기업의 수익에 영향을 미치는 경제적 위험과 트렌드

다니엘 디마티노 부스는 기업들이 파산율 상승과 인플레이션 압력으로 인해 상당한 위험에 직면해 있다고 경고합니다.

### 다니엘 디마티노 부스와 함께하는 경제 인사이트
* 💰 기업들은 **팬데믹 최악의 시기에 버금가는 높은 비율의 챕터 11 신청**으로 파산 위험에 직면해 있습니다.
* 📈 인플레이션은 **공급망 붕괴와 특이한 사건 등 연준이 통제할 수 없는 다양한 요인**으로 인해 발생하고 있습니다.
* 🏦 연준은 정치적 압력에 관계없이 **고용 시장에 예상치 못한 약세**가 발생하면 금리를 인하할 수 있습니다.
* 🛠 여러 부문에서 해고가 확대되고 있으며, 이는 **팬데믹 관련 조정에서 보다 일반적인 경기 침체 패턴**으로 전환되고 있음을 나타냅니다.
* 📉 경기 침체가 공식적으로 선언되지는 않았지만, 경제 지표에 따르면 **2023년 10월에 경기 침체가 시작되었을 가능성**이 있습니다.
* 🤖 AI는 비즈니스 운영을 혁신하고 있으며, 단기적으로는 **비용 절감 방안**에 초점을 맞출 가능성이 높습니다.
* 💹 암호화폐는 **시장 심리와 위험 선호도**를 반영하여 주식 시장 성과에 영향을 미칩니다.
* 🌐 세계화의 미래는 **개별 국가의 리더십과 보호주의로의 잠재적 변화**에 달려 있습니다.
* 🌍 지정학적 분쟁은 **영향을 받는 지역에 직접적으로 영향을 미치거나 더 광범위한 경제적, 사회적 결과**를 통해 기업의 수익에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

We've been speaking with top economists to better understand what this economic climate means for companies' bottom lines. Today, I'm speaking with Danielle DiMartino Booth. She's the CEO and founder of QI Research, a global thought leader, and a former member of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Thanks so much for joining us. It's great to be here today. Thank you for having me again. So, what's the biggest risk to a company's bottom line right now? I think it's how the bankruptcy cycle is gaining momentum. I'm not focused on my bottom line as much as I am on my top line, and right now, it's revenue's cash flow that really are the most at risk. You can't play a lot of accounting games with things like, These are my sales. This is how much cash flow the company's throwing off. This is our ability because of that cash flow to service our debt. This is just really black and white area right now in the C-suites.

So that's why they have to be even more cognizant of the bottom line. What I'm hearing is like, it's really about the money coming in, how much money is coming out, and keeping that book balanced. And that's the biggest risk is like, can you keep that book balanced or not? Yeah, that that is where we are, the run rate that we're seeing, um, early summer, in terms of large companies, we say large, we mean liabilities of 50 million or more. But the run rate that we're seeing of chapter 11, if not chapter seven liquidation, bankruptcy filings, uh, really is on par with the worst, darkest days that we saw of the pandemic. What's keeping inflation so high? Is this higher for longer strategy coming from the fed? Is that working. The Fed right now is in a really tight position when it comes to making monetary policy for the public good.

You know, there were increased costs in the health care system that were caused because of the pandemic. Um, there was a shortage of semiconductors that caused new car prices and used car prices to rise off, well off of their trend after the pandemic hit. It is now more expensive to insure those cars. These are what we call idiosyncrasies. They're one-off events that raise inflation, but over which the Federal Reserve has no control. It's the decision of regulatory bodies. So I think what you're saying is, like all these inflationary pressures, like the interest rates is just it's just one piece of the puzzle. It shouldn't be like, it's not the Fed's fault that inflation is high. So that might be too broad of a statement. At the very peak of the post-pandemic stimulus, the part that the fed was involved with, you know, the fed owned, I want to say, 38% of the mortgage

backed securities market. So the Fed policy definitely had a hand in the run-up to these prices. But again, now we're watching the other side of that, that there's such a long lag time, 12, 18 months between what we're seeing now, which is we're seeing the beginnings of home price declines in certain markets. And we're seeing apartment supply coming online at the fastest pace in a half-century. We're seeing that level of supply start to manifest as falling rents, but it's going to take a long time before you see that come through the consumer price index. But the Fed will probably still get the blame all along the way. But again, you know, when I was at the Fed for almost a decade, they would always say that interest rate policy is a blunt instrument. Do you see the Fed lowering rates anytime soon? Do you think the election is changing their opinion? We have to take Federal Reserve officials at their word, at least to the extent that

it pertains to unexpected weakness in the job market. It doesn't matter how close to or far away from Election Day we happen to be. If it's appropriate, if there is unexpected weakening in the job market, I do think that the Fed will move, uh, and will not hesitate to move just because it's an election year. I think Powell's been pretty clear about that, but that the pressure politically, this is the most active Fed chair in the history of the institution. That's a matter of public record. He has been up to the hill and spoken to more individuals, uh, representatives in Congress and the House of Representatives in the US Senate than any of his predecessors. So he will definitely be feeling pressure coming from by way of their constituencies and the relationships that he's built up over the past 5 or 6 years on the Hill to be attentive to the weakening in the job market.

And I think he'll be listening for that. Do you think there will be more layoffs in other sectors to come? And what industries do you think are the most at risk? We are indeed seeing a fanning out, a broadening of the pain in the job market. And this is where we get into the I overhired into the pandemic, and therefore I shrunk back to a regular sized into chapter two, which is your plain vanilla recession. And that's where we are right now. This is when your job losses begin at the lowest rungs in terms of skills, educational attainment, income-making capacity. And this is why Federal Reserve officials do need to be so in tune to what's happening right now. If this is anything like what we saw in 2007, 2008, it was one-tenth of a move up in the unemployment rate. It's kind of where we are right now.

And then we turned a corner in early 2008. All of a sudden then it was 3/10 and 4/10 of a percentage move higher in the unemployment rate in any given month. And that's what happens when recession sets in. So then with all that said, are we actually in a recession? I know we haven't declared one, but would you say we're in a recession or are we nailing that soft landing? Nobody's talking about that soft landing anymore. Has that gone away? I think the soft landing chatter has, has dried up with, with good reason. We get quarterly, uh, revisions with a very long lag time. The most recent that we got showed that rather than 640,000 jobs being created in 2023, third quarter, that there were, in fact, 192,000 jobs destroyed. But it does indeed look like we're in a situation similar to that where we'll see probably October

be backdated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Their business cycle dating committee took exactly 366 days to date the recession that began in December of 2007. So, because of all the noise introduced in the post-pandemic environment, it could easily take them a solid year again to be able to backdate the recession. But from all the evidence that we've seen, it does look like the recession began in October of 2023. Will AI transform the way that companies do business? And what does that mean for workers, and what does that mean for employers? Well, I think AI already has transformed the way that business is conducted in America, especially when companies are dealing with recession. They're going to look to whatever the latest technology happens to be to help them really, uh, protect their profit margins. There's going to be a much happier ending to AI. It's going to revolutionize the efficiency of health care.

But I would say in the nearest term, call it the next 6 to 18 months, AI is going to be where it's at least going to feel like a weapon of mass destruction because it's going to be wielded for the purpose of cutting costs. What impact do you see cryptocurrencies having on the broader stock market? So to me, cryptocurrencies are the best reflection, the best reflection of what I learned all those years at the Fed are called animal spirits. So to the extent that the cryptocurrency market is behaving well, that you're going to see buoyancy in the stock market, I really do think it's that simple. I'm a superficial economic, financial market historian. Every single time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, the stock market has finally turned tail. And that's always how it's worked. There's been no exceptions to that rule. So I don't think cryptocurrency is a reflection or a matter of inflation or deflation.

I think it is a reflection of people having continued risk appetites because everything in their portfolio is doing nicely. What's the future of globalization, and is it declining? It depends on who the allies are of any given country. You have a coming of age in Mexico to our border and a higher educational attainment and a higher homeownership rate just south of our border. Maybe we made a mistake by becoming so deeply embedded economically with China. But we know how globalization can work to help us be more efficient and thereby build out our allied networks, possibly between Canada, the United States, and Mexico, as it's always been envisioned. But of course, if there are far-right contingencies in any given country that want to put up trade barriers, it's not going to matter what and who your political allies are. It really is going to come down to the leadership of individual countries. The fear, of course, with one far-right-wing government after another being

elected, that it's going to be a potential wave of isolationism and protectionism and nationalism. And that means that we could, in the longer term, see inflation be higher than it otherwise would be. How does the ongoing war in Israel, and also the one in Ukraine, how do you see those impacting companies' bottom lines? It's a very company-specific question, and whether or not you sell into those markets. We have seen that social strife and divisiveness has its economic price. None of this is free, and a divided America will fall. And make no mistake about that. So I think that we have to be cognizant of the price that we will pay if we decide to be an isolationist nation. When it comes to our allies, we have to always bear in mind what made our nation great to begin with. We didn't pick and choose back then. It was liberty.

Give me liberty or die. So I'll get off my soapbox. But I think we should be cognizant not just of direct companies selling into war-torn lands, but also how the war and other areas of the world affect the social standing, the social fabric of the United States, because there's a very real economic element to that.

America Is In A 'Plain Vanilla Recession': Danielle DiMartino Booth | The Bottom Line

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현재 경제 환경과 기업에 미치는 영향

QI Research의 CEO이자 전 연방준비제도이사회 위원인 다니엘 디마티노 부스는 매출과 현금 흐름에 초점을 맞춰 기업의 파산 위험이 커지고 있다고 강조합니다.

현재 대기업의 챕터 11 및 챕터 7 파산 신청률은 팬데믹의 가장 암울했던 시절과 비슷한 수준입니다.

인플레이션은 연방준비제도이사회가 통제할 수 없는 의료 비용 및 반도체 부족과 같은 다양한 일회성 사건으로 인해 여전히 높은 수준을 유지하고 있습니다.

연방준비제도 정책이 주택과 일자리에 미치는 영향

연방준비제도의 정책은 주택 가격 상승에 기여했지만 이제는 가격 하락과 임대료 하락으로 이어지는 시차가 있습니다.

예상치 못한 고용 시장의 약세에 대한 연준의 대응은 선거 연도와 관계없이 금리 변동으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

일자리 손실이 여러 부문으로 확대되고 있으며, 가장 숙련도가 낮은 직종이 가장 큰 영향을 받고 있어 경기 침체 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

2008년 초부터 실업률이 크게 증가하면서 현재 경제 상황과 경기 침체 가능성에 대한 의문이 제기되고 있습니다.

최근 일자리 창출 수치가 하향 조정되면서 오히려 일자리 감소가 발생했을 수도 있음을 시사하고 있습니다.

AI는 이미 경기 침체기에 비즈니스 운영을 혁신하고 있으며, 특히 의료 분야의 효율성을 혁신할 것으로 기대됩니다.

AI와 암호화폐가 경제에 미치는 영향

AI는 향후 6~18개월 내에 강력한 비용 절감 도구가 될 것으로 예상되며, 잠재적으로 혼란을 야기할 수 있습니다.

암호화폐는 투자자의 위험 선호도를 반영하며 주식 시장의 성과에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다.

세계화의 미래는 정치적 리더십과 경제 동맹의 구축에 따라 불확실합니다.

글로벌 분쟁이 미국 경제에 미치는 영향

고립주의와 민족주의의 잠재적 부상은 장기적으로 더 높은 인플레이션으로 이어질 수 있습니다.

이스라엘과 우크라이나에서 진행 중인 전쟁은 사회적 갈등과 분열로 인해 경제적 대가를 치르는 등 기업에도 영향을 미치고 있습니다.

분열된 미국은 심각한 결과를 초래할 수 있으며, 동맹국과의 강력한 관계 유지의 중요성을 강조하고 글로벌 분쟁이 미국 사회 구조에 미치는 경제적 영향을 인식해야 합니다.