10억 달러 규모의 스타트업 구축하기 시장 패턴 설명

### 10억 달러 규모의 스타트업 구축하기: 복잡성 과학의 패턴
* 🌱 복잡성 과학자로서 저는 자연 생태계와 비즈니스 생태계의 유사점을 탐구하여 **하룻밤 사이에 수십억 달러 규모의 스타트업**을 탄생시킬 수 있는 패턴을 발견합니다.
* 📊 저는 기업가들이 성공적인 벤처를 구축하는 데 도움이 될 수 있는 **시장의 반복되는 패턴**을 인식하는 것이 중요하다고 강조합니다.
* 🔍 제가 파악한 5가지 주요 패턴은 **기존 시장 위에 새로운 시장 창출, 시장 확장 서비스 제공, 시장 트렌드에 편승, 시장 교차점 진출, 아날로그 서비스를 디지털화하여 마찰 없는 시장 만들기** 등입니다.
* 🍔 새로운 시장을 구축한 대표적인 사례는 패스트푸드와 캐주얼 다이닝의 요소를 결합하여 **패스트 캐주얼 다이닝 카테고리를 구축**하여 **10억 달러 규모의 기업**으로 성장한 **Chipotle**입니다.
* 🥗 이와 유사하게, 홀푸드는 **유기농 제품에 집중**하여 식료품 업계에 혁명을 일으켜 오랜 기간 지속되어 온 식료품 시장에 **새로운 카테고리**를 효과적으로 창출했습니다.
* 💡 이러한 기업들은 기존 시장을 기반으로 소비자들에게 자사 제품에 대해 더 쉽게 알릴 수 있게 되었으며, 이는 **제한된 자원을 가진 스타트업에게 매우 중요**합니다.
* 🚀 전반적으로 이러한 시장 역학을 이해하면 **경쟁이 치열한 산업에서 자신의 이름을 알리고자 하는 창업가들의 성공 가능성**을 크게 높일 수 있습니다.

10억 달러 규모의 스타트업을 구축하려면 기존 시장 위에 새로운 시장을 만들어야 합니다.

As a complexity scientist, I love to study markets, whether they're natural ecosystems or business ecosystems. And today we're going to talk about something really fun; it's one of my favorite topics, which is how to build a billion-dollar start-up almost overnight. And when I realized, when I studied natural markets, I realized that the natural ecosystems are very similar to business ecosystems, whatever they are, whatever sector, industry. And there's certain dynamics that play out over and over again in a natural ecosystem as they do in a business ecosystem. So what I realized is that when you want to build a billion-dollar start-up overnight, well, almost overnight, is that you have to look at patterns within a market, whatever that market is. And what I realized is there are certain patterns that play out over and over again that I want to share with you because, obviously, I'm also interested in building a billion-dollar start-up overnight. So here's what I looked at. I analyzed them and looked at it from a pattern

perspective, and that's what you do as a complexity scientist because you're studying nonlinear systems. So, you're always looking at simple rules that evolve and create complex patterns. So, if you're looking at it as the market evolves, you might see a lot of complexity - whatever the market is - whether it's a natural ecosystem or business, but in reality, there are simple patterns that play out. Some of the things I looked at, and we're going to some mathematics today, obviously you don't have to know any math, we're going to be actually graphing some stuff, but five common themes or five different things that I've seen patterns play out in - the first one is, if you want to build a billion-dollar start-up almost overnight, you have to build the new market on top of an existing market, and I'll go into full detail later. The second one is, you want to serve the market expansion, and that sometimes happens - not all the time.

but, depending on the pattern, if you see it and you want to serve that market expansion and I'll go into full detail. The third is one of my favorites, which is to ride and markets. If the market is going up you want to ride it then it's a matter of when you exit and what I mean by exit is you either get acquired or go IPO. The fourth one is actually very interesting and I will discuss a great entrepreneur who has actually intersected three of these five patterns and we'll get to that next. The fourth one is launching into market intersection and of course the fifth one is what happens a lot in Silicon Valley and Silicon Alley - attacking a market in making it more frictionless and usually that happens when you're taking an analog service or product and converting it into a digital product. A perfect sample is the music industry. We went from 8-track to cassettes to CDs to now everything is digital.

and all these different business models are coming out with, for example, Spotify streaming service or Pandora. And so what you're looking at is when you're creating a frictionless market, you're reducing the inefficiency in that market, which means that you're reducing the cost of whatever that is. So in the music business, you're actually making the distribution component frictionless because it's digital - bits and bytes, and you cannot compete with that. So what happens is the cost of distribution is reduced, and now because it's reduced, now you can actually expand the entire market. Really what's happening on the digital music front, and of course when you create a frictionless market, then what you're doing is you're actually increasing the transparency of whatever that is. And by increasing the transparency, you're enabling people to also collaborate, for example. So what we're gonna do is we're going to do mathematics. Really fun stuff. And we won't even use numbers because to me, numbers are really

irrelevant. What you have to look at is the acceleration and deceleration of markets and how that plays out. So I'm going to take this off right now and I'm gonna draw it for you because I think the best way to do it is - I could have just drawn it on the border but I want to show it to you and as I'm doing it, we can learn together. So the first thing we're going to talk about is building a new market on top of an existing market. And that was the first one I wrote about... Building a new market. And the best way for me always to look at it, because I look at patterns, you don't really need to know sophisticated math - I mean algebra or calculus. You don't really need to know anything about that. You can actually just look at it visually so building a new market on top on an existing market is something that happens quite often.

and I'm gonna give you two categories. So for instance, if you do the simple XY coordinates, and one of the things that you're going to see is that a lot of the natural ecosystems, a lot of things actually, depend on a bell-shaped curve. And there's a great book written by Jeffery Moore, Inside the Tornado, that he talks about the bell-shaped curve in terms of customer adoption or product adoption or innovation. And so what happens is a lot of the products/services, they do deal with the bell-shaped curve. But some of the things that do play out differently when it's a new market, because an evolving market, like I said, is like a nonlinear system, so it's quite unpredictable. So what happens is that if you have a category that's an existing category that's made a lot of money, it's a huge category, let's talk about the fast food industry. You've got McDonald's, you've got Wendy's.

Taco Bell and all those different chains that make a lot of money, but one of the cool things you can do is, you can actually create a new category. And it's really not a subcategory of the curve. So it's really not creating something within it, and this new category, as an example, is called fast casual dining, okay. You know what's phenomenal about fast-casual dining is the leader in that was Chipotle. I remember when I lived in Silicon Valley and my kids maybe go and eat at Chipotle. The first time out, I was like Wow! This is good, but to me it seemed like it was expensive considering the layout and all - and I'm actually a huge Chipotle fan, and the reason is because they've kind of recombined fast food with casual dining. And they created a simple solution. Of course, they added the organic components to it and all that. But one of the key things that's really interesting about Chipotle is that

their menu hasn't changed much over the last ten or fifteen years. And so what they did was they created a fast-casual dining category. So you could say that within this bell-shaped curve, you had a fast-food industry, and they'd been stagnant to some extent. Obviously, the expansion of McDonald's and Pizza Hut and all these places... that has happened because of international markets, but if you look at the sector within America, as an example, it had majorly a bell-shaped curve. And of course, it's really a matter of where each one of these players sits on the bell-shaped curve. So a new player. So one other thing that, if you're a startup, okay... which Chipotle was, you can ride, okay... You build on top of the existing market, and you create a new category. And that's really cool. Another really cool company which I'm a huge fan of is Whole Foods. What they've done... I mean, the grocery business has been around forever.

It's always going to be forever - we all have to eat. But what they've done is something really cool. They created an organic base... And most of their products, and they're pretty good at this, they're actually excellent at it, is it's organic-based and they try to keep it that way and healthy, grocery store. So, you know, in Texas you have Randall's, you have Kroger... and of course Walmart came in with their grocery format and Target and so on, but the bottom line is that organic-base grocery was created by Whole Foods. And if you notice something about both of these companies - they're both public, they're billion-dollar enterprises. So what they did was they rode on top of an existing market, they created a new category. And so what I wanted to write down on this is that this is market X, okay? It could be anything. And I'm telling you because of the complexity science principles of non-linear systems.

you can tell that one other way to create a billion-dollar start-up almost overnight is to create a new category within an existing category, and that's what they've done. So this is the first way... a first way of looking at an idea, whatever your idea is, and looking at it from a perspective of how do I create a new category on top of an existing category. Because what happens is that if you do it on top of an existing category, it's easier to explain to the consumer why they should buy it. And that's very critical because, if you're a startup, it doesn't matter how much money you have, okay... You're gonna have to spend money, time, and effort, and all that educating the consumer why they should buy the alternative, whatever that alternative is. So this is the first market pattern that I've seen. It plays out all the time. People create a new category. The category, whatever the reason, whatever the structural dynamics of the subsector,

they just take off. And of course, fast-casual dining was... right now in hindsight, it's like, Gee, Chipotle was the first to invent that? Yeah, their food is high quality. Okay? And they make it easy, and they make it quick for you to go through the line, pick what you want, sit down, and eat. So, it's a beautiful formula. And of course, they're having copycats come out now in different types of food sectors, copying Chipotle, as an example. And one of the things that I can say in regards to Whole Foods is that you got other players right now attacking the organic market. So, you've got Sprouts. Sprouts is a very cool change because they try to focus on giving you less SKUs, less offerings, but the price is really good, and they do try to keep within that organic feel. The other one that I think is doing a really good job, and they're

In my opinion, it may be a little less organic. Central Market. Very good stuff. Very good products. Great pricing... probably a little bit better pricing than Whole Foods, but still they're riding that healthy conscious wave of the consumer, so they don't have to educate the market. The irony is that Whole Foods was the company, from my perspective, that educated consumers, the average consumer, on the benefit of buying healthy food, local food. And on that note, we'll go to the next pattern that I've seen in regards to how to build a billion-dollar company overnight. And so the next pattern is Surf the Market Expansion (continued in part 2).

Startup Unicorns | 1: Building a New Market | Build a Billion Dollar Startup Almost Overnight

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10억 달러 규모의 스타트업 구축하기: 주요 패턴

자연 생태계와 비즈니스 생태계는 비슷한 역학을 공유하므로 패턴 인식은 성공에 매우 중요합니다.

10억 달러 규모의 스타트업을 빠르게 구축하려면 5가지 핵심 전략에 집중하세요: 1) 기존 시장을 기반으로 구축, 2) 시장 확장에 기여, 3) 시장의 성장세에 편승, 4) 시장의 교차점에서 출시, 5) 디지털 혁신을 통해 시장을 더욱 원활하게 만드는 것입니다.

음악 산업이 아날로그에서 디지털로 진화한 것이 이러한 패턴의 대표적인 예입니다.

마찰 없는 시장이 비즈니스 모델에 미치는 영향

디지털 유통이 주도하는 마찰 없는 시장은 특히 음악 분야에서 비용을 절감하고 산업을 확장하고 있습니다.

이러한 시장의 투명성은 협업과 혁신을 촉진합니다.

기존 시장 위에 새로운 시장을 구축하는 개념은 일반적으로 고객 또는 제품 채택이 종 모양의 곡선을 그리는 경우가 많습니다.

치폴레와 패스트 캐주얼 다이닝의 영향력

치폴레는 패스트푸드와 캐주얼 다이닝을 결합하여 유기농 재료로 간단한 솔루션을 제공함으로써 패스트 캐주얼 다이닝 카테고리를 개척했습니다.

이 레스토랑의 메뉴는 10년이 넘도록 거의 변함없이 유지되어 성공에 기여했습니다.

치폴레의 성장은 식료품 업계에서 홀푸드의 영향력과 유사하게 스타트업이 기존 시장을 기반으로 새로운 카테고리를 창출할 수 있는 방법을 보여줍니다.

홀푸드가 유기농 식료품 시장에 미치는 영향

홀푸드는 유기농 기반 식료품 모델을 개척하여 기존 시장에 새로운 카테고리를 만들었습니다.

홀푸드와 경쟁사인 월마트와 타겟은 모두 수십억 달러 규모의 공기업입니다.

기존 카테고리 위에 새로운 카테고리를 만드는 전략은 성공적인 스타트업을 구축하는 강력한 방법이 될 수 있습니다.

치폴레와 홀푸드가 패스트 캐주얼 다이닝과 유기농 시장에 미치는 영향

치폴레는 고품질의 음식과 빠른 서비스로 패스트 캐주얼 다이닝에 혁명을 일으켰고, 수많은 모방 업체를 탄생시켰습니다.

처음에는 건강한 로컬 푸드의 이점에 대해 소비자를 교육했지만, 지금은 좋은 가격과 비슷한 유기농에 초점을 맞춘 Sprouts 및 Central Market과 같은 업체와의 경쟁에 직면해 있습니다.

시장 확장 전략은 10억 달러 규모의 기업으로 성장하기 위한 핵심 패턴으로 강조되고 있습니다.