이자율, 현금 관리 및 투자 전략

### 이자율 및 현금 관리 전략 탐색하기
* 📈 2024년 내내 1% 하락에 대한 초기 예측이 인플레이션 데이터의 변화로 인해 보다 보수적인 추정치인 **25bp로 바뀌는 등 기대치의 변동**에서 알 수 있듯이 금리를 예측하는 것은 어려운 작업입니다.
* 💵 잠재적인 금리 하락에도 불구하고 **현금 보유량을 유지하는 것**은 재무 안정성과 예상치 못한 비용이나 기회에 대비하기 위해 여전히 중요합니다.
* 🚫 "금리가 내려가더라도 현금 보유를 유지해야 합니다."라며 재무 리스크 관리에 있어 **유동성의 중요성**을 강조했습니다.
* 🏠 개인적인 경험은 신용에만 의존하는 것의 위험성을 강조하며, **대침체와 같은 경제 침체기에는 긴급 저축의 필요성**을 강조합니다.
* 📊 금리가 낮아지면 **머니마켓 뮤추얼 펀드는 고수익 예금 계좌보다 수익률이 더 빨리 낮아질 수** 있으므로 현금 관리 방식을 바꾸기 전에 옵션을 신중하게 평가하는 것이 중요합니다.
* 📅 CD 래더 전략을 실행하면 **유동성과 높은 이자율**을 모두 확보할 수 있어 개인이 필요할 때 자금을 확보하면서 변화하는 시장 상황을 활용할 수 있습니다.
* 💡 이 전략은 **현금 보유액과 잠재적 세금 부채를 체계적으로 관리**할 수 있으므로 은퇴를 앞두고 있거나 재정적 독립이 임박한 분들에게 특히 유용합니다.
* 🏦 부유한 개인은 종종 국채 및 기타 투자 수단을 활용하여 거액의 현금을 안전하게 관리하기 때문에 **기존의 FDIC 한도를 넘어서는 옵션**을 제공합니다.

금리가 하락하더라도 재무 안정성과 미래 기회를 위해 현금 보유는 여전히 필수적입니다.

[Music] So, Bo, you're the fancy guy with the CFA. Okay, um, so you'll be able to add a little depth to this. I'm always amazed because one of the things is that people who predict what's going to happen to interest rates. Now, I will say this is a little better because we actually had Chairman Powell come on air and basically said, Yeah, I think that we've gotten to the time where interest rates need to come back down because, you know, this, this, this, and talking about inflation and so forth. So, they're pretty much showing their hand that they think they're going to lower rates. But there's been a lot of time that it is dangerous or iffy territory to be a predictor of interest rates. Yeah, it's very, very, it's a futile effort, it seems. You know, we can look back. This is anticipated rate drops since February of 2024, since the beginning of this year. They're walking through what they thought the gravity of rates would look like, the gravity of

drops, and you can see that at the beginning of the year, thought rate drops were going to happen for sure. It's going to be around 1%, and then as we got towards May, and there was poor inflation data, all of a sudden, Oh, maybe we're not going to drop at 1%. Maybe it's only going to be 25 basis points. And then as we recovered from that, now it is now increased and ticked back up. So, you want to be very careful in terms of listening to someone else's estimation of what's going to happen. We'd much rather you make your decisions based on what is perfect for your financial situation. Now, it does seem likely, though, rates are going to fall. I think most people would agree that rates are more likely to go down from this current posture than up. So, does that mean that we shouldn't hold cash anymore? If rates are going to fall and it's not going to be as attractive, I'm not going to make as much money, should I be doing that?

should I be getting away from cash? Absolutely not. Even with lower rates, even when rates and cash were trash, not paying a whole lot, there are reasons why we want to make sure that we continue to hold cash, even if rates fall, even if the environment is not as attractive as it is right now. Today, this is a great discussion because a lot of people I know, since we're about to come through this new threshold where interest rates will be coming down, will fire up the machinery of telling you once again cash is trash, and people will push you further and further out on the risk spectrum to try to maximize every dollar. And I get it. You're a financial m, you too want to maximize every dollar in your army of dollar bills. But please use me as a case example. I have how there can be too much of a good thing. I thought I was so smart that instead of having an emergency reserve, I had access to a home equity line where I had six figures worth of equity on my house, guys.

it was Fool's Gold. We all know how the rest of the story played out. Is that we had the Great Recession. I all of a sudden got a letter from Wells Fargo letting me know that that home equity line with six figures of access that they conveniently gave me the checkbook and the debit card on was completely closed off and I was not going to have any additional access to it. And here I am looking at my financial life and realizing I was missing the key component of an emergency reserves while we were facing a volatile Market while we were facing strong unemployment while we were facing the stock market losing 20%. I want you to hear me. No matter what happens with interest rates, even if interest rates go down, you have to keep your cash reserves. That's steps one, highest deductible covered, and step four, emergency reserves of the financial order of operations in liquid cash type equivalent Investments. And it's not just that. Even if rates go down, you may want to keep cash because you're planning for

a homeowner payment or you're planning to buy a new automobile, or maybe there's a big trip or a big expense like a wedding, or maybe you just recognize, Hey, there's some future opportunity I might want to capitalize on. Maybe I want to invest in a business, or I want to buy a rental property, or I want to buy a commercial building. Whatever that thing may be, cash is your friend. So, even if rates drop, it does not mean that you should not continue to hold cash. You should hold cash so long as the goals that you have align with having cash on the sidelines that's readily available for you to use. Now, just because we say that doesn't mean that you can't be sophisticated about it, that you can't think through it. Because if rates do go down, there are likely going to be some impacts that you want to know about. What will likely happen is money market mutual funds, the highest payers right now, will likely drop their yields faster than high-yield savings accounts. And while both will go down, the speed at which they go down may

not be the same. So, if you are someone who's hearing this for the first time and you have a really good high-yield savings account, and you heard this, you're like, Oh man, now I'm going to go open my brokerage account. I'm going to immediately jump into a money market mutual fund. Well, if rates do fall in September and the rates in the money market mutual funds drop precipitously, you may have been better off staying in the high-yield savings account. On the converse, if we do see rates fall and all of a sudden money market mutual funds aren't that attractive anymore, you may want to consider opening up a high-yield savings account at one of the online institutions, just like you mentioned, because that might be a better way to get a better yield on cash. We won't know until after the drops happen, but you need to be aware of what's available in the marketplace to you. Yeah, this is one of those things. I did this with my own money. The

fact that I think about pre-2022. I was heavy on the high-yield savings account when the FED started raising rates and treasury rates started going up dramatically. Um, now the majority of my cash is in those money market mutual funds. So you're going to see that we will have an intersection point once again as rates start to drop. Another thing that another likely impact that will take place is that new CDs being issued will also drop pretty quickly. Again, any CDs that you currently have will not drop, but new CD issues will drop. Now this is important. Your account value will not go down. The value of the CDs that you own will not go down. It's just the rate at which newly deposited money will earn. That's what's going to slow down. If I was getting 5% on my CD, I may now when I get a new, when I go buy a new CD, it may only be four and a half percent. So you need to understand that. And when you think about

your terms do I want a 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, 12-month, or 24-month CD? Or there are even strategies that you can deploy, and I bet your grandfather was doing this. You can even use CDs where you don't have to get it 100% right or 100% wrong. There are strategies you can build to make sure that you're taking advantage of the best of both worlds. Yeah, you hear it, but nobody ever explains what it means when somebody says they want to create a CD ladder strategy. And now, we use an example of just a non-mon CD ladder strategy, but to set it up initially, you're going to, let's just assume you have $115,000 to set it up. We did one 3-month, we did one 6-month, and we did one 9-month CD. But then ongoing, if you want to keep rolling this ladder forward, is that 3-month CD kind of came to maturity and now reset itself at whatever the interest rates are, um, as that 3D as

three 3-month CDs came mature. We'd buy another 9-month, and then when that 6-month CD came mature, whatever the interest rate is now 6 months in the future, we'd buy another 9-month. And you see how this process keeps rotating. Now, I will tell you when you do a ladder strategy, we might get to a point where interest rates are so low that you don't have to stay on this train of keep rolling the ladder forward. You can every time be taking a temperature read on where interest rates are. What this does allow you to do, though, is if you want to lock in interest rates for an extended period of time and still give you options to have access to the capital, a ladder strategy is not a bad idea. Yeah, there's some big benefits to doing this. One is you'll have funds available penalty-free every month or every quarter, every six months, depending on the timeline of your ladder. It's a great way to make sure that you have liquidity coming, so it's not uncommon for folks

that are very conservative and more risk-averse. They might say, Hey, I'm going to build a five-year CD ladder so that at every year, I'm going to have liquidity come my way, and that's what's going to cover my living expenses, or that's what's going to cover a fixed portion of my living expenses. That's great. Another thing is you can take advantage with higher or a higher rate longer CD. So, in our example, even though our goal was for three months of liquidity through the ladder, you'll notice the actual CD we were buying was nine months. Every time we were just replacing with a nine-month. You can do the same thing with 12-month or 24-month CDs, depending on the ladder that you're building. What's great is you will be buying higher and higher CDs if rates go up. However, if rates go down, your reinvestment rate risk is present. You will be buying at lower and lower levels, so you need to understand, Okay, just because I was getting 5% and I implemented a CD ladder does not mean that 5% will

be locked in, and this is just an honorable, honorable mention. You don't just have to do this with C; this can also be done with T-bills too. So, you can actually use treasury securities to implement the same type of strategy if you're someone that this makes sense for. Now, where we often see this, Brian, this is less likely to be accumulators, less likely to be people in the beginning stage of their financial journey. This is probably folks that are in the financial independence or retirement stage that are holding more cash than normal. They're not just 3 to 6 months of living expenses; they're 18, 24, 36 months of living expenses. CD ladders might be a great solution for those folks. CD ladders, but then even I'll talk about the T-bills. I mean, we've seen situations where people sell a big chunk of land or real estate, or they sell a business, and they know they have this big tax bill that's due. It's not uncommon that you buy a T-bill or you

could use a CD, but you could go ahead and lock in that return, but then know that it's going to be available when you actually need to pay the taxes or whatever it is. So, there are things beyond, I think, forever when people hear about cash, they hear about FDIC limits and things like that. And I mean, they're like, What do wealthy people do who have millions of dollars that they have to pay? That's why there are options of like treasuries and other things still considered very safe, um, you know, and stable for the long term, but it allows you to go in much larger increments than when people think about the 250, 500,000, all these limits that you have for these protections. There is another level for you to consider, um, when you get into those bigger numbers.

Is Anticipating Rate Drops a Good Strategy for Maximizing Your Cash?

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금리를 예측하는 것은 어려운 일이며 전문가들은 종종 예측을 변경하기도 합니다.

파월 의장의 최근 발언은 금리 인하 가능성을 시사하지만, 금리 인하 시기와 폭은 일관성이 없습니다.

금리 인하 가능성에도 불구하고 현금 보유는 금융 안정성을 위해 여전히 중요하며, 개인은 자신의 고유한 재무 상황에 따라 결정을 내려야 합니다.

연사는 대침체기에 금융 위기를 경험하면서 비상 현금 보유의 필요성을 강조했습니다.

금리 변동에 관계없이 현금 보유를 유지하는 것은 미래의 비용과 투자 기회를 위해 필수적입니다.

발표자는 현금 보유처를 고려할 때 금리 하락이 머니마켓 뮤추얼 펀드와 고수익 저축 계좌에 미치는 다양한 영향을 인식해야 한다고 조언합니다.

이자율 변동이 예금 및 CD에 미치는 영향

발표자는 금리가 상승함에 따라 고수익 예금 계좌에서 머니마켓 뮤추얼 펀드로 전환했습니다.

새로운 CD는 더 낮은 금리로 발행되지만 기존 CD의 가치는 떨어지지 않습니다.

CD 래더 전략을 사용하면 다양한 이자율을 활용하고 만기 CD에서 안정적인 수입을 확보할 수 있습니다.

CD 래더 전략은 다양한 만기의 CD에 순환 투자하여 금리 변동에 따른 이점을 활용하는 것입니다.

이 접근 방식은 위약금 없이 정기적으로 자금에 접근할 수 있어 생활비를 위한 유동성을 제공합니다.

또한 이 전략은 더 높은 금리를 고정할 수 있는 잠재력을 제공하며 장기 CD를 선택할 수 있는 유연성을 제공합니다.

현금 관리를 위한 CD 사다리 및 지폐 사용

CD 사다리와 양도성예금증서는 많은 현금을 보유하고 있는 재정적 독립 또는 은퇴 단계에 있는 개인에게 효과적인 전략이 될 수 있습니다.

이러한 옵션은 토지 매각이나 사업체 매각과 같은 중요한 재정적 이벤트가 있는 사람들에게 유용하며 세금 납부에 필요한 안정적인 수익을 제공합니다.

자산이 많은 부유한 개인도 국고채를 통해 기존의 FDIC 한도를 초과하는 안전하고 안정적인 장기 투자를 할 수 있습니다.