한국 고층 아파트 재건축의 도전 과제

부동산 전문가가 아파트 재건축 문제와 투자에 대해 조언하며 재정적 신중함과 글로벌 시장에 대한 인식을 강조합니다.

### 아파트 재건축 및 부동산 투자에 영향을 미치는 요인
* 🏗 ️ 여의도 육산빌딩과 같은 고층 건물의 내진 설계는 **고급 자재를 사용**하기 때문에 상당한 공사비가 소요됩니다.
* 💸 고층 아파트의 재건축은 비용이 많이 들며, **공동 비용이 집 한 채 가격에 육박**하는 경우가 많아 주민들이 감당하기 어려운 경우가 많습니다.
* 📉 아파트가 노후화되고 노후화되면 **아파트의 가치와 거주성이 떨어지고, 부유한 거주자는 떠나고 저소득층이 입주하는** 순환이 반복됩니다.
* 🏘 분당과 같이 **용적률이 높고 재건축에 대한 인센티브**가 제공되는 지역에서는 재개발을 진행할 수 있습니다.
* 💰 아파트 재건축은 **재정적 부담을 감당**할 수 있는 능력이 중요한 요소이며, 부동산 투자 시 **경제성을 고려**할 필요가 있습니다.
* 🔄 국내는 물론 전 세계 부동산 시장은 다양한 경제 및 정책적 요인에 영향을 받기 때문에 **투자 결정을 내릴 때는 종합적인 시각**을 갖는 것이 중요합니다.
* 📈 인구의 상당수가 주택을 투자로 인식하는 한국에서는 **투자 수요와 실제 주택 수요 사이에 불균형**이 존재합니다.
* 🏠 집을 소유하는 것은 생활의 안정과 보안을 제공하며, **자신의 재정적 능력 내에서 집을 구입하는 것**이 좋습니다.
* 🔄 부동산 시장은 주기적이며 약 10년에 한 번씩 기회가 오기 때문에 **서두르지 말고 신중하게 투자**하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 👑 '로열층'이나 '로열 평수'와 같은 요소는 전통적으로 아파트 평가에서 중요한 요소로 여겨져 왔지만, **시대와 개인의 상황에 따라 선호도가 달라질 수 있습니다.**

Apartments are now being rebuilt, right? In the past, when they used to build 5-story buildings, it was fine. But now, with 20 or 30-story buildings, they are not built sturdy. There is the Yooksan Building in Yeouido. If something were to happen in Yeouido, it would be fine, but in the event of an earthquake, where do you think would collapse? When a strong earthquake hits, all the apartments collapse, but the Yooksan Building survives without collapsing. Why does this phenomenon occur? The Yooksan Building was built sturdy for high-rise construction, so it has seismic design. It is designed to withstand the longest period. That's why. Oh, that's why. However, because of that, it's inevitable to use high-quality materials, so the construction cost is very high. Then why does it become like that? Later on, when they built high-rise apartments, they built 50 or 60 floors. After building the apartments, if they want to rebuild them again, what should they do?

It's not just a matter of a few pennies. If you rebuild a 20-story building, the shared expenses will be quite high. People say it costs almost as much as the price of a house. If you build an ultra-high-rise building, only those with significant financial resources can live there. When it reaches that level, if you decide to rebuild later, you can't just add 60 or 120 more floors. You will have to rebuild it one by one, almost costing as much as the house itself. If you can afford that, it's fine. But if the residents cannot afford it, they will oppose the reconstruction. Who would want to pay as much as the house price for that? Then, there will be no maintenance or repairs, and it will keep deteriorating. In the end, the wealthy residents who can afford it will leave.

People with lower economic ability will start coming in after that, because it will be cheaper. That's how Seol (Lunar New Year) is becoming a difficult time for people to live. So, in the end, it's a matter of affordability. Even if you have the ability to afford it, you can't just add more floors no matter how high the floor is. In Bundang, now, the redevelopment is going well, so if you move in, within 10 years, they say they will build another 30, 40, or even over 50 floors there. Then, they put up 40 or 50 floors, but if it later becomes insolvent and needs to be redeveloped again, it will be difficult to increase the floor area ratio at that time. So, in the case of one-to-one redevelopment, a new one was built in Bundang, which is 50 pyeong, but if it is redeveloped one-to-one, you have to pay much more money, not 1 billion won. If the floor area ratio is not increased, if the government still decides to give a lot of floor area ratio in the future.

I can let you build up to 100 floors. Then, you can pay a very small amount of the division fee and also build, right? In fact, it's difficult to do that. Then, you rebuild a 50-story apartment, and another 30 to 40 years have passed. Then you have to pay almost as much money as the house price for the reconstruction. So, in the case of one-to-one reconstruction, there will be no one to pay. Unless there are huge objections, about 1 billion won can be easily paid by those who live in high-rise apartments. But if you don't have the ability to pay for it, what happens? Buildings will gradually deteriorate, only people without the ability will remain, and apartment prices will continue to plummet. And later, it also contains physical content. If it gets to the point where it collapses over time, for example, if you have 30 pyeong in Bundang now, it will be about 14 to 15 pyeong.

The pig's share, but now, if the reconstruction increases the floor area ratio to nearly double, you will receive about 17 pyeong. In that case, you never know when the building will collapse. The term physical content refers to the period until it collapses, so it could be 100 years. After it collapses, many people will only have 17 pyeong of land, without a building. Their assets will be, well, those 17 pyeong. So, if those many people want to build a building on those 17 pyeong, they can't. That's why it becomes slow. The more you try to rebuild, if you can't afford it, your property will disappear. I have clients who are considering reconstruction, and I also have close acquaintances. There is a very nice apartment complex by the Han River in Gangnam, which is about 40 years old and now in the process of reconstruction. The age group is now in their mid-80s.

He's a newcomer, but he's adamantly against redevelopment. He said, Even if I die, I'm against it. They're asking for nearly 1 billion won. He's interpreting that he's living on a pension now since he's retired. How can he come up with 1 billion won? That area is now under rapid integration planning. Seoul Metropolitan Government is planning to develop the entire area at once, which will involve over 6,000 households. There are people living there who have a lot of assets, but there are also those living on pensions due to retirement. So, how can those people afford to pay? Even if only redevelopment is allowed, if residents are asked to pay a large share, it won't work. When residents demand this, new high-rise apartments come up again. If such apartments are built in such a prime location, people won't have a place to live. The priority there is the quality of life. Moreover, someone from Bundang contacted me ages ago.

I have been evaluating for about two years now, and through that, I directly evaluated the emotions of the people I met 30 years ago when I appraised back then in Bundang New Town. There are still people I met back then who are alive. However, one of them came to me asking how much the shared cost would be as the reconstruction is now starting. So, I didn't know either. Later, the construction company needs to calculate and inform us about the shared cost. In reality, when the construction company calculates the shared cost, they don't provide specific details. So, they just tell you how much to pay in the dark. If they say that, you have no choice but to pay. Personally, I wish they wouldn't do the reconstruction. Even though animals used to come out in the past, now everything has been repaired, and no animals come out anymore. Living as it is now is very comfortable and good, so why do we have to go through this again? Even if they oppose it, they can't pay even 1 won of the shared cost, saying they have no money.

Yes, because I am a person living on a pension, how much does the current contribution amount to when based on 24 years? Normally, in the case of contributions, it's around 500 million won. This is also an estimated condition. At first, construction companies sweet-talk a lot to residents to get the construction project. They talk about the contribution amount very minimally. As time goes by, it changes. They say the construction cost is higher, so the contribution amount keeps increasing. So, when the construction company first gets the project, they are considerate to the residents, but once they get it, they become the stronger party. Then, the residents will not file a lawsuit. Did you break the promise? If so, it's hard for the residents to win. It's difficult to win in a lawsuit, and the longer it drags on, the more interest burden the residents have to bear. So,

Because only residents are at a loss, they have no choice but to raise the shared expenses. Such situations have been occurring recently in several apartments in Seoul. I'm curious about how much it used to be in the past. In the past, what was the level of the shared expenses? There were only 5-story apartments in the past. In South Korea, the first apartments were built in 1958 in Jongam-dong. At that time, the apartments were only 5 stories high. However, at that time, the floor area ratio was not 100%. But as new buildings were constructed, they could build 20 to 25-story apartments from the original 5-story ones. Then, a lot of general shared expenses occurred. So, those who were living there did not have to pay shared expenses. For example, someone living in a 13-pyeong apartment would receive a 30-pyeong apartment and even get more money. General shared expenses occurred a lot.

When someone who used to live in a 5-story building moves to a 20 to 25-story building, they become a general manager. When there are many general managers, there are many ordinary allocations, which are all accounted for by the owners' income. They move to larger units, get their money back, and it becomes this kind of form. However, now the floor area ratio is close to 200%. It will exceed 180% in Bundang. In a situation where the floor area ratio is like that, it will reach a point where it's impossible to pay the shared fees. No matter how much incentive is given for the floor area ratio, if the incentive is not given, you have to pay more than 1 billion won. But now the government is giving incentives. If you do a one-to-one reconstruction with the floor area ratio incentive, you can't do the reconstruction at all. It costs too much money, so the government provides incentives, improves the air, and supports a lot. Therefore, now

It can be done practically, but the estimated shared cost is expected to be around 4.5 billion won now. This needs to be clarified later. I don't know right now, let's estimate. On average, it's estimated to be around 400 to 500 million won, but it could be around 200 to 300 million won. But now, you have to see this. In Korea, when a construction company builds an apartment, they have to pay around 1 billion won to the Seoul city government. That's for the building division, so that the apartment can be built sturdily. However, if you don't pay that money, then reconstruction cannot happen. The residents will all oppose it. So, to reduce construction costs a bit and make it cheaper, the construction may become substandard. Construction companies are not charity work; they are profit-driven businesses. Therefore, they carry out construction according to the cost. But if you want it to be sturdy, a huge amount of money needs to be invested. It's quite shocking and there are some shocking stories.

Many people said that during the explanation meeting, the land development fee was explained like this, but later on, the land development fee increased tremendously in Seoul. In actual cases, in 1989, when Bundang was being developed as a new city, it was a public development. Even if you don't like it, the government forcibly acquires apartments. However, now, redevelopment is different. It is built with the agreement of the residents. If there is no agreement on redevelopment, it cannot be done. It cannot be forced. If the land development fee is excessively high, there will be many more residents opposing it. People who can afford to put 1 billion won in their bank accounts may be fine, but those who cannot will naturally oppose it. They say they will give benefits, but later on, when they ask for a large land development fee, it's okay if housing prices skyrocket. Even if the housing prices double or triple, they can still pay the land development fee.

Because there is a profit, it's okay. But the future housing prices are uncertain. In a way, isn't it the issue of affordability that determines everything, as you mentioned before? Affordability. In the past, when passing by those tall buildings, like 40 or 50 stories high, I used to feel so envious, thinking I wanted to live there. But wait a minute. Then, my friends, after 30 or 40 years, of course, the apartments will transform into something new and more stylish after 40 years. It's not just a simple step-by-step change. Now, the population will definitely decrease, and there are issues with maintenance fees, and since the land area will inevitably decrease, looking at various factors, when you think about it, the future of these current 40 or 50-story high-rise apartments is somewhat predetermined after about 30 to 40 years, right? It's predetermined.

There is an 85-story apartment building. Now they call it a condo, and the penthouse costs over 1 trillion won. The apartments in the complex are around 300 to 400 billion won. If you ask who lives there, it's people who wouldn't be affected even if all the apartments disappeared. And the amount of money going in there is enormous. With maintenance fees and taxes, about 1 billion won goes in every month. So, if someone can't afford 1 billion won a month, they can't buy it at all. I heard from a real estate agent there that if people with around 450 billion won in assets come in, it clouds the water. So, why does the water get cloudy? If those people come in, later they have to pay about 10 billion won for repairs. But they shouldn't have any burden. It's a top-class apartment, so you shouldn't have any issues with that. You can pay as much money as you want. This is an extreme case.

I talked about the rich, but even if it's a super high-rise, if the capacity to handle it is the same as I mentioned earlier, a person with about 3 to 4 billion won shouldn't go in there and be treated like that. It's unbearable. It becomes slow. You explained using the U.S. as an example, but apartments in the U.S. continue to increase in value from birth, and those that don't are too distinct. As this difference becomes more pronounced, the downsides become deeper. So now, in places like the U.S., the richest people live in single houses, then the next richest live in villas, and then ordinary people usually live in apartments. Or like I mentioned before, in super high-rise apartments, which are where the wealthiest live, it's separated. The housing culture in the U.S. is like that. But in our country, it's different. Apartments are the best. In the past, they were redeveloped and reconstructed.

I proceed, thinking that I can earn a little more money. The value of this apartment has increased, so even in the billions, there are very clear and extreme cases where a lot of money was made. In the past, if you only did reconstruction, you made money, right? But now, can we just think that it is difficult to expect such a phenomenon? Yes, almost none. There are a few places left, but if the floor area ratio exceeds 200%, it is difficult to reconstruct without paying a huge reconstruction fee. Bundang will probably be 188%, and in new cities, it won't exceed 200%. And there are apartments in Mok-dong, right? There is a possibility of Mok-dong apartments because they are not over 200%. Mok-dong apartments were first built in 1985, but they were not sold at that time. The reason they were not sold is this, at that time, they were the latest style.

I lost. In Mok-dong apartment, the living room was very spacious, with three rooms, each about 30 to 40 square meters. Next, there were two bathrooms. Previously, because people preferred small rooms due to the large family system, they prioritized rooms over the living room. There was one bathroom, but some people asked, Does the apartment have two bathrooms? Since the living room was too spacious, they should have made more rooms, so it was left incomplete. They did not prefer it. Later in Mok-dong, it became a trend. So trends can continue to change in the future. When you hear such stories, it feels like something is being depreciated, like when you buy a car. Even apartments give you this feeling. Yes, buildings depreciate. It's just that it doesn't happen as quickly as with cars; it happens gradually. Our human lifespan is not that long, so we

Humans can also feel to the extent that they can't feel well, so we don't know what our descendants will feel when they go to us. For example, if an announcer says, I just built a 50-story apartment building in Bundang, and doesn't sell it halfway, but passes it on to my children and grandchildren later, those grandchildren will curse, saying, Grandpa left me this old and huge pile of garbage that I have to bear a tremendous maintenance fee for. Our grandmother and grandfather will say, 'Hey, this maintenance fee is enormously high, but we can't even throw it away. Why did you pass this on to me?' That's why this is gentrification. And buildings are depreciated, but people don't know because it happens late. But later, descendants will say, 'They passed on this concrete block to me. This is worthless.'

You can see that depreciation is an asset, and just like people die when they are born, buildings eventually collapse. To prevent them from collapsing, you have to keep maintaining them. In fact, as I have been talking with Professor Park until now, if I were to buy an apartment, I would consider factors like the location, the number of households, and other criteria. Now, considering factors like floor area ratio should be included. It would be helpful if you could point out some apartments that should be avoided, saying, If you want to buy a house, it would be nice to have these criteria in mind. In the past, many people preferred misunderstood apartments because of expectations for reconstruction, but in the future, new apartments will naturally be more expensive than big, old apartments. Buying an apartment now is for convenience, preferably a new one.

It's not good to move in right after construction. I lived in the apartment right after it was built, and for a year, I felt dizzy. There are smells coming from the apartment, like bond or adhesive smells. So, it's much better to move in after about 4 or 5 years. But the most important thing here is the ability to handle it. In the end, even for those who receive a monthly salary, thinking, I should buy an apartment in Gangnam, right after starting to receive a salary is not right. You need to steadily build up seed money and act according to your own abilities. Just getting into a high-rise apartment by taking on a lot of debt and going up to the 40th or 50th floor with a good view doesn't make you wealthy. It's because of depreciation in the end. So, I think the criteria for looking at houses may have changed a bit.

I'm a royal but just because it's a high-rise building, it doesn't mean everything is good. Oh, wait a minute, how will the child's 30 years turn out? It makes you think even about such places. But you shouldn't think too much. You should think moderately. If you think too much, your head will hurt. These days, there are many people without children. They might just think, Why aren't these kids ours? But when we have children, we need to think about such things. If you want to avoid regrets later, you should look at real estate for almost 40 years. Professor, you also participated in the appraisal of the Ilgishin New City development in the 1990s. The reconstruction project of Ilgishin New City will start in 2027. They say that Ilsan New City is selecting the leading district until November. Since they cannot do the reconstruction all at once, they are first selecting the leading district.

Residents have a very high agreement rate now to designate a leading district. If it is not designated this time, another 20 years will pass, and if a mistake is made and reconstruction is carried out in the leading district, the houses that should not be included in the leading district will face problems when reconstruction takes place 30 years later. Reconstruction is not just about following a schedule. The government says it will happen quickly, but so far, only an announcement has been made. Besides the announcement, nothing has been done yet. Once the leading district is specifically determined, a construction company will be selected, and then the conditions for reaching an agreement among the residents must be met. In any case, if more than 75% of the residents do not agree, reconstruction is not possible. Therefore, for things to proceed according to the timeline, residents' understanding is crucial.

The relationship has to be right. If it's not right, the reconstruction could take much longer, and if the pulling per minute increases, the period could also be extended. So, it will never go according to the current timetable. Of course, if everything goes smoothly, it will be done in 10 years. Currently, Bundang is 8.5, Ilsan is 6,000, and Pyeongchon, Jungdong, and Bomi are 4.5, 26.5, and now it can be extended up to 39,000. Now, what we are doing now is taking the lead directly. However, the selection of the leading area is done in November. The real problem is that there are many obstacles after the leading area is selected. Ultimately, it's about money. Money becomes an obstacle, so from then on, it's uncertain whether support will be provided or the project will be completely abandoned. In Seoul, one district has been forming a committee for redevelopment for over 20 years. So, redevelopment is always.

Because the residents need to reach a consensus, they all differ. In the beginning, there are people who bought it for 500 million won, some for 1 billion won, and others for 2 billion won. The investment amounts are all different, and the understanding among them is all different. Furthermore, there are commercial buildings, which become a significant obstacle. In Seoul, construction is delayed due to this kind of situation. Many issues have not surfaced yet. So, what are the criteria for selecting a leading district? For example, the higher the residents' approval rate, the more points are given. Of course, it is natural that a high approval rate from residents should be given more points because if residents oppose later in the process, the redevelopment cannot proceed. Then, can the leading districts like Bundang, Ilsan, and Pyeongchon start construction in earnest? It could start. When the residents are united and there are no obstacles at all.

It could happen, but the likelihood is quite low. You've already seen too many redevelopment situations. Whenever there is even a slight difference of opinion among residents, it inevitably leads to delays. Also, the current head of the association cannot act as they please. If the head of the association reaches an agreement with the construction company, it must be put to a vote by the residents. The head of the association cannot act unilaterally. So, if it goes to a resident vote and there is opposition, negotiations have to start again. 30 years ago, during the first new city development, it was done through forced acquisition by the government due to public development. That's why it was done quickly. Now it's strictly private development. I wonder realistically if redevelopment in these areas is possible only through agreement among residents. I'm curious about what the area will look like after redevelopment. The current atmosphere on-site seems a bit uncertain.

Residents are also less likely to move out. Within 10 years, they move into new homes. It's a situation where the older brother is drawing a picture right now. When people have the highest expectations, that's when housing prices are the highest. It's the same now as it was in the past. Once you start, what happens? That's when problems usually arise, not just any problems, serious problems start to appear. To return to normal, it becomes very difficult. I read a newspaper article saying that apartment prices in Bundang New Town are rising. In reality, there will be people coming to buy and also investment demand. However, in our country, when we calculate the rising housing prices, some use the appraisal standard, while others use the actual transaction standard. Mostly it's based on the appraisal standard. If it were a country like the United States where actual transaction prices are fully disclosed, it would be understandable, but our country doesn't do that. They just pick a few points and say it went up or down.

I don't consider the actual transaction price as a normal market price. In order to become a normal market price, a certain period of time needs to pass, transactions need to take place to some extent, and actual transaction prices need to be captured. In our country, there are many cases where the estimated actual transaction price is based on bid standards. Articles saying that prices are going up are not common, and articles saying that prices are going down are not released often. Articles about price increases are highlighted more, so isn't this too much of an exaggeration? Recently, a post came up on a bulletin board, suggesting that we should fact-check with you, Dr. Park. Shall we take a look at the community post together? It says a list of apartments eligible for future reconstruction has been posted, with the top priority conditions being over 500 units, over 40 years old, a floor area ratio of less than 150%, and a building coverage ratio of less than 20%. So, based on these conditions, this and that.

These apartments are fine. Is this a bit of a fact? Well done. The floor area ratio is the ratio of the total floor area of a building to the land area. The higher the floor area ratio, the higher the building capacity. If the floor area ratio of a 100-pyeong apartment is 200%, then it can accommodate 200 pyeong. But what about a 50-pyeong apartment? It can go up to four floors. Half of the 50 pyeong will be left empty. Now, the site occupancy ratio means the ratio of the building area to the land area. So, if the site occupancy ratio is 50%, then building 50 pyeong on a 100-pyeong land is the site occupancy ratio. More than 500 households, of course, over 40 years, should be possible for construction. If the floor area ratio is less than 150%, the shared cost is minimized. I mentioned earlier that it would be difficult if it exceeds 200%, but if it's 150%, it's very...

It's good, right? In the past, when you had a 5,000 won apartment, the floor area ratio was 80% to 100%. Then, it was a huge profit, right? So, if it's around 150%, it's considered good. But if it reaches 200%, you have to pay a certain amount of development fee, and you can still proceed that way. However, if the floor area ratio exceeds 200%, it becomes difficult. It's not easy, right? Because now, you just need to pay a lot of money. So, the person who posted the calculation now has listed the candidate sites. In addition to this, in the future, not only can you profit from reconstruction, but reconstruction itself is difficult. It is written firmly that it may not go well in the future. Also, in Seoul, the Han River belt is cut, and in Gwacheon, the combination of high development fees cannot be borne. Our professor emphasized the ability to bear the burden, even mentioning the ability to bear the burden in the comments. However, some say that if you just have a lot of money, you can do it. But now, the ability to bear the burden is not enough, so reconstruction is...

It means that it can't be done. It has that meaning. It mentions Apgujeong. In the case of Apgujeong apartments, the floor area ratio is very high, so now they are saying they will redevelop it. In such cases, the shared payment might not be less than 1 billion won, probably. Of course, it's not confirmed. So, if it's difficult to build or after it's built, there is a situation where things might get worse. There are areas where such risks are expected, or conversely, there are places that are okay. It would be good to touch upon these things once. There should be some criteria for distinguishing them. In Seoul, there are central areas. The property prices in central areas don't drop much, but the outskirts inevitably have to drop a lot. In the future, as the population decreases and moves out to the outskirts, eventually even the central areas will have to drop. The surrounding areas are all forests, so only the heights can go up, right? It can't be done.

Looking at the current trend of the declining population, in the future, in about 50 years, only Seoul will remain, and there will be a lot of forests everywhere else. As the population decreases, more and more people will flock to Seoul. Therefore, the housing prices in Seoul can only continue to rise. For example, in rural areas, the population keeps decreasing, and only a few people are left. Let's say there are only three people left in a village, and before they turn five years old, they move to Seoul. So, as the population decreases in rural areas, they have no choice but to move up to Seoul. Even if there are vacant houses in rural areas, how can I live there? However, when you look at the rural areas now, many are tearing down old apartments. Who will live in those old apartments in the rural areas? So, when we look at Seoul and the rural areas, the reason why housing prices in Seoul keep rising is because people from rural areas are moving to Seoul and I saw in the newspaper.

Ttottora, saying things that don't make sense, Ttottora, wealthy people in the provinces come to Seoul to buy houses, which keeps driving up property prices in Seoul. At first, the prices go up, but as time passes, the center can only fall. You can't survive when everything around you is dying. The situation in Seoul, Gyeonggi Province, and new cities is completely different. In places like homes, apartments are now half the price. Look at Jeju Island; because there are no presales, newly built houses remain unsold for years and are left abandoned. So, excluding Seoul, there will be many such phenomena in other areas in the future. Listening to today's remarks, many people probably thought that it was just a good thing to rebuild, right?

I shouldn't think like that now. I think about it. In fact, about 30 years ago, when Ilsan was developed, you directly evaluated emotions. At that time, was there as much interest in new cities and developments as there is now? It was shocking back then. It was in the headlines of newspapers. When I saw something about Ilsan development somewhere, it said it was right below Seoul. So, since 1989, we started evaluating emotions, and I also participated. At that time, the emotional evaluation amount was around 100,000 to 200,000 KRW per square meter. Back then, Bundang was just a field. It was a green belt, and it was the same as an area where nothing could be done. Only houses that met the standards could be repaired and lived in. In Bundang back then, about 5 million pyeong were evaluated, which was about 5 million pyeong. At that time, it was a forced acquisition method, so the evaluated amount was given to the residents, and the land was forcibly taken away.

The method of acceptance, so the emotional evaluation really interfered a lot. When residents evaluate emotions, they think they will lose their land if they cry, so residents now feel deprived and are unable to do anything, being tied up in regulated areas by the government, who then buy the land and build apartments. Then residents feel devastated. Oh, the market price at that time was not the evaluated amount, that's right. But how do the residents feel? They might think they are being robbed through emphasis on apartments and raising land prices by millions of won. So, the residents' resistance was very strong. Occupying highways, demolishing houses, and forcibly pushing people out. So, the resistance was too strong. But when you meet individuals, they are very innocent.

It's true that farmers, through YouTube or interviews on broadcasts, express their opinions on real estate, not just positive ones but also sharing necessary information. It might have been difficult for them to only hear positive comments. There are many who speak negatively, saying things like, You, as a privileged person, why are you talking about real estate collapsing or crashing? I speak as a real estate expert based on facts, not influenced by personal relationships. Whether you receive criticism or not, real estate YouTubers are doing a great job. However, occasionally, I have seen a few who represent the perspective of construction companies or certain factions.

Oh, one could be swayed by hearing such words. That's why, as a real estate expert, it might be good to tell it as it is. Listening to YouTube and investing according to that, and suffering losses, solely relying on YouTube is not advisable. The judgment is up to oneself. Among the many things said on YouTube, if there is just one word that benefits me, then watching that YouTube video is a success. So, don't believe everything. I am the same. I have to accept what I choose among the things I say. Thinking that what YouTube says is the truth is not right. Having observed the trends in the real estate market for nearly 40 years, it is said that there are complexes in Gangnam and other areas that have now surpassed their previous highs and are rising. Real estate always has cycles, and opportunities come around once every ten years without fail. In 2022, home prices are expected to rise by about 30%.

It dropped. Gangnam, too, now that it's not recovering, it should drop more to match the cycle, but it's not dropping, and recovery is taking place. When it dropped back then, the bubble should have been let out more quickly, but now it's recovering too fast. If it recovers too quickly, what phenomenon will occur? A phenomenon of a significant drop will occur again. So, if this cycle rapidly goes up and rapidly goes down, this should not happen. If it goes up quickly, it will drop quickly, and if it drops quickly, it will go up quickly again. This is why the current cycle is crumbling due to the pandemic. When we analyze apartments, we shouldn't only look at our country but also consider external circumstances. We always need to keep an eye on the global market environment.

In our country, it's impossible to read a book about real estate even after looking at it a hundred times. The media keeps broadcasting things like it went up by 0.01%, it went down by 0.01%. What kind of nonsense is this? It's okay to go up and down after a certain period of time has passed and transactions have accumulated normally for a few months. But reporting on a subjective basis by 0.01% seems to be for the purpose of inflating housing prices. I have doubts about why the media would want to inflate housing prices. So, every time the administration changes, I can't say which administration did well or poorly in real estate policies because they all seem to be failing in their policies. For example, the previous administration caused real estate prices to skyrocket, creating a bubble. Worried that the bubble might burst when the administration changes, they are implementing all sorts of policies. So, all of them...

It's not for the common people, but one side is causing a real estate boom, and the other is worried that the bubble might burst, so they are releasing all sorts of policy examples and spending money. Of course, it's the same in the U.S. and in Korea, but I think it brings tremendous losses to our common people. Those who live on a salary find it difficult to buy a house. I don't think it should be like that. [MUSIC] First of all, a house where people live should not be considered as an investment, but people see it as an investment. When you look at housing and apartments in Korea, it's a mistake. The investment demand is about 30 to 40% more than the actual demand. So, even though there are about 1.3 million millionaires in Korea, there are about 4 million housing units in Seoul alone. If you include the metropolitan area, it's close to 10 million won. Nevertheless, apartment prices continue to rise because one person buys multiple units, puts them up for rent, and engages in gap investments.

And now, if only the investment demand disappears, this housing shortage like the current one won't worsen. However, now, for example, countries that view housing as investment demand are facing difficulties. Japan, for instance, when housing prices skyrocketed, they gave over 100% loans. What happened in Japan? The housing prices stopped rising, people had no intention to buy houses, because young people know that houses are not profitable. Even China, without asking Korea's opinion on housing, is experiencing a drastic change in investment demand. The real estate market in China has collapsed. There are many vacant houses now. In China, newly built apartments are being bought by individuals in large quantities for investment purposes, but eventually, since there are no tenants coming in due to lack of demand, the Chinese real estate market has collapsed. Even in Sweden, last week, the interest rates...

Because the interest rate has gone down, the housing prices have plummeted. The housing prices soared once due to the rising interest rates, but now they have crashed. They are currently lowering the interest rates ahead of the United States. We should learn from other countries. If so, even though apartment prices are rising these days, it is very risky. When investment demand picks up again, it means that speculative demand is also picking up. People borrow money and invest, right? This is very dangerous. Continuously moving forward in this state without the bubble bursting, like watching other countries suffer, the market becomes very difficult. Therefore, even if the interest rate is low, you should not consider buying a house as an investment. You should see the house you live in. Where should you make money? You should earn it from a store. You should invest in commercial real estate to make money like in the United States, with stocks and financial assets.

I need to go on a coverage. If I pour out everything at home like this, even though there are excellent teachers in other countries, we are currently unaware. The U.S. presidential election is on November 5th. Our country is like an overheated frog right now. Apartment prices are going up and so on. However, the U.S. is currently loosening money due to the presidential election. When money is loosened, it doesn't immediately lead to price inflation, it takes a few months to show up. The current government is starting to loosen money just to win. So, when the presidential election is over, they cannot avoid raising interest rates. At that time, the U.S. is loosening money like that, but if they make a mistake, the Federal Reserve could also lower interest rates. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates according to the current Biden administration, then next year, there could be a tremendous surge in prices, and the U.S. will have no choice but to raise interest rates.

There is, but you shouldn't only focus on Korea without considering the surrounding environment. We are directly influenced by the United States and China. Therefore, looking at the global environment of the United States, whether investing in real estate, buying a house, or taking out a loan, is necessary. However, due to the current political situation in the United States, the U.S. environment could deteriorate significantly, and if such things affect Korea, it may not just be a problem with real estate but the entire economy. Therefore, by considering the surrounding environment and the global market environment, we should observe whether Korean real estate prices are rising or falling. Just focusing on Korea and doing things like reducing reconstruction taxes or other similar actions is like being shortsighted. Living in a monthly rent situation, if you keep moving, you start to think it would be nice to have your own home. What do you think about this for people without homes?

Buying a house from an investment perspective is very good for residential safety. Firstly, solving the housing problem in terms of consciousness is about having security in life. The number of apartments has increased so much now, making it difficult to buy with monthly wages. However, even if it's difficult, buying a house in a place where you have the ability to do so, the prices in Seoul city have become very different now. First, buy in an affordable area. Nowadays, there are villas. In Seoul city, there are about 4 million houses in total, among which there are about 1.1 million apartments and about 1.2 million villas, accounting for about 30%. The reason apartment prices are rising is because of these villas. It's because of villa lease scams. Therefore, those who have financial ability are buying apartments, and those who rent villas are buying apartments. Thus, the demand for apartments has increased even more. But now,

We need to pay attention to villas. About 30% of the villas in Seoul are currently being auctioned off at one-third or one-fifth of their value, but people are still not buying them. Villas have many advantages. Because of the many advantages, they are undervalued compared to their current worth. However, apartments are overvalued compared to their worth; it's said to be a bubble. Being undervalued compared to their worth, it's difficult for young people to buy expensive houses all at once. Among villas, there are those with a lot of pig land. So, there may be villas that can be profitable in the future. In Korea, there are cases where feng shui is heavily considered. If we look at feng shui, Gangnam, Daechi-dong, and Gaepo-dong in Seoul are not great because they are all at the end of the road. There are sandy fields in Apgujeong and Hyundai Apartments. So, in terms of feng shui.

As a mainstream, it's not a good place, and the land is, of course, used for construction, so there shouldn't be any problem with building. But in the past, it was all 개버, right? Because high-income people gather there, the area starts to rise gradually. The representative of affordable housing is Gaepo-dong. As redevelopment takes place, high-income people move in, the school district improves, and the area becomes better. Later, when high-income people start to leave, it becomes slumified if not managed properly. High-income people move to new homes. The area can always change. It is essential to know who lives there and their income level. So, when looking for a house, many people talk about what, like Royal Town, Royal square footage.

Many people often see things like this. Do you also consider these aspects to be somewhat important when evaluating emotions? Then, when evaluating an apartment, the royal floor is more expensive. In the past, the royal floor referred to from the middle floor to about two floors up. So, in the past, it was because of the heating. If you are on the middle floor, the heating works well, it's not too cold. If you are closer to the wall, it's colder. Also, the top floor is cold. But now, the concept of the royal floor is disappearing. Even now, those floors are still good, but now the top floor may be better due to the view. There are also people who prefer the first floor, and the square footage is the same. In the past, people preferred large spaces of around 30 pyeong, but now they prefer 25 pyeong. However, this is also a burden for them.

If possible, I would like to live in a big house as usual. Like this, a royal prince, depending on the era, can change and adapt according to his abilities. Now, as I do real estate YouTube, young people ask me what kind of house to buy. So I ask them to first create seed money. If you get excited without creating seed money, saying the house prices are going up, it's just a temporary thing. Don't rush and always in real estate, opportunities come once every ten years. Opportunities always come, so don't be too impatient, just create seed money, saving is also a great investment plan. Not doing anything, resting is also great. Don't just eagerly put money into stocks and real estate as soon as you have money. That's the advice, don't feel anxious like others, trying to buy.

When the market is in turmoil, you shouldn't join in. True investors sell when things are on fire and start buying when it's in a downturn. However, ordinary amateur investors, those who just rely on their monthly paycheck, do the opposite. When things are on fire, if it doesn't benefit them, they feel like they're missing out on life and just keep living by accumulating debt. So, for those who rely on their monthly income, I believe it's important to save diligently, build up some seed money, and never live beyond their means. It's crucial not to live above your financial capacity. Opportunities always come. I think it's good to invest according to one's financial ability.

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고층 아파트 재건축의 도전 과제

현재 고층 건물은 지진에 견딜 수 있도록 견고함과 내진 설계에 중점을 두고 건설되고 있으며, 이는 높은 건설 비용으로 이어집니다.

이러한 고층 건물을 재건축하는 데 드는 높은 비용은 많은 주민들이 감당하기 어려워 건물의 노후화와 재산 가치 하락을 초래합니다.

재건축 문제는 현재 거주자에게 재정적 부담이 되고, 비용을 감당할 수 없는 주민들이 다른 지역으로 이주하는 사태로 이어질 수 있습니다.

건설 프로젝트가 서울시 아파트 입주민에게 미치는 영향

건설사는 시간이 지날수록 아파트 입주민의 분담금을 늘려 소송을 제기하기 어렵게 만듭니다.

서울의 경우 용적률이 높아지면서 약 45억 원의 분담금이 증가해 입주민들의 경제적 부담이 가중되고 있습니다.

특히 30~40년 후 고층 아파트의 미래가 불확실해지면서 높은 토지 개발 비용과 주택 가격 상승은 아파트 거주자들의 경제성 문제를 야기하고 있습니다.

한국의 한 초호화 고층 아파트 단지는 펜트하우스가 1조 원이 넘고, 일반 아파트는 3~4천억 원에 팔리고 있어 월 관리비도 엄청나게 비싸다.

한국의 주거 문화는 미국과 달리 부유층이 아파트를 선호하지만, 앞으로는 새 아파트가 오래된 아파트보다 더 비싸질 것이고, 재건축에 대한 기대보다 편의성에 초점을 맞추는 추세로 바뀔 것으로 예상됩니다.

건물의 점진적인 감가상각이 강조되면서 후손들이 유지비가 많이 드는 부동산을 물려받을 수 있는 미래가 도래할 것으로 예상되어 아파트 구매 시 입지, 용적률 등의 요소를 고려해야 할 필요성이 강조되고 있습니다.

공사 후 생활에 대한 도전과 고려 사항

공사 직후 새 아파트에 입주하면 강한 냄새와 잠재적으로 유해한 화학물질에 노출될 수 있습니다.

건축 자재가 소멸되고 잠재적인 건강 위험을 평가할 수 있도록 입주 전 몇 년을 기다리는 것이 좋습니다.

재건축 선도 지구를 지정하고 주민 동의를 얻는 과정은 성공적인 재개발을 위해 매우 중요하지만, 재정적인 문제와 주민 간 의견 차이로 인해 복잡하게 얽혀 상당한 지연을 초래하는 경우가 많습니다.

한국의 주택 가격 상승에 영향을 미치는 요인

한국의 주택 가격은 도시화, 농촌 지역의 인구 감소 등 다양한 요인에 의해 상승하고 있습니다.

실거래가가 아닌 감정평가 기준의 사용은 언론에서 가격 상승을 과장하는 데 기여합니다.

향후 재건축 가능성과 개발 부담금에 대한 건축 규제의 영향도 서울을 중심으로 주택 시장에 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

서울의 부동산 가격은 지방 부유층의 수요로 인해 계속 상승하는 반면, 제주도와 같은 다른 지역은 신축 주택 미분양으로 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

일산과 분당 등 신도시 개발은 과거 주민들의 강한 반발로 이어져 부동산 시장에 영향을 미쳤습니다.

연사는 유튜브의 부동산 정보에 의존하는 것에 주의를 당부하며, 현재의 시장 불안정성을 글로벌 팬데믹으로 돌리며 집값의 급등락을 예측합니다.

미디어와 글로벌 정치가 부동산에 미치는 영향

부동산 시장 변동에 대한 언론의 선정적인 보도가 주택 가격 부풀리기의 원인이 될 수 있습니다.

정부 정책과 정치적 변화로 인해 부동산 시장이 불안정해지면서 주택 버블에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

미국 대선, 미국과 중국의 경제 정책 등 글로벌 이벤트는 불확실성을 야기하며 국내 부동산 환경에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

서울의 스마트한 주택 구매 전략

서울에 아파트가 늘어나면서 월급으로는 아파트 구입이 어려워졌고, 빌라 임대 사기로 인한 아파트 가격 상승이 이어지고 있습니다.

저평가되어 있지만 빌라는 많은 장점과 미래 수익성을 기대할 수 있는 잠재력을 가지고 있으며, 특히 대지가 많은 빌라는 더욱 그렇습니다.

집을 평가할 때는 해당 지역의 풍수와 인구 통계 및 소득 수준을 고려하는 것이 필수적입니다.

부동산의 기회는 주기적으로 찾아오기 때문에 서두르지 말고 종잣돈을 마련하는 데 우선순위를 두는 것이 좋으며, 자신의 재정 능력 범위 내에서 투자하는 것이 중요합니다.