채권 시장 역학 및 투자 전략 이해

### 채권의 이해: 투자 및 시장 움직임에 대한 전략
* 📉 채권은 일반적으로 변동성이 낮은 상품이며, **미국 국채는 달러 표시와 미국 정부의 지원**으로 인해 가장 안정적인 자산으로 간주됩니다.
* 📈 금리가 상승하면 채권 가격이 하락하고 반대로 금리가 하락하면 채권 가격이 상승하는 것은 투자자들이 기억해야 할 중요한 개념입니다.
* 💡 채권 시장은 일반적으로 변동성이 낮아 박스권 내에서 움직이기 때문에 투자자는 하락 시 부분 매수를 하고 상승 시 매도를 통해 **10%에서 20%의 수익**을 얻을 수 있습니다.
* 📊 장기 채권의 경우 현재 연준의 목표 금리가 **2.5%에서 3% 사이**에서 조정되고 있고 **10년 만기 국채는 3.5%에서 4% 정도**에서 정점을 찍고 있는 만큼 가격 바닥과 정점을 파악하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 🔍 투자자는 기술적 분석과 시장 심리를 고려하여 채권의 수익률을 결정해야 하며, 이는 종종 **주관적이고 연방준비제도 정책 및 월스트리트 예측**과 같은 요인에 영향을 받습니다.
* 💰 합리적인 매수 범위는 **약 4.1%~4.3%**, 매도 목표는 **약 3.7%~3.8%**로 설정하여 채권 만기와 수익률에 따라 전략적으로 수익을 계산할 수 있습니다.
* 📅 투자자는 **5~7%의 수익률에 대한 경험**이 쌓이면 금리 상승과 시장 변동성으로 인한 어려움에도 불구하고 시장 움직임을 더 잘 이해하고 수익을 극대화할 수 있는 전략을 개발할 수 있습니다.
* 📚 채권 시장에 대한 지속적인 연구와 적응은 **주식 투자의 높은 수익률에는 못 미치더라도 시간이 지나도 꾸준한 수익**으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

채권은 신중한 시장 전략을 통해 안정성과 5~7%의 잠재적 수익을 제공합니다.

I'm not very familiar with it, so could you please explain it briefly and concisely? I am also thinking deeply about it. Let me explain it in depth. Bonds are products with low volatility. Originally, they were, but now they are a bit high, but generally, they have low volatility. Bonds are very stable assets, and additionally, they can be further stabilized by being dollar-denominated assets, which are backed by the U.S. government. Therefore, the most stable asset in the world is U.S. Treasury bonds. 

Another point about bonds is that when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. You need to memorize this. There are discussions about discount rates and so on, but this is something you need to remember when investing. When interest rates fall, bond prices rise. In this situation, I mentioned that volatility is low. So how does the bond market move? Well, they...

Due to low volatility, we see movements within a range. The same goes for stocks. If you look for stable companies, that's a good strategy. When I refer to this range, think of it like this: when you identify one, two, three points within the box, how do you focus on your strategy? You can make partial purchases in the declining phase, and when it rises, make partial sales from the top. Just repeating this can yield an investment return of 10% to 20%. 

Then there's swing trading. I got into stocks after crossing over to Japan due to a marriage issue, starting with absolutely no knowledge. I faced a lot of challenges at first but then discovered YouTube and came across a channel that helped me. After work, I would study intensely at night, and today I managed to achieve a 20% profit on my principal. Compared to others, my returns have been quite good.

Still, I feel a sense of achievement. You always have to be happy. I earned 20% on my principal. Oh, it’s tough working in a distant place. It really is tough out there. Nowadays, I think the world is a great place to live, and it's because of things like this. Just how good life is! You can just watch from anywhere in the world if the timing is right. Oh, thank you for the first Super Chat. I look forward to your continued support. Yes, right. I need to tell you that you should properly set your box in the bond market. What I want to emphasize about long-term bonds is this: Where is the price floor for long-term bonds? You need to establish some criteria for the lows and highs. So, what will you start with? Let's take the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond.

Insurance company employees and those who have invested for a long time, those with a lot of money, have clear standards. The bottom line is not clearly defined, but the peak is clearly defined. I keep mentioning that the target rate the Fed talks about is announced in March, June, September, and December. This is translated into Korean as long-term target yield. It can also be expressed as interest rate target or neutral rate. However, they discuss it based on the target rate plus about 1%. So, what is the current target rate proposed by the Fed? The neutral rate is between 2.5% and 3%. Last year, they mentioned a target rate of 2%, but recently, Fed officials have come out and said that having a target rate of 2% is...

The complete market is now at 2%. We can't take just 2%, so we need to make some adjustments. What is being discussed now is that the interest rate has been slightly adjusted upward from 2.5% to 3%. If we look at an increase of 1%, the long-term interest rate, based on the 10-year bond, is considered to be at its peak. The 10-year bond is somewhere between 3.5% and 4%, which is regarded as the peak. When it comes to selling long-term bonds, if the rate exceeds 4%, we should start considering selling. So, what about the bottom line? This requires technical analysis and various considerations, but the bottom line I’m currently observing is around 4.1% to about 4.25%, which is the range I’m looking at.

If Trump becomes president again, the market could go down by about 4.5%. If Trump plus the Senate and House are controlled by the Republicans, it could drop by about 5%. This means that the bond market would be completely devastated. The bottom line is somewhat of a gut feeling. It depends on Wall Street's outlook and predictions, how much money the Federal Reserve prints, the statements made by the Fed members, and the investment sentiment in the bond market. This is how the so-called bottom is determined. Right now, people find it very difficult to set a benchmark for what's called dollar-cost averaging in the bond market. Even those who have invested in bonds for a long time find it quite challenging to establish this benchmark. However, what's clear is that there is a well-defined high point, which means that people could potentially buy bonds sufficiently.

To evaluate the price, we need to think rationally about what we see. We should consider how much profit we can make. I think around 4.1 to 4.2 or 4.3 is a reasonable range for buying. The reason I consider this range is that if it's roughly between 3.5 and 4.0, I can set my selling price target around 3.7 to 3.8, right? It's about thinking in reverse. Since the Federal Reserve is talking like this, I need to figure out where I can sell bonds and where I think the peak is. If it takes ten years, a peak at 3.7% or 3.8% would be reasonable. Then, I calculate where I need to buy to ensure I achieve a sufficient return. So, I estimate that I need to aim for around the low to mid-4% range. If I buy at 4.2% and sell at 3.7%, I would make a 0.5% profit, right? That means I would be making 0.5%.

Since it's going from 4.2 to 3.7, that's about a 0.5% gain. But this depends on the term of the bond; of course, the 10-year bond isn't entirely clear. Earlier, someone mentioned in the chat about the duration. When it comes to bonds, the yield is simply a number, and the duration is multiplied by that yield. There’s a concept of bond duration, which refers to how many years you receive interest from the bond. To calculate the yield accurately, the duration must be multiplied. For example, the TLT duration comes out to about 17. So, if you want to calculate the yield precisely, if it's 17.3, then multiplying by 20 gives you what? 10%. 0.5 times 20 is 10%. While you should technically multiply by 17, if we’re estimating, it seems like if I can’t buy at the lows or sell at the highs, then I could expect a gain of about 5 to 7%. That line is at 4%.

In the early stages, it is said that to be considered a worthwhile investment, it should yield around 5 to 7%. Insurance companies and other long-term investors often invest in this range. Since they provide very detailed explanations, others also remember that a return of about 5 to 7% is expected. Therefore, it becomes a point where it is worth buying. The threshold for what is considered worthwhile is set around 4.1%, 4.2%, or 4.3%. Since this threshold is established, people can roughly gauge how far it can go. They make bets based on this understanding. Do you see why it moves this way? If you understand this, then from there on, you can grasp the direction of the bond market. After experiencing the 5 to 7% yield once, twice, or three times, what kind of greed can you have? So, in our country, this is how things are progressing.

In this situation, we see a threefold increase of 5 to 7%. So, how much is that? It’s about 15 to 20%. That's why they are moving in this direction now. So, this is not to say that TMF is wrong; it's just that you need to understand this level of investment in leveraged bonds or bond ETFs from a trading perspective. The other day, someone mentioned they cut their losses on TLT. I asked why they made that decision, and the reason was their concern about this. They were worried that with news of rates rising to 4.5% or 5%, the price might drop significantly. Someone shared that they decided to cut their losses because they were worried about the potential for a sharp decline. If their reasoning is within a level that they can manage, then that's acceptable, but if it's about rates reaching 4.5% or 5%, then...

If we assume that this is going to happen, then the yield is going to increase significantly. Roughly 4.5%, if it goes up, then we can expect a 0.7% gain. Even without using leverage, it can come out to around 15% or 10%. As long as there are enough purchases before it goes up, I think it will be difficult for it to reach 4.5% or 5%. The fundamental issue lies with the Federal Reserve's target rate; it could take one or two years, or even five to six years. If that's the case, the actual returns will be severely impacted. Saying that Samsung Electronics will reach 80,000 won in five years is the same thing. From that perspective, it is indeed concerning that Trump might be elected again. The rebound of inflation in the bond market is indeed a significant threat to it. From that standpoint, there are concerns about volatility and price betting in the bond market.

There is definitely a reason why forecasts are being made here. However, the most basic calculation method is to approach it this way. In terms of direction, this is the correct approach. Recently, I've been studying a lot about bonds and my interest has increased significantly. As a result, when I meet many professors, I often ask them questions. Most of them think this way and invest using these formulas. If you know this, you'll make a lot of money. You understand, right? If you look at this, you'll make a lot of money. When you look at it from this perspective, it starts to become clear. I didn't know this before, but once I understood it, it became easier. Before COVID-19, I didn't invest in bonds at all. Prior to COVID-19, even when I went to the bank or securities firms to discuss bonds, I had no interest in them. However, since last year, I've developed a lot of interest in bonds.

Now that I'm investing a lot in bonds, I have to study a lot to put my money in. As I continue to study, it's true that making a lot of money like in stocks is difficult, but I can consistently earn about 5 to 7%, or around 5 to 10%. Since this can be repeated continuously, I can definitely make a profit over time.

채권 전문가들은 '이 공식'에 따라서 투자합니다ㅣ#미국채권 #TLT #TMF #TMV

기업 분석, 시황 분석을 중심으로 투자하는 개인투자자 테이버입니다.
15년차 개인투자자 / 아프리카TV BJ대상 / 머니카피 저자

"억만장자가 되고 싶다면 내 주변 사람을 백만장자로 만들어라"
테이버와 함께하는 안전하고 즐거운 투자생활! 돈벌자! 가즈아!

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설명왕_테이버

채권은 일반적으로 변동성이 낮고 안정적인 자산이며, 미국 국채는 달러 표시와 정부 지원으로 인해 가장 안정적인 자산입니다.

금리가 상승하면 채권 가격은 하락하고 그 반대의 경우도 마찬가지여서 채권 시장은 박스권에서 움직입니다.

하락 시 부분 매수, 상승 시 부분 매도 전략을 사용하면 10%에서 20%의 투자 수익을 얻을 수 있습니다.

연준의 목표 금리와 채권 시장에 미치는 영향

연방준비제도이사회는 3월, 6월, 9월, 12월에 목표 금리를 발표하며 현재 중립 금리는 2.

10년 만기 채권을 기준으로 한 장기 금리는 3.

5%에서 4% 사이가 정점으로 간주됩니다.

25% 정도로 관측되고 있으며, 정권이 교체될 경우 시장 금리가 하락할 가능성이 있습니다.

채권 듀레이션은 수익률 계산에 중요하며, TLT 듀레이션이 약 17이면 잠재적으로 10%의 수익을 얻을 수 있습니다.

발표자는 장기 투자자에게는 5%에서 7%의 수익률이 가치 있는 것으로 간주되며, 투자 결정을 내릴 때 4.

3% 정도의 임계치를 설정한다고 강조합니다.

레버리지 채권 및 채권 ETF에 투자하기

투자 금액이 5 ~ 7%로 3배 증가하여 총 15 ~ 20% 정도 증가했습니다.

5% 또는 5%로 상승할 것이라는 우려로 인해 투자자들은 TLT와 같은 채권 ETF에서 손실을 줄이고 있습니다.

연방준비제도의 목표 금리와 그 영향에 대한 잠재적 타임라인은 채권 시장의 변동성과 수익률에 대한 우려를 불러일으킵니다.

채권 및 투자 전략에 대한 관심 증가

이 발표자는 최근 채권에 큰 관심을 가지게 되었고 교수님에게 투자 방법을 자주 물어봅니다.

채권 투자 공식을 이해하면 큰 수익을 올릴 수 있다고 믿기 때문입니다.

작년부터 적극적으로 채권에 투자하고 있으며, 장기적으로 5~10%의 꾸준한 수익을 목표로 하고 있습니다.