기술 기업 가치 평가와 향후 전망

### 밸류에이션 우려와 잠재적 순환매에 직면한 기술주
* 💰 시장 상승을 주도했던 메가캡 기술주들은 **7월 10일까지 나스닥이 13.5% 하락**하는 등 큰 폭의 하락을 경험했습니다.
* 📉 조정 후에도 엔비디아 같은 일부 기술주는 여전히 높은 밸류에이션으로 거래되고 있었는데, **주가수익비율은 약 59, 주가순자산비율은 약 30**이었습니다.
* 🔄 일부 투자자들은 고평가에 대한 우려로 다른 기회를 모색하는 등 **기술 부문에서 리더십 교체**가 감지되고 있습니다.
* 💼 배당 성장 투자자들은 **높은 밸류에이션과 낮은 배당 수익률**로 인해 기술주에 대해 신중을 기합니다.
* 🏢 일부 투자자들은 **지속적인 잉여 현금 흐름과 기존 비즈니스를 보유한 Cisco와 IBM**과 같은 전통적인 기술 기업을 더 매력적으로 여깁니다.
* 📊 마이크로소프트와 엔비디아 같은 기술 기업의 수익 보고서는 **매출을 이익으로 전환하는 데 어려움**을 겪고 있으며, 이는 **밸류에이션 우려**로 이어지고 있습니다.
* 📈 데이터 센터 투자는 다른 기술 분야에 비해 **예측 가능한 현금 흐름**을 제공하는 잠재적인 기회로 여겨집니다.
* 🔮 밸류에이션에 대한 우려와 기업이 매출 성장을 넘어 **실질적인 수익성을 입증**해야 한다는 점에서 하반기 기술 섹터에 대한 전망은 조심스러운 편입니다.

데이비드는 메가캡 기술주의 고평가가 장기적인 주가 침체로 이어질 것이라며 잉여현금흐름과 오래된 기술주에 집중할 것을 권장합니다.

The story Monday was about some of the mega-cap tech names, some of those that have fueled the gains in the first half of the year. Some of those names you were particularly concerned about. So you sat on the sidelines away from them. How do you react to the last 24 hours then? Well, it's interesting that with that sector, it wasn't really a Monday story per se. It had started July 10th. The Nasdaq drawdown had reached 13 and a half percent yesterday. So there was already quite a bit of slide going on. And I think that does stem from the overvaluation. It's pretty stunning when you see a name like in video that had been down 25 to 30% and was still trading at about 59 times earnings, 30 times sales after such a violent correction. I think even today when you look at Apple still being negative with this kind of bounce back rally today.

It does feel to me like a rotation of
leadership is very well underway. You raise a point that we reiterated in
yesterday's show, that Friday marked four straight weekly declines on the Nasdaq
100. Right.
You were already in correction territory.
I guess the question for someone like you, David, is what do you do now?
You know, it's the drawdown or so-called technical correction enough
that you start to look at some of the names that for many they are tinos or
they are there is no alternative to holding them.
Well, there are probably investor categories that might want to look at
something they are not. They certainly shouldn't be doing it
because they believe it's reached a value.
These are still extremely expensive stocks for us as dividend growth
investors. The tiny little paltry dividend that the
invidious measures in Apple's pay is not enough to whet our beak.
And so they would have a long way to go.

to start returning cash to shareholders for us to be attracted. But even apart from our dividend growth orientation, the valuations are still very high. I began professionally managing money in the 1990s, and so I will be forever scarred by the reality of what happens when you overpay for very good companies, very big and successful companies that have a generational success, and yet their stock goes nowhere for ten, 15, 20 years in Cisco's case, still hasn't got back to 1999 levels. Those stories are real and I believe very much they will be the case with some of these names, too. I think investors have to be careful. I find names like Cisco, maybe even Adele interesting as sort of appendages to the infrastructure build out this happening. I wrote about it in today's Tech Daily. Right. If you think about the growth concern, investment or capital expenditures into datacenter seem to be plowing ahead.

regardless of short-term jitters.
Is there an opportunity for you in that space, David?
Or do you think it's just overdone already at this point?
Well, that's a very interesting story because there you can get cash flow.
And so, for example, Blackstone has become one of the largest investors
institutionally in the data center story.
And we're able to get a real yield and become a landlord, so to speak, to data
center, become a little bit less concerned with the with the underlying
business fundamentals as to how much Microsoft's going to buy from an VEDERE
or what the monetization of AI is going to be.
A lot of those questions are not answered.
They're not going to get answered anytime soon.
But data center becomes a story that from a brick-and-mortar standpoint, you
can make money in. I find that so interesting.
Never before did I think I'd be writing

about rates in my technology newsletter,
and I use their forecasts or data to kind of look at the market pipeline as a
whole earnings. You know, this morning we wake up
Palantir's strength, Uber's strength. And last week we learned from Microsoft
in particular that if you miss estimates, you're in trouble.
But there's still a long way to run in this earnings period.
Have you taken a sort of lesson on the whole from those that have already
reported? Yeah, well, about 75% of the way
through. It does appear that overall earnings
growth is not going to be 8% as targeted on the quarter, but probably closer to
5% year over year. Earnings growth still expected to be
about 12%. But some base effects are going to make
that a lot harder in the next quarters. And so I think the story of Microsoft is
kind of a microcosm of the underlying reality that there's this sort of
feedback loop at play that Microsoft

goes up because it's buying a lot from
in video, and in video goes up because Microsoft's buying a lot from it.
And of course, there's a lot of other customers.
But this idea that I doesn't ever have to tell you how it's going to make money
for real other than an infrastructure backbone story is problematic.
And if those revenues are going to be going down before they've converted to
profits, then you have an unwind that has to take place of a feedback loop.
David, for the technology sector, then what happens in the second half of this
year? I would be somewhat unconstructive in
the space on a valuation basis, but we are hardly the types of technology
investors that you normally would be speaking to, just in the sense of our
boring insistence on free cash flow. You know, we own Broadcom in the
portfolio. We don't believe it got to the valuation
overstretch that India has.

And then we own old tech names like IBM
and Cisco that have ongoing free cash flow from online businesses, but
obviously new growth opportunities. That's the way we would prefer to play
it, just simply because we think perfection was priced in to the more
contemporary technology names.

Big Tech Traders Are Not Buying the Dip

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고평가된 메가테크 주식에 대한 우려

나스닥은 일부 기술주가 높은 수익과 매출 배수에도 불구하고 급락하는 등 고평가로 인해 13.

5%의 큰 폭의 하락을 경험했습니다.

시장은 리더십 교체의 조짐을 보이고 있으며, 투자자들은 고가의 기술주 보유를 재고해야 할 것입니다.

배당 성장 투자자에게는 고평가된 주식의 낮은 배당금이 매력적이지 않아 상당한 가격 조정이 필요하다는 신호입니다.

Cisco와 같은 고가치 기업에 투자하면 수년간 주식 성장이 정체될 수 있습니다.

데이터센터와 같은 인프라에 대한 관심은 블랙스톤과 같은 기업을 통해 실질적인 수익률과 투자의 기회를 제공합니다.

불확실한 비즈니스 펀더멘털에도 불구하고 데이터 센터 산업은 오프라인 환경에서 수익을 창출할 수 있는 기회를 제공합니다.

이번 분기의 전체 수익 성장률은 목표치인 8%가 아닌 5% 내외가 될 것으로 보입니다.

기술 섹터는 기업의 성과가 상호 의존적인 피드백 루프에 직면해 있으며, 잠재적으로 피드백 루프가 풀릴 수 있습니다.

하반기에는 기술 부문의 밸류에이션과 잉여 현금 흐름에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

지속적인 현금 흐름을 위한 기존 기술 기업에 대한 투자

일관된 잉여 현금 흐름을 위해 IBM이나 Cisco와 같은 오래된 기술 기업에 투자하는 것을 선호합니다.

새로운 성장 기회가 이미 최신 기술 기업에 반영되어 있다고 믿습니다.

이러한 투자 접근 방식은 최신 기술 기업이 고평가되어 있다는 인식 때문에 선택됩니다.