글로벌 전기 자동차 시장 도전과 기회

### 전기 자동차 산업과 관세가 중국 기업에 미치는 영향 분석
* 🔋 정부 보조금 축소, 신차 출시 지연 등의 요인으로 전기차 판매 성장세가 다소 둔화되었지만, **5월 하이브리드 판매량은 32%, 순수 전기차 판매량은 11% 증가**하는 등 미국 시장은 잠재력을 보여주고 있습니다.
* 🚗 현대자동차와 기아자동차는 빠르게 생산을 확대할 수 있는 능력과 **하이브리드 부문에서 강력한 실적**을 바탕으로 **전기차 시장에서 유리한 위치**를 점하고 있습니다.
* 💰 GM의 자사주 매입 프로그램과 전 세계 자동차 주식의 상대적으로 낮은 수익률에서 알 수 있듯이 **현대차와 기아차는 주주 수익률을 높일 수 있는 여지**가 있습니다.
* 🇨🇳 미국과 유럽이 중국산 전기차와 배터리에 관세를 부과하려는 계획은 **전기차, AI, 반도체와 같은 산업에 초점을 맞추고 있다는 것**을 의미하며, 이는 중국 기업에게 도전이 될 수 있습니다.
* 🔒 미국과 유럽의 규제와 경쟁은 **한국 배터리 기업, 특히 중저가 부문에서 기회**를 창출할 수 있습니다.
* 🇺🇸 미국의 관세 결정은 **공화당과 민주당의 지속적인 경쟁**의 일환으로 보이며, 대선 이후에도 상황이 크게 달라지지는 않을 것으로 예상됩니다.
* 🌏 전기차와 배터리에 대한 중국의 관심이 높아지고 내부 구조조정에 대한 분위기가 조성되고 있는 만큼 **향후 상황을 면밀히 모니터링**할 필요가 있습니다.

보조금 감소, 정전, 중국 브랜드와의 경쟁 심화 등의 요인으로 인해 글로벌 전기차 시장의 성장률이 정체되고 있습니다.

So, originally, they were talking about imposing a 25% tariff, but now they are talking about imposing a 100% tariff, which means they want to completely block cars from entering. However, in the past, in cases like the US and the Eurozone, when we were fiercely fighting, they didn't pay much attention to industries like steel. Because they thought it was good for them to fight. But this time, with electric cars, AI, and semiconductor industries, they have no choice but to be sensitive to these areas. These industries are the ones they have to foster. If you could touch on the current situation of the electric car industry, including Hyundai Motor, from the second half of last year, the sales volume and growth rate of electric cars have decreased slightly. So, by the end of the year, it seems to have reached around the mid-30% compared to last year. This year, at the beginning of the year, I mean, talking about the US market, we can't sell to China.

Currently, from the perspective of the U.S. market, but if you look at the beginning of the year, it seems to have fluctuated around 10-11%, so the growth rate has slowed down a bit. The slowdown has various reasons, but to give a few examples, until the end of last year, there were about 43 items eligible for supplementary feeding, but after the regulations for child support were applied, those not eligible were all removed, reducing it to nine items, which led to a decrease in purchasing power. It became a bit difficult to buy electric cars, which also decreased, and there were delays in new car releases. Additionally, there were large-scale power outages at the beginning of the year, leading to a somewhat negative change in the overall image. However, recently, looking at the data for April and May, regarding electric car sales, in Germany...

The decrease in automotive harnesses has occurred, I'm telling you based on U.S. standards. However, on the other hand, when looking at GM or Hyundai Kia's Stellar Dislife, Tesla sells a lot more, so the decrease rate on that side is significant, which has led to a significant decrease in the sales growth rate itself. Because of these factors, there is a perspective that electric vehicles are improving and selling well, but when looking at the total, it is true that the growth rate has stagnated. You can see both perspectives. Recent data released in May by Mirae Asset Securities shows that the overall automotive sales growth rate is 5% in the U.S. However, among them, hybrid sales increased by 32%, and then pure electric vehicles by 11% based on May sales figures.

Companies that now have the intention to actively sell seem to be increasing. It seems like we need to focus on that. If we approach it in that context, in the end, it seems that those who have the willingness to sell and promote vigorously in the second half of this year will have a relatively better position. If we look at it from a monetary perspective, first, it seems that Hyundai and Kia in Korea will enter, and then GM or Stellantis will likely take the lead. As for Tesla, we may need to wait a bit longer. Regarding Hyundai and Kia, the market itself is not a growing industry, even though car sales are increasing by 5% in the US. The car market is not a growing industry itself. The electric vehicle segment is rising within the car market, and as demand for replacements increases, it will likely grow.

But now that I have all the portfolios, I can produce electric cars, have the platform, and can mass-produce them. Then, when it reaches a certain level, even if it's profitable, I can quickly turn around. Now, we have built this platform and when it comes to Hyundai and even Kia, confidently speaking, also in terms of hybrid cars, actually, currently, Hyundai and Kia are leading in the global market for hybrid cars, not to mention Toyota. Hyundai has always had a strong image of being affordable when it comes to internal combustion engines, but with Genesis rising a lot, and with SUVs rising a lot, the image is improving, and the overall value of the car is increasing. So, looking at all these things, for companies like Hyundai and Kia, even though the market growth rate of the automotive industry itself is not high, there is still more potential for the future.

You can expect more here, and what you need to pay attention to now is that recently GM's stock price has been doing well. It's not because they are selling electric cars well, but the number of electric cars has increased. What they are working hard on now is that they first bought back their own shares for $10 billion. As soon as it was finalized, they immediately purchased an additional $6 billion. The $6 billion is about 11% of the market capitalization. I hope Hyundai Motor does the same, not asking them to do so. Also, looking at the shareholder return rate, automotive stocks are relatively low. Globally, if they are low in the market, it's because they are not a growth industry. However, now they are focusing on electric cars and strengthening them. That's why Tesla's stock price soared. But the rest couldn't rise like that. The reason why the stock price has started to rise recently is leading.

The book has been enhanced, but as I wrote here, if you look at it, as I mentioned earlier, in fact, in the case of a company like that, if they buy back $10 billion in shares right after finishing purchasing $6 billion, that alone accounts for over 20% of the market capitalization. It might be close to 30%, not quite 30%. They are buying a tremendous amount. In addition, they can also increase dividends. However, compared to that, in the case of Hyundai, the shareholder return rate, which is essentially returning profits to shareholders, is at a level of 25%, while Japanese car companies are at 50%, and even Ford is over 100%. I'm not saying they should do it like Ford, but still, they should continue to make profits, expand, invest there, and there are many things they need to do. So, don't you think there is some room to increase shareholder returns a bit for Hyundai, Kia, especially for Kia.

The situation is that Hyundai has revealed its plan for share buybacks, but Hyundai has not yet disclosed that, so there is actually some expectation. Investors know that it will be in August now, originally it was supposed to be in June. It seems like it's being pushed back, and from there, won't that come out? Now, GM is buying back its shares like that, and Kia is even carrying out share buybacks. Then, if we look at companies like Toyota that pay dividends by combining share buybacks, they are still maintaining around 50%. Even if it's not 50%, they should raise it significantly more than now just with that. And the exchange rate is good these days, the exchange rate can only be good for the automotive market. Also, as I mentioned earlier, when Genesis brand starts selling, it will affect Avante or Sonata.

Selling one car has a much larger margin than selling multiple cars, so that's a point. Next, they are very strong in new car releases and new car development. Driving, Hyundai-Kia's strength in new cars is strong. In addition, there was news today, and it seems like there was an announcement. There was talk about Hyundai Motor Company's listing in India. It seems to be about $4 trillion in value. That means the company's value will increase by that much. So, in the case of Hyundai-Kia, it went up a bit today, but it's been going up continuously. It's okay to keep an eye on it. Especially last year, Hyundai Motor gave about 12,000 won in dividends. They will probably give more. They have already increased by 500 won per quarter, and if they announce it and strengthen it,

That could also be a plus alpha, and as India shows the listing, the intrinsic value will rise, and if these things come together, Hyundai Kia can still be seen positively in the future. What's being mentioned here now is related to the global electric vehicle dividend policy. But if you look at the dividend propensity, huh, Hyundai and Kia, it's all listed like this, Hyundai 255%, Kia 25%. But all Kia has risen to around 30%, and then considering even share buybacks or in the case of Toyota, taking into account the dividend propensity, looking at it, the shareholder return rate increases to 51%, as written below in the footnotes. So, considering these things, Hyundai has additional room to maneuver. For example, American cars like GM or Ford have a shareholder return rate of over 100%, which means they give back more than profits, so it's not the situation to do that.

It seems that we are similar, and we still have a little more room. Even if you see it that way, it seems okay. How do you see the current situation of Chinese tariffs after following the U.S.? First of all, the U.S. has not decided on the tariffs, but they are saying they will impose a 100% tariff. Originally, a 25% tariff was imposed, but now they are saying they will impose a 100% tariff, which means they won't allow cars to enter at all. Next, in Europe, there used to be a 10% tariff, but now they are saying they will impose up to 38% additional tariffs. This discussion is now about how this will affect the domestic electric vehicle battery market. In the electric vehicle market, countries like China always provide subsidies to grow the industry. Whenever they try to grow the industry, they always provide subsidies. If we look back, in the early 2000s, after joining the WTO, China was the first to jump into the chemical industry. Initially, they jumped into steel and chemicals.

Unfortunately, the industries we focused on were not lucky, and almost right after that, then again, the shipbuilding industry started to decline. As we competed, we collapsed. In fact, recently, a lot of money was invested in LCDs, preventing Korean companies from participating by creating subsidies. Consequently, in China, subsidies were given for vehicles equipped only with batteries made by Chinese companies in the secondary battery sector. So, Korean secondary battery companies couldn't sell in China. Therefore, as companies grew in this way, everyone started investing to receive subsidies, causing an oversupply. With oversupply, they couldn't figure out what to do, so they ended up dumping them cheaply abroad. This policy of always resorting to such practices was used, but now.

In the past, when we were fiercely fighting with countries like the United States and the European Union, we didn't pay much attention to industries like steel. Because they thought it would be good for them to fight as it was not their main focus. But this time, with electric cars, AI, and now semiconductor industries becoming sensitive, these are the industries that they are now nurturing, and ultimately, these are the industries that can radiate and connect in the end. So, ultimately, it can be a problem that can have a direct impact even if you don't pay attention. Various issues can be highlighted, so they have just started drawing a line in this area. Once they start taking action, it will inevitably become a bit more inconvenient for Chinese companies, like Chinese car manufacturers, to enter compared to before. And I also have some prejudice against Chinese cars, to be honest. That's why things are going this way.

It seems like it won't be comfortable to ride, you have to risk your life to drive. When you watch things like YouTube, you see a lot of negative things, so maybe that's why, I don't know. There are many things suddenly being set up like a fire, and they say it's a fire. But now, if something like this gets blocked, China won't retaliate immediately, but you have to keep in mind that ultimately, if this happens, the U.S. has blocked Chinese brands and companies from entering since the FOC regulations. But the problem is, in Europe, Chinese companies can still build car companies there. You can't stop that. But now, when they make something, there will be regulations for batteries and such. So, competition will be tougher. It's not just about making cars within China, it won't be cheap anymore, right? So, compared to before, now China, Chinese...

Even if a company produces our products in Europe, they cannot make them cheap just based on the price. So, when they face competition, eventually quality issues will arise. In that context, it's not bad for us. We can also provide a unique space, understanding this context. In fact, the U.S. saying not to come in with a 25% or 100% price increase is practically a way of competition between the Republicans and Democrats. After the presidential election, I believe that we will not be able to return to a close relationship with China like in the past, so I am thinking that this situation will not continue. Recently, even the Chinese authorities are focusing on electric cars and batteries.

Now, it's a bit of a mood to start internal restructuring, so now it seems necessary to keep an eye on those things. Oh, I think I can say that a bit, and in this case, industrially, when it comes to competition, Korea has always been at a disadvantage competing with China. Because cheap is good, so until then, it didn't matter if you guys were better or worse, as long as we bought cheaply. But now, it's a situation where we have to fight fiercely, and if the U.S. stays still, it won't be good. But they know how to make cars, but starting a battery business now is technologically challenging, so since you guys are making batteries, we now have some breathing room in that aspect. In Europe, there are many battery factories and battery companies, but except for Northvolt, it's not properly established yet.

It seems that there is no emerging battery company, and even if one is established now, it is likely that Korean companies will enter the local market. In fact, Korean companies will indirectly or directly receive some assistance as battery companies in that region. When looking at this context, in the case of secondary batteries, I have been talking about the cathode segment. It created a hidden space. If that wasn't there, it wouldn't be easy for us to leave our mark. In case we are pushed out by price, there might be a difficult space for us. Even if the products have significant differences, in such aspects, it is positive that we have created a hidden space. And later on, later on, now.

In terms of pricing, currently, China mainly focuses on LFP, while we are mainly focused on the NCM series. Recently, we have been actively developing in the direction of nickel for mid-tier batteries and are also heavily involved in the development of low- to mid-range batteries like LMFT. As these products begin to commercialize and become popular, many opportunities will open up for us. In the US, there is a trend of starting regulations on Chinese batteries in the energy storage market. Currently, in the ESS sector, LFP batteries have become commercialized by LG Chem in Korea, while others will take about 25 years to progress. As the market gradually shifts towards replacements, companies that can compete will eventually exclude Chinese batteries, limiting the options available.

In terms of profit, the three major battery companies in South Korea or the companies in Europe, in that context, if our markets and our companies can slightly overcome this difficult situation in the future, then maybe the next time, we can proceed more comfortably than expected. That's how I see it.

2차전지 IRA 수혜주 결정됐다. K-배터리 반등 기회 '여기서' 나온다 (이영훈 이사, 하이투자증권 / 2부)

* 출연신청 & 제휴 및 광고문의 : ssid@dpnstud.io


신사임당

관세가 전기 자동차 산업에 미치는 영향

관세 논의가 25%에서 100%로 전환되면서 자동차 수입이 완전히 차단될 가능성이 있으며, 특히 전기차, AI, 반도체 산업에 초점을 맞추고 있습니다.

규제 변화, 정전, 구매력 감소 등 다양한 요인으로 인해 전기차 판매 성장률이 둔화되고 있습니다.

전반적인 침체에도 불구하고 미국에서 하이브리드와 순수 전기차 판매량은 각각 32%, 11% 증가해 하반기에도 전기차를 적극적으로 홍보하고 판매하려는 기업들의 의지가 커지고 있습니다.

자동차 시장에서의 현대와 기아의 잠재력

현대자동차와 기아자동차는 SUV와 제네시스 브랜드의 인기 상승과 함께 하이브리드 자동차의 글로벌 시장에서 두각을 나타내고 있습니다.

특히 전기차 부문에서 두 회사의 미래 성장 잠재력은 매우 높습니다.

현대자동차의 주주 수익률은 다른 자동차 회사에 비해 상대적으로 낮기 때문에 향후 수익률을 높일 여지가 있습니다.

현대자동차의 자사주 매입 및 성장 잠재력

현대자동차는 GM과 기아차의 전철을 밟아 8월에 자사주 매입을 발표할 것으로 예상되며, 당초 6월 계획에서 미뤄질 가능성도 있습니다.

인도 상장 가능성으로 기업 가치가 상승할 것으로 예상되며, 배당 성향이 강해 주주 환원율이 높아질 여지가 있습니다.

이는 신차 출시에 대한 강점과 결합되어 현대 기아차의 미래를 긍정적으로 전망할 수 있습니다.

관세 변화가 중국 전기차 배터리 시장에 미치는 영향

미국은 중국산 자동차에 대한 관세를 100%로 인상하여 중국산 자동차의 시장 진입을 차단하는 방안을 검토하고 있습니다.

한편 유럽도 높은 관세를 부과할 계획이어서 국내 전기차 배터리 시장에도 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

중국은 2차 전지 부문과 같은 자국 산업에 보조금을 지급하는 관행으로 인해 공급 과잉과 해외 덤핑이 발생하여 다른 국가와의 긴장을 초래하고 있습니다.

이러한 관세 정책의 변화와 전기 자동차 및 반도체와 같은 신흥 산업에 대한 집중은 중국 기업에 상당한 영향을 미쳐 해외 시장 진출이 더욱 어려워질 수 있습니다.

글로벌 경쟁이 자동차 산업 및 배터리 시장에 미치는 영향

미국이 중국 브랜드의 진입을 차단하면서 중국산 제품에 대한 경쟁이 치열해지고 품질 문제가 발생할 가능성이 커지고 있습니다.

이러한 경쟁은 전기차와 배터리를 중심으로 미국과 중국의 관계에 변화를 일으키고 있습니다.

이러한 상황으로 인해 한국과 같은 다른 국가들도 자동차 및 배터리 시장의 경쟁 심화에 적응해야 할 필요성이 커지고 있습니다.

한국 배터리 기업이 글로벌 시장에 미치는 영향

한국 배터리 업체들이 신흥 배터리 시장을 장악하면서 다른 경쟁 업체들을 밀어낼 가능성이 높습니다.

중대형 배터리용 NCM 계열과 니켈에 대한 집중은 확장 기회를 창출할 것으로 예상됩니다.

미국 에너지 저장 시장에서 중국산 배터기를 규제하는 추세는 향후 한국 기업들에게 유리하게 작용할 수 있습니다.