중국 시장에서의 애플의 성장 과제와 기회

### 중국에서의 도전 속 애플의 성장 전망
* 📉 애플의 중국 실적에 대한 지속적인 우려가 부각되고 있으며, 시장 예상치인 **7%에 비해 실망스러운 한 자릿수의 낮은 성장률 전망치**가 제시되고 있습니다.
* 🚀 그럼에도 불구하고 향후 몇 년 동안 매출 성장을 크게 촉진할 것으로 예상되는 **Apple의 인텔리전스 기능에 대한 낙관적인 전망**이 나오고 있습니다.
* 📊 분석가들은 최근 실적에 맞춰 성장률 전망치를 조정하여 **5%에서 6% 사이**로 정할 가능성이 높으며, 이는 예상보다 더딘 가속화를 나타냅니다.
* 🇨🇳 5%에서 6%의 성장을 예상했던 중국 시장에서 **0.5%의 소폭 성장**은 향후 성장 잠재력에 대한 의문을 불러일으킵니다.
* 🔍 새로운 기능의 도입은 소비자에게는 '있으면 좋은 것'으로 여겨지지만, **내년에 통합 및 개발자 액세스가 개선**되면 그 필요성이 분명해질 수 있습니다.
* 🌍 지정학적 요인은 특히 유럽과 중국과 같은 시장으로 확장하는 데 있어 **애플의 성공에 중요한 역할**을 할 것이며, 잠재적으로 **바이두와 같은 현지 기업과의 파트너십**이 필요할 수 있습니다.
* 📈 서비스 성장세는 여전히 견조하지만, 특히 **Apple 수익의 상당 부분을 차지하는 앱스토어와 구글과의 검색 배치 계약**과 관련된 규제 문제가 남아 있습니다.
* 💡 전반적으로 애플의 인텔리전스 기능이 결국 긍정적인 결과를 가져올 것이라는 조심스러운 낙관론이 있지만, **그 성공으로 가는 길은 험난한 여정**으로 가득 차 있습니다.

애플의 미래 성장은 지정학적 문제를 극복하고 인텔리전스 기능을 강화하는 데 달려 있습니다.

There has been ongoing concern when it comes to Apple in China. Is that the key takeaway for you? Well, the key takeaway for me as someone who's optimistic that these Apple intelligence features are going to accelerate revenue growth, and I have much more ambitious expectations for the next year and two years. One of the big takeaways for me is the guidance kind of threw cold water on this 20% kind of outside hope that we'd start to see some better acceleration in the December quarter. As you mentioned, the low single-digit guide, the street was at 7%. So probably analysts are going to shake out somewhere between 5 to 6% similar growth rates we just saw in the September quarter. And so from my perspective, the big takeaway here is that the street was right, that this is going to take some time, a few quarters before we start to see this acceleration in growth. And I think the guidance just confirmed

that. And then just to dive into the China question, I previewed this and said they've got to they have to have China growth in the quarter. I think it was actually like up like 0.5%. I mean, it was fractional comps were really easy. They should have been up five, 6% or the street was out. So I think there's something else going on in China. Jeanne, it's a fair question of where that future growth will come from. Right. And that's great because we can talk about technology. You've been using Apple intelligence in its early form. And when you think about China, there was some evidence, albeit third party data evidence, that the consumer in China might be buying iPhone 16 in the hope that in the future the platform would be available there because, of course, it's not now, the regulator won't allow it. How would you modeling that? Well, the timing of when some first have

been using the features, and I would describe the features as nice to have but not need to have yet. I mean, they do a great job of consolidating my messages and notifications. I think that as far as kind of the, you know, how this plays out, the geographic piece is really important. It's just going to be additional English countries for the rest of this year. And so that's going to be like the UK, Canada, Australia. But then we still have this answer question about when does Europe start going? And then China, of course, it's probably they're going to have to do some sort of partnership with Baidu to get there. And so for this cycle to really be a super cycle, there's like these geopolitical things that need to fall into place. And ultimately, I believe that they will fall into place. I think Apple's got clout to make those things happen. And then additionally, even though I

describe the features as nice to have, not need to have. I just want to quickly frame in why I believe these will be need to have, starting kind of first quarter of next year, once they start integrating more of the functionality, but also open up more of this with developers. We get a gentle guy. There is optimism that, therefore, eventually that Apple intelligence will bear fruits. What is bearing fruits right here, right now, is the services side, but that's under duress from a regulatory perspective. If we're thinking about the App Store, for example, how do you think about regulation in. It's the Black Swan potential negative event here is that services growth at 12%, The shoes at 13, call it a wash. But no, I think that this came up on the Apple call last night. It came up on the Google call two nights ago. I think services continues to do well because their base keeps growing.

hitting record highs. But I think that, you know, there's still this piece out there, and I would put a low probability of ten, 15% that something happens between the relationship between Google and Apple on that, that the search placement deal with Safari, and that's probably 10 to 15% of their income. So I think that there's a, that's something else I'm focused on.

Apple’s Tepid Forecast, China Weakness Spark Concern

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애널리스트들은 전 분기와 비슷한 성장률을 예상하면서 애플의 매출 성장에 대한 기대치를 낮게 잡았습니다.

중국에서의 실적은 부진했으며, 성장률이 일부만 증가하여 향후 확장에 대한 우려가 제기되고 있습니다.

중국 소비자들이 현재의 규제 제한에도 불구하고 향후 플랫폼의 출시에 대한 기대감으로 iPhone 16을 구매하고 있다는 증거가 있습니다.

애플의 기능 확장과 지정학적 영향력

Apple의 기능은 현재는 있으면 좋지만 내년에는 기능이 향상되고 개발자와의 통합이 이루어지면서 필수 기능이 될 것으로 예상됩니다.

영어권 국가로의 확장이 진행 중이며, 향후 유럽과 중국에도 진출할 계획입니다.

Apple의 영향력은 성공적인 슈퍼 사이클을 위해 필요한 지정학적 변화를 헤쳐나가는 데 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 보이며, 비즈니스의 서비스 측면은 규제 문제에도 불구하고 계속 성장하고 있습니다.

Google과 Apple의 관계, 특히 Safari와의 검색 배치 계약은 Google의 수익에 잠재적인 위험 요소입니다.

이 계약은 Google 수익의 10~15%를 차지하는 것으로 추정됩니다.

발표자는 이 관계로 인한 영향에 대해 10~15%의 낮은 확률을 할당합니다.