 있으며 경제 성장의 중요한 순간에 다가서고 있습니다.

CATL과 같은 기업이 주도하는 중국의 제조업 부문은 AI 통합을 통해 극적으로 변화하고 있으며, 중국이 세계의 공장이라는 관념에 도전하고 있습니다.

특히 태양 에너지와 LCD를 중심으로 한 중국의 공격적인 해외 시장 진출과 중간재 및 자본재에 대한 막대한 투자는 수출 경쟁국들에게 위협적인 상황을 조성하고 있습니다.

중국의 부상하는 역할과 글로벌 영향력

중국은 생산성과 제조업 경쟁력이 향상되면서 공급 과잉이 심화되고 디플레이션이 악화되고 있습니다.

중국의 현 단계에서는 공급 전략의 변화나 대대적인 수요 부양책이 필요하지만 소비와 투자 회복에는 시간이 걸릴 것으로 예상됩니다.

더 저렴한 생산에 대한 전 세계의 열망이 바뀌었고, 미국과 중국의 관계가 긴장된 상황에서 내년에는 공격적인 행동과 협상의 가능성이 있습니다.

향후 3년간 중국의 전략은 비용 절감과 관세 상쇄를 목표로 생산과 첨단 제조에 우선순위를 둘 것입니다.

중국의 올해 성장률 목표는 5%로 설정되어 있지만, 현재 경제 지표를 고려할 때 현실적으로 달성 가능한 목표는 4.

다가오는 5개년 계획은 반도체와 같은 주요 부문의 역량 강화에 중점을 두고 중간재와 자본재의 자급률을 높이는 데 초점을 맞출 것입니다.

5개년 계획은 배터리 및 태양 에너지와 같이 공급 과잉에 직면한 다른 산업을 개발하는 등 예상치 못한 조정이 필요할 수 있습니다.

중국의 장기 국채 금리는 5%의 성장률에도 불구하고 2.

04%까지 하락하여 채권 시장에 거품이 있을 수 있음을 시사하고 있습니다.

중국 정부의 이러한 전략은 내수 침체와 물가 하락으로 이어질 수 있어 금리의 장기적인 안정성에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

중국의 경제 딜레마와 투자 환경

중국 정부는 투자 수익률이 급격히 하락하면서 저금리 기조에도 불구하고 차입 압박을 받고 있습니다.

부동산과 의료 분야에 집중하면서 양극화가 심각해졌고, 부동산을 통제하는 것이 부채를 줄이는 데 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 보입니다.

최근 홍콩 주식 시장의 상승과 대기업에 대한 규제 완화로 새로운 투자 기회가 창출될 수 있지만, 이들 산업에 대한 정부의 접근 방식이 수익성에 중요한 역할을 할 것입니다.

홍콩과 중국의 현재 비즈니스 기회

홍콩의 주식 시장은 소비자, 기술, 게임 주식에 초점을 맞추고 있으며, 특히 대형 기술 및 게임 분야에서 새로운 기회가 생겨나고 있습니다.

반면 본토는 CAT와 BYD와 같은 기업이 주도하는 제조업 중심입니다.

최근 규제 강화와 민간 부문 중소기업의 어려움으로 인해 어려운 환경이 조성된 반면, 중국 내 관광지의 재개장으로 여행 소비가 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.