트럼프의 두 번째 임기 동안 연방준비제도에 미칠 잠재적 영향력

### 연방준비제도에 대한 트럼프의 영향력: 복잡한 관계
* 🤔 미국 대통령은 일반적으로 연방준비제도와 거리를 유지하지만, 최근 **트럼프 대통령의 발언**은 이러한 역학 관계에 변화가 있을 수 있음을 시사합니다.
* 💬 트럼프는 **"연준은 통제 불능"**이라며 제롬 파월 의장과 연준을 공개적으로 비판하고, 금리 결정을 직접 지시하지 않고도 영향력을 행사하고 싶다는 의사를 밝혔습니다.
* 📜 연방준비제도는 의회의 법적 위임에 따라 물가 안정과 최대 고용을 달성하기 위해 운영되며, 이는 **통화 정책의 독립성에 매우 중요한 역할**을 합니다.
* 📊 트럼프의 선거 캠프 측근들은 연준의 구조를 변경하는 방안을 고려했지만, 일부 고문들은 연준이 **"독립된 섬"이 되어서는 안 된다**고 강조하면서 연준의 독립성을 간섭하는 것에 대해 경고했습니다.
* 🗳 대통령이 연준에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 주요 수단은 **의장 지명 및 이사회 결원 충원 등 임명**을 통해 이루어지지만, 트럼프의 즉각적인 능력은 제한되어 있습니다.
* 📅 향후 2년간 이사회 자리가 한 자리밖에 없고 **파월 의장의 임기가 2026년 5월에 만료**되기 때문에 트럼프 대통령이 연준을 재구성할 수 있는 선택지가 제한될 것입니다.
* 🔄 트럼프는 파월의 리더십에 불만을 표시했지만 **파월은 임기가 끝날 때까지 연준에 남겠다는 의사**를 확고히 밝혔기 때문에 인플레이션이 연준의 목표치를 상회하는 추세를 보이면 갈등이 발생할 가능성이 있습니다.
* ⚖ 트럼프가 연준과의 관계를 탐색하는 과정에서 특히 **중앙은행의 결정이 그의 경제 목표와 일치하지 않을 경우 긴장이 고조될 가능성**이 남아 있습니다.

트럼프는 과거의 비판과 통화 정책을 직접 통제할 수 있는 능력의 한계에도 불구하고 주로 연준 의장 등 임명을 통해 연준에 영향력을 행사하고 있습니다.

[Narrator] The President of the United States typically keeps the Federal Reserve at arm's length, with one recent exception. - The Fed is out of control. The Fed has gone crazy. Jerome Powell is not making it easy.

- There's nothing written down that says the Fed *should* be independent. It's not in the law. It's not in any statute. The Fed is given this, quote, unquote, "independence" because they have to make some unpopular decisions sometimes.

- [Narrator] On the campaign trail, Trump has suggested a different approach. - I don't think I *should* be allowed to order it, but I think I have the right to put in comments as to whether or not interest rates should go up or down.

- [Narrator] Here's how much influence a Trump White House could exert over the Central Bank and its ability to steer the world's largest economy. - Fed history is actually quite interesting. - [Narrator] That's Richard Clarida, who Trump appointed

in 2018 to serve as Vice Chair of the Central Bank. - The Fed is a creation of Congress and has been given a specific statutory mandate to achieve price stability and sustain maximum employment. - [Narrator] Clarida was in the room when the Fed made many

of the rate decisions that Trump criticized during his first administration. - I just did not observe, and really, if you look at historical transcripts, you really don't see evidence of Fed discussions being political. - [Narrator] That independence is key when it comes

to setting the federal funds rate, which is the rate that banks pay for overnight borrowing. When rates go down, it becomes cheaper for households to borrow and spend and for businesses to invest in hiring and equipment. There's always an incentive by lawmakers,

by presidents, to goose growth now.  There's an election to win. Let's try to get the economy to be as hot as it can. Well, if you let inflation get out of control, you need somebody who will come in and remove the punch bowl from the party

when the party's getting started. - [Narrator] During Trump's campaign, some of his allies quietly drafted proposals to revamp the Fed and the White House's ability to influence its decision-making, people familiar with the matter told "The Wall Street Journal."

Some of his advisors, particularly those from Wall Street, have told him it's a bad idea to try to interfere with the Fed. But there are other advisors around Trump who have said, "Look, the Fed shouldn't be some independent island.

They should answer to the executive branch." - [Narrator] At the time, Trump campaign officials distanced themselves from the plan, saying it didn't come directly from Trump or the campaign. The President's power to influence the Fed

really runs through the appointment process. - [Narrator] The Fed is made up of three components: the 12 Federal Reserve Banks across the US, each with their own bank presidents. Then there's the seven-member Board of Governors

in Washington, D.C., with each member appointed by the President. And then there's the Federal Open Market Committee, a 12-member voting committee made up of the governors and a rotating cast of Fed presidents. - The membership of the committee, which, by statute,

has to affirmatively vote on monetary policy, is set by statute. It does not include the President. It does not include the Treasury Secretary. The law requires decisions to be made by that constituted committee. - The main way that the President of the United States

gets to control the Fed is by designating a chair. - I have nominated Jay to be our next Federal chairman. - And filling the board with governors when the seats come open every two years. Other than that, it's very hard to influence the Fed

outside of the appointments process. - [Narrator] Trump's ability to immediately alter the Fed through appointments will be limited. In his first term, Trump managed to fill five Fed Board vacancies within his first year in office. Of the current board members, two were appointed by Trump,

but now there's only one seat set to open in the next two years. - It could be harder, unless people leave their terms early, for Donald Trump to put people on the board who will do what he wants them to do.

- [Narrator] One of Trump's most high-profile appointments will come in May 2026, when Powell's term as Fed Chair expires. - Trump will have options. He could promote an existing governor that he appointed last time, Michelle Bowman,

or Chris Waller, to make them the chair. Or he could pick somebody who isn't currently on the board. It's possible that you could have a Fed Chair that says, "I'm going to take President Trump's views into the boardroom

when setting interest rates." - The Fed Chair has one vote on that committee of 12. When you start to talk about scenarios of the Fed potentially moving policy in an undesirable direction, that would require an affirmative committee vote. - [Narrator] Trump has publicly disapproved

of Powell's performance, and at one point in 2019 likened him to Chinese President Xi Jinping. It remains unclear whether Trump has the legal authority to fire Powell. - Will you try to replace Jerome Powell? - No, I don't think so. I don't see it.

But I think if I told him to, he would, but if I asked him to, he probably wouldn't. But if I told him to, he would. - [Narrator] And Powell has made it clear he doesn't intend on leaving before 2026.

- If he asked you to leave, would you go? - [Powell] No. - [Reporter] Can you follow up on, do you think that legally, you're not required to leave? - No. - [Narrator] Trump takes office

at a delicate moment for the Fed. The Central Bank has cut rates twice this fall with an expected third coming out in mid-December. Inflation has trended closer toward, yet still above, the bank's 2% target. - At a broad level, less independent central banks

deliver inferior outcomes, and I think financial markets understand that. If inflation stalls out above the Fed's target, you could get into a situation where the Fed says, "Look, we're not going to be cutting interest rates right now,"

and Trump may not like that. There's plenty of potential for conflict to resurface between Donald Trump and the Powell Fed. Thank you very much. (energetic pensive music)

How Much Influence Can Trump Have Over Rate Cuts and the Fed? | WSJ

The Wall Street Journal takes you inside carefully selected stories and events in a visually captivating way so you can dig deeper into the news and insights that matter to you. 

The Wall Street Journal

트럼프는 연방준비제도의 독립성과 금리 결정을 비판해 온 전력이 있습니다.

트럼프는 특히 제롬 파월 연준 의장 시절 연준의 조치를 자주 비판해 왔습니다.

그는 연준의 독립성에 의문을 제기하며 법적 의무가 없다고 말합니다.

트럼프는 금리 결정에 대해 발언권을 가져야 한다고 생각합니다.

연방준비제도의 구조, 독립성, 그리고 트럼프의 잠재적 영향력.

리처드 클라리다 전 연준 부의장이 연준의 의회 위임에 대해 설명합니다.

금리 결정에 있어 연준의 독립성이 중요하다는 점이 강조되고 있습니다.

경제 성장을 위한 정치적 인센티브와 인플레이션을 통제하는 연준의 역할 사이에는 내재된 긴장이 존재합니다.

트럼프 측근들이 연준을 개혁하고 백악관의 영향력을 강화하기 위한 제안 초안을 작성하고 있다는 보도가 나왔습니다.

트럼프가 연준에 미치는 영향력 및 파월 의장과의 잠재적 갈등.

연준의 세 가지 구성 요소에 대한 설명입니다: 준비 은행, 이사회, FOMC.

대통령의 주요 영향력은 연준 의장과 이사회 멤버를 임명하는 데 있습니다.

트럼프가 두 번째 임기 동안 새로운 이사회 멤버를 임명할 수 있는 기회는 제한적입니다.

2026년 파월의 후임 연준 의장에 대한 논의.

트럼프는 파월에 대한 공개적인 불만과 그를 해고할 수 있는 능력에 대한 불확실성을 드러냈습니다.

현재의 경제 환경과 향후 트럼프와 연준 간의 갈등 가능성.

최근 연준의 금리 인하와 인플레이션 관리의 어려움.

정치적 압력에도 불구하고 연준이 추가 금리 인하를 거부할 경우 갈등이 발생할 가능성이 있습니다.