비트코인 가격 분석: 추세, 위험 및 미래 예측

### 비트코인 시장 분석: 동향, 예측, 투자 전략
* 📈 이전 분석에서 비트코인 가격은 **60,000달러에서 65,000달러로 상승**했으며, 마지막 주간 캔들은 **64,200달러로 마감**하며 강한 상승 모멘텀을 보여주었습니다.
* 🔍 현재 비트코인은 **2021 저항선에서 횡보**하고 있으며, **매수세가 시장을 지배**하고 있음을 보여주는 강세장을 형성하고 있습니다.
* 📉 그러나 일일 시간대에서 비트코인은 하락 추세 채널에 머물러 있으며, 매수 주문은 약 **$61,49**이며, 목표는 **$80,000에서 $85,000**로 설정된 강세 플래그 설정을 활성화하려면 이 패턴을 깨뜨려야 합니다.
* 💬 9월에 금리 인하 가능성이 **99.99%인 연방준비제도의 통화정책이 긴축에서 완화로 전환**될 경우 비트코인 가격 동학에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* 🧮 과거 데이터에 따르면 비트코인이 3분기에 긍정적인 성과를 거둔다면, **미국 대선 이후 강한 상승세가 예상되는 4분기에도 이전과 마찬가지로 이러한 추세**를 이어갈 것으로 보입니다.
* 🛑 투자자들은 현재 **900억 달러 이상을 안전한 미국 머니마켓 펀드로 옮기는 등 신중한 태도**를 보이고 있으며, 이는 잠재적인 경기 침체에 대한 우려로 **비트코인 같은 위험 자산에 영향을 미칠 수 있다**는 점을 시사합니다.
* 📊 T 토큰과 PP 코인을 포함한 다양한 알트코인을 분석한 결과, 단기 투자 전략을 결정할 때 **뉴스와 구조적 패턴에 대한 시장의 반응**이 중요하다는 것을 알 수 있었습니다.
* 💡 전반적으로 2024년과 2025년 초에 명확한 추세가 나타날 때까지 자산을 축적하는 데 중점을 두고 **불확실성이 커질수록 달러 코스트 애버리징 전략**을 유지하는 것이 좋습니다.

비트코인의 가격은 변화하는 경제 신호 속에서 중요한 지지선과 저항선을 탐색하면서 상당한 변동성을 보일 것으로 예상됩니다.

In the previous video, I analyzed that the price of Bitcoin had increased from the $60,000 mark to the $65,000 mark. Is there still an opportunity in the near future? Hello everyone, I am Huy. In the previous video, I shared with you that traders are opening a lot of short positions. This means that the price of Bitcoin is likely to reverse from the $60,000 area and rise to the $65,000 area. Currently, we can see that Bitcoin closed the last weekly candle as a strong bullish candle, closing at a price of $64,200. We can observe that, at this moment, on the weekly timeframe, the price of Bitcoin is still moving sideways at the old resistance area from 2021, which was the peak of the 2021 uptrend. As of now, we have experienced three years since that point.

The phase of creating a peak in the year 2021, and currently, I see that in the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has just formed a bullish setup, which is a bullish engulfing candle. The candle from two weeks ago was a bearish candle with a very small body, and this is a doji candle. However, the candle from last week is a very strong bullish candle, which completely engulfed the selling pressure from the previous week. This shows that buyers are fully dominating the current phase. But if we look at a slightly smaller timeframe, which is the daily timeframe, Bitcoin is still just moving sideways within this trend channel and has not broken through this pattern yet. In the current moment, if Bitcoin wants to rise...

To gain strength, it needs to break through this downward trend channel, and from there, it will return to an upward trend. It activates a bullish flag pattern, and the upward wave from the beginning of this year is like a flagpole, while the current phase is the flag itself. Our buy order is at the area of $6,149, with a stop loss at $52,500. Currently, this order is still yielding a profit of about over $1,000. Our target level is around $80,000 to $85,000. If we look at Bitcoin's sideways movement, it has been in this range for over 160 days. If Bitcoin breaks out of this sideways phase and accumulative period, it is highly likely that its price will experience significant volatility. If it breaks upward, it could increase in value very strongly.

very quickly in a short period of time. And if it breaks down, then we will also see that the price will drop very sharply and quickly in a short time. This is because a spring that has been compressed for a long time, when it releases, will have a very strong force, right? From my personal perspective, I still believe that the price of Bitcoin will remain sideways until it breaks out of the K model trend towards an upward direction. Only then will I feel secure with a long position on Bitcoin in this daily timeframe. On a smaller timeframe, such as the 4-hour chart, I see that Bitcoin has just created a short-term uptrend structure, which is characterized by higher highs and higher lows. The price has also...

Đóng đến vượt qua vùng 62.700 đô la giống như các video trước mình đã có phân tích với các bạn. Đây là một giai đoạn mà nó đã xác nhận rằng cấu trúc xu hướng đã nghiêng về cấu trúc xu hướng tăng trong ngắn hạn. Hai khu vực mà chúng ta có thể canh những setup mang chiều hướng tăng giá để chúng ta có thể mua thuận theo xu hướng đó là vùng 60.000 đến 62.000 đô la và vùng thứ hai là vùng 56.000 đến 58.000 đô la. Trong thời gian tới, mình sẽ chờ giá của Bitcoin giảm về một trong hai vùng này và có những setup mang chiều hướng tăng giá như cụm nến nhấn chìm tăng hoặc là nến PIN ba tăng giá. Thì mình sẽ mở các vị thế. Trong lần phát biểu gần nhất của Chủ tịch Fed, Jerome Powell, ông ấy đã nói rằng thời điểm hiện tại là một thời điểm để họ có thể điều chỉnh chính sách, và đây là một tín hiệu mà mình thấy.

It is like a signal that they will change their policy from tightening monetary policy to a phase of loosening monetary policy by reducing interest rates. Typically, after the monetary tightening policy is shifted to loosening, they will print money and inject a lot of money into the economy. When there is more money in the economy, risk assets will benefit as the flow of money gradually moves into investment channels. This is also a confirmation signal that there is a 99.99% chance the Fed will reduce interest rates in the upcoming September meeting. According to market predictions, 71.5% of traders and experts believe that the Fed will lower rates from 5.5% to 5.25%, meaning they will reduce the interest rate by 0.25 in the meeting.

The upcoming rate hike is predicted to be only 0.5 percentage points, according to forecasts. When the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates, it indicates that they are observing some economic issues. I am uncertain whether the price of Bitcoin will surge significantly or if there will be a flash dump, which is a sharp decline due to economic events, similar to what happened in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic when it dropped from around $10,000 to $4,000 before rebounding strongly. However, I am not sure if we will experience such a drastic event during this period, especially since Bitcoin ETFs have already entered the market. Therefore, I believe the probability of a black swan event occurring is lower. This is a video showing that...

the balance sheets of the major central banks around the world, which are the Federal Reserve in the United States, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan, are currently being discussed. We see that the black line represents the total assets on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank, while the blue line represents the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, and the red line represents the assets on the balance sheet of Japan. Notably, since the end of 2021, all three central banks have begun to reduce the levels of assets on their balance sheets, meaning they are selling bonds to pull cash back in. This move aims to combat inflation and withdraw liquidity from the financial markets as well as the global market.

The crypto market and the stock market are showing signs of reaching the peak of the uptrend cycle in 2021. This is also the period during which it has tightened since 2021 until now. In the near future, we will see that when the blue line, which represents buying into various asset classes in the balance sheet, starts to rise, this blue line will increase. Consequently, central banks from other countries, such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the People's Bank of China, will also begin to take similar actions. They will start buying various assets and injecting money into the economy. At that point, the flow of money and the amount of money circulating in the market will increase significantly, flowing into investment channels.

And that is a very good signal for the end of this year and the beginning of 2025. This is data I have collected, which shows that investors worldwide are feeling anxious as interest rates begin to decline. In past data, when interest rates started to drop, it often led to an economic recession or crisis, causing the stock market and other risky investment channels to decline sharply. Therefore, over 90 billion dollars have flowed into the U.S. money market fund, which is a fund that holds money in the short term and is very safe for investors. Investors can withdraw their money at any time. From my personal perspective, this action by investors in the market indicates that they are very concerned.

Be cautious because at this current stage, the S&P 500 index in the U.S. is continuously rising and breaking previous highs. Bitcoin is experiencing the same trend; it has also surpassed its previous high of $69,000 earlier this year. Therefore, when the Fed starts to lower interest rates, it will pose significant risks for investment channels that carry high risks, such as the stock market or the crypto market. This is also the reason why they have poured in a significant amount of money—over $90 billion, which is double compared to last month—into U.S. money market funds. These funds are considered very safe, and they will receive lower interest rates compared to the potential returns from investing in high-risk assets like stocks at this time, especially since prices have risen sharply.

They no longer want to take such risks, so they have invested money into safe funds like this. When capital starts flowing into these safe funds, we see that the amount of money flowing into riskier investment channels tends to be less. When the money is sitting in these money market funds, we will notice that it requires a strong action: the price of Bitcoin and the entire market need to rise significantly and clearly establish an upward trend. Only then will this capital flow into the market to buy in a fear of missing out (FOMO) manner, which will further strengthen the market. This is a statistic showing the price performance of Bitcoin over each quarter in previous years, from 2013 until now, and through this statistic, I have...

Recognizing a conclusion, if the price of Bitcoin in the third quarter shows positive performance, meaning it increases, it will also lead to an increase in the fourth quarter. This has happened in 2013, 2017, and in 2020. In 2021, we observe that there was one year that failed, which was 2018. From 2013 until now, there is a high probability supporting the idea that if the third quarter grows, the fourth quarter will also grow, with only one failure in 2018. When we shift to the monthly performance, we see that during August and September, on average, Bitcoin does not increase or decrease significantly. However, in the periods of October, November, and December in previous years, there has been a consistent pattern.

The average performance level has increased from 20 minutes to a maximum of 46 minutes, which you can see in the last months of the year. Here is a chart showing the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the presidential elections in the United States. Since 2012, we have observed that the blue lines represent the presidential elections in the U.S., while the yellow line indicates the halving periods of Bitcoin. We can see that after these two events occurred in the past, the price of Bitcoin consistently rose, reaching higher peaks than the previous ones. In the cycle of 2024 to 2025, we have already experienced the fourth halving event of Bitcoin, represented by the yellow line. The U.S. presidential election will take place around November to December this year, so after this period...

In 2025, we will likely see a strong upward wave in Bitcoin's price if this data is repeated. Next, I will analyze the altcoins that you commented on in the previous video. First, we definitely cannot overlook the T token from Telegram. This coin is currently facing some short-term pressure, and there have been significant news developments recently. The founder of Telegram was arrested in France, and following this news, the price of T dropped from $7 to around $5, which is a decrease of about 20%. According to technical analysis, the price of T is currently at a very strong support level on the daily timeframe. If this support level is breached, that will be the moment when T shifts into a downward trend. In the previous video, I opened a...

The order is an order for Bitcoin and a long position for this token because I expect the price to continue the previous upward trend and keep increasing. However, unfortunately, its price has dropped due to bad news about the founder of Telegram being detained in France. This detention could last until August 28, which is tomorrow. If by tomorrow or the day after there is news that the founder has been released, I believe the price will start to rise again. However, there is also a very high risk that if the founder of Telegram is not released, I think the price of this token will continue to decrease. In the previous video, I opened a long position, but I cut my losses early because I saw that this news could lead to further declines.

I have cut my loss at around $1,296 for this large position. The entry price was $6.6, and I cut it at about $5.12. However, I am currently holding a position with a loss, which is a near position. I have a long position at $3.7, and its current price is $4.9, giving me a profit of $4,384. As I have analyzed in previous videos, it is in an uptrend, and the downtrend has not yet been confirmed. Therefore, this could just be a false breakdown. I opened a long position near the $4 area, and I am hoping it will reach $6, which is a 50% increase, not including the margin. The current price is $4.91, and this position is slightly above break-even, so I will adjust my stop-loss.

Break-even point means that if the price of Near decreases, we will be cut off at break-even, not at a loss. Finally, I will analyze a coin related to Mcoin, which is the PP coin. On the daily time frame, the price of PP has broken through the downward trend line and has created a bearish structure, with the subsequent lows being lower than the previous lows and the subsequent highs also being lower than the previous highs. Therefore, it is currently in a downtrend structure. If we buy during this phase, it will be riskier because we do not know how far this structure will decline. If you observe closely, we have a head and shoulders pattern that has already been confirmed. This is the left shoulder, this is the head, and this is the right shoulder. The price has also broken through the next line.

The old road here has many possibilities, so this asset may continue to decrease in the near future. In summary, when the Fed starts to lower interest rates, we should also shift to a cautious mode. Currently, a lot of money is flowing into safe funds in the U.S. Until the end of this year, many investors will be confused because they do not know whether a recession or economic crisis will occur. Therefore, they are pouring a lot of money into low-risk assets. This is also the time when the strategy of dollar-cost averaging every month will prove effective. Personally, I am still applying the strategy of dollar-cost averaging every month, and I will continue to accumulate until the end.

In 2024 and early 2025, I am not an expert, so the information in this video should only be used as a reference and should not be considered investment advice. If you need me to analyze any specific coins in the upcoming videos, please remember to comment below this video.

Bitcoin Tăng Ngắn Hạn: Thời Điểm Tham Lam Hay Thận Trọng? || Bitcoin hôm nay

MarginATM

비트코인의 가격 움직임과 미래 잠재력

비트코인 가격은 60,000달러에서 65,000달러로 상승했으며, 지난 주간 캔들은 강한 강세 패턴으로 64,200달러로 마감했습니다.

현재 비트코인은 2021년부터 이어진 기존 저항선에서 횡보하고 있으며, 강세 양봉 캔들은 매수 우위를 나타냅니다.

비트코인이 힘을 얻고 잠재적으로 목표 수준인 80,000~85,000달러에 도달하려면 하락 추세 채널에서 벗어나야 하며, 현재 범위를 벗어나면 상당한 변동성이 예상됩니다.

비트코인의 단기 추세와 연방준비제도의 정책 변화

비트코인 가격은 최근 62,700달러를 돌파하며 단기 상승 추세를 보이고 있으며, 주요 매수 구간은 60,000~62,000달러와 56,000~58,000달러로 확인되었습니다.

연방준비제도이사회는 최근 성명에서 긴축에서 완화로의 통화정책 전환을 시사했으며, 다가오는 9월 회의에서 금리를 인하할 확률은 99.

2021년 말부터 주요 중앙은행들이 공동으로 진행하고 있는 자산 축소는 인플레이션에 대응하고 금융시장에서 유동성을 회수하는 것을 목표로 합니다.

시장 변화의 징후: 암호화폐와 주식 트렌드

암호화폐와 주식 시장은 상승 추세 사이클의 정점에 가까워지고 있으며, 중앙은행이 자산 매입을 늘리고 경제에 자금을 투입할 것으로 예상됩니다.

이러한 자금 유입은 2023년 말과 2025년 초에 긍정적인 신호로 여겨지고 있습니다.

그러나 금리 하락으로 인해 글로벌 투자자들의 불안감이 커지면서 미국 머니마켓 펀드로 자금이 대거 유입되고 있어 미래에 대한 경계와 우려가 나타나고 있습니다.

안전자산 펀드가 위험한 투자에 미치는 영향과 비트코인의 성과

투자자들은 안전한 펀드로 이동하고 있으며, 이로 인해 더 위험한 투자 채널로 유입되는 자본이 줄어들고 있습니다.

비트코인 가격이 크게 상승해야 FOMO에 의한 자본 유입을 촉발할 수 있습니다.

과거 데이터에 따르면 2018년을 제외하고 비트코인의 3분기 실적과 이후 4분기 성장률 사이에는 강한 상관관계가 있었습니다.

텔레그램의 T 토큰은 창립자가 프랑스에서 체포된 이후 7달러에서 5달러로 하락하는 등 단기적인 하락 압력을 받고 있습니다.

현재 가격은 강력한 지지선에 있으며, 이를 돌파할 경우 하락 추세로 이어질 수 있습니다.

설립자의 석방 또는 구금 지속 여부가 향후 토큰의 가격 움직임을 결정짓는 중요한 요소가 될 것입니다.

현재 하락 추세에 있는 PP 코인의 약세 구조에 초점을 맞춰 니어 가격 하락의 손익분기점을 강조하고 있습니다.

확인된 헤드 앤 숄더 패턴과 깨진 추세선은 PP의 추가 가격 하락을 시사합니다.

현재 경제 불확실성으로 인해 투자자들은 저위험 자산으로 이동하고 있으며, 달러 코스트 애버리징이 권장 전략이 되고 있습니다.