Hello, I am writer Lee Hyun-woo. Right now, the real estate market is in a situation where the bubble needs to burst rather than decline. Only when the bubble bursts can we pass on a healthy country to our future generations. Currently, the economy of our country is completely collapsing due to the game of hot potato with real estate. Of course, the media still hasn't woken up and continues to talk about record highs. Fortunately, the market is now seeing a halt in loans and a rapid increase in the supply of apartments in Seoul. This can be viewed as a signal of the second normalization of real estate. So today, let's take a look at that situation. First of all, the supply of apartments in Seoul suddenly surged on September 4th and 5th. The graph you see shows the daily supply of apartments in Seoul. As you can see, it has suddenly skyrocketed. Until September 2nd, there were 79,000 listings.

On September 4th, the number of cases increased by about 3,000, reaching 82,000. It’s noticeable that there is a sharp rise in the numbers. This sudden reduction in loans has led to an influx of listings. Since September, the second phase of the DSR stress test has been implemented, and banks have announced that they would halt lending. Consequently, people have started to list their properties. In particular, the first-tier financial institutions simultaneously suggested limiting mortgage and lease loans. As people looked around and realized they might not be able to secure loans, more and more began to list their properties immediately. The market reacted so quickly that it seems the government is likely to introduce measures. The media is also discussing that one-homeowners should be allowed to take out lease loans and mortgage loans.

The rough lending regulations are raising concerns about the impact on genuine demand. An article has been published regarding this issue. Director Kim Kang also made a statement saying that while speculative demand needs to be managed, there should be no restrictions on genuine demand. Currently, with the lending cliff causing panic among people, they are throwing their properties onto the market. It seems like there will be some schemes introduced to stabilize the situation. Until now, the government has implemented many policies that support speculators, so it seems likely that something will come up again this time as well. However, the first financial sector has already been blocked, and it seems that people will move to the second financial sector. Yet, any schemes introduced this time will completely end by July next year, because the stress DSR will apply to all financial sectors, including mortgage loans, credit loans, and all other loans. Therefore, the increase in available properties is inevitable.

As I looked into Seoul, I also examined whether there has been a significant increase in real estate listings in other regions. I found something quite interesting. The narrative that real estate prices are rising primarily pertains to Seoul. Other areas have not been significantly affected. As expected, the current listings show that they are accumulating and not being absorbed, creating a backlog. In Gyeonggi Province, there are about 150,000 listings that fluctuate within that range. In Incheon, the number of listings is around 33,000 to 34,000, also fluctuating within that range. It is accurate to say that the inventory is not being absorbed. In contrast, cities like Busan and Daegu are showing a different trend. If you look at the graph on the left for Busan, you can see that the peak continues to rise. Although it is not increasing sharply at once, it is gradually climbing in a stepwise fashion.

The interesting thing is that properties in Daegu are currently being absorbed. In April 2024, there were 41,000 listings, which peaked, but now it has decreased to around 39,000 to 38,000. You might think that this means the Daegu real estate market is recovering and improving, but that's not the case at all. The reason for the decrease in listings is that discounted sale prices have dropped. There are currently issues in Daegu where discounted sales are being blocked, preventing people from moving into apartments. Recently, when discussing Shinsegae Construction, I mentioned that the sale of the Billiv Heritage in Daegu's Suseong District was less than 20%, and it has now gone to public auction. Because it has moved to auction, properties are reportedly being traded at a lower price, around 300 to 400 million won less. As a result, people who had previously purchased units are putting up barbed wire to keep out those who received the discounted sales, and there are banners about provisional seizure.

There is a threat that the mid-term loan will not be available. Additionally, as another apartment complex is offering discounted sales, it is reported that 60 residents went to the headquarters of Hoban Industries to protest. They demanded that the same benefits be applied retroactively. 

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The real estate situation is not improving, leading to a decrease in available properties; rather, it is the falling prices that are causing this decline. This is a completely normal normalization of the real estate market occurring in Daegu. Now, what about other regions like Busan, Gyeonggi, Incheon, and Seoul? Since prices are not normalizing there, the inventory remains intact. Those who want to sell are trying to sell at high prices, but buyers have no intention of purchasing at those prices. This is why transactions are not happening, leading to the current situation. 

However, what is happening in Daegu? The market is shifting to one where buyers have the upper hand, and prices are decreasing. This phenomenon observed in Daegu will eventually spread nationwide. It’s a very natural principle. As inventory continues to increase, eventually someone will either withdraw from the market or turn to auctions.

The prices are bound to decrease, either through public sales or discounted allocations. In the case of Gangnam, Seoul, when we look at the statistics on when people bought apartments and at what prices, we find that most of them purchased before 2020, when prices were at their peak. There aren't many who bought during that high price period. This means that even if they sell now, they are not necessarily at a loss. The most important thing is that the longer they wait to sell, the more likely it is that the situation will resemble that of Daegu. However, people are still holding on. They have already experienced high prices, so they feel that selling now might result in some loss. This sentiment is reflected in the increasing number of listings, but they are not being absorbed.

Such situations arise when people buy stocks at 1,000 won, and they go up to 5,000 won but are now down to 3,000 won. The majority of people are unable to sell, thinking back to the 5,000 won price. If it later drops back to 1,000 won or even 800 won, that will truly be a critical moment for them. When I mention this, some people say that holding on until the end is the solution. However, if we look at Daegu, who has won? The sellers have lost. In Gangnam, Seoul, it will take time, but eventually, prices will collapse. 

To summarize today's video, we are seeing a halt in loans for apartments in Seoul and a rapid increase in listings. It seems that first-tier financial institutions are really tightening up on loans. They are stating that they won't provide loans for jeonse (lease) or mortgage loans, which has led people to start calling around to banks.

I visited and realized that I really can't find any money; now it's a big problem. Therefore, the number of properties being thrown into the market is rapidly increasing. In a way, this is a panic sell-off. Of course, it seems that the government will come up with some measures. The media is also in a state of alarm, and it seems that the government will have some tricks up its sleeve in response. However, even if these tricks are implemented, by July of next year, there will be a situation where no tricks can be used at all; it will be a completely tight situation. Once the stress DSR (Debt Service Ratio) level 3 is introduced, I believe it will trigger a rapid normalization of real estate prices. I also looked at properties in other regions, and there weren't any significant changes like in Seoul. However, there was a peculiar phenomenon where the number of properties in Daegu was decreasing. So, does this mean that the situation in Daegu is improving? Upon closer inspection, that is not the case; the prices are just...

Due to the price decrease, transactions are occurring to some extent. There are discounts and disputes, and it's quite chaotic right now. This lower price is allowing some inventory to be cleared. Ultimately, as inventory increases, buyers are gaining more power in the market. This trend will surely spread to other regions as well. Now, I will conclude today's video here. Please make sure to subscribe and like. Thank you.

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