비트코인 생태계: 알트코인 약세와 금리 영향

### 비트코인 생태계 현황, 이자율, 향후 가격 전망
* 🌐 비트코인의 전반적인 생태계는 좋은 상태가 아니며, **알트코인의 성능은 비트코인에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.**
* 🔼 "비트코인에 대한 부정적인 소식 없이 **모든 것이 순조롭게 진행**되면 좋을 것 같습니다."
* 🏦 11~12월경 금리 인상 가능성이 있다는 추측이 있지만, **가을 이후로 연기될 수도 있습니다.**
* 💹 "작년에 금리를 인상했지만 **실제로 비트코인 가격은 많이 올랐습니다.**"
* 📊 나스닥과 비트코인의 상관관계는 여전히 높으며, **이 관계를 면밀히 모니터링할 필요**가 있습니다.
* ⛓ 현재 **14만 대의 마투 물량**이 출시될 예정이라는 정보가 있습니다.
* 📈 " **2억 원까지 바로 가기는 어려울 것 같지만,** 잘 되면 **1억 2천만 원에서 1억 3천만 원 정도**는 가능할 것 같습니다.
* 🛒 투자할 때는 **단계적으로 진입**하고 충동적인 결정으로 계획을 변경하지 않는 것이 좋습니다.

현재 전반적인 비트코인 생태계는 알트코인 약세와 금리 인상 가능성으로 인해 시장에 부정적인 영향을 미치며 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

The overall ecosystem of Bitcoin is not in great shape right now. Altcoins performing poorly could also become a negative factor for Bitcoin. The ecosystem, including both Bitcoin and altcoins, should be doing well. Lately, altcoins seem to be showing some weakness. My name is Kiwest Sim Ji-yoon. I am the representative of Kiwest 77 and also serve as the office manager of the Digital Economy Association. Kiwest's blockchain insight also operates a YouTube channel. Most of the news that has been reported is now being summarized. It has been reported that there is a possibility of an interest rate hike around November to December. I also listened to Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, speaking live in the early morning. How did you feel about the stance he expressed?

The thing is, when the indicators are good, it means that the inflation rate indicator came out at around 3.3%. If the inflation rate is in the 2% range, we might be able to lower the interest rates a bit. Although it was expressed not in a hawkish way but more in a dovish tone, if we were to put it in English, it would be not now. It's not yet the time. There are various opinions from several members as well, feeling a bit delayed. So, it might be a bit later in the fall this year when the interest rates could be lowered. It seems to be taking a somewhat passive stance, which is also delicately timed with the U.S. presidential election and the lunar new year. Before that, the current president, Biden, well, he can't do everything as he wishes, but it will have some influence.

I think we need to be a little careful about raising interest rates quickly. It seems like it's not the current global stance. I remember back in around 2011, the US implemented quantitative easing on a large scale, releasing a lot of funds. They wanted to tighten it gradually over the years, but found it difficult once they loosened it significantly. We all know this as a learning effect. Therefore, it might be burdensome to suddenly implement quantitative easing. Currently, it seems like the US is trying to control through interest rates without resorting to quantitative easing. In my unique opinion, last year...

So, they have raised interest rates now. However, the price of Bitcoin has actually increased a lot. Therefore, in the news, they talk about how there are many fluctuations due to interest rates. In reality, discussing whether price adjustments come with interest rates is somewhat nonsensical. I will explain why. In 2023, the relationship between the Nasdaq market and the price of Bitcoin was at 74.3. By May 2024, when looked at cumulatively, it was at 73.7%. It fluctuated almost at 74%. However, Bitcoin had a high correlation with Nasdaq prices. Normally, we think that if interest rates go down, Nasdaq rises, and if interest rates go up, Nasdaq falls. But from last year to this year, Nasdaq has been continuously rising. So, we need to look at it from a different perspective.

Simply, because the current logic or flow is significantly disrupted, it is expected that interest rates will naturally decline. While it is possible to anticipate and have expectations, many of those relationships were already disrupted last year. Therefore, we need to look at the numbers more objectively and properly assess the relationships with the indicators mentioned earlier. As I mentioned earlier, the correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin is the highest, even when looking at 2023 and 2024. Additionally, there is the Coinbase stock price as an independent indicator. Since Coinbase is listed on Nasdaq, it does not mean that if Coinbase rises, Bitcoin will rise. Rather, it means that their movements are in the same direction. Therefore, it is necessary to closely observe this relationship. It would be helpful to keep this in mind. So, Coinbase.

If the price suddenly drops, Bitcoin could also move a bit, right? In fact, there is a tendency for Coinbase to follow the price of Bitcoin, and the opposite can also happen. So, I would like to provide you with an informative response. Currently, I have some numerical data as a reference. After reviewing it, I can tell you that there is information about a Matu volume of 140,000 units that is expected to be released. Now, in terms of Bitcoin physical ETFs, initially, Grayscale held around 627,000 Bitcoin units. However, this amount has now decreased to 280,000 units. This is a significant reduction. Currently, the total Bitcoin volume held by the 11 companies is around 880,000 units. Therefore, Grayscale has reduced its volume, and

Excluding the holidays, the brokerage firm has now received about 600,000 units. So, as of today, excluding holidays, the net trading days for Bitcoin cash ETF are 109 days. Today is the 11th day, and the data has been released. However, based on the 109 days, dividing 600,000 units by 10 days, it means that about 55,000 Bitcoin units can be covered per day. Assuming that 140,000 units can be divided by 5,500 units, if that amount is inflowing every day, it will be covered in about 25 days, so there is not much to worry about. The second thing is that not all the volume will be released in a day at Mount Gok, and even among the released volume, some people may sell later. It's a bit unfortunate, but it's been a long time since this happened, so there are people who are not reachable, people who have passed away, and so on.

Due to the fact that the release of 140,000 bitcoins is also due to the launch of a bitcoin physical ETF a few years ago, I think it would have been a huge concern if 140,000 were released back then. But now, I explained logically and numerically that there is no need to worry about such a concern. Now, I want to talk about some different aspects. In fact, there doesn't seem to be a big problem with Bitcoin at the moment. Recently, there was a hacking incident in Japan, with a scale of a few hundred billion, but the market is not shaken by such events as it used to be. However, there is a big issue here. That is, Bitcoin currently has a market share of about 53%, while the remaining 47% is the altcoin market. In a way, Bitcoin is like the bride in the market.

Should we go and get married? If we want to make it sound fun, I am being listed on the Nasdaq market, receiving love, attracting funds, but the problem is that the funds are flowing into the Nasdaq stock market. For example, the funds are not flowing into cryptocurrency exchanges. What we expected when the Bitcoin ETF was launched was that when funds flow into Bitcoin, some funds would flow into altcoins, and the entire ecosystem, not all but many of the various items, would rise. I thought it would flow somewhat that way, and until the first half of the year, until March and April, it did. However, from the end of March, Bitcoin fell, altcoins fell, and Bitcoin recovered quite a bit, but altcoins have been falling for a few days now. So, I

Bitcoin can feel like big brother and little brother, or like siblings. Big brother is fine now, but because the younger ones are struggling a lot and having a hard time, if it continues like this, the overall ecosystem's condition is not great. So, this in itself could be a negative factor for altcoins that are not doing well, becoming a threat to Bitcoin. So, in conclusion, the ecosystem, including Bitcoin and altcoins, should be doing well now. Recently, people may be worried about altcoins, showing some weakness. Also, various rumors about delisting are circulating. So, overall, it would be great if everything goes well together. This way, there will be no negative news for Bitcoin, and this year, there doesn't seem to be any major disasters like a huge hack on Bitcoin.

I will tell you this much. I may not have a perfect answer to whether it can be a reason for the rise now, but in 2023, based on Hana, Bitcoin broke through from 20 million won in January to about 100 million won. It's now fluctuating around 92 million won, so there is a significant peak. It showed a surge of more than four times. However, now I am actually updating the Bitcoin ETF every day for the 109th day to analyze the flow of funds and trading volume. About a month ago, it reached 83 trillion won based on Hana. I recorded that. This inflow includes the existing Grayscale. It didn't keep exceeding 83 trillion won, but it retreated. It dropped by 10 trillion won to 73 trillion won, and now it is recovering slightly to 77-78 trillion won.

If you observe, I will also mention the quantity. As of the end of April, we had 830,000 units. However, now we have 880,000 units. If we look at it, an increase of about 50,000 units could be seen as a significant increase or a small increase. It is true that there seems to be a slowdown now. Therefore, if a large amount of funds flow in explosively at this point, causing no buying to happen, the price could... Actually, predicting the price is very difficult. However, there is one good thing. The halving took place around May 20th. Now that the halving has passed, there are still 11 major mining companies in the U.S. No major incidents like mergers or bankruptcies have occurred yet, but such events could happen, considering the logic of supply and demand.

Now it's confirmed that the decrease in supply is happening. So, until the end of this year, even though it won't act as a huge positive factor just because a day or two passes, as time goes on, it will become a definite fact that the decrease in supply is evident to everyone. Therefore, these aspects could become factors driving the rise of Bitcoin. For example, the likelihood of positive events like the launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF is somewhat low. Consequently, rather than experiencing sudden explosive and steep increases, there might be a possibility of a rise, but more towards the end of the year, institutions are also expected to buy Bitcoin spot ETFs. Institutional investors are expected to observe a bit more rather than making quick moves in that direction. This is how I see it from that perspective. In the case of Vanguard, in fact, the CEO of Vanguard

Because we don't really know what's in that person's heart, but recently, other institutions like ARK 221 shares, for example, call her the money tree sister. In fact, she said she wouldn't participate in the Ethereum ETF. When we look at those things, from Vanguard's perspective, the top spot is already occupied by Block, followed by Grayscale and Fidelity. These global companies hold the majority of the market share, and then ARK 2 owns 5.5% above that, with two digits or more, and below that, around 1%. Vanguard is actually trying to enter as a latecomer now. In fact, there is fierce competition in fees, and the fees are very low, so the possibility of entering as a latecomer is not high. There may be a slight chance, for example, but this is my speculation.

The Bitcoin ETF has been delayed, and now we are seeing the Ethereum ETF coming out. After that, Ethereum could also be launched, and when another altcoin is released, we can enter at that time. So far, looking at the stance of companies like Vanguard, which actually do not have a Bitcoin spot ETF, it doesn't seem that difficult to jump in. However, within Vanguard, there may be consumers or investors who invest in something like this. When voices asking Vanguard to allow investments without transferring funds from our side become louder, I think there is a possibility of participating. Talking about the price, no matter what is said, the fact is that it seems to be speculative. Some people may think it will go up, and then those who hold it will benefit from it.

As I mentioned earlier, there are parts where I have to speak a bit dryly and objectively. If you currently hold some and have slipped a bit, it's not heavily down from the peak, so it might be better to just hold and observe. For those who are considering entering as new investors but are unsure about the timing, as I always say, don't just buy a lot at once at a single point. Right now, the price is around $6,000 to $6,200 in dollars and about 92 million Korean Won. In Korean Won terms, if Bitcoin, for example, reaches 80 million Won, I'll try investing around 20% of my funds once, and then wait. If it goes up, I'll wait again, or if it drops a bit more, say around the 70 million Won range, then I'll...

I would like to try buying at the first support level, and I want to suggest that it's better to enter in stages. We shouldn't always go all-in at once. If you gradually invest a little by little, it seems okay. That's what I want to advise. It's like a trade-off relationship. When you choose one thing, you can't choose another. There may be opportunity costs, but it's good to invest like this. For example, if I plan to buy when it reaches 80 million won, then I'll buy if it reaches 80 million won. If not, then not. You should think like that. For instance, some people may feel tempted and say, I'll buy when it reaches 80 million won, but then they find something else interesting. They decide not to buy when it reaches 80 million won, but Bitcoin ends up approaching 80 million won.

The strategy has changed again. Oh, it has reached 80 million won. We shouldn't do it this way. When we invest, we need to set up that plan. The best way is for what we think in our minds to match our actions. So, if the PD who asked the question wanted to buy when it reached 80 million won, and let's say you invest 10 million won, then you can place an order to buy 2 million won at 80 million and another 2 million won at around 75 million. Then, when that time comes, even if I don't intervene, it will automatically buy. I think this kind of mechanical trading is a much more effective way in trading. When it reaches 80 million won, the plan we originally set was made two months ago, so it may change again. That's just how people are, and it's inevitable. Actually, last year, I, I wrote a book.

I had written a book about investing in the West, and based on the criteria I had recorded, it was scheduled to be published in September. If Bitcoin touches 100 million won even once, I actually saw it as around autumn, but it came early this year in spring. The next step was mentioned to reach 200 million won, but the timing for that 200 million won was not specified. However, the point of breaking 100 million won was a kind of milestone for me, and I observed it for about a year after it was published. I thought the timing came a bit early, right? So, since it touched around 100 million won in spring this year, even if it reaches the next step of 200 million won, I assume it may take at least another year. Honestly, this year seems a bit challenging, but if it goes well, it could go up to around 100 million won, maybe 120 to 130 million won.

I think I can go, but it seems difficult to go straight to 200 million. If the flow goes like 120 million, 130 million, 140 million now, whether it's spring, summer, or fall next year, wouldn't I challenge 200 million once? I am also making a forecast now.

비트코인 반등 신호 포착했다. '이때부터' 호재가 쏟아집니다. 비트코인 폭락할 때마다 이렇게 사 모으세요 (심지훈 대표, 키웨스트 / 1부)

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웅달 책방

비트코인의 전반적인 생태계는 알트코인의 부진으로 인해 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.

연방준비제도 의장이 신중한 입장을 표명하면서 금리 인상 가능성에 대한 추측이 나오고 있습니다.

시장에서 관찰되는 역학 관계의 변화로 인해 금리, 나스닥 가격, 비트코인 변동 간의 관계가 재평가되고 있습니다.

나스닥과 비트코인의 상관관계는 특히 2023년과 2024년에 강세를 보였습니다.

코인베이스의 주가는 비트코인의 움직임을 나타내는 중요한 독립 지표이기도 합니다.

그레이스케일은 비트코인 물량을 크게 줄였지만, 14만 비트코인을 방출하더라도 큰 문제는 없을 것으로 예상됩니다.

최근 일본에서 발생한 대규모 해킹 사건과 같은 사건에도 불구하고 시장은 큰 영향을 받지 않고 있지만 비트코인의 시장 점유율은 현재 약 53%에 달합니다.

나스닥 상장이 비트코인과 알트코인에 미치는 영향

나스닥 상장으로 인해 비트코인에는 상당한 자금이 유입되었지만 알트코인에는 자금이 유입되지 않아 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

불균등한 자금 흐름은 전반적인 암호화폐 생태계에 위협이 되고 있으며, 알트코인 상장 폐지 루머까지 더해져 우려를 더하고 있습니다.

비트코인 ETF를 통한 자금 흐름과 거래량을 매일 분석하면 상당한 정점을 보이지만 약간의 변동이 있어 시장에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

비트코인의 현재 상태와 상승 가능성

비트코인 공급이 감소하면서 향후 비트코인 가격이 상승할 가능성이 있습니다.

비트코인 현물 ETF가 출시될 가능성은 낮지만, 기관 투자자들은 연말에 비트코인을 매수할 것으로 예상됩니다.

뱅가드는 치열한 경쟁에 직면해 있으며 후발주자로서 시장에 진입할 가능성이 낮음.

이더리움 ETF와 알트코인 투자가 암호화폐 시장에 미치는 잠재적 영향

비트코인 ETF가 연기된 후 이더리움 ETF가 출시될 예정이어서 암호화폐 시장에 새로운 투자 기회가 열릴 것으로 보입니다.

비트코인의 가격 변동으로 인해 투기가 발생하고 있어 투자에 신중하게 접근하고 점진적으로 시장에 진입할 것을 제안합니다.

한 번에 올인하기보다는 기회 비용을 고려하고 단계적인 투자 방식을 채택하여 암호화폐의 변동성을 헤쳐나가는 것이 좋습니다.

비트코인의 가치에 따른 투자 전략 수정

강연자는 비트코인이 특정 가치에 도달하면 미리 설정한 계획에 따라 구매 프로세스를 자동화할 것을 제안하며, 정신적 계획에 맞는 행동의 필요성을 강조합니다.

비트코인의 가치가 예상보다 빨리 1억 원에 도달했으며, 2억 원에 도달하려면 1년이 더 걸릴 것으로 예상하면서 투자에 관한 책을 집필할 계획이라고 언급합니다.

연사는 비트코인의 가치가 가까운 시일 내에 1억 2천만 원에서 1억 3천만 원에 도달할 가능성이 있다고 조심스럽게 낙관하고 있습니다.