주식 트레이딩 전략: 예산 시즌을 위한 10가지 핵심 포인트

### 예산 거래의 핵심 포인트
* 💰 예산은 **이전 임시 예산과 정부의 명확한 방향**에 따라 결정되므로 놓친 기회를 만회하려고 하지 마세요.
* 📊 인도 시장의 **높은 GDP 대비 부채 비율**로 인해 **높은 변동성**이 예상됩니다.
* 📉 변동성이 큰 시장에서는 **손절매가 예상 수준 이하로 발동**될 수 있으므로 예산 기간 동안 초과 거래를 피하세요.
* 💵 과거 데이터에 따르면 **10% 조정이 자주 발생**하므로 잠재적인 시장 하락을 활용하기 위해 포트폴리오에서 현금 비중을 **20%로 유지**하세요.
* 📈 **첫 번째 지지선에서 시작**하여 그에 따라 포트폴리오를 조정하면서 **지지선에서 시장을 매수**하세요.
* 🔄 고평가된 테마에서 저평가된 테마로 이동하는 섹터 로테이션을 고려하세요(**예: IRFC에서 민간 은행으로 이동**).
* ⌛ 특히 명확한 지지선이 없는 불확실한 시장에서는 **'관망' 전략이 최선의 전략**일 때가 있습니다.
* 🛡 위험도가 높은 시장 환경에서는 **방어주 매수를 고려하세요**. 이러한 주식은 **시장 침체기에 좋은 성과**를 내는 경향이 있기 때문입니다.

아캇 사스타브는 트레이더에게 예산 중에 오버트레이딩하지 말고 저평가된 종목에 집중하며 높은 시장 변동성에 대비하라고 조언합니다.

hi everyone welcome to today's video. So many of you are excited to trade about the budget. Trading means that okay before budget I'll buy this stock. During budget I'll buy these stocks and it will give you massive rally and P P. Please understand things fundamentally this might be a major mistake that you might make. So on this video I'm going to help you understand through 10 very simple points what is it that you should be doing in terms of trading the budget in case you are trying to do that. So let me present the entire story in 10 very simple easy to understand points. Now for people who do not know about me, my name is akat sastav. I graduated from incad worked in Finance Management Consulting top tier firms have been managing a fairly big portfolio for the last several years and now I run my own hitge fund. So whatever I learn by speaking with the rich I bring it to retail investors in very simple No Nonsense manner. So in case you like you can

subscribe to the channel. Also, since we are on the topic of the budget, it is important to note that our household expenses or household budget can get deeply impacted by uncertain events. For example, the loss of a loved one. So, on that note, let me introduce you to the partners of today's video, which is Policy Bazaar. It is an excellent platform for buying health and term insurance. By paying just 600 to 700 rupees per month, you can get a term insurance cover worth 2 crores. For health insurance, you can get a cover of 1 crore rupee just by spending 300 to 400 rupees per month. Please note that the premium on health and term insurance is going very high. The medical inflation in India is close to 14%, so the sooner you do it, the better it is for you. Through Policy Bazaar, you can get a 30-minute claim assistance in the event of any tragedy and get up to 25% discount on health insurance plans. You can get up to 10%

discount on term plans. You can compare up to 51 plans and pick the plan that is best for you. So do check out the links in the description and comment box. Now with that said, let's move over to the main video. Okay, so 10 simple points. Point number one is that people had missed the election rally. I think it was around third when election results were announced. There was a dip in the market. People missed buying that. And on Fourth, the market rallied and they missed the rally, right? So, but you get the concept now. Those people are trying to make up election rally we missed, but we will now go and trade in the budget and we will make up for the losses that we incurred in that election rally. Please don't do that because this is the actual budget. An interim budget had already been provided in the past. So we already have a clear direction as to which way the government is going to go in terms of its budget allocation. So the first key point is that don't try to

make up for the election rally. You might actually end up making losses. Point one, point two. If you look at the macro data, what you will figure out is that there is likely to be very high volatility in the Indian markets going forward. Why is that the case? Macro data for India. So, for example, if you take a look at something called as India's government debt to GDP ratio, you will quickly realize that India's debt to GDP is still very, very high. Now, some of you might start China, give the higher US, give the higher, etc., etc. True, I'm not trying to deny that. All I'm simply trying to tell you is that India's debt to GDP is currently very high, which means that the markets are likely to be volatile because debt to GDP simply means leverage. Right now, if Chinese government has taken a lot of loan, Indian government has taken a lot of loan, US government has taken a lot of loan, then the markets will not rise like this, okay? Markets rise, markets might rise like this, okay? So, there will be a lot of volatility.

volatility means next. It is coming down, etc., etc., so that volatility can be problematic, especially for inexperienced investors, and especially for Traders, which brings me to point number three that don't overtrade due to budget. Now, mostly Traders trade as per their stop losses. Stop losses, you know what you are buying. Let's say ITC stock at hypothetically 100 rupees, okay, and you have put the stop loss at 90 rupees. If ITC falls to 90 rupees, I will sell. Okay, many of times what that happens is that ITC directly falls from 100 rupees to let's say 85 rupees, right, and your stop loss gets triggered, but there are no counter buyers at the other side. So, this is called as triggering of the stop loss below your value that you have perceived, and this can lead to massive losses, right, so this happens more and more in volatile in environment. Similarly, when you place orders, and I was reading like about this on Twitter that a lot of Traders place their order through their

Brokers, but we got allocation at some other price that we had perceived, and that was the fault of the broker. Now, fault if you sit and overtrade. This is the third key important point. Now, what is a better approach? A better approach is called as keeping 20% cash. Okay, so now what is the meaning of keeping 20% cash? So, if portfolio is worth 1 CR, okay, then right now you should keep 20 lakhs as your opportunity fund, right? Opportunity fund. Why am I saying this? That why is it that I am actually giving you this logic, right? And this is going to be very powerful. This is something that I discussed on my member Community also. In case you are someone who is looking to learn about Stock Investing properly sequentially in a step-wise manner, I run a course also. Live batches starting, these batches get filled out very very quickly because we have limited seats. This is a live course. The completion rate of my courses is 95%. All the investors who come to study, they actually completed watch the course.

multiple times, and the feedback has been exceptionally good. You guys can go and check it out yourself. The link is in the description. Now here, see, I'll tell you very, very honestly why that 20% cash strategy makes a lot of sense. And now let me explain it. So, see, basically what you will find out is that CH August October 2021, right? So you will see this one 10% dip here, right? So this is dip one, right? 10%. Yeah, another dip at 10%, key. Another dip at 10%, key. Yeah, another dip at 10%, key. And this was roughly 10% dip. So, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. So, five times in the last how many years, roughly like 2 and a half, 3 years, right? Time frame. There have been five dips where the market has corrected by more than 10%, okay? Right now, where we are, if you draw the technicals, what you'll see is that this is the long-term

trading channel of Nifty. Okay, it has broken this down. Okay, and where does the first support come for Nifty? It comes here, and the second support comes here. So, the chances are there is a good probability or a very high probability that the markets will fall to this point. A there is also a decent probability that it will fall to point B. So, investing, you should do buk investing at point B. You should do some investing at Point A. Okay, but this, you know, budget time, we, you know, keep on trading, it makes no sense whatsoever. This is like, you know, there is just no support here, right? And there is no macro Factor, at least as of now. Macro factors can be generated in the market. I don't know, and that could Propel the market even further. I'm not denying that possibility, but the chances or probability game in the stock market, there is a higher likelihood that the markets are going to fall at this range. So, right, I mean, that makes more sense. That is a much better opportunity, right? I mean, everyone is

sitting right now budget then we will you know go and invest money or like you know do this and do that or we'll wait for the budget to get over it does not matter from that angle uh and having that 20% cash strategy is a very powerful strategy especially when the market is at an all-time high and it is trading without a support right very very high chance that it will fall right I'm not trying to make you panic all I'm simply trying to tell you is maybe like wait for one 2 weeks 3 weeks one month and you will get to buy the market at support so that is probably the best time to buy it again right in bulk that is what I would sort of suggest to you next key point is that you need to buy the market at support all the time so this is just a repeat from the previous point that I was explaining for example this is a trading channel right so this is support one for the market this line right this is the

support line this will become support two most likely right and in fact support three. Support two and this will be support three then you'll have fourth support here so right if the market falls to this point. Now this is unlikely to happen right unless there is like some massive negative news or some kind of uncertain thing that has come out but buying your buying should start from here and you have to plan your portfolio accordingly and therefore learning how to cultivate and build a portfolio is absolutely critical. Now again this is something that I teach on my courses cash flow manage how do you build a portfolio using index mutual funds direct stocks small cap midcap how to target a particular return so all these strategies are discussed. Point number five that there are certain overvalued stocks. I have spoken about this on this video also so for example up IR f c right so irfc is here now here what is happening right so the stock went from 31 rupees all the way till 217 almost seven times right and have

the profits revenues gone up seven times double right this is here and double right so it's not as if ke you know the the PE of the stock is making sense right this is a real stock. This is primarily driven by regulation. Uh public sector Enterprises government 43 44 St stock at a market cap of 2.68 lakh. It doesn't make sense in the market. There is something called a sector rotation right so sector rotation right sector rotation. There are themes right for example there is rail theme okay right. It will be made to go like very very high why because F you know operators so they will keep on buying this stock right and they will just pump it up right okay then what would they do right once their money is made they will they will cut their positions here right and then what will they do whatever money they are getting they will rotate that money into some other theme for example just private Banks key theme is undervalued right so they might pick a theme which is overvalued cut their positions and

rotate that money into an undervalued theme. Now, which brings us to the next point that, hey, buy undervalued themes, not overvalued them. Now, what do I mean by undervalued themes? So, for example, consider K Mahindra Bank. You know what MRA fell by 3.5 or 3.3%. See guys, basically, the way sector rotation works is that the money moves from overvalued themes to undervalued themes, okay? And overvalued themes undervalued themes, under you, under you, okay? So, that is what is happening on K Mahindra Bank and the likes. Now, there is nothing wrong with the banking system right now, right? Take a look at the fundamentals of K Mahindra Bank, for example. P ratio, P ratio was 18, or right now it is 18. When was the last time the P ratio of K Mahindra Bank was 18, 19? It was when banking crisis was going on in America, right? This was roughly one and a half decades ago. Now, natural question comes for

example since 2020 right the business has doubled there is no problem since 2020 the profits have almost tripled there is no problem so problem right the problem or the simple thing that is happening on banks like mahra that's it right why so that themes like and it flows into private Banks. I'm not saying that MRA Bank cannot fall but that is something that you could consider right so that's a simple point I will tell you here now. Next Point comes that basically that you can sometimes the best strategy in the market is wait and watch strategy now the meaning of wait and watch strategy is we will go buy something or we'll go sell something in the market you don't need to do that all the time especially in markets like these AB we are trading without a support we are here there is no support as of now so does not make sense on the flip side there will be investors 2022 and sitting on 40% 50% profit on my portfolio 60 70% so right I mean Market.

looks high. See, there are macro triggers left, which is primarily an interest rate cut which is about to happen. So, there is no point in selling also, right? So, this is just a wait and watch type of a market. Please understand that this is one of the most important decisions you have to take regarding your portfolio. Now, whether to build more positions or cut some positions. You don't necessarily need to cut if you don't have better use of that money, okay? So, this is what I will say next is that you could consider buying defensive stocks. Now, I'm not saying defense stock, I'm saying defensive stocks. An example would be that, for example, in 2020, H was probably the only stock, and H and friends, they were the only stocks that continued to give a run-up despite the entire market falling. Why? Because these are defensive stocks. You require these types of things for daily use. I've been speaking about consumer durable stocks for the last 8 months. SW poool have given very good run-up in that time frame. Why? Because this

was a rebounding industry. This was defensive in nature, so to say. These are regular use products, so to say, and people are going and they were bouncing back from a negative time, so to say, right? So, the point is ABB, right? I mean, because the market, the risk in the market is high, the money will get rotated to defensive stocks. There is a very high likelihood this will happen more and more in the future because the bond market or the long-term bond market has just eroded, right? I mean, like fundamental problems there, right? I'll make a separate video on that, but to cut the long story short, there are issues with the bond market. So, therefore, investors have no choice but to move money between high risk to medium risk to low-risk stocks, right? So, defensive stocks are low-risk stocks. When market risk, then defensive stocks are always going to rally, at least for a substantial future. Then comes the next point that don't do FNO, okay? FNO is a sub-segment of trading, a F tax, right, and India. It does not make

you know logical sense. You have to take a look at your after-tax return. Number two, as I was explaining, that the volatility on the market is really, really high, and FNO Traders are the worst hit by volatility. So, there is no point in touching. Please stay away. It does not make much sense. Final point is that please understand when interest rates are going to cut, that will be the major rally point for the market. Next, this is what it looks like, and it is most likely going to happen. Expectations are that US is going to cut the interest rate towards the end of the year. India will follow. Other countries will also follow. January, February. So, next 3-4 months are going to most likely be sideways. You don't need to do much, right? I mean just keep pruning your portfolio, keep adding good undervalued stocks, keep selling overvalued stocks. Have confidence in your investing style. If you don't have confidence to buy like good things which are undervalued, you'll not make money when these things turn.

around so that's a simple point. So right, this is my simple kind of viewpoint, which I was able to express. And also, a quick reminder that please check out the links for. And also, a quick reminder, please check out the links for buying health and term insurance through Policy Bazaar in the description and comment box. Hope you enjoyed the video. If you did, do press the like button, and I'll see you soon.

Buy Private Banks before Budget? (10 Important points to know about)

Akshat Shrivastava

예산 기간 동안 거래하기 위한 팁

특히 이전 손실을 만회하려는 경우 예산을 기준으로 트레이딩하는 것은 위험할 수 있습니다.

정부의 예산 배분 방향은 이미 추경을 통해 명확히 알 수 있습니다.

예산안과 같은 이벤트에 따라 매매할 것이 아니라 펀더멘털을 이해하는 것이 중요합니다.

불확실한 이벤트가 가계 지출에 미치는 영향을 고려하고 건강 및 정기 보험에 대한 투자를 고려하세요.

정책 바자에서는 할인 혜택과 신속한 보험금 청구 지원을 제공하는 다양한 보험 플랜을 제공합니다.

인도 시장에서의 투자 변동성 관리

인도의 높은 GDP 대비 정부 부채 비율로 인해 시장 변동성이 예상되며, 이는 경험이 없는 투자자와 트레이더에게 어려움을 줄 수 있습니다.

시장 변동성으로 인한 오버트레이딩은 큰 손실을 초래할 수 있으므로 현금 기회 펀드를 20% 유지하는 등 보다 보수적인 접근 방식을 채택하는 것이 중요합니다.

시장을 효과적으로 탐색하고자 하는 분들에게는 순차적 주식 투자에 대한 라이브 강좌를 추천합니다.

고점 장세에서 20% 현금 전략의 힘

20% 현금 전략은 지난 몇 년 동안 시장이 5번 10% 이상 조정된 역사적 패턴을 고려할 때 합리적입니다.

충동적으로 매매하기보다는 시장이 하락할 때 포인트 B와 포인트 A에 투자하는 것이 좋습니다.

시장을 지지하는 수준에서 매수하는 것이 투자하기 가장 좋은 시기로 강조됩니다.

주식 포트폴리오 구축 및 관리를 위한 팁

잠재적인 시장 하락을 고려해 현 시점에 매수를 시작하여 포트폴리오를 효과적으로 계획하세요.

특정 수익률을 목표로 인덱스 뮤추얼 펀드와 종목 선택을 포함한 포트폴리오 구축 전략을 배워보세요.

고평가된 종목은 피하고 K마힌드라 은행의 사례와 같이 섹터 로테이션 시 저평가된 테마를 집중 매수하세요.

MRA 은행은 2020년 이후 수익이 크게 증가하여 다른 민간 은행에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있습니다.

현재와 같은 고위험 시장에서는 특히 금리 인하가 예정된 상황에서 투자 결정을 내릴 때 '관망' 전략을 채택하는 것이 중요합니다.

시장의 높은 위험과 저위험 옵션으로 자금이 회전할 가능성이 있으므로 방어주에 대한 투자를 고려하는 것이 좋습니다.

현재 인도 시장 상황에서는 FNO(선물 및 옵션) 거래를 피하는 것이 좋습니다.

특히 시장 변동성이 높기 때문에 투자를 평가할 때는 세후 수익률을 고려해야 합니다.

FNO 트레이더는 특히 이러한 변동성의 영향을 많이 받습니다.

미국과 전 세계적으로 예상되는 금리 인하로 인해 향후 몇 달 동안 횡보장이 이어질 수 있습니다.

투자 스타일에 대한 자신감을 유지하면서 저평가된 종목을 추가하고 고평가된 종목을 매도하여 투자 포트폴리오를 조정하는 것이 좋습니다.