시장 변동성: 블랙아웃 기간 전 매도 시간

### 판매 시기: 시장 위험과 계절적 추세 탐색하기
* 📉 스티브 반 미터는 **"월요일에 모든 지옥이 열린다"**며 특히 기업 바이백의 블랙아웃 기간이 임박한 상황에서 패닉이 시작되기 전에 매도해야 한다고 강조합니다.
* 📊 시장은 연중 최악의 2주간의 거래 기간에 접어들고 있으며, 경기와 다가오는 선거에 대한 우려 속에 **연방준비제도이사회가 4년 만에 첫 금리 인하**를 앞두고 있어 불확실성이 커지고 있습니다.
* 📉 투자자들은 금리 인하가 주식에 강세를 가져올 것이라고 오해하고 있지만, 실제로는 경제 펀더멘털이 악화되고 있으며 **모건 스탠리는 현재 시장이 과매수 상태**라고 지적합니다.
* 📅 과거 데이터에 따르면 지난 9월 4일의 경우 **S&P 500 지수와 나스닥 지수가 평균 5% 이상 하락**했으며, 블랙아웃 기간 동안 **기업 자사주 매입이 35% 감소**할 것으로 예상되면서 우려의 목소리가 커지고 있습니다.
* 💔 월말까지 미국 주식에서 **655억 달러를 포함해 전 세계 주식에서 1,950억 달러의 잠재적 매도 포지션**을 취하고 있어 시장 심리는 취약한 상황입니다.
* 📈 기술적 지표는 **S&P 500의 잠재적 트리플 탑 패턴**을 시사하며, **모멘텀 지표가 둔화**되어 블랙아웃 기간 동안 하락 위험이 증가했음을 나타냅니다.
* 📊 기술 업종에서도 비슷한 패턴이 나타나고 있으며, **고점 하락과 잠재적 롤오버의 조짐**이 나타나고 있어 **약세장 초기 단계**에 진입한 것이 아닌가 하는 우려가 나오고 있습니다.
* 💰 금이 최고치를 경신하고 있지만, 달러 약세 환경에서 **대두와 같은 다른 원자재에 대한 기회**가 커질 것으로 예상되는 만큼 높은 가격을 쫓는 것은 주의해야 합니다.

스티브 반 미터는 지금이 시장 패닉이 시작되기 전에 매도해야 할 때라고 경고합니다.

it's time to sell. Now I'm your host, Steve Van Meter, and Lakes are joining me today. In our show today, all hell breaks loose on Monday. I'm going to show you why you want to sell now before the panic hits because this is our Sunday show, the show that makes you money, where we like to look at the technicals, momentum, and machine positioning each and every Sunday to help you make more money trading and investing. Now let's head over to Bloomberg where we picked today's story up with the headline as buyback blackout as an extra layer of uncertainty for US stocks. And this is the risk we're facing because we're heading into the worst two-e period of the year. And this is a challenge because investors are along this market. We're seeing corporates about to head into the blackout window and even worse, as you're about to see, the machines are looking to sell and US companies are now facing an embargo on repurchases. This started on Friday in this into the run-up into

third quarters earning season investors say the Restriction is making the outlook for equities even more clouded at a time when the Federal Reserve is nearing its first interest rate cut in four years and uncertainty about us elections and the economy abounds and the bigger issue here is the Fed because we're headed into the Blackout Window now it started on Friday it's only going to accelerate as more companies black out each and every day the challenge now is can the FED give the market confidence that they're achieving the soft Landing or will the FED spook the market into a massive selloff and markets are emotionally scarred from the first week in August with Buybacks in a blackout period it puts even more emphasis on the FED to come through with a rate cut because investors falsely believe that R Cuts somehow are bullish for stocks it's all about economic fundamentals and what we're going to find out in the third quarter is things didn't get better they got worse and yet

Morgan Stanley says the market is in a short-term overbought scenario, which we totally agree with. And we look at the charts we'll show you as we're entering the seasonally treacherous time of the year. It's not just treacherous; it's the absolute worst two-period in the history of the markets, starting on Monday. There was a case for you to get out; this is it. As the market is now expecting a perfect landing by the FED, but be patient because their track record of achieving such things is absolutely 0%. The FED's never done this in history, and yet investors each and every time line up; they buy stocks in a big way because they believe the FED can pull off the impossible, and they never do. But now it's turn to Goldman, who has been warning that we're entering the worst seasonal period for stocks as we head into the second half of September. We're now right here where I have this circle as we look back in history of the

composite period going back to 1928. The data is very conclusive. It is the worst two-period, and you want to get out, and Goldman knows that. Again, it's, and Goldman again confirms the second half of September. This is the worst two-e trading period of the year for the S&P 500. And how bad is it? Well, just going back the last four Septembers, you're looking at dropping 5%, and that's in a good case. The NASDAQ, a little over 5%. If the Fed's signal is taken as bad news for the economy, it could sell off even more, particularly if the machines start to sell because we enter September with local system length fully recovered, Inc. Corporate heading to the Blackout Window as Pension funds quarter in Supply and some mutual fund year-end important dynamics that Goldman knows because what do we see from Pension funds? They're likely to be selling stocks here going into the end of the year because they're overweight equities. We see mutual funds need to do some repositioning, all of

these things could lead to a massive selloff in stocks over the next two weeks, and the CTAs could be the ones behind them. Because we go back a couple of weeks, we're now entering the second half of this one Monon CTA exposure. We see in a flat tape, they're net sellers in an up tape, they were buyers. But look at this, if we see a down tape over the next two weeks, you could see 195 billion in global equities, with 65.5 billion out of US equities, all coming by the end of the month. This could send stocks sliding in a massive way, and one of the issues here is corporates are big buy buyers. They've been the largest buyer in the equity market, and we expect their demand to drop by 35% during the closed window. Now, the buyback bid has been very, very strong, but a way into September 13th when 50% of the corporates now entering blackout and chaos set to begin Monday, because this means we're seeing that 6.62 billion in passive demand from this.

group get cut in half, and it's only going to get worse. But let's take a look at our screens here. We're talking about a market being overbought, a market being stretched. Let's take a look at the S&P 500 because we know momentum is positive. And how do we know that? Because the relative strength indicator, this is a tactical indicator, it's above 40, it's at 59. That means momentum is positive. The moving average convergence divergence, or MACD, this has a positive cross. This also denotes that momentum is moving to the upside. Now, if you have trouble reading these, you have trouble trading these, but we run a proprietary overlay on a bunch of technical signals. We call that report Momentum Timer Pro. It's got three consecutive daily buy signals. Now, what's unique is we look at momentum over 1, 3, and 6-month periods, and we look for shifts when momentum is to the downside and then shifts to the upside. We flag that on reports so our subscribers can take advantage of a

swing and momentum with a great deal of confidence. Now we're looking to back test that here as we speak. Our programmers are working on that, but you'll know we have no position in the S&P 500. And we've told our subscribers that any equity positions we recommended, which we have just a couple, that we need to tighten up the stop losses heading into the Blackout Window because the risk here is high. Now we talk about machine positioning. We run a report called CTA timer Pro where we mimic the fast and the slow algorithms. You can see the machines here should be backing off their very long positions right now. We show a 35% exposure to the upside. Now if you want to take advantage of these reports, it's very simple. Check out the links in the description below because you get the daily reports. We give you all the tradable signals. I go through each trade and give you my opinion on them. We give you stop loss levels to protect your downside risk. We track them for you. We give you a weekly update each

Saturday on the stop loss levels. Here's the best part: not only is it fully duplicatable, but you get a 30-day free trial. This is amazing because you can duplicate each and every trade we do. Links in the description below. Don't get caught off guard by this market downturn. Now, let's check out the price chart here on the S&P 500 because it's starting to look like a triple top. You see the market set an all-time high here, it pulled back, everybody came in and bought the dip on that Yen carry trade blow up, and got right near the all-time high. And what happened? Well, sellers came in, and then buyers once again said, No, we got to take this higher. The Fed's going to cut rates. But what we're seeing now is evidence of a potential triple top. We know the momentum here still has somewhat to move to the upside, of course. One thing we've talked about is the potential downside risk. Let's look at the weekly chart here. In fact, let's zoom in a little bit closer than that.

let's go to the 10-year Chart. What do we see on a weekly basis? The relative strength index and the MACD are both slowing down despite facing this triple top scenario. The risk we face here is during this Blackout Window. We could see stocks move to the downside. If you start to see those weekly technical signals break down, you're going to see a much, much larger move down in the market. And there's some evidence then as we turn over to the tech stocks. Now momentum is positive here. It only mattered for two days according to our reports. We see the relative strength indicator took off. It's at 56. MACD's got the positive cross. Our momentum timer Pro picked up that change of momentum over the last week. But we don't have a position on this either. Now we do have a position in tech stocks, but it's not on QQQ. And we told our subscribers, You got to tighten up your stop-loss levels here. Now it did hit our upside Target. We revised that now higher, but our downside Target really

hasn't changed much, but look at the machine positioning still here around 35% long exposure. We know from Goldman and Nira and other companies they're maxed out almost to the long side. You see a sell-off in equities, you're going to see the machine start to dump here. But let's take a look at QQQ, and what do we see? A similar scenario here on the weekly. You'll note that the RSI and the MACD, they hit overbought territory several times and are now rolling over to the downside. But what really concerns me is on the daily chart. What do you see? A series of lower highs. So you have an all-time high, a pullback, a lower high, and mind you, these are the companies that are buying back massive amounts of their stock. You see a pullback, and right now it's still below that second high here. We think this is rolling over. If it does, watch out to the downside. We're not talking about a bull market anymore. We're talking about the early stages of

a bare Market. Now let's talk about the Russell 2000 because momentum here is positive. RSI is at 56. MD saying well maybe not with a negative cross here because momentum Ty Pros got one consecutive daily Buy Signal. That's nothing to write home about. It did hit our upside Target. We did revise that to the upside again. We still not sure it's going to hit that Target 202 is going to look more convincing to me during the Blackout Window. Let's head over and check out IWM because what do we see? The same thing we saw in the NASDAQ 00. A high, a pullback, a lower high, a pullback, and right now what appears to be a lower high. You see this 20221. This is a six-month volume profile. This is a 200-day moving average in 10. I believe this rolls over. If it breaks out below that, we zoom out to the one-year Chart. You see this lower band here, the next lightly destination. But the reality is the last time was here, it didn't really hardly

hold support. You could be down here in the 160 level before you know it, particularly again seasonal factors here. It's not just the next two weeks but hanging in the election. Stocks usually don't perform all that well, so keep that in mind. Now, let's take a look at, of course, the banking sector because rate cuts should be bullish for the banks, but they're not. Not at all. Still momentum here being positive with a relative strength index at 53. McD's got a negative cross, potentially indicating we're seeing a move to the downside. Momentum Ty Pro still got one daily Buy Signal, but I wouldn't hold on to that too long because we did hit our downside Target only briefly, and we are leaving our upside Target right where it was. But again, you know that we're leading the machine position here because we run a historical overlay, and that is a huge difference maker. We tell the machines where they ought to be, and eventually, they catch up. That gives you the advantage in trading Against the Machines and making money. But what do we

see here a high, a lower high, a potential lower high coming in here. This means roll over and head to the downside. The first stop here is this brief Supply Zone and then the downside move to the 200-day moving average. Of course, we know if it breaks, the 200-day moving average is often considered very bearish for the market. But let's take a look at Emerging Markets here because we see momentum being negative now. This is one that didn't flip. We saw a lot of flipping of momentum on Friday on The Daily charts, but how about this relative strength index of 52? Mag's got a negative cross momentum Time pro nine consecutive de daily sell signals here. So, we're going to see this thing enter a one-month window of negative momentum before long. But let's take a look at the chart for em here and see what we can find because it suggests momentum. It did get a little to the downside and then popped up, but it's still the trend on the daily chart as momentum is heading lower. But if

you're looking for a topping pattern here. You have a left shoulder here, you have a head, you have a right shoulder. Your neckline is going to be somewhere right here around this 4181 level, right where it holds support. If it breaks that 4181 level, look for people stop loss to trigger. That will send some downside movement. We're looking at 3950 here at some point. A break again of that 200-day moving average. If you're wondering what that white shaded Zone in, that's called Steve's zone of Doom. You break that, you're into all-out financial crisis. Now let's talk about the bond market. Is what we know from Nira is that their machines are Max long US treasuries. Of course, their sell signals coming up, but we're still not there. But if we see 10-year treasuries get below 11179, look for some profit taking on the machines. But let's take a look at our screens here because people said there was no way we'd ever make money on this.

TLT trade we went back in March had a buy it open and we just didn't make any money. We didn't put a stop-loss level on, so something I want to encourage you is to trade with stop-loss levels. But if you don't or you forget and you find yourself getting upside down, just use the reports to dollar-cost average in. And check this out, we went from a loss to a 6.82% gain, non-counting dividends. Cost bases at 94, Friday's closing at 141. Upside target, we didn't quite get there. We're going to see this is going to be very sensitive to the FED's announcement on Wednesday. But here we see momentum is still strong. The daily count on momentum Time pro still looks good, but we see momentum is maxed out. I do believe there's going to be a pullback in bonds at some point. That may all depend on what the FED has to say on Wednesday, of course. We'll be covering that as you know. But here we see resistance is right at where it's

sitting at right now. This is a level that was previously support, now it's resistance. Would not surprise me at all if sellers try to push back here. This would create an opportunity if you're not long the bond market to look to add positions on a pullback here. Perhaps the FED will spook the markets and send this rallying higher. You'll find out for sure this next week. For the moment, this looks intact. This isn't something I'd look to add to, but on a pullback, I would look to add to that in a big way. Now gold is breaking out. Is Ray Cuts bullish for gold? Well, the problem is everything is bullish for gold, and right now this is breaking out to new all-time highs. You'll know we're not chasing this higher because why buy high when you can buy something low? We'll show you some other opportunities here again. You see 26 consecutive daily buy signals, momentum nearly maxed out across all positionings. We see, of course, machine positioning long gold. There is just a

lot of risk when you're buying at the top and hoping to go higher. But let's talk about something that did follow through here. That is GDX, this is Vanc Gold Miners. Momentum turned positive over the last two days, and price just took off. Relative strength index is 63. McD's got that positive cross. Momentum timer Pro, it should say two daily buy signals. Well, a little typo there on my behalf. Upside Target, we tagged that, and we revised it higher. I didn't think that was going to happen. You might remember I said I think the move for gold is to the downside and for the miners here. But nope, people took it higher, and you see the thing just stair-stepping higher. Look at the difference between this and the NASDAQ. You see a high, a higher high, a higher high, and now even a higher high than that. We go out to the five-year Chart. Your upside Target is right here in that $41 low range. You see the prior top here. There is a good chance we're going to see this get there. Let's

take a look at the technical signals because they are rallying higher, and people are going to chase gold and miners to the upside here. We'll see if the FED changes any of that momentum, but talk about something that we have been flagging to our clients on our reports. They said, Watch out, do not touch the dollar here. We don't like the dollar going into the Fed rate cut announcement. Here we can see momentum did turn, it did show up on our reports. We went from a short machine positioning to a long position. We saw a momentum shift, and yet we still told our subscribers, Don't touch this thing. Our RSI is at 44, MACD has got a negative cross. The fact that we see momentum machine positioning turn is not the issue, because when we look at UUP, what do you see? Something that doesn't look very good. The 200-day moving average is looking at resistance. We did tell people, If you're going to trade this, there's your upside target, but look at this, it runs right into that six-month volume profile and gets

rejected once, twice, three times. This time we think it's headed down. How far could this dollar go? Well, wouldn't surprise me in the short term if we get down here to the high $27 range. But Look Out Below, you're looking at around the high 26s as a much broader Target. You see a topping pattern here, it's very evident. You see a left shoulder, head, right shoulder. It broke the neckline right there, plunged down, now coming back up to the neckline to find resistance, and it's doing that, meaning the case for the dollar is lower, and that means the case for Commodities is higher. Now, one thing is cool about our reports is we simply trade machine positioning and the technicals, but this is amazing because all of a sudden we see a bunch of news articles coming out on the commodity Market. Those of you subscribers know these are some of our biggest trades right now. Let's talk about soybeans because the news is coming out very bullish for this. We had to buy it open on October 27th. This trade's up

2.22% and how do we do it? We just followed our reports. These are live stop-loss levels. This is exactly what our subscribers see. 2171 is their stop-loss machine positioning. Turn momentum turned off deep short positions. We told people there's going to be huge opportunity here, and we think it's only going to get better. Let's take a look at soybeans because this is a big opportunity, that and other commodities, especially on a weaker dollar. Now, right now, it's running into resistance, its 50-day moving average. That's that green line there, not a surprise. Look for a bit of a pullback before this thing takes off again, and that's what you get, the early signs of a bottoming pattern. If you're not in soybeans, you still have a good chance to get in here. You see momentum rising. You see the volume here is holding this zone here, so if it gets a bit of a pullback, it pulls down here, it's okay, and we might get stopped out of this if that

happens, but there'll be another opportunity. But nevertheless, we see a bunch of upside potential here on a weaker dollar. They could send soybeans up into this $24 range. You L zoom out here over a 2-year chart, and you clearly see the last level of support that broke was right here around 2450. You see upside Target to there. This is looking like a fantastic opportunity, and a lot of people, they only look at the stock market. They don't realize there's plenty of opportunity elsewhere in the market. Of course, we give you all the Insight on that. Check out those links in the description below. Start making money trading and investing like you never have before. And with that, I'm Steve vanmeer. Thanks for watching. Thanks for being fans. Bye now.

All Hell Is About to Break Loose on Monday - Sell Now Before the Panic Hits!

Steven Van Metre

시장 침체 전에 판매해야 하는 긴급성

다가오는 기업의 자사주 매입 정지와 연방준비제도의 금리 인하 가능성으로 시장은 불확실성에 직면해 있습니다.

이 시기는 역사적으로 주식에 있어 최악의 시기이며, 과거에도 9월은 지속적으로 하락세를 보였습니다.

블랙아웃, 연준의 조치, 연기금의 포지션 변경이 맞물려 대규모 시장 매도로 이어질 수 있으므로 투자자는 지금 매도하는 것이 좋습니다.

잠재적 주식 매도 및 시장 역학 관계

CTA의 순매도와 기업 환매 수요 감소로 인해 향후 2주간 대규모 주식 매도가 예상됩니다.

S&P 500 지수는 긍정적인 모멘텀을 보이고 있지만 트리플 탑 형성 가능성은 시장 침체에 대한 우려를 키우고 있습니다.

이 보고서는 구독자가 불확실한 시장을 탐색할 수 있도록 일일 거래 가능한 시그널과 30일 무료 체험판을 제공합니다.

시장 동향 및 기술적 신호 분석

상대강도지수와 MACD가 둔화되고 있어 블랙아웃 기간 동안 시장 침체 가능성에 대한 우려가 커지고 있습니다.

기술주는 긍정적인 모멘텀을 보이고 있지만 QQQ의 일봉 차트를 보면 고점이 연이어 낮아지고 있어 롤오버 가능성과 약세장 초기 단계를 시사하고 있습니다.

러셀 2000 지수와 은행 업종도 비슷한 패턴을 보이고 있으며 모멘텀 지표는 하락 가능성을 시사하고 있습니다.

시장 분석: 신흥 시장 및 채권 동향

시장은 단기 공급 구간과 200일 이동평균선을 목표로 고점 하락과 함께 잠재적인 롤오버를 보이고 있습니다.

이머징 시장은 4181이 중요 지지선으로 마이너스 모멘텀과 잠재적 탑핑 패턴을 경험하고 있습니다.

채권 시장은 현재 미국 국채를 매수하고 있으며 11179 아래에서 잠재적인 차익 실현 신호가 나타나고 있고 최근 TLT 거래는 손실에서 6.

채권 시장은 저항 수준에 있어 하락 시 매수 기회가 될 수 있습니다.

금은 사상 최고치를 경신하고 있지만 고점 매수에는 위험이 따릅니다.

밴 골드 마이너스(GDX)는 긍정적인 모멘텀을 보이며 상승 목표를 상향 조정한 반면 달러의 모멘텀 전환과 200일 이동평균선 저항은 우려를 키우고 있습니다.

달러의 하락과 원자재에 미치는 영향

달러는 27달러대 초반까지 하락할 것으로 예상되며, 목표치는 26달러대 초반으로 달러 가치 하락과 원자재 가격 상승을 나타냅니다.

대두의 강세 소식으로 10월 27일 이후 2.

22% 상승하는 등 성공적인 거래가 이루어지고 있으며, 여전히 진입 기회가 있습니다.

달러 약세는 대두를 24달러대까지 끌어올릴 것으로 예상되며, 추가 상승 가능성도 있어 주식 시장을 넘어 원자재에 대한 기회로 부각되고 있습니다.