The presidential chief of staff, Sung Tae-yoon, mentioned on September 10th that there is a significant increase in births, marking the first reversal that no previous administration has achieved. He stated that the efforts made so far are yielding visible results. Regarding the four major reforms, he has set the response to low birth rates as a key policy goal. When looking at the statistics, it shows that in the second quarter of this year, there were 57,000 births, which is a 1.2% increase compared to the same period last year. He mentioned this in May, indicating that the second quarter's increase demonstrates success. This reflects a very narrow worldview. Hello, I am Choi Boo-sim. There have been reports of a sharp rise in birth rates, so let's take a closer look. First, the policy chief from Yongsan stated that the reversal in birth rates has already occurred and is expected to be maintained, which is something no government has accomplished before.

I had an interview, and it really matched the title of the Tower Interview. I was interviewed by the Chosun Biz, with the Presidential Chief of Staff, Seong Tae-yoon. On September 10th, he met with the Chosun Biz business group in China and mentioned that the birth rate is increasing. He stated that for the first time, a significant reversal is happening, something that has not been achieved in previous administrations. He said that the efforts made so far are yielding visible results. 

In fact, I have been quite critical of the current government's new living policy, and I believe it should simply be called a housing price support policy instead of being marketed as a new living initiative. The new living policy aims to provide benefits to households that have given birth, but it does not actually aim to increase the birth rate. It is more about making it easier for existing households to acquire housing. Of course, existing households are not the main focus.

It's not that it has to be received, but since they have made it seem like they are going to improve the birth rate, I think that policy is deceptive. To increase the birth rate, we need to implement policies specifically aimed at that. This is obviously just a real estate stimulus policy. If you want to stimulate real estate, just say that. I tend to criticize the lack of honesty in this matter. However, if we listen, President Yoon, during his press conference on the second anniversary of his inauguration in May, defined the low birth rate as a national emergency. He stated that all policies should be approached from scratch and that all capabilities should be mobilized. A new position, the Senior Secretary for Low Birth Rate Response, was created, and Professor Yoo Mi from Hanyang University’s Department of Economics and Finance was appointed as the senior secretary. The low birth rate issue is now under the jurisdiction of Chief Seung-seo Hwang. Personally, this person is an elite. Regarding the four major reforms, they are addressing the policy goals for low birth rate response.

I asked what the situation was, and looking at the statistics, there were 57,000 births in the second quarter of this year, which is a 1.2% increase compared to the same period last year. So, I mentioned this in May, and since there was an increase in the second quarter, they are saying it’s a success. However, this is such a narrow worldview. The increase compared to the same period last year is the first in eight and a half years. On a more positive note, the leading indicator of marriage numbers has increased for two consecutive quarters. In the first quarter of this year, there were 54,000 marriages, which is a 0.4% increase compared to the same period last year, and in the second quarter, it increased by 177%. So, it seems like there was quite a stir regarding the marriage numbers. In our country, unlike abroad, there is a high probability that marriage will lead to childbirth. This year, it is almost certain that the birth rate will rebound, and the upward trend will continue into next year. This is something that has never happened historically. I genuinely thought it was an interview from China. Anyway,

Such appropriate exaggeration is very necessary, and that was the kind of interview it was. Looking at the third quarter birth rate, the performance in the second quarter was good. So, on September 10th, the interview took place, and on September 25th, the population trends for July were announced. Last year, there were 19,000 births, but this year it increased to 26,600. The birth rate has risen, approximately an 88% increase compared to the previous year. Naturally, the number of deaths has also increased to 28,000. As you can see, in our country, there are about 20,000 births per month, while deaths are around 28,000. Originally, the monthly figure was about 30,000, so currently, there are about 100,000 more deaths per year. Thus, the rate of increase in births compared to deaths is significant; as you know, back in the mid-2010s, there were about 40,000 births per month.

There have been more births, so the total population continues to increase. Just about eight years ago, the number of marriages was 18,000, and now marriages are really on the rise, showing an increase of 32.9%. The number of divorces has also increased to 8,000, which is a 6% rise. The natural increase is at -8,000. If we look at the dynamics, the birth rates show some volatility, but overall, it is correct to say that there is a downward trend. In July 2022, there were 22,000 births, and in July 2023, it was 21,000. In July 2022, there were 20,000 births, and in July 2023, it dropped to 9,000, now slightly rising to 20,000. So, this has shown a decline from the original 35,000 over a short period. We are essentially hovering around this low point. Although there has been a slight rebound, it is not at the level seen in previous years. Marriages have increased, and there is a trend in that direction.

The number of marriages has been increasing since the end of 2023. Is this increase because men and women suddenly love each other more than last year? So, I ask, how is the number of marriages increasing? The issue of low birth rates cannot be solved with a single bullet; there is no magic solution. The low birth rate is a problem that the government should continuously address through various policy issues. It is important to emphasize family-work balance, childcare, educational experiences, and solving housing problems, as these factors interact in a complex way. 

The diagnosis itself points to the causes of low birth rates in South Korea: urban concentration, overcrowding, extremely tight economic conditions, and high housing prices. Additionally, issues like the difficulty of balancing work and family and the barriers to women's re-entry into the workforce contribute to the low birth rate. However, the key point to focus on is the work-family balance.

From here, measures have been proposed. In May, I also discussed the measures related to low birth rates on our channel. The reason is that the causes of the problem have been clearly identified, and responses must be made according to those causes. I criticized this because they have done so. Regardless of other factors, support for marriage and childbirth-related housing is definitely in place. By combining these elements, people might consider getting married or having children. However, the issue is that there are many people who want to but cannot. So, what specifically has changed? When it comes to marriage, the marriage penalty, which imposes financial and tax disadvantages, has been actively addressed. There have been many disadvantages when getting married; for example, when single, the loan limit is 5,000, but once married, it changes to a household limit of 8,000, which is not double but only 1.6 times. This is a bad situation.

So, ultimately, what has changed despite knowing this? They have organized the income standards and loan criteria. You may have heard discussions around this; in fact, many couples get married without officially registering their marriage. However, recently, as these benefits have been organized, the number of marriage registrations has increased. So, marriage is a personal decision, and the registrations have gone up. There used to be very few registrations, but now they have increased again, leading to a 30% rise in births. It's not that people suddenly love each other 30% more; rather, this can be seen as an achievement because it has encouraged couples to register their marriages. So, if we consider it an achievement, it is indeed an achievement. Looking at the cumulative data for July 2024, it shows 137,900 registrations, and compared to last year...

As of July, the cumulative total is 149,600, which is a decrease of 1.2% compared to the previous year. The cumulative figures are still negative. In the second quarter, the birth rate increased by around 1%, thanks to favorable numbers in April and May, although June saw a decline of 1.8%. However, the increase in July suggests a positive trend. If you look at the trend line, from January to May, there has been a consistent pattern. It seems that since May, there have been policies implemented that have contributed to this upward movement. On the other hand, the number of deaths continues to rise. Overall, I observe that it is around 20,000, whether it's 19,600 or 20,000, which is significant. This is a trend that no previous government has managed to achieve, and it’s being stated that things will continue to improve moving forward.

I think the comments made were somewhat exaggerated, and it would be better for the government to take a more moderate approach. The current government's new policy on living standards is likely to negatively impact the birth rate over time. High housing prices and the overcrowding in the metropolitan area are key causes of low birth rates, and this will only accelerate the situation. Therefore, rather than claiming to implement measures that no previous government has achieved by focusing on the months of May, June, and July when birth rates are higher, it seems more appropriate to reflect on the ongoing housing price policies. Over time, I believe this statement will be re-evaluated. In my opinion, as I mentioned in our channel previously, there are the Pika forces and the Save Korea forces. The Pika forces are currently rejecting changes in Korea and are clinging to outdated practices, driven more by ideology than by rationality.

Next, they are caught up in short-term results rather than a long-term perspective. Recently, you may have seen the controversy surrounding the selection of the national soccer team. In that context, I consider people like Park Joo-ho and Park Moon-sung to be members of Save Korea. There are many individuals like them in various sectors. For instance, our three-member pension reform team announced the pension reform at 31-2, and we plan to invite them for an interview on our channel. I believe all of these individuals are part of the Save Korea team. This applies to all fields, whether it's the gaming industry or company operations. The same goes for outdated politics. People are still trapped in ideological thinking, as if we are in the Cold War era of the 70s and 80s. However, they are stuck in a socialist ideology that excludes rationality, insisting that the rich must be eliminated and the poor must be saved. Those are the individuals occupying seats in the National Assembly.

I believe it is the peak-out forces. When we look at whether they are people who make philosophy itself lead to a quicker escape or those who can still change our country, overall, I think young people are engaging in a lot of rational thinking. As for the direction of the channel, I mentioned that we will start the Save Korea project from the end of this year, and I plan to continue introducing such individuals. The same goes for the two sessions. Additionally, the remarks made by the Bank of Korea governor and those from Seoul National University all seem to be aimed at saving Korea. I frequently watch Kim Seong-hwa's channel, where he filed a constitutional petition regarding the Game Rating Committee on the Knowledge Beka channel, and it gained significant attention in a short period. I believe there are people engaged in this Save Korea movement everywhere, and I think we should respect these individuals.

The forces currently hold power and authority. They have influence and control, but if this does not change, we will face a downfall. I believe this reflects the reality in Korea. Therefore, I would like to participate in bringing about change. That’s what I wanted to say. I will stop here for today. Thank you.

출산율 올라갔다?!

🔼 집 문제와 경제를 다루는 채널 🔼
🔼 강연/출연/광고협의 : chaeboosim@treasurehunter.co.kr / acasawa@gmail.com
See the person, Not the house!!
채부심 주요프로그램은, 
1. 분석왕 채상욱 - 피크아웃코리아의 현실과 대응방안, 자본주의의 생존전략을 다룹니다 
2. 채부심세미나 - 시장의 많은 뉴스들을 핵심만 요약합니다
3. 채부심 북스 - 뇌를 말랑하게 할 읽어볼만한 좋은 책들을 소개합니다. 
4. 현장답사 - 부동산 현장을 답사하고 현장감을 제공하는 컨텐츠
5. 채부심 인터뷰 - 다양한 인물들과의 다양한 주제의 얘기를 다룹니다. 
6. 채상욱 출연영상 - 채부심 외 다른 채널에 나왔지만 좋은 컨텐츠라고 판단할 때는, 퍼 오는 영상

🔼 유튜브 채널의 내용은 네이버 프리미엄콘텐츠(네프콘)를 기반으로 합니다. 네프콘을 구독해서 채널을 키워주세요
https://naver.me/x9ct3yeH

🔼개인강연 등 문의
acasawa@gmail.com
chaeboosim@treasurehunter.co.kr
