Okay, now this is one of the most exciting videos that I feel like I've made in a long time because it's not something you're going to hear anywhere else. And I think it's the most logical approach to next year. And I mean, this video could precede

large gains, meaning that this video could give you a heads up of what's actually going to happen, which could make you a lot of money. Now, if you do not like to make a lot of money, click off this video right now. It's not for you, my friend. If you want average

returns, if you want a Joe life, get off the video. You're going to waste your time. Now, this video is really going to challenge the approach that a lot of investors have to this market right now. And I understand it's not going to be

something that makes sense to some of you guys, but I highly recommend you at least try to understand how next year is going to play out. I will tell you though, right from the start, the wild card to whether this will be correct or not comes down to one factor, a singular

factor from what we can tell right now. Obviously, there could be Black Swan events, there could be World War III or or something dramatic that happens. The one wild card is: do we have a recession or not? If we have a recession, none of this will be accurate. If we

don't have a recession, all of this will be accurate in my opinion. This is not financial advice. Structure your portfolio how you want. Okay, contact a financial advisor. So I want to go ahead and just jump right into it. This is the biggest secret by far for all of

2025 and I wrote this post on X, okay? It says, "This is the biggest secret for 2025 under Trump. We will see inflation come down more than expected via the Doge Department of government efficiency and really just rents coming down." I write next, "It is already started. It takes a

long time to get rent inflation down, but current market rents show this as proof. Take a look at Redfin, you know, rent tracker, back in August of 2022, National Rent peaked out, okay, well for for all bedroom sizes, right, for one, two,

three bedrooms, just the average peaked out at $1,700. Today it's down to $1,619. This is not what you would expect if you looked at the last CPI report and the shelter category. This is because of owner's equivalent rents. Now I don't

know about you guys, but at least where I live in Michigan, I've I've been looking for for a new home, right, really for for transportation reasons. I have to drive far to get to places I I want to go to, where I want to put my daughter in

school, that's that's heading into school next year, is not where I currently live. There's nothing wrong with where I live, but she knows other PE, other kids in different school districts, and I want to move there, right? Well, I've been looking for homes, and the homes that I see on

the market are just sitting there, they're really not moving. And when your CPI report is calculated in owner's equivalent rents and people realize, "Oh, crap, I can't even sell my home because the, you know, mortgage costs are so expensive, I probably won't be able to

rent my home much easier, then that's where you start to get the psychology switch that says, okay, maybe rents have fallen and I think we're we're pretty much there. Okay, I think 2025 is going to be the year of rent inflation coming down actually.

going, what could be negative, which is a crazy um kind of thought process to have right, but asking rent month over month was down 0.6%, median asking rent year-over-year was up only 0.2%. That's wild to take a look at the

last CPI report that we had year-over-year, look at shelter here in dark blue. It's still by far the largest category of inflation. Food inflation's pretty minimal. Shelter's the largest. Core services excluding shelter is here in dark purple. I think this will come down a little bit, but probably is going

to remain a little on the high side. Energy is negative and core goods is also negative. So all you really need to see here to get to 2% is shelter that comes down a bit, right? If you get a 25% reduction in core services excluding shelter and you get a

you know, 25% reduction in shelter, you're going to be right at about 2% inflation, which I see as pretty probable again because back to what I said here, inflation really comes down to expectations. And in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey that we got

yesterday, one-year inflation expectations actually fell from 2.7% down to 2.6%. And there's a lot of people that that I've talked to over the last 12 months that literally voted for Trump because prices were cheaper in 2016 through 2020. There was this

perceived notion that there would be less inflation under Trump. This is something that I noticed that maybe you guys did not notice, but that was like the number one reason people said they were voting for Trump. And I think that psychology will work its way into the

actual inflation numbers that we see now. If you don't take my word for it, Redfin's CEO Glenn Kelman just said on CNBC yesterday, quote, "rents are likely to come down in 2025." So I'm not the only one that thinks this. Now, on to the

next segment because obviously inflation coming down's going to be great because I mean what if we start to undershoot the Fed's target? Crazy thought, I know, but what if we start to undershoot the Fed's target? They're going to be cutting rates more because of lower inflation. Imagine

how positive that would be for markets. And at this point, it's all based on expectations. Wall Street thinks we're going to have higher inflation. I don't think that's the case. That is a big potential positive catalyst for 2025. Now, again, moving on to tariffs. This is

another big issue, but let me give you one of the biggest secrets of 2025. I write here, "Tariffs will only be enacted to the point at which they don't impact the economy." When the spy starts throwing a fit, that's a no-go for the Trump

regime. I mean, we know this is true really for a couple different reasons. Number one, we've seen this play out before. From October 3rd, 2018, through Christmas Eve, December 24th, 2018, the S&P fell 20% because of some of Trump's

tariff, you know, threats, right? Uh, resumed US-China trade war, markets fell 20%, and they quickly stopped all of the tariff nonsense. Okay, Trump already knows you can only go so far with tariffs. You can only, you know, have a certain economic impact or the

markets will revolt, and you will not be able to do anything, which is essentially what happened in 2018. There was a lot of big threats of tariffs, and then we kind of settled with, you know, tariffs on certain areas of the Chinese economy in which those tariffs are still in effect

today. So it's as simple as that. When the markets start to revolt against the tariff policies that are being thrown out, when the markets start to actually react negatively to tariff policies, they will not be enacted, they will be cancelled, and that'll be a buying

opportunity. Okay, because Trump doesn't want to come in here and destroy the economy or destroy the stock market. He's he's he's really one of the only presidents ever that measures his success by what the stock market is is doing. Imagine you're the guy that comes

in as markets are at all-time highs and crash the markets, you're not going to be very liked anymore. Okay, even from the perspective of the average 401(k) that's not his goal, and if you think it is his goal, then you are in the wrong market. You should go short

everything, and trust me, you will lose all of your money if you do that. I'm not a financial advisor, I'm not a financial planner, do not do anything that I say, especially not that, but overall it's just a bad idea. So to the extent Wall

Wall Street is fearful about higher inflation and tariffs. It's without a doubt the wrong view. This is a positive upside surprise coming in 2025, especially for small and mid-cap cyclicals. See, for a while now, I've tried to imagine where the upside scenario could come from in

2025, and I was struggling with this for a while until Trump won the presidency. Until we started to see over the last couple of weeks the negative verbiage from Wall Street about tariffs and about inflation that could be higher, in which I, I've, I've, I've known the whole time,

but it's coming more obvious that this is a big positive catalyst. When inflation comes down more than expected, when tariffs are not as extreme as Trump is forecasting right now. Trump's saying a 60% blanket tariff on China. I'll tell you right now that's not going to happen

because the markets would crash. We would go into a recession. It's not going to happen. So there's a positive surprise on the back end of that when we get smaller tariffs or more selective tariffs. Now, there's also the flip side of that coin. Tariffs could lead to more

onshoring, more domestic investment, which could also be good for economic activity. Now, I go on to say here, this is bad news for big tech as they will no longer be able to be the only party in town, and the quote-unquote defensive trade. Big

tech has been well-liked because of, you know, higher inflation, presumably higher odds of a recession as the Fed was raising rates. If inflation comes down more than expected and tariffs are not as extreme as we're expecting, which is my base case assumption, big tech's no longer going to

be the area that you want to be in. It's going to be small-cap, mid-cap, cyclical companies that could benefit from lower interest rates and higher economic growth, as well as onshoring and more domestic investment. I also say here small-cap and mid-cap typically have

traded at a premium valuation to large-cap tech. That is before 2023, so 2023 kind of changed everything with the whole crowding into big tech. Big tech has traded at higher valuations than small caps and midcaps since at least 2023. Why it's actually quite logical

small and midcaps should offer more growth than multi-trillion dollar businesses under this framework. I'm incredibly bullish on these areas. You could actually experience something pretty remarkable next year. Imagine if big tech trading at 28 times 2025 P/E came down to let's say 18 times P/E where

the average S&P stock is at, but smalls and midcaps actually got to a 25 times 2026 P/E. This would be a stock picker's dream and essentially what this would do since big tech holds the large market cap weighting in the S&P and the NASDAQ.

You could actually see the S&P and the NASDAQ stay pretty flat even if big tech falls and the rest of the markets go up like 35% right. You could see a ferocious rally under the surface of this market if big tech were to actually come down

as their growth rates are now slowing down right. I I should have probably added that. You could see these things kind of net-net where if you're a stock picker and you're investing in small-cap, mid-caps, cyclicals, beaten-down unloved companies today, they could be the

massive outperformers next year whereas big Tech, the crowded trade today, may not be so. I think there's a risk to the index at this point. I I I don't like the S&P or the NASDAQ on an index level. I think risk to reward is poor here.

whereas if you're a stock picker, maybe a stock like Tesla, maybe small caps, midcaps, cyclicals, right, I'm very confident you're going to outperform the index by maybe two or three to one next year. Now again, the only wild card to

this is a recession. If we have a recession, then the opposite of this video is true. Small caps and cyclicals and midcaps are going to underperform relative to Big Tech. They're all going to fall, but if Big Tech could fall 25%,

small caps could fall like 50% if we go into a recession, maybe more than that. At this point, it is far too early to tell whether we're going to have a recession or not. I think the odds have gotten lower of a recession in in recent

months, but it's still a looming possibility that we just don't have clarity on yet. And I do think there will be at least one more growth scare in the relative near-term future. I I believe in Q1 or Q2 of 2025, by midpoint of next

year, there will be a 10 plus percent correction because again, markets are all based on expectations. Expectations are that we're going to have higher inflation, tariffs that are going to be bad for the economy. One, I think those expectations again are wrong. You're

going to have less extreme tariffs, lower than expected inflation, that's where the whole thesis of small and mid-cap cyclicals will outperform. But as far as the headline economy, expectations are really high. Okay, now I think we may actually come in with those expectations, but at

some point that will get shaken. At some point, the data will start to come in bad and Wall Street will say, "Oh crap, maybe the economy is not going to be as good as we think." And that will cause markets to sell down. Now, I also think at the

same time, probably at literally at the same time, you will also get some of these tariff announcements. Okay, markets are not going to like some of the scary tariff announcements that we hear. Ultimately, they will not be enacted, that's why it'll be a buying opportunity.

But once you get those tariffs that come out, perhaps mix that with some weakening economic data, and that's where you're setting up for a 10 to 20-ish percent correction. I think it'll be short-term in nature, but that will be a huge buying

opportunity, and I'm setting up for that today. How you set up for that is raising cash, it's getting ready to buy the dip. Now I should also say that with my theory of we're going to see lower inflation expectations, the tariffs that

we get from Trump, yes, there will be some. They're not going to be nearly as dramatic as we expect. Will likely cause 10-year treasury yields that have been trading higher recently on, you know, higher than expected inflation expectations long-term, will actually

come down okay they could come down to as low as about 3% for next year now that would be a drop of about 1.41% okay this would help really support the narrative that the Outlook that I have of small caps and midcaps and cyclicals outperforming whereas you

could see an actual drag or a net loss on the year from large cap Tech okay just purely because large cap Tech should not be trading at the valuations they are with as little growth as they have they're actually some of the most expensive stocks in the markets when you

look at price to sales when you look at you know Peg ratios they're not attractive at current current levels or current prices at at all now with that said let me know what you guys think about what 2025 has in store for us but

Goldman Sachs says here that stocks tend to rally after a momentary Thanksgiving pullback into inauguration day so markets actually rally after a brief little drawdown after Thanksgiving um into inauguration on January 20th now there's been a lot of speculation about

whether you should you know buy a year-end rally and sell the inauguration that's probably when we can expect to see some kind of correction around inauguration around February maybe into March and that would be your buying opportunity but even someone like a Tom

Lee as I explained yesterday expects the markets could hit on the SPY 6100 by this upcoming Friday keep in mind Thursday markets are closed for trading and Friday the markets close at like 1:00 p.m. I believe it is so you really have Monday Tuesday Wednesday and

a half day on Friday you have like three and a half days of trading this week where you could see a pretty explosive rally I'll also mention the S&P was up a third of 1% on Friday in regular trading and up another 0.16% in after hours so

it looks like that momentum is continuing and what you're likely going to see from now into year end is chasing if you're a fund manager and you're up 15 16% on the year but the S&P is up over 20% that's not good that is no

bueno because your clients are going to say I should have just been in the S&P this whole time okay so that's why you're likely to see a chase into year end it's probably going to be in those small cap midcap areas

it's probably not going to be in big Tech I would be surprised if it was in big Tech um but that chase could really help propel you higher and it's also being reported that Donald Trump has elected Scott Bassett to be the next Secretary of Treasury Scott Bassett says

the crypto economy is here to stay and the CEO of Ripple says it's a perfect pick so this could be bullish for Bitcoin even though we're not really seeing Bitcoin moving higher you're actually seeing Bitcoin moving lower over this weekend down to about 98,000

versus the almost 100,000 that we hit um overnight you know this is good news for crypto land but you're probably due for a correction anyways in Bitcoin and that's something to watch for we also have some economic data next week mainly

on Monday and Tuesday it's some of your like Chicago Fed National activity index Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index that's on Monday on Tuesday new home sales new home sales month over month CB consumer confidence Richmond Fed index uh Manufacturing Index and services Revenue index Dallas Fed Services index so

more Regional data but on Wednesdays a huge day for data like massive day for data core PCE month over month expected is 0.3% if that comes in lower that's good if it comes in line with expectations that's probably good if it

comes in higher than expected that's bad simple as that durable goods orders month over month expected at 0.1% last month was negative 0.7% GDP growth rate quarter over quarter second estimate for Q3 last we heard was 3% we're expecting

this could fall to 2.8% personal income month over month expected 0.3% I don't think that's really you know a a a catalyst personal spending month over month though is going to be huge last month was 0.5% we are expecting

0.4% also initial jobless claims will be coming out Thursday if all of that other data was not enough and continuing jobless claims you also get Chicago PMI pending home sales month over month and year-over-year as well as some oil data

Thursday obviously markets are closed so nothing on Thursday and on Friday you don't have anything else either and that's a half day so as long as the data comes out Wednesday and it's good then you're probably going to have a really good Wednesday I imagine Monday and

Tuesdays are going to be good as well um I think there's a lot of momentum behind this market especially like a like a Russell right like IWM that has continued to outperform over the past couple of days like you could be pushing at least all-time highs by Friday of

next week. One situation is going to be different, my situation uh you know I I'm able to invest in you know longer duration companies, more speculative companies depending on what age you are, your income, all of that, your situation is going to vary, so contact a financial

adviser if you have any concerns if you are curious about their opinions or whatnot, want the best advice for your financial situation then do that because I'm not a financial adviser, I do not give financial advice, I just share my opinions and what I'm doing to document

this for my future self, so thank you guys for watching, enjoy the rest of your day and weekend, I will see you in the next one

The Biggest Secret in 2025.. Could Make You Rich. (Stock Market Investors)

The Creative Investor

이 동영상은 내년도 시장 트렌드에 대한 독특한 관점을 제시합니다.

이 동영상은 평균 수익률이 아닌 고수익을 추구하는 투자자를 대상으로 합니다.

이 동영상은 시장에 대한 기존 투자자들의 접근 방식에 도전합니다.

예측의 정확도는 경기 침체 발생 여부에 따라 달라집니다.

발표자는 이것이 재정적인 조언이 아니라는 점을 강조합니다.

주요 요인으로 임대료 인플레이션 하락

발표자는 2025년의 주요 비결로 임대료 하락을 강조하며 CPI 데이터와 대조를 이룹니다.

Redfin의 전국 임대료 데이터에 따르면 2022년 8월부터 현재까지 임대료가 감소한 것으로 나타났습니다.

이러한 불일치는 CPI의 '소유자 등가 임대료' 구성 요소에 기인합니다.

발표자의 주택 검색에서 나온 일화적인 증거는 임대료 하락을 뒷받침합니다.

높은 모기지 비용으로 인한 주택 판매의 어려움은 임대료 기대치에 영향을 미칩니다.

인플레이션 기대치와 시장에 미치는 영향

CPI 데이터를 분석한 결과, 쉼터가 가장 큰 인플레이션 카테고리로 나타났습니다.

쉼터와 핵심 서비스 인플레이션을 크게 줄이면 인플레이션을 2%로 낮출 수 있습니다.

미시간 소비자 심리 조사에서 1년 후 인플레이션 기대치가 하락했습니다.

발표자는 트럼프에 대한 유권자의 선호도와 낮은 인플레이션 기대치 사이의 상관관계에 주목합니다.

레드핀의 CEO는 또한 2025년에 임대료가 하락할 것으로 예상합니다.

인플레이션 및 관세 하락의 영향

낮은 인플레이션으로 인해 연준의 목표치를 밑돌면 추가 금리 인하로 이어질 수 있습니다.

관세는 경제에 큰 영향을 미치지 않는 범위 내에서만 부과될 것입니다.

과거의 사례를 보면 관세에 대한 시장의 반응이 정책 변화로 이어질 수 있음을 알 수 있습니다.

관세에 대한 시장의 부정적인 반응은 관세 취소로 이어져 구매 기회를 창출할 수 있습니다.

발표자의 낙관적인 전망은 낮은 인플레이션과 덜 극단적인 관세에 대한 기대감에서 비롯된 것입니다.

투자 전략: 중소형주 및 중형주 순환매

낮은 인플레이션과 덜 극단적인 관세는 대형주보다 소형주 및 중형주 경기 순환형 기업에 유리할 것입니다.

대형주 대비 중소형주에 대한 역사적 밸류에이션 프리미엄.

대형주 밸류에이션이 하락하고 중소형주 밸류에이션이 상승하는 시나리오가 제시됩니다.

중소형주가 지수 대비 상당한 초과 성과를 거둘 가능성이 있습니다.

발표자는 이 시나리오에서 지수 투자보다 주식 선택을 선호한다고 말합니다.

경기 침체가 발생하면 예상되는 시장 움직임이 역전되어 소형주 및 경기 순환주 실적이 저조할 수 있습니다.

경기 침체 가능성은 불확실하지만 여전히 가능성이 있는 것으로 간주됩니다.

시장 기대치의 변화로 인해 2025년 1분기 또는 2분기에 10% 이상의 시장 조정이 예상됩니다.

관세 발표는 경제 지표 약세와 맞물려 조정을 촉발할 수 있습니다.

이번 조정은 단기에 그칠 것으로 예상되며 매수 기회를 만들 것으로 예상됩니다.

추가 시장 예측 및 마무리 발언

인플레이션 기대치가 낮아지면 10년 만기 국채 수익률이 낮아질 수 있습니다.

대형주 기술은 고평가된 것으로 간주되어 실적이 저조할 수 있습니다.

골드만 삭스는 추수감사절 이후부터 취임식 날까지 랠리가 이어질 것으로 예상합니다.

펀드 매니저의 행동으로 인해 연말까지 잠재적인 폭발적인 랠리가 예상됩니다.

발표자는 전문적인 재무 자문을 구할 것을 강조합니다.