유럽의 경제 위기: 도전 과제와 향후 전망

### 유럽의 경제 위기: 긴급한 개혁과 혁신이 필요한 시점
* 📉 최근 프랑스 정부의 붕괴로 유럽연합에서 두 번째로 큰 경제 규모를 자랑하는 **프랑스가 혼란에 빠지면서 유럽 정세의 취약성**이 부각되고 있습니다.
* ⚠ 독일이 파업 중인 폭스바겐 노동자들의 압박에 직면한 가운데, 경제가 미국 및 중국과의 경쟁에서 어려움을 겪고 있는 유럽의 전반적인 분위기는 **위기감**으로 가득합니다.
* 💶 유럽이 지난 수십 년간 미국 경제의 성장률을 따라잡았다면 **프랑스의 총 GDP와 맞먹는 연간 3조 유로**를 추가로 창출할 수 있었을 것입니다.
* 💻 저명한 경제학자 마리오 드라기는 유럽이 경쟁력을 회복하려면 특히 **반도체와 태양광 패널 같은 첨단 기술 분야에 매년 수천억 유로**를 추가로 투자해야 한다고 경고합니다.
* 🚗 전기차 혁명에 적응하기 위한 폭스바겐의 고군분투는 **기술 혁신과 생산성에서 뒤처진 유럽이 직면한 광범위한 과제**를 잘 보여줍니다.
* 💔 프랑스의 높은 부채와 재정 적자 문제는 경제적 어려움을 가중시키고 있으며, **정치적 해결 없이는 프랑스가 회복하기 어렵게 만들고 있습니다.**
* 🤝 프랑스와 독일의 상호 의존성은 **EU의 경제 안정에 매우 중요**한데, 두 나라 모두 경제가 번창해야 나머지 블록을 지원할 수 있기 때문입니다.
* 📊 달러 대비 유로화 가치가 계속 하락함에 따라 정치적 격변의 위험이 커지면서 **유럽 경제를 강화하기 위한 구조적 변화**가 시급하다는 점이 강조되고 있습니다.

낮은 생산성과 불충분한 기술 혁신으로 인해 취약한 유럽의 경제는 중대한 개혁 없이는 더욱 쇠퇴할 위험이 있습니다.

The news for Europe just keeps getting worse. The French government collapses, plunging the EU's second-largest economy into turmoil. France's political upheaval in December offered another glimpse at fractious European affairs. Germany is under pressure, and Volkswagen workers are striking hard. In my view, we are

already in a crisis mood. Our former model is over. If we follow our classical agenda, we will be out of the market. I have no doubt the EU's economy is now fighting for survival and struggling to keep pace with the US and China. Had the

European economy grown as fast as the American economy over the past couple of decades, we'd have been generating three trillion EUR of extra income every year. That's roughly the equivalent to the total GDP of France being routinely added into the economy. Europe needs to have a digital-era economy with

companies that challenge those from China and from the US. Without that, the region is at risk of being unable to afford to protect itself in a world where security is no longer guaranteed. It's just a very tense moment for the world, and Europe's at the center of

[Music] This is one of the most consequential figures in global economics, and in September he sounded an alarm: Europe is weak, very weak. Mario Draghi will this morning deliver his long-awaited report on what Europe must do to regain its competitiveness. Mario Draghi is a highly

respected economist, former president of the European Central Bank during one of Europe's most difficult times, and also led Italy through another challenging period. He's become a figure that you look to in times of trouble. His report warned that the US and China were innovating so

Expeditiously, Europe needed to invest hundreds of billions of euros extra every year to compete, possibly to survive.  The "druggy plan" got the conversation started, and then, of course, there's Trump, and then, of course, there's China, and then there's a war in Ukraine

and a war in the Middle East. The conclusion was: Europe has been stuck in a rut, and if nothing changes, if the current trajectory is maintained, then Europe will probably account for less than a tenth of global GDP by 2050, which points to Europe having a much

diminished role in the global economy in years to come. Increasing productivity is one of the solutions to this. It doesn't mean making people work harder; it means that for the same amount of work, a person creates more value. To appreciate the challenge, let's quickly examine one of Europe's most

iconic traditional industries: Italy's olive business. It's worth billions of euros. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government wants the industry to grow and help the country reduce its mammoth debt burden. It's why olive mills received tens of millions of euros in post-pandemic EU aid granted

to Italy. Some farms spent their share upgrading their machinery. [Music] Productivity is one of the best ways to grow an economy because it means that for the same amount of work, a person creates more value. And as important as olives are, cultivating them isn't as productive

as developing semiconductors or solar panels—two things the US and China prioritized years ago. We haven't taken frontier technologies and dispersed them through our economy in a way that would raise incomes and raise our efficiency. So, by being left behind, we

are now poorer, and we're just not keeping pace with American productivity. Which is what led to the estimate that the EU economy is 18% smaller than it may otherwise have been, and that's equal to a shortfall of about 3 trillion euros. And why? One reason is the EU's...

massive investments in transformative start-ups. We don't translate technologies at the cutting edge into new businesses, and we don't have hugely successful technology companies in anything like the way that the US does, or even China to some extent. One reason is we don't have great venture capital

markets here. Most of the world's really big companies have been funded via this actually quite tiny asset class in Europe that sort of didn't happen. Part of it also is regulation. Europe really believes in regulation; that's not a bad thing, as I'm always told when I'm

in Brussels, is what we're doing is a blueprint for everyone else. But if you put it all together, you have a situation where you're not encouraging growth. We are behind everywhere else in the world. When people talk about billions, they sound like large numbers, but now we're

talking about trillions in terms of the valuation of tech companies. Just take the biggest US ones over the last couple of years; if their combined value was a country, it would have the third biggest GDP in the world, after the US and China. I think people are waking up to

the fact that Europe really is in trouble because not only does it not have the tech platforms, but the digital era is eating into everything, as we're seeing what's happening in Germany with the car industry, for example. That electric cars are fundamentally digital-era products. Volkswagen is at the...

At the center of this difficult transition, it's still Europe's biggest car maker and one of the EU's industrial engines. But it didn't prepare for an electric vehicle revolution, or that it would be led by an American startup called Tesla and later rivaled by China. VW became emblematic of Germany's

struggle. What VW is trying to do is close up to three factories; we're talking about tens of thousands, potentially, of job cuts. Meanwhile, Germany's neighbor is politically and financially deadlocked. France has a number of problems; high debt is one of

them. The deficit is very wide, so that's the gap between what the government spends and what it brings in in tax revenue. That's huge, and it's proving very difficult to tackle. It's also over what the EU even allows, which is this 3%

of GDP. France was well past that this year and is forecast to be for some time, and it makes investors more apprehensive about buying French debt. That's what this line shows: the higher the line, the riskier France is judged to be relative to the traditionally very

safe Germany. And in December, that risk was the highest it had been since 2012, when Europe was in the midst of a debt crisis, which is just compounding the fiscal difficulties that it faces. So, until there is a political resolution, it's hard to see the French economy

turning around. People are waking up to the fact that France is facing a potential debt crisis, and Germany, on the other hand, is facing a potential employment crisis where it won't have the same number of workers producing the types of things that Germany has made itself famous for, and that impacts the

The whole of the European Union... I really don't think Europe can do anything without France and Germany agreeing and doing well. You need those two economies to push everyone else, and everyone else trades with them, so we have no options; we need them to do well together.

This is the state of Europe that Mario Draghi rang the alarm about: the bloc is too reliant on traditional industry, too unproductive, too uncoordinated, and too averse to risk. This fractured political landscape, in which countries look to protect their own interests over those of the Union, makes change difficult, so...

What's next? Where do we look for warning signs or silver linings? The Euro against the dollar is a good diagnostic for where Europe is being left behind. It's trended downward and traded at equal value only a handful of times. But to command geopolitical weight, you need a...

big economy in dollar terms. So crossing that parity threshold is a worrisome indicator for economists and politicians. A fall to parity could embolden populist politicians who oppose the currency, raising the remote but real threat of another Brexit-like event. Germany's right-wing AfD party said it's planning...

an election campaign advocating this. But experts, including Draghi, have stressed that change, however difficult, is possible. Cars, machines, robots—this kind of precision engineering required to create this kind of hardware is something Europe is traditionally very, very good at, particularly Northern Italy, Southern Germany, Switzerland—these...

places that are very, very good at making things very well may play a pivotal role in where we produce high-quality technological goods going forward. [Music]

Europe's Missing Trillions

Bloomberg Originals offers bold takes for curious minds on today’s biggest topics. Hosted by experts covering stories you haven’t seen and viewpoints you haven’t heard, you’ll discover cinematic, data-led shows that investigate the intersection of business and culture. Exploring every angle of climate change, technology, finance, sports and beyond, Bloomberg Originals is business as you’ve never seen it.


Bloomberg Originals

유럽의 경제 위기와 변화의 필요성

프랑스 정부 붕괴와 독일 노동자 파업은 유럽의 경제 상황이 악화되고 있음을 나타냅니다.

EU 경제는 미국 및 중국과의 경쟁에 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 이로 인해 잠재적 소득이 크게 감소하고 있습니다.

유럽은 안보와 경제적 안정을 보장하기 위해 미국과 중국의 경쟁자들에 도전할 수 있는 기업이 있는 디지털 시대의 경제가 필요합니다.

유럽은 경제적 취약성으로 인해 전 세계적인 우려의 중심에 서 있는 긴장된 순간에 직면해 있습니다.

드라기 보고서와 유럽의 경쟁력

마리오 드라기 총재의 보고서는 유럽의 취약성과 경쟁력 회복을 위한 대규모 투자의 필요성을 강조합니다.

이 보고서는 미국과 중국의 빠른 혁신에 경쟁하기 위해서는 매년 수천억 유로의 추가 투자가 필요하다고 강조합니다.

우크라이나 전쟁과 기존의 경제 문제와 같은 요인이 유럽의 침체에 기여하고 있습니다.

현재 추세가 계속된다면 2050년에는 유럽의 전 세계 GDP 점유율이 10% 미만으로 떨어질 수 있습니다.

생산성을 높이는 것, 즉 같은 양의 작업으로 더 많은 가치를 창출하는 것은 경제 성장에 매우 중요합니다.

이탈리아의 올리브 산업은 EU의 지원이 일부 농장의 기계 업그레이드에 어떻게 도움이 되었는지 보여주는 사례이지만, 첨단 기술 분야에 비해 전통 산업이 가진 한계를 강조하는 사례이기도 합니다.

올리브 재배는 미국과 중국이 우선적으로 투자하고 있는 분야인 반도체나 태양광 패널 개발보다 생산성이 떨어집니다.

유럽은 첨단 기술 도입이 늦어지면서 미국에 비해 소득과 효율성이 낮은 결과를 낳았습니다.

기술에 대한 투자 부족과 그 결과

EU의 경제 규모는 혁신적 스타트업에 대한 투자가 부족하고 성공적인 기술 기업이 부족하기 때문에 예상보다 훨씬 작습니다.

제한된 벤처 캐피탈 시장과 규제는 기술 부문의 성장을 저해합니다.

미국 기술 기업의 막대한 기업가치는 글로벌 기술 시장에서 유럽의 뒤처진 위치를 잘 보여줍니다.

유럽의 기술 플랫폼 부족과 자동차 산업과 같은 다양한 산업에 영향을 미치는 디지털 전환은 상황을 더욱 악화시킵니다.

사례 연구: 폭스바겐과 독일의 도전 과제

폭스바겐의 전기차 혁명에 대한 도전은 디지털 시대에 적응하는 독일의 도전 과제를 잘 보여줍니다.

폭스바겐의 잠재적인 공장 폐쇄와 일자리 감축은 이러한 전환이 고용에 미치는 영향을 강조합니다.

프랑스는 높은 부채와 대규모 재정 적자 등 정치적, 재정적 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.

독일 부채에 비해 프랑스 부채와 관련된 위험이 증가하고 있다는 것은 투자자들의 불안감을 나타냅니다.

프랑스와 독일의 상호 의존성과 향후 전망

프랑스와 독일의 경제적 안녕은 유럽 연합 전체에 매우 중요합니다.

마리오 드라기 총재의 경고는 유럽의 전통 산업에 대한 의존도, 낮은 생산성, 조정력 부족, 위험 회피를 강조합니다.

분열된 정치 환경은 필요한 변화를 방해합니다.

달러 대비 유로화 가치 하락과 브렉시트 같은 사태가 발생할 가능성은 추가적인 위험을 초래할 수 있습니다.

유럽의 전통적인 강점인 정밀 엔지니어링 분야는 고품질 기술 제품을 생산하는 데 중요한 역할을 할 수 있습니다.