백두산 화산 폭발: 예측할 수 없는 시나리오와 대비책

### 백두산 분화: 잠재적 영향 및 대비 전략
* 🌋 백두산은 분화 가능성은 낮지만, **7등급 화산이 폭발할 경우 한국뿐만 아니라 전 세계에 치명적인 결과**를 초래할 것으로 예상되는 대규모 영향의 잠재력을 지닌 화산입니다.
* 🇰🇵 또한 이번 폭발은 **북한 정권의 불안정을 촉발**하여 한국에 대한 신뢰도 문제와 반도체 산업에 미칠 잠재적 영향을 초래할 수 있습니다.
* 💥 화산 폭발의 예측 불가능한 특성을 고려할 때, **즉각적인 피해와 광범위한 지정학적, 경제적 영향을 모두 다루는 포괄적인 시나리오**를 준비하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 🌍 대외적으로 **백두산 분화는 한반도는 물론 주변 국가와 글로벌 시장에 영향을 미치는 중대한 위기**로 인식될 수 있습니다.
* 🤝 잠재적 폭발 및 정권 붕괴와 관련된 위험을 완화하기 위해 한국은 **중국, 러시아, 일본, 미국과 같은 국가들과 적극적으로 외교적 대화**에 참여하여 이러한 시나리오에 대응하는 방법에 대한 공감대를 형성해야 합니다.
* 🚨 백두산 분화와 같이 발생 가능성은 낮지만 영향력이 큰 사건에 대비하고 대응할 때는 **속도가 가장 중요**합니다.
* 🔮 미래학자들은 예상치 못한 시나리오를 **예언이 아닌 미래 변화에 대한 논리적이고 확률적인 예측**으로 제시하며, 이러한 가능성에 대비해 시야를 넓히고 대비하는 것이 필수적입니다.
* 🙏 "오늘 제가 나눈 이야기를 잘 받아들이고 준비해서 **여러분의 시야를 넓히시길 바랍니다.**" - 미래학자 조윤식

백두산 분화는 발생 가능성은 낮지만 영향력이 크기 때문에 잠재적 결과에 대한 종합적인 대비가 필요합니다.

If the 7th grade erupts and the complete physical education disappears, it would be better if it just ends. But that's actually a problem because the unprepared unification is now causing problems. However, the risk of war is somewhat subsiding. But if not, when there is social chaos with Kim Jong-un, there is usually historical evidence that when internal chaos cannot be managed internally, it turns the energy outward. One of them is provocation and war. How would it look from the outside? They absolutely don't trust the factories in Korea. Even if a war doesn't happen, there is a risk. What would happen then? The stock market would go crazy. Volcanoes are unpredictable. It's a situation where it's not a problem even if it erupts right now. You also wrote about the story of the explosion of Mount Baekdu. What is that story? I'm now in the scenario of K Semiconductor Shock, uh.

In the book, various scenarios were presented, and I delved into quite a few unexpected future scenarios. In our language, it's like scenarios you wouldn't expect. There is a clear reason why I presented unexpected scenarios. Futurists present unexpected or unimaginable scenarios for two main reasons. First, unimaginable situations occur more frequently than one might think. For example, COVID-19 is a truly unprecedented event. Nobody expected it. Such events happen quite often. Generally, unexpected and unimaginable scenarios in futurism need to meet two conditions. One is that the probability of it happening is low, so it's something unimaginable. However, if it does happen, it has a strong impact that can change the entire playing field. These two factors combined.

Unexpectedly, we put up a scenario, and now we are monitoring it. From that perspective, the probability of a Baekdu Mountain volcanic eruption is low. However, if it happens, the impact would be enormous. It would not only shock South Korea but also have a direct impact. But the bigger shock is that I created a Baekdu Mountain eruption scenario. It's simply due to a volcanic eruption leading to a natural disaster, like volcanic ash reaching our country. In fact, if a Baekdu Mountain eruption occurs, it can range from level 6 to 8 in terms of volcanic explosivity index. If it reaches about level 6, South Korea would immediately suffer around 11 trillion in damages, and then things like fine dust would last for over a month. Currently, when the fine dust concentration is severe, it goes above 330. And now, the workers'

There may be various health issues affecting our people, but more importantly, the North Korean regime is shaking significantly. So, because of that, my scenario for the Baekdu Mountain volcanic eruption is different. Many people talk about the Baekdu Mountain volcanic eruption scenario just from a natural disaster perspective, but that is significant. However, the more important issue is the possibility of instability in the North Korean regime, which could lead to a serious credibility issue for Korea. It could unfold in a situation where the semiconductor industry could be greatly affected. For example, if an explosion occurs, it can immediately impact the semiconductor industry in terms of fine dust and fine processing. Secondly, if a volcanic eruption occurs, there is a risk to nature. This could lead to problems for Korean factories, such as issues with orders.

One of the big risks is that an additional risk arises and we have to persuade. Another one is if the North Korean regime is shaken, many people in Korea are in danger, and there is a possibility of war breaking out. This is now a concern internationally. If that happens, it could have a significant impact on various parts of the Korean industry, especially the semiconductor industry. I presented this scenario. If Baekdu Mountain really erupts, what scenario will unfold? Let's discuss it more concretely. Typically, as I mentioned earlier, volcanic eruptions have a scale from 0 to 8. Level 8 erupts about once every 50,000 years. So, it can be seen that it erupted once about 25,000 years ago. This is almost like the volcanic eruption in Ireland in the early 2010s, which was more than ten times larger.

It's limited, so this happens once every 50,000 years, but you don't have to worry about it. Volcanic eruptions have a place where they are now erupting. Geologists or experts here are pointing to Yellowstone in the United States as the most likely candidate if a Grade 8 eruption occurs. So, if it erupts there, in fact, chaos will erupt throughout the entire American continent. However, since this happens once every 50,000 years, it seems unlikely to happen in our generation. Now, the scale of volcanic eruptions that we should be concerned about is Grade 7 and below. Grade 7 usually erupts once every thousand years, so we call it a millennium eruption. The problem is that there are about six or seven Grade 7 volcanoes worldwide, and one of them is Baekdu Mountain. Baekdu Mountain erupted about 1-2 years before the extinction of the dinosaurs.

A level 7 eruption occurred a thousand years ago, so it's within the thousand-year cycle period. Currently, it's the millennium in that cycle. Therefore, many people are now discussing the millennium volcanic cycle theory regarding the eruption of Mount Baekdu. Of course, volcanic eruptions do not strictly adhere to this cycle. This is mentioned when discussing a single cycle. Therefore, there is no need to calculate specific years. The point is that since it erupts once every thousand years, it can happen at any time. So, instead of asking whether it will happen this year or next year, it should be viewed as it can erupt at any time. When a millennium-level eruption occurs, as I mentioned earlier, like the 2010 Iceland volcano eruption, it led to the suspension of global air travel, affecting not only our country but also industries like semiconductors and exports.

Every day, we're losing about 10 billion or 20 billion won. Compared to that, this Grade 7 eruption is about 1,000 times bigger. It's not in Iceland, it's right in front of us. That's distribution, that's the grade. And if we look at it historically, Pompeii, you know, a city that disappeared due to a volcanic eruption, that was Grade 5. So, if Grade 7 erupts, North Korea could disappear, at least one. So, if Grade 7 erupts, North Korea, well, it's not just a huge disaster, it's just the end of the maximum. So, if Grade 7 erupts, we may actually need to prepare for rapid unification now. However, as I mentioned earlier, this happens once every thousand years. But if I bring it down a bit to make it somewhat realistic, then it's Grade 6. Grade 6 erupts about once every 100 years. Baekdu Mountain erupts once every 100 years, and once every thousand years, Grade 7 erupts.

It exploded, and since then, it hasn't exploded for 100 years. It exploded once every 100 years with a magnitude of 6. However, as I mentioned, it has been a thousand years since the pattern exploded once a year. The 100 years of the previous magnitude 6 eruption have passed. So, calculating when the next 100 years will be or within this year is meaningless. You shouldn't do that. Therefore, even if a magnitude erupts today, it's not strange. You should think like this. In the early 2000s, about 10 years before 2000, there were two crises. There were more volcanic eruptions than usual, and then, the water temperature of Baekdu Mountain's Heaven Lake rose. Fortunately, now, those two crisis signs have calmed down. So, many people are saying, It's okay now, it's gotten better, but in fact.

Now, earthquakes are gradually occurring on the Korean Peninsula as well. Earthquakes are happening a lot in Japan as well. Therefore, monitoring earthquakes is done a lot. Alarms are also set off. Despite these efforts, earthquakes cannot be predicted. Even though there has been a lot of research on earthquakes, especially in Japan where earthquakes are frequent, earthquakes cannot be predicted at all. However, volcanic eruptions are even more unpredictable. In reality, Japan has many earthquakes and many volcanoes. Japan is one of the countries in the world where volcanic eruptions occur frequently, so a lot of research has been done on volcanoes in Japan.

We cannot predict explosions perfectly. So, recently, one of the volcanoes in Japan erupted, causing many casualties among tourists. Over 100 casualties, including many deaths, occurred. This is because they thought it wouldn't erupt and opened it up. That's the extent of it. Therefore, saying when a volcano will erupt exactly is wrong. Nevertheless, saying it won't erupt is also incorrect. Therefore, based on the periodic theory, if we talked about level 6 or 7, from now on, we need to be careful, be alert, and prepare. However, as I mentioned earlier, Mount Baekdu, in the worst-case scenario, could reach level 7, and it is a situation where level 6 or 5 could easily occur. So, when it erupts, whether it's today, next year, or in ten years, if it erupts, it will match with North Korea's current economic situation, North Korea's famine, and so on.

It is possible to trigger a major crisis in North Korea. Therefore, the government must prepare scenarios not only for natural disasters like volcanic eruptions but also for issues related to the North Korean regime or internal ownership problems. When such events occur, companies will not only face losses due to volcanic disasters, like the 6th grade volcanic eruption I mentioned earlier causing around 10 to 11 trillion won in immediate damages, but also a significant drop in trust when North Korea is shaken, affecting external countries with investments in South Korea. It is crucial to seriously consider these aspects and establish comprehensive scenarios to address all possible measures. That's why I presented a scenario of a volcanic eruption on Mount Baekdu. For example, we need to be prepared for potential issues that may arise within the North Korean regime or if North Korea launches a ballistic missile.

We are not very sensitive to these things. We have become dull. Foreign countries have a different perspective. So we think, Even if a volcano erupts in North Korea, would it be a big problem? No, it's not. What I am talking about right now is an external perspective. For example, let's see. Currently, Israel and Hamas are at war. Israel's capital is not affected. But Israel has divided war zones. Actually, places like Jerusalem in Israel are peaceful now. But why aren't we going there? It's an existing country, so we don't go. This is how outsiders see it. In the case of North Korea, even if they launch ballistic missiles and such, we are so used to it. They even bombed Yeonpyeong Island and launched missiles on our land. They drop them in the sea.

No, having experienced all that, to some extent, even if we do a lot, we don't just think, Oh, this is serious, it's a crisis, something big has happened. But externally, they see us just like we see Israel right now. In that situation, if North Korea conducts a nuclear test, it is seen as very dangerous. However, in such a situation, if something like the Baekdusan eruption occurs and the regime is shaken, how do you think Korea will be viewed from an external perspective? If a major eruption like level 7 occurs and the entire regime disappears, reaching all the way to Pyongyang, and everything just vanishes, it would be better if it just ends. But that is actually a problem because an unprepared reunification is now an issue. So, if a sudden unification issue arises, then China will intervene again, and the chaos will be even worse. This problem is significant. However, despite that, the risk of war will somewhat decrease.

If not, then in the case of the North Korean regime, for example, if there is social unrest, there is usually historical evidence that when internal turmoil cannot be managed internally, the most certain way to break through is to divert energy externally. One of them is provocation leading to war. So, even if the possibility of war increases, how would it look from the outside without going to war? They will never entrust the standards to the factories in South Korea. So, even if war does not occur, there are risks in those areas. What will happen then? The stock market will go crazy. So, this could be a problem faced in these areas. Whether the volcano erupts today, next year, or in ten years, as I mentioned earlier, volcanoes are unpredictable. It is not a problem if it erupts right now because it is a situation where it can't be predicted.

Instead of just thinking it will explode, this is connected to the system issue, which is related to national security issues. Therefore, Plan B scenarios must be prepared in advance, and thorough preparations must be made. If Baekdusan explodes and the North Korean regime collapses, what will happen? When the regime collapses, refugees will come down. Then China will come in under the pretext of calming social unrest in North Korea. Recently, North Korea has been building more enhanced diplomatic relations with Russia. Russia could also come in, making the situation more complicated. If the regime collapses, refugees may come down, or there could be another coup in the military. This can create a complex situation. In fact, it is in South Korea's best interest to achieve a safe, orderly, and peaceful reunification.

However, despite this, when unification happens, there are significant social disruptions in terms of economics and finance that our Republic of Korea will have to face. Therefore, we must be prepared to handle such abrupt and disorderly situations because they can easily lead to very dangerous circumstances. So, how should Korea prepare for this? Since this hasn't happened yet, we cannot take immediate actions. Just like I mentioned earlier, we should not take this lightly and think of it as just a natural disaster. It is crucial to have scenarios prepared regarding the security aspect or how to intervene in North Korea's internal issues if such a situation arises, rather than holding emergency meetings right away.

How to negotiate directly with countries like China, Russia, Japan, and the United States, what kind of dialogue to have, what to request from them, all these aspects need to be addressed immediately and in order without a meeting. Speed is crucial at this point. The most important thing is to recover afterwards, speed is essential. These aspects should not be discussed after the incident, they need to be addressed beforehand. If there are any risks, they should be discussed, and countries like China, Russia, the United States, Japan, or Korea, which can directly or indirectly intervene in the reunification of the Korean Peninsula, need to have rough discussions and reach a consensus. These aspects are actually the most important right now. Depending on the level of preparation and what has actually occurred, starting from handling what has happened to diplomatic relations, these parts are crucial. The support for North Korea is the same, we need to be fast in these aspects.

Depending on how accurately we do it with speed, we can significantly reduce our risk even if it explodes. So, it can be seen that such strategies are needed now. Finally, I would like to ask for a word to the viewers. Thank you. Up to now, we have been discussing. Futurists are not people who predict the future. So, please do not listen to my story like a prophecy. However, I have talked about future changes that we can think about logically and probabilistically. In that sense, I hope you receive and prepare for the story I shared with you today to expand your perspectives. Thank you. Futurist Cho Yoon-sik up until now.

백두산이 수상합니다 북한의 이 것 붕괴한다 (최윤식 박사 / 4부)

* 출연신청 & 제휴 및 광고문의 : ssid@dpnstud.io


신사임당

백두산 화산 폭발의 잠재적 영향

백두산 화산 폭발은 발생 가능성은 낮지만 발생하면 막대한 영향을 미쳐 한국에 큰 피해를 입힐 수 있습니다.

화산 폭발로 인한 건강 문제, 한 달 이상 지속되는 미세먼지, 북한 정권의 불안정성 등 다양한 문제가 발생할 수 있습니다.

또한 반도체 산업에도 큰 영향을 미쳐 미세먼지, 생산 및 주문에 문제가 발생할 수 있습니다.

백두산 화산 폭발은 북한 정권이 불안정해질 경우 전쟁으로 이어질 수 있는 한반도에 심각한 위험을 초래할 수 있습니다.

2010년 아이슬란드 화산 폭발에서 볼 수 있듯이 백두산 화산은 밀레니엄 수준의 분화 주기로 인해 반도체 산업과 전 세계 항공 여행에 혼란을 일으킬 가능성이 있어 국제적인 우려를 불러일으키고 있습니다.

우리 세대에는 가능성이 낮지만 8등급 화산이 폭발할 경우 미국 대륙 전체에 혼란을 야기할 수 있으며, 가장 가능성이 높은 지역은 옐로스톤입니다.

7등급 분화가 북한에 미칠 잠재적 영향

7등급 화산 폭발은 드물기는 하지만 북한에 치명적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

백두산은 100년에 한 번씩 6등급 화산이 분출하는 것으로 알려져 있어 이 지역에 잠재적인 위협이 될 수 있습니다.

화산 활동을 모니터링하려는 노력에도 불구하고 화산 폭발은 여전히 예측할 수 없으며, 특히 지진 활동이 활발한 일본 지역에서는 더욱 그렇습니다.

최근 일본에서 발생한 화산 폭발과 같은 화산 폭발은 예측하기 어렵고 막대한 인명 피해를 초래할 수 있습니다.

백두산이 폭발할 경우 북한에 큰 위기가 발생할 가능성이 있으므로 자연재해와 지정학적 영향 모두에 대한 종합적인 대비가 필요합니다.

백두산 분화의 영향은 즉각적인 피해를 넘어 한국에 대한 신뢰와 투자에 영향을 미침으로써 보다 민감하고 선제적인 접근이 필요합니다.

백두산 분화가 한국과 지역에 미칠 잠재적 영향

백두산의 대규모 분화는 북한 정권의 붕괴와 갑작스러운 통일 문제로 이어질 수 있으며, 중국과 러시아의 개입을 촉발할 수 있습니다.

또한 사회 불안과 난민 위기로 이어져 지역 안정에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

화산 폭발의 예측 불가능성 때문에 국가 안보를 위해 다양한 플랜 B 시나리오에 대한 철저한 사전 대비가 필요합니다.

한국은 북한 내부 문제에 개입할 수 있는 안보 시나리오와 계획을 미리 수립하여 통일로 인해 발생할 수 있는 사회 혼란과 위험 상황에 대비해야 합니다.

통일은 속도가 생명인 만큼 중국, 러시아, 일본, 미국 등 주변국들과 신속하게 협상하고 합의를 이끌어내는 것이 중요합니다.

통일이 되었을 때 리스크를 신속하게 줄일 수 있도록 통일 후유증과 외교적 관계에 대한 선제적 논의와 준비에 중점을 두어야 합니다.