교육과 업무에서 AI의 미래

빌 게이츠는 칸 아카데미의 Sal과의 대화에서 향후 5~10년 동안 교육과 업무에 미칠 AI의 영향에 대해 이야기합니다.

### 교육과 업무에서 AI의 미래
* 👨 - 빌 게이츠는 교육과 업무에 대한 AI의 영향에 대해 논의하며 **미래 고용 시장을 위한 심층적인 기술 개발의 중요성**을 강조합니다.
* 🤖 AI는 사람들의 생산성을 높여줄 것으로 기대되지만, **인간적인 연결과 공감을 필요로 하는 직업은 여전히 수요가 높을 것**입니다.
* 🌍 생산성과 AI 역량의 급격한 변화는 **향후 5~10년 내에 고용 시장에 큰 영향**을 미칠 것입니다.
* 📝 AI는 글쓰기에 대한 피드백을 제공하고 학습을 맞춤화함으로써 교육에 혁신을 가져올 것이지만, **더 풍부한 기술을 측정하기 위해서는 새로운 평가 기술**이 필요합니다.
* 💼 미래의 업무 환경에서는 **인간과 AI가 협업**하여 생산성을 향상시키고, 정부는 **AI를 규제**하고 부정적인 영향을 완화하는 데 중요한 역할을 담당하게 될 것입니다.

- Hi, everyone, Sal here from Khan Academy. And as some of y'all know, I
have released my second book, Brave New Words about the future of AI in education and work. It's available wherever
you might buy your books. But as part of the research for that book, I did some interviews with
some fascinating people, which you are about to watch. I'm very excited to
introduce you to our guest who probably needs no
introduction, Bill Gates. Bill, thanks for joining us. - Great to see you. - So I know AI is very
front of mind for you. Obviously, all of us at Khan Academy have been thinking a lot
about AI in education, and the focus of this is
AI in education and work. And I'll start with a
question that I'm getting from a lot of teenagers and folks in college and their parents is, given what you know about what's happening in artificial intelligence

and maybe in other technology as well. Like what advice would you give to someone who's trying to figure out what skills should they focus on or not focus on? What should they major in? What are the jobs gonna look like or not look like? Well, the AI will make people more productive. And in some cases, like writing software, there's a lot of unmet demand for good software. You can make it higher quality software. Exactly what the job market looks like is very hard to predict, but the deeper skillset, whether it's medical consultation or scientific thinking or customer support, the more value that's gonna have, even in a world where your productivity will be enhanced by having this sort of almost free worker, is looking over your shoulder, giving you advice, giving you lots of feedback on what it is that you're doing. So I don't think there's anything like don't become a barber or a radiologist that we have in mind.

because the new capabilities
are very horizontal in nature. It's not a topic-specific set of advances. - So it's kind of like
everyone's gonna have an intern or a research assistant or an analyst. So maybe the answer is don't be the research assistant or
the intern or the analyst. Learn to manage them. - Yeah, and of course jobs
like helping handicapped, elderly, helping to motivate students, there's such an infinite
demand for those things, even in the rich world, but
even more dramatically so in developing countries
that jobs that require deep human connection and empathy, we'd say it's a long ways off before there's a substitute
for those things. We have two revolutions
kind of in parallel. We have this ChatGPT-enabled sort of reading and writing
white collar enhancement, but in the meantime, people
shouldn't underestimate that the blue collar sort of robotics, eventually leading to a humanoid robot, that's quite general purpose

in terms of the physical skills, arms, legs, things that it can do, that's also happening. And so the good news is that we're gonna have more leisure time, that a lot of the shortages that we have on medical advice or when we get confused being able to be straightened out. We have this supply of these new capabilities and the unique roles that humans take on or how they'll take their extra spare time and make that fulfilling, those are our challenges. What you just touched on is interesting, 'cause I think people have always theorized that, hey, we're gonna get more productive, we're gonna be able to do more with less time, and so we'll have more leisure is I think utopian for a lot of folks. But it looks like the patterns of the past, of productivity improvements, or if anything, that the hyper productive are working harder, because they get so much leverage from from every minute.

that it's not necessarily leading to that. Do you think something's
different about this wave where maybe things like the four-day, or maybe even eventually
a three-day work week, will become common? Or do you think people
are just gonna be able to do more with less and hire fewer people than they do today? The analogies from the
past are worth understanding, but the changes in the past
were generational in nature. So the mechanization of
the primary occupation, which was growing food,
that happens gradually. And so grandpa was a farmer,
and your parents less so, and then now, I don't know
many rich world farmers. I know a few, but not many. And so you didn't have
to change mid-career. It is true that demand for things that we wouldn't have expected emerged. And so it's comforting
to look at that history, but the total level of capability here and the speed at which it's going.

to suffuse into the economy and change job markets. Five years, the effect will be very substantial. I'd say in 10 years, it's going to be quite dramatic. And so I don't think we can completely dismiss the idea of this change will finally get us to the point where the trade-off between labor and leisure actually becomes important. And instead of taxing labor, like with payroll taxes, I called it a robot tax when I talked about it, and people thought it was strange, but we'll shift to where we essentially subsidize labor and tax completely on the capital and profit side, which that alone is a pretty big shift that government will need to make. It's a fascinating idea and it makes a ton of sense, because obviously, if we have a more abundant society, more productive society, but let's take an investment bank or consulting firm. A lot of the traditional work that people are billing and the size of the organization

are analysts doing spreadsheets and making PowerPoint presentations. And a lot of that stuff's
gonna get automated very fast. And so this is a world where
you subsidize these firms to say, No, keep hiring interns. Keep hiring these junior analysts. So have a sense of purpose as opposed to these young people
not having something to do, not building their skillset, and never being able
to become the manager. - Yeah, if you get to the extreme where the purpose that jobs provide isn't the central organizing
principle of society, then you get into some deep
philosophical questions about what should priorities
and what is the purpose. In an abstruse way, the Bostrom book
Superintelligence touched on that. I don't really think
that's been written about all that well. Life 3.0 did a good job of saying, okay, what is the role of the intelligence in these futuristic scenarios?

A lot of new books coming out right now. I've been able to catch up to them all. Probably some of those will be helpful. - I'm interviewing you right now for one of them. (both laughing) - That's right. - And just going back to I guess more basics, so to speak, obviously, a lot of the folk, we talked a little bit about work, but now going back to the core of education, which I know you care deeply about, we've chatted many times about education, right now, there's a bit of an emergency going on in education. People like kids are gonna cheat using this technology. Do you have an answer for, and we're hearing this from every faculty across grade levels. What would you do if you were a history professor or a writing professor at a high school or a college right now? - Well, to have a pure test of somebody's ability to write on their own or calculate on their own,

you'll need to create an environment where they don't have access
to the software tools. Our efforts to detect whether software has helped you write something
will catch the sloppiest sort of the equivalent of
cut-and-paste from Wikipedia. But in the end, we won't be able to tell, because there'll be
such a variety of tools, and the variety of prompts
will make that quite difficult. So the good news here is
that for the first time, if you write on a topic, the
AI can give you feedback. It can help you with the first draft. It can help compare what
you've done to something else. It can create a program of study of things that you might
try to write about. And so the level of engagement, where it can help you
whenever you're stuck, really is something new. It goes even beyond the fact that there's great YouTube videos about all the sciences and history. This gets into the realm of custom

to tutors and feedback on reading and writing. So the paradox that now we have this tool. If you want to learn, it makes it easier. But testing somebody's capability, we're gonna have to use new techniques. And sadly, in some cases, it might make people feel like, Wow, if it's so good, do I still need to push myself as hard? You and I are saying, both for personal fulfillment and to play a role in contribution in a job market, the higher level your skills are, the more it will retain a substantial value. So helping kids learn how to get feedback on their writing, I think that's imperative, because we do a very poor job of that today. - So what I'm hearing is that not only is there not less of a reason, there's more of a reason to accelerate per the earlier part of our conversation, which is those intern level, entry level things

are quickly going to expect you
to be more of the architect, more of the editor, more of the manager. And if you can't make that
leap sooner than later, the good news is these same
tools can be used to do that, which I agree with as well. And obviously, we're
working on a lot of that. So if there was a professor, I mean, we get emails from
folks, maybe you do too, of like, What do I do this fall? And it sounds like you
would do more in-class proctored things for assessment, and would you still do
the traditional term paper, or would you change the
rules of engagement on that? - Well, yes, in the workplace, people are gonna be encouraged to come up with the best product they can, where it's them plus the AI. And there's no reason not to have that be one of the skills
that you practice. Hey, let's do a business plan.

And sure, learn how to use
the very best AI tools. But I will view the, if
I just have the AI do it without any of your value added, that's gonna be like a C-minus or worse. You have to get in there and bring in a little more accuracy, different sources of knowledge, and have unique value add. I mean, you understand the
audience that it's going to. It's even hard still for the computer to understand all those
different contexts. So yes, you're gonna have
two kinds of writing: writing you do completely
without the help of the computer and writing you do where you're encouraged to make it be the best assistant possible. - No, that makes sense. We talked to Kevin Roose, who writes for the New York Times, also famously wrote about his interactions with
Sydney and all of that. And his point is there's
writing and there's journalism. The writing, the AIs are
getting very good at.

but the journalism, making the contacts, being able to interview
people, form bonds, et cetera. And that there's an analog to everything. If you're an entrepreneur,
doing user testing, although the AI might be
able to do pieces of that. Related to this whole practice feedback, you touched on the word assessment. I'm curious where you
think assessment is going. Obviously, for many years, scalable assessment was fairly limited. Scantron, multiple choice,
that's what we did. Because we couldn't do richer assessment, it started to drive what does or does not
happen in the classroom. Do you think that's about to change? - Well, there's a
controversy over assessment independent of the AI. Should SAP scores be part
of college admissions? I do think proving that your math skills and your basic understanding of history and science is strong, that's pretty important. And that when you wanna
consolidate knowledge

the fact that you'll be asked
very broad questions about it is very motivational to
making it accessible. Not just, Okay, tomorrow, I'll know it' in a simplistic form, but
rather, I know how to access it and combine it with my other knowledge. So I'm still somebody who thinks that tests can help you know
where you are in a subject area, and it's a meritocratic thing that you really wanna be able to prove that you have some capability. Certainly, when I go to a doctor, I'm glad they've been
subject to some examination and test of their competence. Now, dealing with the fact that if you have a
disadvantaged background, even if you're on a
slope to get really good, that looking at you just
at that moment in time maybe shouldn't be directly comparable. That's an interesting challenge. Partly, that's why I love the
idea of the computer tutor because it can be encouraging.

it can understand what
your misconceptions are, and if we can make it
available very broadly, it means that the
sophistication that, say, my parents provided to
me as college graduates is less unique in a
world where the AI tutor is super helpful in a
huge variety of subjects. But I'll stick up, in many cases, having a objective
assessment of your skills. I think it once you move away from that, you're in a very difficult place, even in terms of your own discipline of, do I understand this topic or not? - Yeah, no, I agree. And whenever someone says, Oh, I'm against standardized assessment, I'm like, Which part are you against, the standardized part
or the assessment part? And it's usually hard for them to be against either of those. But I think what they
are implicitly saying is they feel like it's
maybe not fully capturing where the student is. There's only certain
things you can measure.

Maybe it's not capturing their slope. To your point, it's a snapshot in time. Do you think that AI,
in the next five years, 10 years might solve this by being able to give richer assessment? And assessment could be
where you are in math, it could be where you are in writing. It could even be things
like job interviews. That's a form of assessment,
career progression. Do you think it's gonna
play a big role there? - Well, I think given that we still have certain imperfections in the AI, people can still be skeptical when we say that an interactive assessment with the AI discussing a topic like your understanding
of history or economics, that that we can make that equivalent to the very best sort of professor who would engage you deeply. And I think we will get to that level, and that is superior to just a
set of standardized questions that you have to have sort
of a straightforward answer and your richness of
understanding the topic.

There are people who are better at multiple-choice type questions and test things. I think you and I probably would've done well educationally, but I think partly we are good at tests, and I felt bad for kids who the test, I could tell they were intimidated when that multiple choice, you have to answer all of these in an hour would come out. So by accommodating a more flexible dialogue, I think different styles of learning will be appreciated. A broader set of skills will be appreciated. But we still have to prove that to people. We're not at that level of matching a great professor discussing a topic with you yet. - And then being able to actually give a good assessment of it. - Exactly. - What we've seen, we can emulate the actual discussion part quite good already. But the strong assessment, I think there's, but probably gonna happen, my guess. - Oh yes, it's gonna happen. I mean, when you have experts who are good at something

that's linguistic in nature, and as you gather those data sets and constantly give feedback to them, even with today's mechanisms,
which can be improved, but even just with this, we can develop something
like a human expert. - And I mean with that, it's funny. I mean, this conversation, as you know, even a year ago would've all
seemed like science fiction. And this is all changing so quickly. I feel this way and I feel
like I'm in the middle of it, but still, things are changing so fast. You also are probably seeing even more. I wanna ask you a long-term question, 'cause who knows what
the world's gonna be like in even 20 years? But let's say five years, which
is I think what most people should be kind of planning
for in their lives, whether they run a company, whether they're a young
person for their career. What do you think the world of education

and work is gonna look like? Like paint a picture. Are we gonna be able to have
a video conference with, I mean, I don't wanna cloud you, but what would it look like? How's it gonna be
dramatically different or not than the world we're in right now? - Well, there'll be a certain set of jobs where just moving documents
around and looking at documents, say, accounting or medical claims, where the depth of
understanding in those jobs is pretty straightforward. And some of those jobs will
just be purely automated. Then there'll be a ton of jobs, where they're still being done by humans, like making greeting cards. And I went back and
watched the movie Her because it raises in a pretty- - I thought greeting cards were definitely gonna be automated, 'cause now you can have mass customization of greeting cards, but anyway. - Yeah, you probably
can do it by yourself. Take Dolly 10 and say,

Hey, here's how I wanna make fun of my sister. Remind her about this thing from the past, and here's some photos to stick in that. So yeah, you might eliminate the professional there because you and the AI can do it in a very bespoke way. But there'll be a lot of jobs left that are just more productive, where you have this kind of co-pilot that's taking the, okay, convert the PowerPoint to a Word document, and boom, that draft is available for you to have as the starting point. And so that extra productivity will create new opportunity to take things like medical care and make it better, education and make it better, care of the elderly and make it better. Productivity is a good thing, and people have been bemoaning and there's many books about, oh, we have electricity. And then since then, everything hasn't been quite, at least the way it reflects in economic figures.

as dramatic as what happened there. This you will see in the
economic figures in a big way, both the robotic side of it and the LLM reading and writing part of it as well. So in five years, we will
be in a different space. Hopefully, elections
will still be uncontested, and deepfakes won't make the
problems we already have there even more difficult. It is interesting that
government at a time when it's not as trusted as we'd like will have to step forward
and change tax policies and have retraining policies and be part of the
dialogue of setting rules. The entire industry is saying there's a role for government here, but at a time where trust in that and the divisiveness is very challenging. So I hope that we haven't
suffered that much from the negatives in the
five-year time period, and by then, society will have
reoriented itself and say, Okay, how do we avoid this
being used as an attack vehicle?

How do we make sure it's used in an equitable way? Certainly, the dreams I have about health and education in poor countries. I think it'll take us five years to kind of get it out and get into widespread use. Five years is a very short period of time, but it lays a foundation where I hope by being more productive as a society, many of the challenges of aging or climate, people expecting government to do more than it's capable of doing, that we'll say, Wow, we're making obesity drugs better. We're making Alzheimer's drugs better. And you'll get this sort of positive view of the current system and not making it work better in an incremental way versus the divisiveness or even considering radical alternatives that I think would be pretty scary. So innovation here, because it will surprise people, it's not expected, does have a lot of positive upside. - Yeah, I mean, that leads to the last question,

which is, how are you feeling? My view on AI changes almost daily, as I read more and I think more and have conversations like this. Are you feeling net positive? Are you really worried
about certain things within your positivity? Are you net negative? How are you feeling about it, and what are the things
you're thinking most about? - I'm thrilled that when I
sit with the malaria team and we talk about how we're gonna have better ways of killing mosquitoes that these software things can help with, or we sit and talk about kids who've decided they're not good at math, that we haven't made much
progress for those kids, just having all the ability
to try out their knowledge, that wasn't enough to draw them in. And so that issue of motivation and the fact that AI tutor,
one of its excellent things will be understanding the right level, the right encouragement,
to make somebody feel like, Yeah, this mathematical
understanding of the world

is something that can work for
me and make my life better, even beyond what sort of job
opportunities it enables. So I'm very thrilled about that. The world that we're delivering it into and its ability to have
complex factual debates and different countries try
out different regulations, I would say that the political challenge where everyone says government has this big, big role to play, to take advantage of the positives, for example, changing the tax structure, and to mitigate negatives, deepfakes, bias, AI-enabled cyber attacks. Is our governance structures
mature enough, agile enough, and can they come to consensus enough that we'll manage this
opportunity in a good way? And there are definitely days that I worry the government side of this thing won't step up to what's necessary. - Yeah, well, I could talk to
you for several more hours, maybe days about this. But Bill, thanks for taking
your time out for this.

This is super valuable. No, it's fun to be on this journey together, and we'll be a great partner and help you realize your vision. Great, well, we appreciate that so much. It is exciting times. Let's see what happens. (laughs) All right, thanks. All right, thanks, Bill.

Brave New Words - Bill Gates & Sal Khan

Khan Academy is a nonprofit providing a free, world-class education for anyone, anywhere. Our interactive practice problems, articles, and videos help students succeed in math, biology, chemistry, physics, history, economics, finance, grammar, and many other topics.

Khan Academy provides teachers with data on how their students are doing so they can identify gaps in learning and provide tailored instruction. We  also offer free personalized SAT and LSAT practice in partnership with the College Board and the Law School Admission Council. 

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교육과 업무에서의 AI에 대한 빌 게이츠의 조언

빌 게이츠는 AI의 생산성 향상으로 인해 의료 상담, 과학적 사고, 고객 지원과 같은 분야에서 심도 있는 기술을 개발하는 것이 중요하다고 강조합니다.

또한 인간관계와 공감이 필요한 직업에 대한 지속적인 수요를 강조하며, 이러한 역할을 대체할 수 있는 기술이 나오기까지는 갈 길이 멀다고 말합니다.

게이츠는 생산성 향상으로 인한 여가 시간의 증가 가능성에 대해 논의하지만, AI가 가져올 빠른 변화와 역량을 이해해야 할 필요성을 인정합니다.

자동화가 경제와 고용 시장에 미치는 잠재적 영향

자동화는 향후 5~10년 내에 노동과 여가 사이의 균형에 실질적이고 극적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다.

노동에 보조금을 지급하고 자본과 이윤에 세금을 부과하는 방향으로의 전환은 자동화 증가에 대응하는 정부의 중요한 정책 변화를 의미합니다.

AI와 소프트웨어 도구의 사용은 교육 시스템을 변화시켜 글쓰기와 학습에 대한 AI의 피드백과 지원을 통해 학생들에게 새로운 수준의 참여도를 제공할 것으로 예상됩니다.

학습, 작문 및 평가에 대한 AI의 영향

AI 도구는 학습과 작문을 더 쉽게 만들어 주었지만, 동시에 역량을 테스트하기 위한 새로운 기술을 필요로 하는 역설을 낳았습니다.

직장에서 사람들은 최고 품질의 작품을 생산하기 위해 AI와 협력해야 하지만, 정확성과 가치를 위해서는 여전히 인간의 고유한 입력이 중요합니다.

AI의 역할은 글쓰기와 저널리즘의 지형을 바꾸고 있으며, 인맥 형성 및 인터뷰 진행과 같은 인간의 기술에 대한 필요성이 점점 더 커지고 있습니다.

확장 가능한 평가 방법은 AI의 발전과 함께 변화할 것으로 예상되며, 대학 입시에서 표준화된 시험의 미래 역할에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.

시험은 학생들이 과목에 대한 지식 수준을 이해하고 자신의 능력을 증명하는 데 도움이 될 수 있지만, 특히 취약한 배경을 가진 학생들에게는 어려움이 있습니다.

AI 튜터링과 대화형 평가는 학생들의 기술과 지식을 보다 풍부하고 유연하게 평가하는 데 큰 역할을 할 것으로 기대됩니다.

그러나 AI가 훌륭한 교수의 수준만큼 강력한 평가를 제공할 수 있을지에 대해서는 여전히 회의적인 시각이 존재합니다.

교육의 미래에는 다양한 학습 스타일과 기술을 수용하기 위해 AI 기반 평가와 전통적인 교수법이 결합될 가능성이 높습니다.

향후 5년간의 업무와 교육의 미래

기술의 급속한 발전은 일부 직업의 자동화로 이어질 것이며, 의료 및 교육과 같은 분야에서 생산성 향상과 새로운 기회를 창출할 것입니다.

인공지능의 역할 증가와 생산성 향상으로 특정 직업의 성격이 변화할 수 있지만, 여전히 인간이 수행하는 직업은 상당수 존재할 것입니다.

낮은 신뢰와 분열 속에서 재교육과 세금에 대한 규칙과 정책을 수립하는 데 있어 정부의 개입은 매우 중요할 것입니다.

사회는 향후 5년 동안 기술의 부정적인 영향과 잠재적인 오용을 완화하기 위해 방향을 전환해야 할 것입니다.

AI의 미래에 대한 빌 게이츠의 희망과 우려

빌 게이츠는 AI가 건강, 교육, 사회 생산성에 미치는 긍정적인 영향에 대해 낙관적입니다.

그는 말라리아 통제를 개선하고, 학생들에게 동기를 부여하며, 사실에 근거한 토론을 촉진할 수 있는 AI의 잠재력에 대해 흥분하고 있습니다.

하지만 딥페이크와 사이버 공격 등 AI의 도전과제를 처리할 거버넌스 구조의 성숙도와 민첩성에 대해서는 걱정하고 있습니다.

전반적으로 게이츠는 AI의 잠재력에 대해 낙관적으로 생각하지만, 이를 효과적으로 관리할 수 있는 정부의 능력에 대해서는 우려하고 있습니다.