투자 리서치 이해하기: 유형, 출처 및 신뢰성

### 투자 리서치 이해하기: 유형, 출처 및 모범 사례
* 📊 대부분의 투자자는 다양한 투자에 대한 정보를 제공하는 **투자 리서치**라고 하는 다른 사람의 분석에 의존합니다.
* 🔍 투자 리서치는 일반적으로 **투자 은행에서 수행하는 상업적 리서치**와 **대학 학자들이 동료 검토**를 거쳐 수행하는 **학술 리서치**로 크게 분류할 수 있습니다.
* 📈 상업적 연구에는 **단일 종목 노트, 경제 연구, 섹터별 분석**이 포함되며, 학술 연구는 **장기 수익률과 광범위한 경제 동향**을 다루는 경우가 많습니다.
* 💡 개인 투자자를 위한 무료 리소스에는 **중앙은행과 국제통화기금(IMF) 같은 기관에서 발행하는 경제 및 금융 시장에 대한 유용한 인사이트**를 제공하는 리서치가 포함되어 있습니다.
* 🎥 이제 많은 사람들이 **유튜브나 틱톡과 같은 플랫폼에서 정보를 찾**지만, 출처의 신뢰성과 정보를 제공하는 개인의 배경을 확인하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 🛡 리서치는 정보에 입각한 투자를 위한 강력한 도구가 될 수 있지만, **회의적인 태도를 유지**하고 공개된 정보 뒤에 숨어 있는 잠재적인 편견과 인센티브를 고려하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 📊 S&P 다우존스 지수에서 알 수 있듯이 기관 리서치를 통해 **패시브 벤치마크 대비 액티브 펀드의 성과와 같은 추세**를 파악할 수 있으며, 이는 투자 전략에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
* 💼 궁극적으로 개인 실사를 수행하면서 **양질의 리서치**를 활용하면 투자 결정을 개선하고 재무 목표를 달성하는 데 도움이 될 수 있습니다.

투자 연구는 귀중한 인사이트를 제공하지만 출처와 잠재적 편견에 대한 신중한 평가가 필요합니다.

most of us invest based on analysis done by other people. This is investment research. In this video, we'll look at the types of investment research, how to use it, gauge whether it's reliable, and look at which sources of research are most likely to help us achieve our financial goals. Today's video is sponsored by Saxo, an award-winning UK investment platform. So, what is investment research? Here, I've used a very broad definition deliberately, as we'll see later, but really, it's just publications that inform you about investments. Now, this is what you typically think of as investment research. This is published by a UK company called Peel Hunt, and you can see that it's about a single stock, in this case, a house developer, and the name of the developer is Barrett Developments. Now, notice the really large number here, which is the TP, the target price for the stock is 490. So, if it's trading below that, you'd probably think, Oh, okay, it should go up in price. Also, there's a one-word definition which tells you whether to buy the stock, hold the stock, or sell the

stock so a very simple summary of what is actually a quite complicated analysis of the stock. So, if you read the whole note, it'll have things like valuations, descriptions of the environment for this industry, and where this stock fits within it. Now, I used to write these research notes when I worked for an investment bank, and it's not that dissimilar from making YouTube videos in the sense that you're continually creating content for an audience, which in this case is mostly fund managers. So, that could be pension fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, or it could be hedge funds, anyone who manages stocks in this case because it's a single stock research note. Another type of research is academic research, and there's also academic research on investments, such as this great paper, which I love, which talks about returns over a very long period of time. It's the rate of return on everything from 1870 to 2015. Now, the big difference between academic research is firstly who writes it. So, this is written by academics working at universities. The

second difference is that academic research is peer-reviewed. Peers just mean the people who work in the same field as the researcher. They might be friends of theirs, they might not, they might be enemies, but the really important point here is that there's a level of filtering so that if they make false statements or misleading statements in the research note, then it'll get corrected in the draft stage before it's published. Contrast that with a research note published by an investment bank where you just click on send, it goes to the compliance department, they proofread it, make some changes, there's some back and forth, and then it's published. There's no peer review in that case. So, there is this additional layer of filtering for academic research, which you don't get for commercial research from investment banks. So, we've seen the broad categories of commercial research on investment and academic research. Now, let's dig into the subcategories for investment research. Now, the research note we first saw from Peel Hunt, that's a single stock research note, and that's written by a

stock analyst who usually specializes in just one sector, so it might be house builders, telecoms, tech, and they live and breathe that industry. Another type of research which investment banks also produce is economic research, so they have a team of economists, and it's their job to produce the macro top-down information which feeds into the investment process. So, for example, they'll talk about what the central bank's doing, they'll talk about inflation, GDP growth, all of which affects your investments. Then, if we drill down into the asset types, there'll usually be an interest rate research department, sometimes it's called fixed income research, and these analysts specialize in things like government bonds, but also things like credit, so corporate bonds, where they'll talk about single issuers and their credit quality and which trades are interesting at a given point in time. Rate strategists will also have a view on whether rates are going up or down and monetary policy from the central banks. Then, we turn to foreign exchange, and the standard joke is that investment banks' foreign exchange analysts are there to make the

equity analysts look good because their forecasts are even more difficult to make. At least with equities, they tend to drift upwards, whereas foreign exchange doesn't, and so it's much harder to make reasonable forecasts over the short or medium term. But they have a go, and they'll usually talk about the major currency pairs, things like Sterling, the dollar, the Yen, the Euro. But you also do have Emerging Market currency strategists who specialize in just those markets. And then finally, you've got commodity strategists, often from Australia, given its importance in the commodity space. But they have an opinion about things like gold or perhaps copper, Industrial Metals, or it could even be things like wheat or agricultural products. But it's not just investment banks which write that kind of research. As someone who's a retail investor like you and I, there's lots of free information available in terms of research from central banks. So if you read the minutes of one of the FED meetings, for example, there's often an analysis of the US economy, the global

economy financial markets made by the team of economists who work at the FED. There's a similar thing from the Bank of England in its monetary policy reports. Also, there are institutions like the International Monetary Fund, which publishes outlooks which look at the global economy. It makes forecasts about what the GDP growth rates will be for each of the countries around the world, and it also advises on what those countries should be doing. So, it's not just investment banks that publish research; it's also these institutions which publish free research, which are great resources if you want to keep informed about what's going on. Now, my original definition of research was very broad because a lot of people get their research from YouTube, and I'd argue that some of the research which is published on YouTube, on TikTok, is as high quality as the research which is published by investment banks. All I'd say is look at the background of the person who's giving the views. For example, Kyler Scanland, who you can see here beside me, came up with the idea of a Vibe session.

which is an interesting idea, which is that even though the US hard data didn't show any kind of signs of a recession in 2024. If you ask people how they felt about the economy, the vibes were that things were not good. So, she created a word which actually entered the English dictionary. But I'd argue that a lot of people nowadays use things like TikTok and YouTube much more than they would say the research at an investment bank, particularly retail investors, people who don't work for an institution, who are just investing off their own bat for their own pension or their own savings. So, all I'd say is if you are going to use TikTok or YouTube or other social media to inform you about investing, just look into the background of the person who's giving the information. Are they educated in the field in which they're talking about? If not, should you really pay much attention to what they say? Or is it just opinion? Is it conspiracy theories? And is it doom porn? Are they always saying the same thing that markets are going to crash? If so,

you should take it with a pinch of salt and maybe consider another source. Today's video is sponsored by Saxo, an award-winning UK investment platform. Where do you do your research before deciding which stock, ETF, or fund you should buy? I like to use data and research, as you know, to make my investment decisions, and one platform that provides professional-quality research is the recently launched Saxo Investor from Saxo. What I like about the platform is that they have a team of experts, not just content writers, who write daily analysis about what's going on in financial markets and how they impact your investments. So, whether you're looking for some inspiration, trying to diversify your portfolio, or manage your risk better, they have smart, actionable content for everybody. One cool feature that they have is the screener functionality that lets you filter hundreds, if not thousands, of stocks, ETFs, funds, and bonds based on all sorts of things like sectors, ESG risk rating, annual returns, and much more. So, you can make really informed decisions about your investments. But one of the standout features of this

new platform are their investment theme baskets. These are curated lists of stocks and ETFs that focus on the hottest market long-term trends like AI, semiconductors, and even the upcoming US election. So, whether you're a beginner or a seasoned pro at investing and you want to take your investing to the next level, check out Saxo's new platform. And to help you get started as a view of Pension Craft, you get a special time-limited offer from Saxo to invest in 100 popular US stocks commission-free when you open an account with them using the link below. Terms and conditions apply. To learn more, just go to that link in the description. So, why is research useful in the first place? I think the primary use of research is that it's written by people who are obsessed with a given field and know almost everything about it. So, if you want to be informed about everything, well, why not use specialists in each field to keep you informed? For example, when I first read about the commodity super cycle, it was based on

investment research which was published by an investment bank, and I made a trade on the back of it, which was very profitable. Now, I wouldn't have been aware of it, and I wouldn't have discussed it on YouTube, and I certainly wouldn't have traded it unless I'd have read that research in the first place. So, if you do want to keep informed of trends in equity, in foreign exchange, in macroeconomics, then research is a great way to keep on top of things. That would also apply to things like macroeconomics and big shifts that we're seeing currently, for example, in monetary policy. We're going, for example, from a world in which rates are very restrictive, very high, to one in which they're not so restrictive. And the question is, what influence is that going to have on markets? So, by reading research, you can inform yourself about the change, but also what impact it's likely to have. Another point is that these institutions typically have huge resources, many staff to actually do the analysis, and each of those staff members will have their own

specialty, for example, one of the things which I'm always quoting is the S&P index versus active report. This is created by S&P Dow Jones indices. You can see the infographic about it here, but what this report does would just be impossible for me to do. It tracks active funds around the world, thousands of them based in each country, and it looks to see what proportion of them are beaten by their index. So, for example, if we look at the US, you can see here that 79% of US active funds were beaten by their passive benchmark, which is the S&P 500, and that's over a 5-year period. Now, there's no way I could do this kind of analysis with this kind of breadth, and when I first learned about this after I left the investment banking world, it completely transformed the way I saw investing, and I've been sharing that message ever since. So, by using this institutional research, you can inform yourself and use those resources to your benefit. Now, let's consider the risks.

that go with using research, and I'll start off with a quote in Russian, which I'm going to mispronounce. I'm sorry for people who do speak Russian. Верь, но проверяй (Vdi no prev vdi), which means trust but verify. It's absolutely fine to use research, but it's always good to use it as the starting point for your own investigations. Always kick the tires, think to yourself, can this be true? and then try and back up some of the facts. Often, what is published as research is simply marketing, a way for, say, a YouTube channel or a TikTok channel to get clicks. That's good for them, but it's not necessarily good for you. So, it's always worthwhile knowing what the publishers' incentives are for publishing their research. In the case of investment bank research, it's often a commercial interest. There's prestige if they have good analysts and they get on TV to talk about their research, certainly, but there can also be a commercial benefit in that the company that you talk about will do business with your investment bank or

Perhaps the research will make your counterparty trade with you more often, in which case that could also benefit you because that flow comes your way and it makes you some money. So always use those incentives to see if what's being published is going to benefit you or just the publisher of the information. But I'd reiterate again, you should always do your own research. If it's ringing alarm bells in any way whatsoever, then just ignore it. So I think a lot of the published research can be useful to us as retail investors to keep us informed, to tell us about trends which are ongoing which we might not have been aware of, but also to transform our views of what's going on in markets just like that SPE research or that 100 years of returns. All I'd say is be careful of the incentives of the publisher and just make sure that it's in your best interests as well as theirs. Now don't forget our offer from Saxo. As a VI of Pension Craft, you get a special time-limited offer from Saxo to invest.

in 100 popular US stocks commission-free. So, if you open an account using the link in the description below, you can make use of that offer. And as always, thank you for listening.

Best Investment Research To Help Inform Your Choices

My name is Ramin Nakisa and I started PensionCraft in 2016 as I felt strongly that I wanted to teach people how to invest well for themselves so they could stop making costly mistakes and losing their money through having to pay unnecessarily high fees.

Before starting PensionCraft, I worked in investment banking as a strategist and I was a frequent contributor on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. I have written two books about finance and investment: one for professional investors and one that explains how to buy and sell volatility using exchange-traded products.

I publish a new video on YouTube every Saturday and you can join me for a live Q&A on the 1st Thursday of every month at 7pm UK time.

If you want to learn how to become a better investor then why not join our friendly membership at pensioncraft.com?


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투자 리서치는 개인에게 투자에 대한 정보를 제공하는 간행물을 제공하며, 일반적인 유형으로는 Peel Hunt와 같은 회사의 상업적 리서치와 대학의 학술 리서치 등이 있습니다.

상업적 연구는 동료 검토가 부족한 경우가 많지만, 학술 연구는 필터링 과정을 거치기 때문에 신뢰도가 더 높습니다.

이 동영상에서는 다양한 유형의 연구와 그 신뢰성, 그리고 재정적 목표를 달성하는 데 도움이 될 수 있는 출처에 대해 살펴봅니다.

투자 은행에는 다양한 부문을 전문으로 하는 애널리스트가 있어 투자 프로세스에 정보를 제공하는 경제 리서치를 작성합니다.

또한 금리, 외환, 원자재에 초점을 맞춘 부서가 있어 각각 인사이트와 예측을 제공합니다.

또한 중앙은행과 IMF와 같은 기관에서 무료로 제공하는 리서치는 개인 투자자에게 유용한 정보를 제공합니다.

소셜 미디어가 투자 결정에 미치는 영향

2024년 미국에서는 경기 침체의 조짐이 보이지 않음에도 불구하고 사람들의 경제에 대한 인식은 부정적이었습니다.

많은 개인 투자자들이 투자 조언을 얻기 위해 틱톡이나 유튜브와 같은 소셜 미디어 플랫폼에 의존하고 있어 정보의 신뢰성에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

삭소의 새로운 투자 플랫폼은 전문가 수준의 리서치 및 전문가 분석과 함께 주식 선별 및 선별된 투자 테마 바스켓과 같은 기능을 제공하여 투자자가 정보에 입각한 결정을 내릴 수 있도록 지원합니다.

은행의 투자 리서치는 귀중한 인사이트를 제공하고 트레이딩 결정에 정보를 제공하여 수익성 있는 결과를 이끌어낼 수 있습니다.

이러한 기관은 방대한 리소스와 전문 인력을 보유하고 있기 때문에 개인이 분석을 복제하기 어렵습니다.

리서치는 유익하지만 정보를 확인하고 발행인의 인센티브에 유의하는 것이 중요합니다.

리서치가 트레이딩에 미치는 영향

공개된 리서치는 거래 상대방이 더 자주 거래하도록 영향을 줄 수 있으며, 잠재적으로 개인 투자자에게도 도움이 될 수 있습니다.

게시자의 인센티브에 주의하고 개인 리서치에 우선순위를 두는 것이 중요합니다.

리서치는 시장 동향과 변화에 대한 귀중한 인사이트를 제공할 수 있지만 투자자는 자신의 최선의 이익과 일치하는지 확인해야 합니다.