금융 위기: 영향, 위험 및 딜레마

### SVB 뱅크런 위기와 미국 경제에 미치는 영향
* 🏦 Svb 뱅크런 사태 이후 시장에 패닉이 확산되면서 **JP모건, 뱅크 오브 아메리카, 웰스파고, 씨티그룹 등 대형 은행의 주가가 지속적으로 하락**하고 있습니다.
* 💸 뱅크런의 특성상 인출 압력이 계속되고, 기준금리가 계속 상승하면 **채권 금리도 상승**하여 손실이 더 커질 수 있습니다.
* 📉 이 사태에 대한 시장의 평가는 매우 혹독했는데, **정규 거래 시간 동안 SVB의 주가는 60% 하락**했고, **시간 외 시장에서는 22% 추가 하락**했습니다.
* 🔒 손실이 늘어나는 것은 불가피하며, **SVB는 완전한 자본 잠식을 막기 위해 15%의 신주 발행**을 발표했습니다.
* 🏛 이번 사태로 비슷한 사업 구조를 가진 은행들의 안정성에 대한 우려가 커지면서 **은행 도미노 붕괴**로 이어질 수 있다는 우려가 나오고 있습니다.
* 📈 연방준비제도이사회가 인플레이션과 경제를 통제하는 데 어려움을 겪고 있는 가운데, 시장은 **다가오는 FOMC의 금리 결정**을 예의주시하고 있습니다.
* 🏦 현재 상황에서 파월 의장이 연준의 바람대로 금리를 계속 인상한다면 **은행들의 불안감은 더욱 커질 가능성**이 높습니다.
* 🤔 파월 의장은 **인플레이션을 통제해야 할 필요성과 추가 금리 인상으로 인한 위험 사이의 균형**을 맞춰야 하는 딜레마에 직면해 있습니다.

Svb 은행의 잠재적 파산은 시장 붕괴와 금융 불안정으로 이어지는 연쇄 반응을 촉발할 수 있습니다.

Yesterday, the number of claims for unemployment benefits was high. It seems like the recession is starting. People were saying, The stock market went up because the interest rate might not be lowered to 0.5%. But with the Svb Bank Run crisis, that doesn't matter anymore. Panic has set in. As you can see, there was no rebound, just a continuous decline. This continued until the afternoon. If a bank cannot return the money to its customers and goes bankrupt, it's not just that bank that fails. Since the money is interconnected, other banks could also fail, and companies could collapse one after another. In 2008, the United States experienced trauma from the Lehman crisis. But now, if one bank goes bankrupt like Svb, it's inevitable that the stock market will have a seizure. In conclusion, I don't think that Svb alone will reach the level of Lehman, but if a bigger bank collapses following the Svb crisis, then...

There may be genuine fear in the market. However, after Lehman, Basel III was introduced. As the soundness of banks' assets has greatly improved, it is believed that the situation will not reach the same level as in the past. Discussions like bank runs and financial collapses become a luxury. When banks collapse, it's like the ground collapsing. Companies borrow money from banks and conduct business to make money based on the financial foundation of banks. If the ground collapses, the building cannot remain intact. Usually, when a financial crisis hits, many companies collapse. Banks collapse, unemployment rates soar, and the economy stagnates. Meanwhile, inflation has not been controlled now. It may be controlled later. Controlling inflation is not a precursor but a consequence.

The Fed still needs water, but should we stop raising interest rates? It can be embarrassing. If we hesitate and miss the golden time, a bigger collapse could occur. Of course, we hope it doesn't go that far. When looking at the soundness of large banks, it's completely different from 2007 and 2008; they are much healthier. However, the fact that such concerns arise is not good for the stock market. Therefore, it may be desired in the market, even though it's not at the stage to discuss these issues. In a situation where Powell continues to raise interest rates, like the scare of the collapse of the UK pension fund in October last year, it's about instilling fear. We will really raise interest rates more. It seems like the market will collapse, the banks will collapse. Are you okay? Can you endure it? By pressuring with such news, the Fed may have no choice but to suppress interest rate hikes.

You can only do 0.25 out of 0.5, so you can do it three times with 0.25. If indicators show an economic downturn, deflation, or rising unemployment, the Federal Reserve may feel pressured to raise interest rates in the future. Then, the stock market could actually rise. Of course, this kind of situation can occur. In such a pressurizing situation, prices are not likely to fall. From the Fed's perspective, they are now facing a dilemma. Depending on their choice, the stock market could fluctuate. The stock market may become more volatile than recently. When these events occur, the market often reacts unexpectedly, either rising despite negative news or falling due to positive news. This kind of volatility in the market can lead to unexpected events. Other than SB, where are the risks high?

We are a bank that does business in San Francisco, primarily lending to startups and venture capitals. However, as interest rates rise and liquidity decreases, the funding sources for venture companies dry up. Initially, these startups have no or little revenue and continue to rely on investments. Since they cannot attract investments, they cannot repay their loans. While other banks have lent relatively small amounts to startups, the impact is minimal for them. However, our bank heavily invested in startups, so if the funding cannot be recovered, it will be recognized as a loss on our balance sheet. As the situation worsens with SUVs having poor profits and asset holdings, their credit ratings are downgraded. Moody's has downgraded them. The idea of lending to startups means that if you deposit money in this bank, you can also get high deposit interest rates, like a high-risk high-return situation.

Investors who wanted to invest a lot of money are now worried about stability, so they will withdraw their money. The bank needs to sell the held bonds to return the money as customers request withdrawals. They said, Wait until I return the money now. Please refrain from withdrawals. So, they need to sell the bonds, but as the interest rates have increased, the bond prices have dropped. If they sell the bonds, the loss is confirmed, and the capital decreases. They had $90 billion in bonds held, but the valuation is $76 billion. Why did they incur a loss of $15 billion? The Fed raised interest rates, causing bond interest rates to rise, and bond prices to fall. So, they are in a state of some loss. The capital is $16.5 billion, but the loss is.

If you say 15 billion dollars, the remaining amount is 1.5 billion dollars. If the bond interest rate rises a little more, it could lead to complete capital erosion and potential bankruptcy. The amount of bonds to be sold this time is 28.6 billion dollars, but the evaluation amount is 26.15 billion dollars, resulting in a loss. Due to the characteristics of bankruptcy, there is continuous pressure for withdrawals, and if the benchmark interest rate continues to rise as Paul mentioned, the bond interest rate will rise again. It has dropped now and hit 4%, but with today's crisis, it dropped to 3.8%. If Seoul continues to raise the benchmark interest rate, the U.S. interest rate could exceed 4%. Generally, it is not viewed favorably in the market when it exceeds 4%. It could surpass the limit rate, reaching a level where companies and banks can no longer withstand it. That's why [MUSIC]

It is inevitable that the losses will increase, so what can we do? There is only one way to prevent complete capital erosion. We will have to do a 15% rights offering to dilute. Even if we do this, will recovery be possible? I don't think so. It's not a normal bank in the first place. Because the bank lends to startups, will the bank acquire SB View or provide investment to supplement capital? Even if they do, will the loans there be money that can be repaid? They may just be loans with accounting value, which may turn into loans that cannot actually be recovered. So, since lending money here could also result in losses for oneself, no one will be willing to help. There will probably be no one willing to participate in the rights offering. After this incident, how did the stock price react? The market evaluation was very harsh. It dropped by 60%. And in the aftermarket, it dropped by 22%.

In just one day, 80% is gone, but in the market, whether it's a capital increase or whatever, they see this as over. Who would help by saying they will do a capital increase for a company on the verge of collapse, that it can survive? It's not a company with technology or a company with a brand. It's just a company that holds bad debts by borrowing money. Then, are the banks okay? In the market, it seems that it may not be so. J.P. Morgan fell by 5.4%, Bank of America by 6.2%, Wells Fargo by 6.1%, and Citigroup by 4.1%. The stock prices of large banks have been falling continuously. It means two things. As long as interest rates continue to rise, even high-quality banks like SBV will eventually collapse one by one from the bottom. Non-premium customers will not be able to repay their loans, and banks will have to sell bonds at a loss to raise cash and maintain capital.

As credit deteriorates, credit ratings drop, and customer withdrawals increase, step by step, premium-grade customers will rise. Starting from the subprime in 2007 to the bankruptcy of Lehman, one of the top 5 investment banks, in 2008, it is not impossible to see that this process led to it. Secondly, in this process, the economy will greatly stagnate, causing banks to have nowhere to borrow money from, leading to a decrease in trading volume, lack of lending, economic stagnation, less profit from investments, and investment banks struggling to survive. With the Federal Reserve failing to control inflation properly, banks are already reaching their limits, showing that profitability may deteriorate. It is an event that shows that when the structure of Svb and the business is defective, it could happen, but later, U.S. regional banks.

If one falls, the conversation changes. When a bank with a traditional business structure collapses, it serves as a warning that even large banks can collapse. So, what's important is that we shouldn't let a second bankruptcy happen, especially by turning a local bank into one. If it affects banks with traditional businesses, it could lead to even greater panic in the market. The FOMC interest rate decision is set for the 11th, with about ten days left, and an event like this has occurred. If interest rates are raised so high but fail to control inflation, isn't it a mistake of the Fed's interest rate hike omnipotence? Shouldn't there be other measures as well? Who has been loosening money like this behind the Fed's back, causing the failure to control inflation? Such statements could be made. Also, there will be a re-election next year. From the Democratic Party's perspective, something needs to be done quickly now.

As interest rates continue to rise, some may think that the second and third rate hikes could lead to a bank run. Then, the public will be dissatisfied with the current administration, as prices will rise, and they may put more pressure on the Federal Reserve. If Powell cannot freely raise interest rates due to the failure to control inflation properly, he could become a bond hostage at any moment. Alternatively, he may announce a slower pace of interest rate hikes, targeting not a 2% inflation rate but a 3% annual target. It's a very ambiguous choice. There is a high possibility that in the current situation, if Powell continues to raise interest rates as the Fed wishes, banks will become anxious. On the other hand, if he halts the interest rate hikes, he will have to give up on controlling inflation, leading to a dilemma. Therefore, Powell is considering making a cautious decision, and there is a possibility of opting for a middle-ground choice. Recently, [END OF TRANSCRIPT]

As it was a promotional video, people were investing comfortably, but it seems that we have reached a point where volatility is increasing again. Please keep an eye on it and respond accordingly. We will provide you with good information next time as well. Please subscribe, like, and turn on notifications. Thank you.

미국 SVB은행 뱅크런 사태 정리, 미국은행이 무너지기 시작했습니다

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전인구경제연구소

Svb 뱅크런 위기가 시장에 미치는 영향

Svb 뱅크런 위기는 시장에 패닉을 불러일으키며 지속적인 하락과 더 큰 금융 붕괴에 대한 두려움으로 이어지고 있습니다.

은행의 상호 연결성과 연쇄적인 부실 발생 가능성으로 인해 주식 시장의 안정성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

바젤 III의 결과로 대형 은행의 건전성이 개선되어 어느 정도 안심할 수 있지만, 여전히 시장 불안의 원인이 되고 있는 상황입니다.

금리 상승이 주식 시장과 스타트업 대출에 미치는 영향

연방준비제도이사회는 경기 침체 지표에 대응하여 금리를 인상할 수 있으며, 이는 주식 시장의 잠재적 상승으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

금리가 상승하면 스타트업, 특히 이 분야에 많은 투자를 한 은행의 자금 조달원이 고갈되어 잠재적인 손실로 이어질 수 있습니다.

은행은 투자자들이 안정성에 대한 우려로 돈을 인출하는 한편, 금리 상승으로 채권 평가액이 크게 하락하는 딜레마에 직면하게 됩니다.

금리 상승이 SB 뷰와 대형 은행에 미치는 영향

SB 뷰는 채권 금리 상승으로 인해 파산 위기에 직면하여 주가가 크게 하락했습니다.

회사는 완전한 자본 잠식을 막기 위해 15%의 신주 발행을 계획하고 있지만 시장 반응은 냉담하며 회생 가능성은 거의 없습니다.

이러한 상황의 영향은 JP 모건, 뱅크 오브 아메리카, 웰스파고, 씨티그룹과 같은 대형 은행의 주가가 지속적으로 하락하는 데에도 반영되어 금리 상승의 영향에 대한 우려가 더 광범위하게 나타나고 있습니다.

신용 악화가 은행과 경제에 미치는 영향

신용 악화는 프리미엄 등급 고객의 증가로 이어지지만 경기 침체와 은행 수익성 감소의 원인이 되기도 합니다.

리먼 브라더스와 같은 투자 은행의 잠재적 붕괴는 은행 시스템 전체에 도미노 효과를 일으킬 수 있습니다.

다가오는 FOMC 금리 결정과 민주당의 신속한 조치의 필요성은 상황 해결의 시급함을 더하고 있습니다.

금리 상승이 연방준비제도와 파월 의장에 미칠 수 있는 잠재적 영향

금리 상승은 뱅크런과 행정부에 대한 대중의 불만으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

파월 의장은 "채권 인질"이 되는 것을 피하면서 인플레이션을 통제해야 하는 딜레마에 직면해 있습니다.

그는 연간 인플레이션율 3%를 목표로 하는 신중한 중도 결정을 고려하고 있습니다.