The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad took just over a week. It's the end of a 54-year-long regime in Syria, but it's just the beginning of a reshuffling of power, not just in Syria but in the whole region.

Now, most Syrians are in a state of euphoria that there is an end to this brutal repression and corruption, but what lies ahead is certainly very uncertain for many Syrians. Here's how Syria got to this point and what might happen next with a

group the U.S. designates as a terrorist organization now in charge. The civil war against Assad began during the Arab Spring in 2011, where countries throughout the Middle East saw uprisings and revolutions against authoritarian regimes. Syria was no exception. The Assad regime's immediate

response was brute force, even torturing children who had written graffiti on a wall. This kind of deep humiliation really angered the entire population, and you saw protests spontaneously rise up throughout the country. The regime, unfortunately, doubled down on that brute force, and so eventually you saw many of

those protesters form their own armed groups to defend their communities. Rebels even captured the largest city at the time, Aleppo. It took four years, but Assad eventually recaptured it, using chemical weapons against his own people and largely because of the backing and direct military support of Iran and

Russia. Syria has actually historic ties to Russia, but I think what Putin saw during the war is an opening to become a great power. The Iranians, on the other hand, have long had an alliance with the Assad regime; it's an essential element of the

So-called Shia Crescent, in which Tehran wants access through Iraq, Syria, and into Lebanon and the Mediterranean, through its proxy militias in Iraq and, of course, in Lebanon with Hezbollah. Assad was a key to that route over the last 13 years. Dozens of groups

fought against the Assad regime and each other, but today there are three main ones who hold territory within Syria. There's the Syrian National Army, or SNA, which is basically a hodgepodge of different rebel groups that had fought the regime all over Syria but had been

displaced to northern Syria in recent years. Um, and they have become this somewhat undisciplined army that is backed by Turkey and, unfortunately, often has to do Ankara's bidding for that reason rather than face off with the regime. Then there's the

Syrian Democratic Forces, another hodgepodge of rebel groups, primarily Kurdish fighters—an ethnic minority. They're backed by the U.S. and often clashed with the Turkish-backed SNA. And quite critically, they guard the prisons in the northeast that have ISIS

fighters in them, so they're a really critical component to stability as well. And then there's Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. This is who ultimately led the offensive to capture Damascus. They were originally established as an al-Qaeda affiliate, led by a man who later led

ISIS. They broke ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 but are still considered a terrorist organization by the U.S., Turkey, and others. It was in firm control of Idlib city and much of the province beforehand and had ruled that area with an iron fist.

But it is one of the more disciplined and independent armed groups in Syria. In late November, HTS advanced from Idlib to Aleppo, which they seized in just a few days.  This wasn't just military violence; they also implemented governance. They immediately went into Aleppo and tried to prevent looting,

protect government institutions. They told former soldiers and government employees to stay in their posts as long as they renounced any allegiance to Assad. They went around and tried to reassure minorities that they would not be harmed. Assad and Russian forces launched

air strikes in Aleppo and Idlib. At least 12 civilians were killed, but it didn't slow HTS, who quickly took Hama, Homs, and eventually moved onto the capital, Damascus. As Assad fled to Russia, Syrians celebrated across the country and across the

world. I think what was most shocking is the abandonment of Assad by his stalwart allies, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in particular. Experts believe these allies were too entangled in their own conflicts with Israel and Ukraine to have been much help to Assad. To see the

Russians abandon Assad in the way that they did in recent days was actually quite shocking. They certainly, at least, want to maintain their naval base and their air base in Syria, and yet when the rebels fell Aleppo, messages out of the Kremlin seemed to be, 'Assad, deal with it; we're busy.'

Turkey seems to be the winner in all of this. They have potentially greenlighted this offensive in the first place. They will be able to essentially carry out whatever they want in Syria in the next couple of months as we wait for the new

U.S. president to come in, and that is a really terrifying future for the Kurdish population in Syria. This is a historic day for the Middle East; the collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny in Damascus, offers great opportunity but also is fraught

with significant dangers. Besides the conflicts between Turkish and Kurdish forces, we could see Russia assert power in other countries, or Iran too. Many people are wondering if they will simply accelerate the nuclear program, which it seems like they're doing as a different sort of

deterrent strategy, or even a chemical weapons program for that matter. And within Syria, the occupying forces are still labeled as a terrorist organization, which could make cooperation and humanitarian aid difficult. We know that they have some bad behavior in Idlib, um, but they're

that they're also a very pragmatic group and desperately want to get off of the terrorism designation list, so there is a vulnerability there to exploit. If people are not allowed to invest, if aid is not allowed to get into the country, it's going to be a real disaster.

Likewise, if the designations are lifted without getting any kind of promises or reassurances of what HTS behavior will look like in the future, and other groups as well, it could equally be a disaster for the serious future.

Assad's Reign Is Over. What's Next for Syria? | WSJ

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아사드 정권의 몰락과 지역적 영향

아사드 정권은 일주일 만에 무너져 54년간의 통치를 끝냈습니다.

시리아인들은 행복감을 느끼지만 불확실한 미래에 직면해 있습니다.

2011년 아랍의 봄 동안 내전이 시작되었습니다.

이란의 시아파 초승달에 대한 전략적 이해관계는 아사드 정권과 연결되어 있습니다.

아사드 이후 시리아의 주요 세력

터키의 지원을 받는 시리아 정부군(SNA).

미국의 지원을 받는 시리아민주군(SDF)이 ISIS 포로들을 보호하고 있습니다.

전 알카에다 연계 조직인 하야트 타흐리르 알샴(HTS)이 현재 다마스쿠스를 장악하고 있습니다.

HTS의 다마스쿠스 점령과 국제적 대응

HTS의 신속한 진출과 알레포에서의 거버넌스 구현.

아사드와 러시아군이 공습을 시작했지만 HTS는 계속 진격했습니다.

시리아인들은 아사드의 몰락을 축하했습니다.

러시아의 아사드 포기는 전문가들을 놀라게 했습니다.

향후 발생할 수 있는 잠재적 갈등과 과제

쿠르드족에 대한 터키의 잠재적 영향력과 위협.

러시아와 이란의 지역 내 행동에 대한 우려.

HTS의 테러리스트 지정 및 인도적 지원과 관련된 과제.

Assad's Reign Is Over. What's Next for Syria? | WSJ

Assad's Reign Is Over. What's Next for Syria? | WSJ

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