You're basically saying we can't determine now that this is anemic demand. It could be oversupply of the available handset. What's your thesis? So when you look at it, a few weeks ago, we heard that Apple was talking to its supplier to increase the shipments for this particular model by about 10%. So, you know, frankly speaking, that is lots of puts and takes at this point. We think it's still too early to basically call this a dud. So we're going to wait for another 30 days, 35 days. Here's some official comments from Apple when they actually announce their earnings to really figure out what shipments could be for the next financial year. Can you give us context as to how much you look at tax securities? How much does this sort of pre-order data tend to fluctuate with reality? You know, it does fluctuate. And, you know, this is where sometimes there are supply constraints, sometimes

there are spikes in demands in the earlier side of it, which is why I'm saying if you look at it for a 12-month cycle, you know, it could vary quite a bit before, I mean, seasonally fourth quarter is fourth or the December quarter is the big quarter for Apple. And this is where we could see some jump because of some improvement in China. On the other side, it could go the exact opposite way. If China is weak or consumer spending is not very good. So that is so much dependent on the next 30 to 90 days, more than just, you know, the first three days. Anorak away from the early preorder data for iPhone. Other analysts talk about China in the context of domestic competition. Now that you've seen what Huawei has to offer, how do you model that domestic competition in China? So I would say that if you look at it, there was a big spike in demand because while we are releasing its 5G phone now,

there has been many years since they didn't do that. And then because of that, there was a you could see a pull forward in demand for them off the normal refresh cycle for that particular brand. For Apple, Apple has to fight quite a bit now to gain market share, to gain in China. And I think we you know, if there are going to be any discounts from Apple anywhere in the world, we think it's going to be in China at this point. Now, the new phone that came out from Norway, the 20 $800 one, I don't think that does that damage to Apple's iPhone sales because it's two different categories, frankly. We're seeing weakness in suppliers to Apple as well on Iraq at the moment. What's the next data point? What's the next read we should focus on? I think when the company announces the results and then you will get some official comments as to how those pre-orders are, I think that's far more

important at this time. The second thing we want to see is when are the features coming out and what kind of budgets around it, because I think that can change consumer sentiment very quickly if there are cooler things that people can play with the phone and that can help drive some of the sales as well.

Apple Hit by iPhone 16 Gloom

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