블랙록의 25년 여정: 자본 시장 및 인프라 투자

블랙록은 창립 25주년을 맞아 글로벌 경제 성장과 인프라 투자에 대한 낙관론으로 자본 시장이 번창하고 있음을 강조합니다.

### 블랙록 25주년을 기념합니다: 자본 시장 및 인프라 성장에 대한 낙관론
* 🎉 1999년 10월 1일 상장 이후 25주년을 맞이한 블랙록은 **주가 상승률이 11,000%에 육박**하며 **S&P를 20배나 앞지르는 등 중요한 이정표**를 세웠습니다.
* 🌍 일본과 인도와 같은 국가들이 경제 성장을 촉진하기 위한 수단으로 **자본 시장 강화**에 주력하면서 세계 경제는 점점 더 자본 시장으로 이동하고 있습니다.
* 🏗 인프라 투자는 성장의 중요한 요소로 여겨지고 있으며, 블랙록은 **새로운 데이터 센터를 위해 300억 달러의 자본과 추가 부채**를 조달할 계획으로 전 세계적으로 인프라 개발이 시급하다는 점을 강조하고 있습니다.
* 💼 프로젝트의 정치화 가능성에도 불구하고, 각국 정부가 경제 안정을 위해 이러한 투자의 필요성을 인식하고 있기 때문에 **인프라 지원을 위한 민간 자본에 대한 강력한 수요**가 있습니다.
* 📉 글로벌 자본 시장의 확장이 오히려 시스템 리스크를 감소시켜 보다 다양한 투자 환경을 조성했다는 주장과 함께 **시장 리스크에 대한 우려를 해소**합니다.
* 🇪🇺 유럽에서 통합된 은행 및 자본 시장 시스템은 경제 발전을 위해 필수적이며, 이는 **블랙록이 유니크레딧과 코메르츠방크 같은 주요 은행에 대규모 투자**를 단행한 것에서도 잘 드러납니다.
* 🇨🇳 중국의 경우 최근 재정 및 통화 정책의 변화로 인해 안정화가 필요하며, **기업들은 리스크를 완화하고 회복력을 확보하기 위해 공급망을 다변화**하고 있습니다.
* 📈 전반적으로 블랙록은 미국 경제에 대해 긍정적인 전망을 유지하며, 어려운 상황에도 불구하고 **2~3%의 지속적인 성장**을 예상하고 전 세계 경제를 끌어올리기 위해 **성장과 인프라 투자에 집중**하는 것이 중요하다고 강조합니다.

Happy anniversary. There was that prospectus the 1st of October 1999 where BlackRock went public. So you're 25 years young. That's great reading, wasn't it? Yeah, it's a really good day for us. It's our 25th anniversary. It's our day that we are closing the gap. And right around this time, we're going to have our 30th anniversary here in Germany. So it's a good day. I'm very pleased that our stock performance is up, you know, close to 11,000% over that time, actually 20 times greater than the S&P. So the market has changed so much in that time. And it's amazing, 25 years, you know, there's a lot more private, there's a lot more credits. You're gone into infrastructure. I'm not going to ask you what 25 years to come will bring. But what are you most optimistic about in the next three years?

Well, I think one of the reasons why our stock has done so well is I think we understood that more and more of the global economy would be moving to the capital markets. And I think all the things you suggested is just an indication of all the movements towards the capital markets. And I think this is going to be broadly a world event. We're seeing more and more countries focusing on their capital markets. A great economy is an economy that has a strong capital markets and a strong banking system. We've seen here in Europe historically a strong banking system and a weak capital markets. That's changing right now here in Europe. But in other countries like Japan, you had the conservative government doubling down their retirement up tax deductibility for our product, that they have a desire to building out their capital markets. In India, Prime Minister Modi is focusing on retirement to build out their capital markets, to broaden their entire economy.

And I think that's the movement for the next 25 years in front of us, a further broadening of the global capital markets, whether that is private debt, infrastructure debt, private equity, venture capital. And I think this is important. And if I look back over the 25 years, one of the strengths that I see is because of the strength of the US capital markets, the US influence in the world has become broader and greater than it was 25 years ago. And that is because of the depth of the capital markets in all of this. Larry, where do you find the best deal? So, for example, in infrastructure, if you look at the closure of JP, it's today, this massive play. What does it mean for integration? What does it mean for actually fundraising for infrastructure? Well, JP is in the midst of closing a $25 billion infrastructure product. The old BlackRock are in for a team is going

to be raising another $0 billion. And then we announce a partnership with Microsoft, NVIDIA, and MGM. We have aspirations of raising $30 billion of equity, and then beyond that, more debt associated when we built out these air data centers. So, to me, this is the dawning of infrastructure. When I look around the world today, I see the inadequacies of infrastructure in almost every country. So, we need to be decarbonized, and we need to be digitizing. We need to be moving forward. We need to be building out more and more. And I think this is one of the big issues. As I wrote in an editorial a few months back in the FTA, and I spoke with the G7, I spoke about every economy needs to focus on growth. There's too much focus on should we lower taxes, should we raise taxes, not enough. How do we stimulate growth? And I think infrastructure is a major component of how we stimulate growth. And we don't because of the breadth of

the capital market, we don't have to rely on federal spending or state spending. There is enough capital in the private sector that will be able to fund these new projects. And so to me, this is the dawning of the new reality that we're going to see broader broadening of public and private investing for infrastructure. Is there a worry that it becomes quite political? So there are a couple of projects, Malaysia and Minnesota, that have been politicized. Is there a danger that infrastructure becomes a new ESG? I see a very different outcome. This is helping government build out their infrastructure. There is no question there may be one project or another project that may be politicized for one reason or another. But overall, in my conversations with politicians worldwide, they know they're in need of more private capital. So I dearly hope it's not politicized. If it's politicized in one location, it

means money going to seek another safer spot. And so you always have those types of risk. But capital is free-moving, and capital is going to be seeking a safe, sound investment. You know, we are the largest retirement manager in the world. Our job is to try to find investments on behalf of our retirees to find safe outcomes over a long period of time. So if there is an event that politicizes, that money will leave, and many will seek another destination. Where does the smart money stay away from? Is there anywhere in the markets where either price to perfection or it's too risky? I know we talk about commercial real estate markets moving up and down. You always see you mentioned like commercial real estate. You see too much money moving in one area. Then it runs away from it. I think that's what markets do. They test the outer boundaries of pricing, and it becomes maybe a level in which that we don't find it's a great

outcome for long-term investing. And then money moves to another destination. I think that's a natural movement. So I'm not worried about one area versus another. The one other thing that I think everybody asks me is, you know, is a market so pricey and yet all these geopolitical issues. I would argue today because of the expansion of the global capital markets, we're diffusing more risk than ever. There is actually less systemic risk today than ever before. You mentioned private credit. Private credit is chiefly matching a liability and an asset together. It's not leveraging 8 to 1 like in a banking system. That's a good example of diffusing some systemic risk. But as more and more capitals broadening out how they invest, where they invest, that actually reduces less concentration in one area. Of course, we've seen in especially in cities, a decline in commercial real

estate. But that's a natural process. And but there's nothing systemic about it. You may lose money on one building, but you're moving into other destinations like data centers. You're moving into different cities that may have rising population growth, but, you know, you can't fight demographics. So there are some cities that are shrinking. Obviously, commercial real estate in those cities are going to be declining with a declining population. All right. What's your play in private credit? How much bigger do you want to. How much do you want in the space? We have large aspirations as we wrote about it last year, and we continue to be building out our private credit area. And there's more to come. We're very excited about our position. If you just think about the role of infrastructure and debt. If you think about what we announced with MGM and Microsoft raising $30 billion of equity, but we're going to

have to. We're going to raise 100 to 20 billion of debt associated with those datacenters. So I actually believe as we move out and building out more and more infrastructure investing, you're going to see more infrastructure or private credit associated with that. And so that will also represent a great, great opportunity. You know, you have a hyperscale or like a metro, like a Microsoft, like Amazon, that you have their credit that you're going to be able to leverage it up and provide returns, stable returns over 15, 20 years, because that's what those leases will be, these data centers. And so you have a great opportunity for long-term investing. Larry, on the U.S. economy, and we talked about U.S. exceptionalism. Do you worry that actually there are two very different outcomes with the US election that could bring the economy in different ways? Both candidates have in many cases very similar views on making the U.S.

even stronger. Both candidates, in their interpretation of how that may happen, may differ. Our job is to work with any political position. Our job is to be working with the U.S. government like we're here in Germany, we're working with the German government. There's going to be an election here next year, too. Our job is to be working with societies and building a platform together. And so we're not trying to make any judgments. But you deploy capital differently. Under President Trump and under President Harris, A, the margin not that much. I think we over-conflate what it means. I mean, I don't think the U.S. is going to be pivoting that much depending on what outcome. You know, we're not focusing on the day-to-day movements of markets for folks who are is the U.S. an exceptional place to invest for five years, ten years, 20 years? That's what we're focusing on. Yes.

There may be moments where you can have a 10% or even 15% or 20% downdraft. Does that represent a major shift, or does it represent an opportunity? And so you have to look at it that way. In most cases over the last 30 years, any time you had a 10% or 20% downdraft, you wanted to be there standing by and buying. And those who ran away over a 20-year horizon have lost a lot of possible return. Are you optimistic about Europe? So you're one of the biggest shareholders in UniCredit. You're one of the biggest shareholders in Commerzbank. Yes. Does a combination need, you know, does it make a bit of impetus for Europe? Does it make sense? I am a very large believer in a banking and a capital markets union. I think that's the strength of the United States. Europe needs to do that. I've read the Draghi report because we

are large shareholders, and both I don't talk about any activity about one organization versus another. But tactically, I look at the strength of the United States, and much of the strength is because of the strength of our capital markets and our banking system. Europe needs a stronger capital market system, and it needs a more unified banking system. And I think that's going to be urgently necessary for Europe to go to the next step. So, as a shareholder, you don't get involved. Have you spoken to the chief executives? I don't talk about it. And too, I don't do any of the voting at BlackRock, but myself. That's not my responsibility. Let me just say, I speak to a lot of executives on this. I speak to a lot of politicians on these matters, and that's between me and the politicians. What's your take on China right now? I would've said before these Chinese

actions of last week in terms of the massive fiscal and monetary policy shifts in China was going from bad to worse. I think they recognize now that their economy was, you know, descending quite rapidly. There was a lack of confidence. And I think we're going to have to wait and see. Is this enough to stabilize the I would say, the failings of of confidence. And as I spoke to more and more executives in China, there was a fear that, you know, we haven't found a bottom yet. Could this be the bottom for China? You know, I think systematically you're going to see more and more companies diversifying their supply chains. And you're seeing that you're seeing India as a great destination. You're seeing Philippines and Vietnam as great destinations closer to the United States. Mexico has been an incredible destination for more and more manufacturing. And so that's not going to change. We are going to see a systematic change

in how we manage supply chains. I think it taught us a lot of lessons on too large a dependencies. And with all the disruption in the supply chains that everybody's waking up to, we need to have a more resilient supply chain. Just before COVID, we talked about we need we need to, you know, the most efficient supply chain when you have those issues. Efficiencies didn't work and we had real big disruptions. And every company is focusing on a more a broadening, a more diversified supply chain so you don't have these type of disruption. And that's a fit that's going to be a downdraft for China. So that's not that will be continuing. You seem very bullish about, I guess, the next 2 to 3 years. But there's a lot of you know, there's China, there's a lot of unsettled politics. There's a I, which I know you're playing through Microsoft and data centers. Is there anything that unsettles you

that the world is living through? Look, I think every moment it's unsettling. The war in Ukraine, which we haven't talked about, is incredibly unsettling and very destabilizing for Europe. The war in the Middle East right now with Lebanon and Gaza is very unsettling. At the same time, as I said, we are broadening the capital markets. And even with these types of disruptions, we're not seeing disruption in the energy market, and we're not seeing more diversification. And so the markets are able to overcome some of these. Now, if they create more supply chain disruptions, they create supply chain disruptions for energy. That changes a whole ecosystem. But right now, I don't see anything that really, to me, is going to be disrupting this tremendous momentum. The amount of trillions of dollars that are going to be necessary for infrastructure investing is going to be vital to uplift the economies worldwide. And this is why I'm still, you know,

urging more and more economy to focus on growth, focus on how to build out their infrastructure that will lift up the economy and create great jobs. When you look at the US economy, you're not you're expecting a soft landing. Or is there a danger actually that that we get? I don't see any landing. The economy is going to continue to grow two plus 3%. I don't even know why we use a landing. Landing last time means it goes to zero. It goes. You know, I don't I know we use those words. It's really fun to talk about going to crash. I have. I've been very consistent. We are not we're not going to have a hard landing. But I don't see a soft landing. We're going to continue we're continuing to move and navigate it, that is. But despite all that, there are segments of the economy that are struggling. There are segments of the economy that

are doing really well. We are, you know, we spend so much time focusing on the segments that are doing poorly. And I'm not trying to suggest that's not the right thing to do, but we're not looking at in the holistic way that other parts of the economy are doing really, really well. Look at corporate earnings overall. They've been very strong, and I think they're going to continue to be very strong. We have, you know, we do have segments of the economy that are very strong. And I think that's why I don't know why we talk about a hard or soft landing. We're continuing. We're going to grow at 2 to 3%. It's the Fed watchers. Blame the Fed watchers because they're all, who are they? I don't follow them, by the way. Look, let me just tell you one thing. Right. Let me just tell you, I think the forward curve is wrong.

We're not going to see, and I think Chairman Powell said that yesterday. You know, we're going to be patient as we. I think the amount of easing that's in the forward curve is crazy. I mean, I do believe there's room for easing more, but not as much as a forward curve would indicate. And this is what a flaw in the markets. It's the markets. Markets move. They have to readjust. And I think yesterday was a small readjustment. I mean, I don't look at this as a problem. You're talking about the tick-tock on the market. I don't spend any time on the tick-tock of the market. I'm aware of it, but I'm not, you know, whether it's, you know, the Federal Reserve tightened, I mean, eases another 150. We'll see. We'll see. I mean, you know, I think we're, I see more policies by more government that

tend to be more inflationary than deflationary. And so, with that in mind, it's hard for me to see another 200 basis points of decline in short rates.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink on US Economy, Trump Vs. Harris, Geopolitical Risks (Full Interview)

The latest financial news and market analysis, direct from Bloomberg TV.

Visit our other YouTube channels:

Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/user/Bloomberg
Bloomberg Quicktake: https://www.youtube.com/@BloombergQuicktakeNow

For more coverage on news, markets and more: http://www.bloomberg.com

Bloomberg Television

블랙록의 창립 25주년과 향후 전망

블랙록은 상장 이후 11,000%에 가까운 주가 상승률을 기록하며 창립 25주년을 맞이했습니다.

블랙록의 성공은 자본 시장 강화에 주력하는 국가가 늘어나면서 전 세계적으로 자본 시장으로의 전환이 이루어지고 있기 때문입니다.

앞으로 블랙록은 특히 사모채권, 인프라, 사모펀드 등 글로벌 자본시장의 미래를 낙관적으로 전망하며 인프라 프로젝트를 위한 자금 조달에 적극적으로 나서고 있습니다.

민간 부문은 새로운 인프라 프로젝트에 자금을 지원하는 데 중요한 역할을 담당하여 연방 및 주 정부 지출에 대한 의존도를 낮출 것으로 예상됩니다.

정치화에 대한 우려도 있지만, 전반적인 추세는 민관 투자 협력이 확대되는 방향으로 가고 있습니다.

안전한 투자처를 찾기 위한 자본의 이동은 자연스러운 현상이며, 글로벌 자본 시장의 확장은 현재 시스템 리스크를 확산시키고 있습니다.

부동산과 개인 신용의 역학 관계

부동산 투자는 변동성이 커서 한 지역의 손실이 다른 지역의 이익으로 상쇄될 수 있지만, 인구통계학적 추세는 기회를 형성하는 데 중요한 역할을 합니다.

특히 데이터 센터를 중심으로 한 인프라 투자에서 민간 신용 영역을 확장할 야심찬 계획을 가지고 있습니다.

미국 경제의 미래는 다가오는 대선의 영향을 받을 수 있지만, 회사는 어떤 정치적 입장과도 협력하는 것을 목표로 하고 있으며 장기적인 투자 기회에 집중하고 있습니다.

시장 하락세와 유럽의 금융 미래

10%에서 20%의 시장 하락은 종종 매수 기회로 여겨지며, 이러한 하락기에 투자한 사람들에게는 보상이 주어지는 역사가 있습니다.

발표자는 미국의 강점을 재현하기 위해 유럽에서 통합된 은행 및 자본 시장 시스템이 필요하다고 믿습니다.

중국은 최근 재정 및 통화 정책의 변화를 통해 침체된 경제를 안정시키고 인도, 필리핀, 베트남, 멕시코와 같은 국가가 인기있는 제조 목적지가 되면서 공급망을 다변화하는 것을 목표로 하고 있습니다.

코로나19 팬데믹은 지나치게 의존적이고 효율적인 공급망의 위험성을 강조하면서 기업들이 공급망 전략을 다각화하고 확장하도록 이끌었습니다.

우크라이나와 중동에서 발생한 전쟁과 같은 글로벌 혼란은 불안하지만 아직 에너지 시장에 큰 혼란을 일으키지는 않았습니다.

연사는 경제 성장에 대해 낙관적인 전망을 유지하며 경제를 활성화하고 일자리를 창출하기 위한 인프라 투자의 중요성을 강조했습니다.

우려 속에서도 경제의 견고한 부문

어려움을 겪고 있는 부문에 집중하고 있음에도 불구하고 경제의 다른 부분은 호조를 보이고 있으며, 기업 실적 호조는 계속될 것으로 예상됩니다.

연사는 경착륙 또는 연착륙이라는 개념에 동의하지 않으며, 2~3%의 꾸준한 성장을 예상합니다.

이들은 경기 완화에 대한 포워드 커브가 과장되었다고 생각하며 시장의 점진적인 조정을 예상합니다.