심각한 재정 위기에 직면한 미국 주 정부

### 미국의 재정 위기: 다가오는 예산 재앙
* 💰 미국의 주 정부는 심각한 재정적 어려움에 직면해 있으며, **27개 주에서는 의무를 이행하기에 충분한 자금이 부족**한 것으로 알려졌습니다.
* 🏦 코네티컷, 뉴저지, 일리노이주가 가장 큰 피해를 입은 주 중 하나이며, **일리노이주는 시카고 대중교통국 및 공립학교와 같은 필수 서비스를 구제**해야 하는 동시에 상당한 적자로 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.
* 📉 10년 초에 약 8,000억 달러의 연방 지원을 받았던 각 주에서는 팬데믹으로 인한 흑자가 줄어들면서 **예산 부족**을 겪고 있습니다.
* 📊 2022년 연방 보조금은 주정부 지출의 **38%를 차지**했지만, 이러한 연방 기금에 대한 의존도는 **2026년에 만료될 예정**이므로 장기적인 지속 가능성에 대한 우려를 불러일으킵니다.
* 📅 최근의 경제 호황기에 각 주에서는 감세와 지출 확대를 시행했지만, 재정 부채, 특히 **일리노이와 뉴저지와 같은 주에 부담을 주는 연금 의무가 증가**함에 따라 많은 사람들이 이러한 조치의 경제성에 의문을 제기하고 있습니다.
* 💸 연금 부채는 **매년 7%의 비율로 증가**하고 있어 교육 및 의료와 같은 중요한 공공 서비스에 사용할 수 있는 자금이 크게 제한되고 있습니다.
* 🌪 기후 변화와 인구 고령화 같은 미래 위험에 대비하기 위해 많은 국가가 **경제 침체에 대비한 재정 건전성과 회복력을 평가하기 위해 스트레스 테스트**를 실시하고 있습니다.
* 📈 일부 주에서는 재정 문제에 적극적으로 대처하고 있지만, 여러 주에서 **1조 3,000억 달러에 달하는 연금 부채**가 재정 안정성에 큰 위협이 되고 있습니다.

많은 주 정부가 연금 부채 증가와 연방 지원금 만료로 인해 의무를 이행할 자금이 부족하여 심각한 재정적 어려움에 직면해 있습니다.

State governments in the US are running out of cash. After meeting our obligations, we have very little money left. One count suggests that 27 states lack the necessary funds to pay their bills. The problem is most prominent in states like Connecticut, New Jersey, and Illinois. Not only the city of Chicago, but the State of Illinois is running straight into a brick wall in terms of its finances. The City of Chicago is facing a $1 billion deficit. The state is facing a massive deficit while also needing to bail out things like the Chicago Transit Authority. Chicago Public Schools is asking for a bailout. The state cannot afford these things. States received about $800 billion from the federal government to kick off the decade. That spending obscured long-running issues. What we're seeing is largely a return to Earth from those pandemic surpluses. You know, we saw a big increase in income taxes.

There was really like a bit of an economic boom. States now are working with tighter budgets as the country's population and infrastructure ages. Even economically powerful states see trouble ahead. To the degree that the states are relying on federal aid, it becomes a daisy chain of vulnerability. State governments account for 15% of the nation's economic output, and they employ 13% of the US workforce. So why are so many state governments going broke? And what can they do to repair their finances? State governments pay for much of the nation's systems of education, health care, transportation, and public housing, but they receive tremendous amounts of help from the federal government to do that. In 2022, federal grants covered 38% of total spending from state governments. That was a bit more than usual. During the pandemic, we saw a lot of one-time revenue.

A lot of one-time expenditures that kind of had the effect of obscuring these long-term challenges that states faced. The ensuing economic boom strengthened state coffers and increased revenues. The increase in revenue helped state leaders lower taxes and increase spending. We, you, all of us together delivered both the largest tax cut ever by a huge margin and the largest increase in teacher salaries in our state's history. We understand that that's, you know, something that is politically palatable, particularly in the time of an election. It is something that if those receipts decline, we may see some future imbalances between, you know, expenditures and revenues that states will have to correct. Virtually every state made a tax cut. In some cases, this is a very intentional plan for states to spend down these unexpectedly high revenues. On the other side, this could really reflect, you

know, tightening budget conditions and states needing to draw on those dollars to help make ends meet right now. But the federal funds given to states will run out in 2026 as a cost of living crisis hits many parts of the country. For too many, the cost of living is too high. The higher cost of living is making some state leaders consider tax relief. That includes places like Wyoming and North Dakota. Statehood that do well are North Dakota, Idaho, South Dakota. And what these states really have in common is that they have a relatively limited fiscal footprint. Many policymakers across the states, they did pretty well managing the pandemic era budget surpluses. A huge looming question out there is around the long-term affordability of the tax cuts and spending increases that were enacted. State governments also have to manage long-running financial liabilities. There are states like Illinois, Connecticut and

New Jersey. While these states really have accumulated a lot of debt after the great financial crisis, the main reason for their weak fiscal stance is the pension obligation. Roughly 86% of public employees receive pensions. These are retirement plans that provide guaranteed income for life. State and cities, in order to attract public servants, may be paying them less money than they would make in the private sector, provide generous pensions, and they ended up getting behind. If pension liabilities are fully accounted for, as many as 27 states lack the money needed to pay their bills. What goes a little bit under the radar is that pension liabilities are an extremely expensive form of debt. The portion of that pension that is unfunded increases by 7% every single year. This debt leaves states with less money to fund public programs. So we're talking hospitals. We're talking about roads.

We're talking about schools. Take Illinois, for example, which owes money to former employees but has less than half of the funds raised to pay them back. We've seen analysis from JP Morgan that says in order to actually fund these enormously generous promises that were made decades ago, you would have to double the state income tax overnight in Illinois. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker has steadily kept spending on areas like roads in addition to education. Penny by Penny. We are still working together, saving important things for our state. This requires tax increases to balance the budget, but that option may not be available to a state like Illinois, which already has relatively high tax rates. Using taxes to raise additional revenue is limited. Higher taxes tend to make people move, especially top earners. That's according to studies on states like California. When the marginal tax rate increases by 3%, California

loses about 0.8% in the tax base in the top income bracket. That's actually substantial, because it's like 1% of the tax base in the very high bracket, which for the most part accounts for the majority of tax revenues overall. Moving forward, state governments must respond to emerging risks like more extreme weather, an aging population, and migration. Migration, I believe, is going to be one of the biggest issues that will face the country. In the 2020s, many Americans moved from high tax areas into states like Florida, Texas, and North Carolina. Coincidentally, those states that have those low income taxes, of course, they are attractive because of the climate, but they also have a high degree of climate risk. That's where it gets - it's going to be a real test for politicians in terms of managing a state budget. Florida, for example, has drawn many people with its

lack of state income taxes and business-friendly policies, but it sees risks ahead. Florida is being challenged by a few factors that may be outside of policymakers' control. Within Florida's long-term budget assessment, they actually highlight Medicaid as a growing fiscal concern for the state. And, of course, climate change and hurricanes hitting the state of Florida is a real concern. The federal government generally handles over 75% of disaster-related costs. Agencies like the Federal Emergency Management Authority or FEMA could quickly run out their budgets and require further funds from Congress. I think anyone that's relying on FEMA to be leading the response, that is not the way proper storm response is. There's a great concern of what that future risk is to the federal government, and that FEMA always becomes the bailout for people who haven't planned. It's a big number that's being presented to the

taxpayer. Ultimately, nearly all counties in the United States are exposed to some sort of climate hazard. I don't think people always associate a rising number of heat days with climate. I think the Midwest being exposed to extreme heat can compound other hazards, which can be particularly impactful to agriculture. Crop production in the Midwest does contribute to that gross state product. You know, we've seen a lot of food inflation over the last couple of years. Right now, the market isn't pricing in climate risks into securities, into municipal bonds. And so this becomes a future potential bill for state and local governments. Even in North Carolina, where Helene went up and disaster struck. You know, could anyone have really anticipated that you need to check on your health of your infrastructure and can it withstand a severe stress test? The largest banks have to do stress tests coming out of

the Great Recession. There's a similar concept that states actually do. At least 20 states review their financial strength by conducting stress tests or long-term budget assessments, and all 50 are developing rainy day funds. These savings are used during economic downturns. Some states, like New Jersey, Montana, and Illinois, have very low savings in these funds. Other states, like Wyoming and Alaska, could finance their operations for months. Alaska is a very resource-rich state. A lot of its tax revenue is derived from oil prices and what's called severance taxes on that energy production. It really is a double-edged sword for a state like Alaska, as well as other states like North Dakota and Wyoming. This dependence on oil prices and on those severance taxes has really become unsustainable. The point of optimism is that we're seeing more and more states do their assessments, do their

homework to understand whether they are on a fiscally sustainable trajectory these days. For example, the state of Maryland found budget gaps in its long-term assessment conducted in 2022. And to the state leaders' credit, they focused on finding longer-term solutions by raising revenue and some spending cuts. This trend has contributed to strong credit ratings for states across the board. When you're in a healthy condition, right? That's when you're supposed to be planning for adversity and not reacting to it. This is really an opportune time for those issuers who are in geographic areas of high degrees of climate risk. The level of annual issuance of municipal debt may have to double from about 400 to 450 billion to between 800 and 900 billion annually for the assets, the public assets in the US, to be adapted and more resilient to climate hazards. 68% of investment advisors in the United States see

public debt as the top economic issue to the country. I don't think politicians have any plan really to solve this in Illinois, and we saw a hint of this actually during the pandemic. Illinois was going to Congress asking for a $10 billion pension bailout. That is really the only answer they have, because it's so politically toxic to keep raising taxes on Illinois residents. There are certainly tremendous challenges going forward. And there's still like a $1.3 trillion of pension debt outstanding. So that's that's big relative to, you know, the annual revenues that those states receive.

Why 27 U.S. States Are Going Broke

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코네티컷, 뉴저지, 일리노이주를 중심으로 27개 주에서 청구서를 지불할 자금이 부족한 등 미국의 많은 주 정부가 현금 부족에 시달리고 있습니다.

시카고 교통국과 공립학교와 같은 필수 서비스를 구제해야 하는 상황에서 재정 위기는 더욱 악화되고 있습니다.

연방 지원은 2022년 총 지출의 38%를 차지할 정도로 주 예산에 중요한 역할을 해왔지만, 팬데믹으로 인한 일회성 수입과 지출로 인해 장기적인 재정 문제가 가려졌습니다.

2026년까지 주정부에 대한 연방 지원금이 고갈되어 생활비 위기가 초래되고 일부 지도자들은 세금 감면을 고려하게 될 것입니다.

노스다코타나 아이다호처럼 재정 규모가 제한적인 주에서는 팬데믹 기간 동안 예산 흑자를 관리해왔지만, 많은 주에서는 장기적인 재정 부채와 연금 의무로 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.

연금 부채의 미충당금은 매년 7%씩 증가하여 27개 주에서는 청구서를 지불할 자금이 부족하고 필수 공공 프로그램에 대한 자금이 제한되고 있습니다.

과세 기준 손실 및 마이그레이션이 주 정부에 미치는 영향

주 정부는 상위 소득 계층에서 과세 기준의 약 0.

8%를 잃고 있으며, 이는 전체 세수에 큰 영향을 미칩니다.

기후와 경제적 요인으로 인해 플로리다, 텍사스, 노스캐롤라이나 같은 저소득층 세율이 낮은 주로의 이주가 증가하고 있습니다.

플로리다는 향후 메디케이드 비용과 기후 변화로 인한 문제에 직면해 있으며, FEMA의 재난 대응 자금이 연방 정부에 부담이 될 가능성이 있습니다.

미국의 거의 모든 카운티가 기후 위험에 노출되어 있으며, 중서부의 극심한 더위는 농업에 영향을 미치고 식량 인플레이션의 원인이 되고 있습니다.

현재 시장은 기후 위험을 가격에 반영하지 않고 있어 향후 주 및 지방 정부의 재정적 부담으로 이어질 가능성이 있습니다.

이에 대응하여 각 주에서는 스트레스 테스트를 실시하고 재정 회복력을 향상시키기 위해 비오는 날 기금을 개발하고 있으며, 주마다 저축 수준은 다릅니다.

국가 예산의 재정 지속 가능성 및 기후 복원력

메릴랜드의 2022년 장기 평가에서 예산 격차가 드러나면서 주 지도자들은 장기적인 해결책을 위해 세입을 늘리고 지출을 줄여야 했습니다.

미국의 공공 자산을 기후 위험에 적응시키기 위해서는 연간 지방채 발행액이 8,000억~9,000억 달러로 두 배 증가해야 할 수도 있습니다.

투자 자문가들은 공공 부채를 가장 큰 경제 문제로 보고 있으며, 일리노이주는 1조 3,000억 달러에 달하는 미결제 연금 부채와 함께 심각한 도전에 직면해 있습니다.