Let's welcome DoubleLine Capital's CEO, CIO, and founder, Jeffrey Gundlach. Welcome back to what's become a

tradition, and I'm glad to have you, Jeffrey.

Good to be here, Scott. Your reaction on what you just heard and what

the Fed did? Well, there's a lot more confusion now than there was a couple of months ago, um, regarding the future path, but the

squaring of the 2-year treasury yield and the Fed funds rate is now complete. I talked several months ago about the

Fed being behind the curve and needing to get aggressive in getting more in line with the two-year treasury, but now the

2-year treasury is at 4.35 and the Fed funds rate is at 4.38, if you take the middle of the range,

so they're exactly there. Underneath the surface, though, uh, there were a couple of problems. The first thing he said at

the beginning of his press conference, as always, is they're squarely focused on their dual mandate, and then he used the

word "cooling" for the labor market, and he pointed out that it's looser than it was pre-pandemic. So that seems to be not

trending quite the way they might want. And at the same time, he said, uh, uncertainty regarding inflation is

clearly higher. In fact, I think he let something slip on an ad-lib, and I think he said—let's see—he said the forecast

from a few months ago on inflation seems to have fallen apart. I think are the words that he used. So what we have now

is a neutral rate versus the 2-year treasury, yet the dual mandate that they're squarely focused on is not

exactly trending in the perfect direction. Uh, the inflation data points have not improved since the

September meeting. Um, about—we follow about 30 different inflation primary inputs, and the number that are showing

Accelerating inflation in the several quarters ahead has increased since September. Also, what's very interesting about what's happened over the past...

really a very aggressive cutting cycle. I mean, they've cut 100 basis points in 3 months, so that's a 400 basis point

annual rate. And if you go back over all these Fed cutting cycles going back to 1984—so going back 40 years—this is the

first time that after the first cut in the Fed funds rate that interest rates have gone up and not down. The 10-year

Treasury yield is up by 80 basis points from September 18th, and usually the yield falls on the 10-year Treasury once

you go into a Fed hiking cycle. So the takeaway that I got from that press conference was there's not going to be

an aggressive cutting cycle as a base case in 2025. Obviously, the market went from four implied Fed rate cuts in

2025 to now the Fed's down at two, and the market is pretty much in sync with that—much slower rate cuts. And of

course, risky assets and a very highly valued stock market don't like the idea that rate cuts are less likely on sort

of both sides of the mandate. Our intention with the path that was so comfortably in place per the press

conferences in the mid-part of this year—that confidence just isn't where it used to be. So I think the

Fed is now extraordinarily data dependent as we enter 2025. I know they're always data dependent, but at

this juncture, it's very—it's critical that we watch that unemployment rate, which Fed Chair Powell said that job creation

is not high enough to keep the unemployment rate steady. So the base case is that rates are going in the, you know,

up direction, which is not the direction they want. And at the same time, some inflationary primary inputs are suggesting that we're

Not going to get to 2%. I thought the last question asked in the press conference was a perfect ending.

Kind of, is it really? Is it good enough to be at 2.5% inflation? Do we

have to give up on 2% inflation? You know, are we... is where we are the best we're

going to get? And my takeaway from that press conference is the short answer to that is yes. I think that we're not

likely to get to 2% inflation in 2025, and the Fed says so themselves. In fact,

we'll probably start having inflationary pressures towards the middle of 2025, and the headline CPI rate

will probably not be below 2.5% when the inflation rate starts heading up towards three. Now, obviously,

all these things can change. We don't have great visibility on the second half of 2025, but unless the price of energy

falls, which is possible with "drill, drill, drill" being the rhetoric of the incoming Trump administration, we'll see.

But oil prices have been remarkably stable, and that's the real wild card: if they were to go up for whatever

reason, we would start to see significant inflation risk, and there'll be no Fed cuts in 2025 if that's the case.

채권왕 건들락, 이제 금리 인하는 없다? (번역맨 에릭)

에릭의 거장연구소

연준의 금리 결정 및 시장 반응

연준의 금리 인상 결정 이후 시장의 혼란이 증가했으며, 2년 만기 국채 수익률과 연준 기준금리가 일치하게 되었다.

연준은 이중 과제(물가 안정과 고용 극대화)에 집중하고 있으며, 고용 시장이 팬데믹 이전보다 느슨해졌다고 언급했다.

연준 의장은 인플레이션에 대한 불확실성이 높아졌으며, 이전의 인플레이션 예측이 빗나갔다고 시인했다.

다양한 인플레이션 지표들을 분석한 결과, 향후 몇 분기 동안 인플레이션이 가속화될 가능성이 높아졌다.

최근 3개월간 100bp의 금리 인하에도 불구하고 10년 만기 국채 수익률은 상승했다. 이는 과거 40년간의 연준 금리 인하 사이클과는 다른 양상이다.

2025년 금리 인하 전망 및 시장 영향

2025년 공격적인 금리 인하 사이클은 예상치 못하며, 시장의 예상 금리 인하 횟수도 감소했다.

위험 자산과 고평가된 주식 시장은 금리 인하 가능성 감소에 부정적으로 반응한다.

연준은 2025년에 데이터에 크게 의존할 것이며, 실업률과 인플레이션 지표를 주의 깊게 관찰할 것이다.

기준 금리는 상승할 가능성이 높으며, 일부 인플레이션 지표는 2% 목표 달성이 어려울 수 있음을 시사한다.

인플레이션 전망 및 향후 시나리오

2.5%의 인플레이션 수준이 최선의 결과일 수 있으며, 2025년 2% 인플레이션 달성은 어려울 것으로 예상된다.

2025년 중반부터 인플레이션 압력이 높아질 가능성이 있으며, CPI는 2.5%를 밑돌지 않을 수 있다.

에너지 가격 하락 여부가 중요한 변수이며, 유가 상승 시 인플레이션 위험이 커지고 2025년 금리 인하는 없을 수 있다.

채권왕 건들락, 이제 금리 인하는 없다? (번역맨 에릭)

스크립트