Hello, viewers. This is Kim Joong-hak, a special correspondent for Hankyung Global Market in New York. Today, let's quickly take a look at the market for just 10 minutes. The three major indices started weakly in the early hours, but Apple was truly impressive. We might have been a bit reckless yesterday, but today, with Apple surging significantly, the Nasdaq turned positive, hitting a new high along with the S&P 500. The Nasdaq rose by 0.88% to 17,343, and the S&P 500 also increased by 0.27% to reach 5,375. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 0.31% to 38,747 as financial, Boeing, and pharmaceutical stocks weakened slightly. Amidst this, the 10-year Treasury yield plummeted by 7.1 basis points to 1.44%. On the other hand, the dollar index remains strong, rising by about 0.12% to 102.71, while the international vacation is up by 0.113%.

The price of gold per barrel is at $77 today, showing a slight increase of 0.28%. Silver is at $233 per ounce. Let's look at the reasons for the rise and fall. Even though the market rose today, the main reason for the increase is Apple. No one expected it to rise so much, jumping by 7%. Along with Microsoft, Google, and Meta reversing the trend, the Nasdaq showed significant strength today. Also, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped considerably today. I will talk about it in a moment, but the bond market was quite stable. On the other hand, there was a significant decline as most stocks, except for Apple, couldn't actually rise. Tomorrow, the uncertainty surrounding the FOMC meeting is approaching, and the CPI index is coming out, making it a very crucial day. The political uncertainty in Europe is strengthening the US dollar and pushing oil prices up.

Demand is expected to increase as we approach the summer, but there were quite a few negative factors in the market. Let's take a closer look at the stocks. Today, Apple rose by 7.26% as expected, although innovation was weak, the replacement demand was strong. I will show you more in a moment. Also, AMD Holdings rose by 2.87% due to expectations of increased demand for devices such as on-device Apple devices, smartphones, and iPads. Microsoft also rose by 1.1% as it showed great strength in open AI. Today, Upm Holdings surged by 11% with the announcement that Apple Pay will include a buy now, pay later option for loans. On the other hand, Intel moved quite a bit in the early trading session, but with expectations for the approval of Alchemist, it still ended up rising by 0.11%. Despite fluctuations, it closed higher. Alphabet also showed a slightly positive trend today. Evercore...

In the process of this artificial intelligence competition, as the evaluation confirmed the competitiveness and raised the goals, today, Oracle announced a performance increase of 0.88% a while ago. It is currently up by 9.38%. Oh, the performance was almost as bad as expected, but the expectations for Google and OpenAI are being heavily reflected in the market. Similar companies like Palantir and Scale AI rose by 2 to 3% during the day, and the inclusion of S&P continues for CrowdStrike. KKR increased by 2.69% and 1.17% respectively. There were quite a few declining stocks today, so Tesla did not perform well among tech stocks. J.B. Morgan lowered its investment rating, causing a 1.8% drop, and Paramount Global may proceed with the acquisition and merger of Skydance, as I mentioned before, leading to a drop of 7.85%. As for Boeing, as I mentioned yesterday, today...

There was a disappointing announcement of the Indian air volume, which dropped significantly by almost half, by 2.44%. Financial stock JP Morgan Max also dropped from 2% to 3%. Although NVIDIA performed quite well, it dropped by 0.72% today. Additionally, Super Micro Computers that supply servers also dropped by 2.45%. With the collapse of Bitcoin prices to $70,000, Coinbase and Robinhood couldn't avoid the downward trend today. Furthermore, CV Health, which plummeted yesterday, also dropped by 0.46% today. Bloomberg pointed out the risks of duplicate quantity recalls, causing a negative impact. Looking at the heatmap, today Apple shines alone in a day that is completely different from yesterday. If we look into details, Apple's growth is not based on expectations for artificial intelligence but ultimately on the explosive increase in demand for iPhone replacements.

Opinions are completely reversed towards having it. Oh, the wow effect on artificial intelligence was lacking, but it stimulated the replacement cycle. That's why the stock rose sharply, around 5% to 7%. If we revisit the contents from the World Developers Conference, work is now being done to integrate generative artificial intelligence, mainly based on GPT, to support writing, image generation, alarm summaries, and most other software functions. Looking at the Wall Street evaluations, due to the most differentiated digital assistant, Apple's position is strengthening, accelerating demand for iPhone upgrades. Morgan Stanley provided an optimistic evaluation, setting a target price of $216. Vancouver America also presented a very positive opinion, indicating the recovery of replacement cycles over several years, and showing growth potential in total revenue margins and service revenue.

I am offering $230 and Evercore ISI is offering $220. Artificial intelligence demand for the latest upgrades is increasing, and Wall Street is confident in Apple's AI strategy. As mentioned yesterday by Wedbush, they have repeatedly evaluated and set the highest target price at $275. Additionally, Bernstein and DA Davidson, who initially had more conservative opinions, have also adjusted their opinions upwards, leading to a turnaround in most of Wall Street's views. This could be the background for today's rise. On the other hand, Elon Musk is quite critical of Apple's collaboration with OpenAI. He stated that if Apple's operating system becomes integrated with AI, he will prohibit the use of iPhones in the office, which is a violation of complementary measures. There were comments through social media regarding this.

Within the company, these different media that are being traded will not be used in other parts, and eventually, in the process of using artificial intelligence, they cannot notify the risks. Apple warns that even though they are not creating artificial intelligence themselves, this data will eventually end up somewhere with unknown risks to user data. Elon Musk filed a lawsuit against Sam Altman in March, but for some reason, news just came out that the lawsuit has been dropped. In March, this lawsuit targeted Altman, saying that according to the contract made when the company was founded in 2015, the company that aims to contribute to the benefit of humanity is violating the trust obligation by seeking profit, yet Musk is the one who argues for monetization.

I did try to refute it, but eventually, today, I withdrew. It is quite well known as of now, so there is nothing special about it, but analysis that Elon Musk has benefited significantly from the advertising effect and promotional effect of XAI seems to be circulating. Meanwhile, OpenAI is actively moving towards commercialization. Although they deny the possibility of going public, they have newly hired a CFO. For the first time, a CFO has joined, and the person is Sarah Friar, who was the former CEO of Nextdoor and led Square as a CFO. With her, Kevin Whale, who was the Chief Product Officer at OpenAI, has also been appointed. With this, OpenAI aims to supply its products more easily to users and expand its business.

It seems that there will be more collaboration with companies. Oracle has revealed its strategy for future growth, emphasizing the enhancement of distributing OpenAI AI products safely. Today, Oracle's financial results were not very good. In the fourth quarter of the fiscal year, revenue was estimated at $14.29 billion, falling short of the expected $14.5 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were also lower than market expectations at $1.63. Although cloud service revenue increased by 99% compared to the previous year, it was still lower than the consensus. The cloud license revenue also decreased by 15% compared to the previous year. However, the current rise is attributed to the announcement of providing databases to Google Cloud starting in November. They also mentioned separately receiving the data transmission burden from corporate customers.

It's about making this workload available, and also, there was a partnership with OpenAI to provide additional computing capacity. Originally, because it received investments from Microsoft, OpenAI has been using Microsoft Azure a lot. However, as the path opens up to be able to use Oracle instead, Oracle's stock price is currently rising with such expectations. On the other hand, today's drop in Tesla was influenced by JP Morgan's report. It is expected that the upcoming RoboTaxi announcement scheduled for August 8th will unveil new apps and business models. While utility is expected compared to existing vehicles, concerns are raised that it may take several more years to create such a new model as RoboTaxis are specialized vehicles. Nevertheless, the next wave of growth is expected to be introduced in the low-cost model to be launched next year.

In the end, this low-cost model is said to have the potential to save costs and capital in the short term. It may be viewed positively in some ways. However, analyst Ryan Brinkman of JP Morgan concluded after talking to executives and IR team members that he has a very negative view with a sell recommendation and a target price of $115. Furthermore, looking at other stocks that have risen, it seems to ride on Apple Pay. For example, even though the firm's stock price has risen a lot recently, in the option of buying now and paying later, there is a 6-week social installment repayment option. By entering Apple Pay, you can also choose a long-term loan option for a year. According to Mizuho Securities' analysis, due to the firm's strong brand and sophisticated risk acquisition system, this Apple Pay is making a significant impact in the global payment market.

Despite being the largest company, a firm with an irreplicable business model ended up becoming a partner. General Electric is receiving praise for this. Today, they announced plans to repurchase their own shares worth more than 8 trillion won. They had previously announced a share buyback of $10 billion last year, which raised the stock price. This time, they plan to repurchase an additional $6 billion starting from the third quarter. The scale of shareholder returns is increasing significantly each year. In the midst of this, they also announced a task to enhance profitability by optimizing capital allocation based on internal institutions. Paul Jacobs, the Chief Financial Officer who presented these plans, slightly lowered the previous projection for electric cars from 200,000 to below 250,000 units, down from the earlier 200,000 to 300,000 units. Electric cars are slowly progressing, while internal combustion cars are doing well.

The strategy can be interpreted as aiming to monetize the large SUV Pro. Oh, Intel, which hasn't had a good stock price, has received another piece of bad news. They announced the suspension of the construction of a new chip plant in Israel worth $25 billion. There was an investment factory called Fab 38 in Israel, and this plan was expected to be completed by 2028 and start production from 2035, to somewhat respond to the geopolitical production line. However, it seems that they couldn't avoid the war and the uncertainty of the Israeli government. They received a $3.2 billion subsidy from Israel last December and are currently announcing that they will adjust this project according to the schedule. On the other hand, Warner Bros. has acquired the exclusive broadcasting rights for the French Open. Amid growing concerns that they might lose the exclusive broadcasting rights for the NBA recently, this deal.

To defend, they are putting a lot of emphasis on other sports broadcasts. Recently, a new star was born at the French Open, and it is said that Warner Bros. acquired the broadcasting rights for Roland Garros, a clay court tournament, for $65 million over 10 years. With 670,000 viewers, it is a very profitable event, but Warner Bros.'s stock price closed slightly down today. As for Boeing, as mentioned, the data for Korean Air's plane orders was not good. They could only deliver 24 commercial aircraft in May, which is less than half of the 50 from last year. The 787 series increased from 16 to 19 in April, but it was very weak compared to the 35 delivered last year. With a total of 10 orders, considering cancellations, they still lag behind with only 130 compared to competitors.

It's a situation where Airbus is falling behind. Additionally, there is more information about CVS E that CVS ES provides on its own. There are also drugs that are made like a kind of private brand product, which are supplied to pharmaceutical companies. In reality, when investigated, it was revealed that these drugs are made in pesticide manufacturing facilities or the water is slightly contaminated. When these issues are exposed later, they become recall issues, causing the stock price to be negatively affected. The currency market today has fallen below $70,000, affecting Bitcoin and Ethereum, both falling below $3,500. Time is a bit short. There was a report today. In the June monthly report, it still warns about oil demand and is forecasting. The average demand for this year is projected to be 2.25 million barrels per day. The demand for the second half of this year is also projected to be 2.3 million to 3 million barrels.

Because we are looking at it on average, stable momentum continues. In a way, this outlook is somewhat strengthened by the U.S. Energy Information Administration's outlook released today. They slightly raised the demand outlook by about 200,000 barrels to 1.1 million barrels compared to the previous outlook. Additionally, Goldman Sachs mentioned that due to the increased summer transportation demand, a 1.3 million barrel decrease in supply is expected in the third quarter. These factors collectively contribute to the current background of rising oil prices. Furthermore, with the International Energy Agency's outlook coming out tomorrow, it is expected that oil prices will be influenced by a comprehensive analysis of these factors. Also, tonight, China's inflation data will be released, which is causing traders to show little movement. On the other hand, the background for the decline in bond yields today is the results of the 10-year Treasury bond auction, which was very good. The winning bid.

With an interest rate of 4.43% and bids around 2.67%, it can be seen that there was a significant demand. Due to strong bids and high indirect bidding from foreign investors, this result led to a decline in international interest rates. On the other hand, with the approaching FOMC meeting in the US, it is necessary to check the outlook for interest rate cuts. There hasn't been a significant change in the forecast that has been fluctuating between September and November. Looking at the upcoming schedule for tomorrow, there are two important issues. First, the May Consumer Price Index will be released at 8:30 a.m., followed by the FOMC statement in the afternoon, and 30 minutes later, there will be a press conference by Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. In summary, let's organize some key points to watch. The May Consumer Price Index, a key indicator, is expected to decrease slightly by 0.3% compared to the previous month and 3.5% compared to the previous year.

We are looking forward to it, but uncertainties continue in various areas such as insurance and medical care. Due to the influence of the FOMC indicator on the Fed, there are concerns in the market. It is expected that the members will continue their discussions after checking this indicator just before the second day of the FOMC meeting. Also, the statement that will be released afterward is expected to be crucial as it contains economic projections. Initially, it was expected to be cut three times on the dot plot, but even if just two members change their minds, this forecast could disappear, and there are concerns in the market that there is a possibility it may not decrease at all. It is anticipated in the market that Powell's message tomorrow will not have a significant impact as expected. That's all for today's market review. Tomorrow will be very important. We will summarize the two issues just mentioned and come back to you. Thank you.

[오늘장 10분만-6월12일] 애플 7% 급등, 교체 수요 온다 | 머스크, 오픈AI 견제 | 입찰 후 국채금리 하락 | 오라클, 구글·오픈AI 후광 | OPEC 원유 수요 전망

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[오늘장 10분만-6월12일] 애플 7% 급등, 교체 수요 온다 | 머스크, 오픈AI 견제 | 입찰 후 국채금리 하락 | 오라클, 구글·오픈AI 후광 | OPEC 원유 수요 전망

[오늘장 10분만-6월12일] 애플 7% 급등, 교체 수요 온다 | 머스크, 오픈AI 견제 | 입찰 후 국채금리 하락 | 오라클, 구글·오픈AI 후광 | OPEC 원유 수요 전망

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