글로벌 경제: 미국 고용 시장 약화에 대한 시장의 반응

### 글로벌 경제 전망 연준과 BOJ의 결정, 소비자 신뢰도, 시장 기대치
* 🇺🇸 미국 구인 보고서는 **818만 개로 소폭 감소**했지만, 임금 상승률 둔화에도 불구하고 여전히 **견고한 인력 수요**를 보여주고 있습니다.
* 📉 지속적인 실업수당 청구 건수를 반영하는 JOLTS 설문조사에 따르면, **일자리 감소에 따른 실업률 증가 가능성**을 시사합니다.
* 🏦 연준은 이번 회의에서 금리를 동결할 것으로 예상되지만, 시장 상황에 따라 **9월에 금리 인하**를 시사할 수도 있습니다.
* 🇯🇵 일본은행은 다른 중앙은행의 완화 정책과 달리 **금리 인상과 양적완화 축소**를 고려하고 있습니다.
* 🇪🇺 독일의 인플레이션이 예기치 않게 급등하면서 **ECB의 현재 정책 기조에 도전**하고 있습니다.
* 📊 채권 시장은 **10년물/2년물 수익률 곡선이 평평해지는 등 금리 인하 가능성**을 반영해 가격을 책정하고 있습니다.
* 💼 소비자 신뢰 지수는 **현재 상황 지수는 하락**한 반면 **기대 지수는 개선**되었지만 여전히 경기 침체 임계값을 밑도는 등 혼조세를 보이고 있습니다.
* 💻 사이버 보안 회사인 SBE Technologies는 **상당한 매출 성장과 고객 유지를 통해 잠재적인 투자 기회**로 주목받고 있습니다.

미국 고용 시장이 약화되고 소비자 신뢰가 하락하며 연준의 금리 인하 가능성이 시장의 우려를 불러일으킵니다.

it's a global alert. I'm your Steve Van Meter, and thanks for joining me today on our show. Today at 24 hours, this news will stun the world and set markets crashing. I'm going to show you what the world leaders are about to announce and why the markets aren't going to like it. Plus, we have a sponsor of today's show. We'd like to welcome SBE Technologies back. You can find them on the CSSE under symbol CYBT and on the OTC QB under symbol CYBC. They're a cybersecurity company that just posted a year-over-year revenue increase of 693%. And on the back of that, I'm going to show you an incredible chart setup. This is one you don't want to miss out on because the last time we saw this setup, their stock doubled in value. Again, you don't want to miss out. Stay tuned to the end of the show or check out the pinned comment or description for more information. Now, let's head over to Bloomberg where I want to take a look at

what just happened in the US data to set up the move world leaders are going to make tomorrow, and US job openings come in above forecast after upward revision. And this was really something the market was not expecting. We continue to see data out of the regional fed surveys and the purchasing managers index that indicates that hours work are shrinking. We're seeing jobs lost. We even saw in Texas recently that there're having really real struggles in the manufacturing sector as oil sells off. But yet according to the government, we're seeing an increase in job me. But it's the trend that matters and it's not going the right way. Available positions decreased to 8.18 million from an upper revised 8.23 million reading in the prior month. This is something the market didn't like at all. The report still shows their solid demand for workers even though employers have pulled back on high rate and wage growth has slowed. The unemployment rate Rose for a third straight month in June consistent with a recent runup in the number of Americans.

receiving jobless benefits. And what the market really wanted here is to see this report show that job openings were in further decline, suggesting that there could be a near-term Fed rate cut that would really give the market the juice it wanted. The problem is that's highly unlikely to happen now, but let's take a look at what's going on with the JOLTS survey because it's largely a mirror of the weekly continued unemployment claims. You can see as more workers in red hit the unemployment line and stay there, well, what that means is there's fewer job openings, thus continuing the feedback loop in the labor market that puts more and more workers on the unemployment line and keeps them stuck there. You can see that happened again in the global financial crisis and even started to as we headed into the pandemic. And now, while we're not seeing a big increase in continued claims to match the downward spiral in the JOLTS survey, what it suggests is that continued claims are going to head higher. And the reason this is bad news

for the markets well there's one simple chart because there is a strong correlation between the jol survey. Which, mind you, is one of the most inaccurate surveys the government puts out because there isn't a lot of response to it, meaning the government has to fill in the gaps. But then nevertheless, you see the relationship between the equity Market as we look at the highflying NASDAQ 100 shown in red against the jolt survey in blue, and you can see where job openings go means the economy is going and in true with that the equity markets Follow. The Only Exception here is going in the pandemic we see the jol survey start to move lower markets said not a chance once again the markets bucking the trend saying that they believe the economy is booming but the economy itself says not a chance we're not booming at all but if you're looking for an incredible chart set up to get out of some of those big tech stocks you've got and you want to see an incredible opportunity look at SBE technology again.

check them out on the CSC under symbol CBT on the OTC QB under symbol CBCF. Because you can look back here over the last 6 months and you can see the price bottomed here into the supply Zone. Can you imagine if you would a dollar cost average in here right around 11 cents? Well, look what happened. It more than doubled in a matter of a few days. Well, we're seeing that setup again in here, indicating that this would be a wonderful spot to dollar cost average again, looking for another big Catalyst as it drives a stock from this lower Supply Zone up into that upper Zone that could net you a possible 100% return. That's right, double your money. How about that for an opportunity? Stay tuned for more information because now that we see that the jobs Market is getting weaker, that the trend is weaker, that we look at confidence of consumers to get a path of the economy, and the overall confidence ticked up as we look at the conference board here. But consumers are downgrading the presence and I want to see how this

all feeds into the decisions that are coming tomorrow from world leaders because it shouldn't be a surprise. But the reaction of the market is going to be huge as it's likely going to continue to sell off. The present situation index based on consumer assessment of current business and labor market conditions declined to 133.6k from 135.5 last month, indicating consumers less confident while of course the overall index rose. How about expectations based on consumer short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions? This got better, went up to 78.2. And keep in mind though, it's still below 80, the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead. So what we see here is that consumers are in recession mode. That means their spending should drop, and sure enough, that's what the conference board said for the eth straight months. As we turn to zero, had you covered the story as well in the last nine. The headline conference board consumer conference Prince was revised lower in June, suggesting that we're going to likely see the current report revised down next.

month as well. But look at this. What you see here with the present situation, it's no better than it was back, of course, in 2021. And how about for consumer confidence? Well, it's going nowhere, but yet consumers are optimistic, perhaps wondering if it can get worse. Well, the answer is it can. As we look into further details in the report, we see automobile purchases in blue, home purchases in green, and major appliances purchases in yellow, all down, suggesting consumer spending is going to drop. And then what you find out is that where confidence goes, spending follows, and next thing you know, the economy continues to head lower. It'll bring stocks down with it. But the problem is it's not fast enough for the decisions coming tomorrow, the second one of the day from the FED. As we turn to the Wall Street Journal, as investors on alert for fed signals of September rate cut. And that's what everybody is hoping for right now, is there's going to be a cut in September. But if we're looking for a clear kind of evidence at the next

meeting, which is coming tomorrow, that the Fed's going to cut. Well, that's not exactly how it works. The central bank is widely expected to hold its benchmark short-term interest rate steady in a range between 5 and a quarter and 5 and a half percent, a two-decade high, while setting the table to begin a series of reductions at the next meeting in mid. Now, if you're expecting again Fed Chair Dr. and Po to come out and say, Hey, you know what, we know in September we're definitely going to cut rates, they're never going to say that. He's going to allude to the fact that there's still data dependent and they're uncertain of what the data is going to suggest, but there's a possibility that if the data looks and continues to trend, that they would be open to a rate cut. And what this is called is flying a trial balloon, and they're going to do that in the post-meeting statement. As a Wall Street Journal goes on to say, the statement is

heavily debated by the 12 voting members of the Fed's rate-setting committee, and seemingly trivial wordsmithing changes while they're being watched will be meaning and framing the outlook for a September rate cut. And language that acknowledges recent improvement in inflation and a more equal balance of risk, together with any changes to the forward guidance, set the stage for Pal's press conference. There he can elaborate on how officials are approaching the question of rate cuts, and believe me, he's going to get plenty of them. And that's why we're starting to see this negative reaction in the market all of a sudden. Stocks are just coming down, but keep in mind August is, we've talked about on the Sunday show, is one of the worst months for liquidity. Money actually flows out of stocks, so there's an expectation we should continue to see a decline, particularly in election years as we head into November. It's very normal to see a downward move in stocks. But as we now look at why the Fed's

going to fly a trial balloon is to gauge the market reaction. This is really important because the FED doesn't do anything unless the market gives it the nod that it's ready. And how do we know that? Well, we can look at two-year treasury shown in red against the federal fund rate in blue. Let's go back to 2006, and we see two-year treasury yields started to lead the federal funds rate down, and the FED said no, we're not ready to do that. And two-year yields came up, pulled back a second time, and the FED said nope, we're still not ready. The third time, the FED said okay, hey, we're ready to listen here, and next thing you know, they started to cut rates, and two-year yields came plunging down. But looking back to 2019, fed pal didn't wait as two-year yields headed lower and continued to head lower, eventually finally bowed to the pressure of the market and cut rates. This time you look back and you see two-year yields fell as

the market said fed you're going too far. Fed said no, we didn't. We went. We didn't go far enough to your yields. Once again, says we think you're pushing the limit. Fed said no, this time third time is a charm. The FED wants to know what the market expects, and if you see a continued decline in 2-year yield, that will all but bake in the cake a cut for September. So, this is all about the FED suggesting to the markets they're prepared to cut if the markets tell them to do it. We'll find out tomorrow, but the reaction from the equity Market here is likely to be negative. The reason why is because the equity Market knows the US consumer is weak. They can see it in the Jel stated. They can see it in the conference board data, and they're concerned that US consumers without a rate cut over the next two months aren't going to spend, and that's going to make next quarter's earnings look ugly. Several former fed officials and private sector economists have said that all

kinds of arguments justifying a cut in September. That would be better news on inflation and signs of slower spending and hiring that are raising the risk of unnecessary weakness are equally applicable now. And that the Central Bank should cut rates on Wednesday. And that's a wonderful thing about former officials. They kind of realize when you get to a certain point, you need to cut. Because what's going to happen is when the cuts don't work. And I want you to be sure that you understand. They are not going to work. That the FED is going to have to come back out and say, well, monetary policy works with long and variable lags. We don't know how long, but we do know they're long and they're variable. Putting the argument of why didn't you cut now. That's what former officials are saying. They need to react on it because yes, they will probably cut in September. But by then, it'll be too late. And still, top FET officials have signaled they aren't fully confident that inflation is on a

durable trajectory to their 2% Target after the Fed's June meeting. Pal said the first cut would be consequential decision and you want to get it right. That means he wants all the data to back him and all the members of the board. And putting aside the merits of a July cut, most officials have S on a rate cut isn't warranted yet. And there's the key point. He's listening to the market and to his members of the board. As a result, the rate reduction on Wednesday looks panicky and I think it's likely to be unhelpful. This from a professor of the Yale School of Management. And you've got it right because what is suggesting based on the data there's no argument to cut here. Inflation's at 3% of the CBII. It's not at two yet. Now will it be closer to that by the next meeting? Possibly. The JOL survey not telling us any red flags. So everything the Fed looks at, nothing's telling them you need to cut now. And if they do it'll send the

market into Panic. The problem is the market is already starting to panic on the back that consumers are cutting their spending. But before we hear from the FED, we're going to hear from another Central Bank. It's the Bank of Japan as they're going to make a big call on rate and QT Pace. We're going to see the opposite now because here in the US, we know the FED has already started tapering its Bond purchases, which is helping out the US government issue less debt. Maybe this is a soft form of easing, but in Japan, they're about to do the exact opposite. They're not looking to cut rates; many people think they're going to raise them. In fact, some of 14 of 48 economists predict the BOJ's board will raise its rate from a current range of 0 to 0.1%, while almost no one is ruling out the risk of such move. As for QT or quantitative tightening, the bank will outline plans to reduce this monthly Bond bind over a one- and two-year period.

And this is staggering. Meanwhile, we look around the world, central banks are talking about cutting rates, perhaps easing back on their bond purchases. The opposite is happening in Japan. The reason why is for so many years they have tried it to get inflation. Now that they've got it, they've got more than they want. So what you have here is a mismatch of policy. It's going to persist into September. And if you think a 0.1% increase there is going to make a difference, it's not. It could actually destabilize the equity markets there because as long as the FED holds rates high, money is going to flow from other parts of the world into the US. And that is going to constrict, of course, the amount of dollars in the global economy and set up an all-out crash in the markets as Germany's inflation unexpectedly quickens and challenge the ECB. Now the ECB has already met, but look what's coming in September. You're going to see cuts around the board 'cause consumer prices now went up from 2 and a

half to 2.6%, kind of bucking the downward trend. In combined with uneven growth reports showing an unexpected contraction in Germany, the inflation numbers will inform the ECB officials trying to work out whether the economy needs another cut in borrowing cost. Much more data will be available for the next meeting in September, and that's the truth. By September, the global economy is going to look absolutely horrible, and you're going to see cuts across the board. Even the Bank of Japan will likely reverse its path as everybody starts to feel the pressure of what happens when you constrict the creation of credit and the global economy at such severe levels as we've already done. And yet history favors stock and bond bulls alike when the FOMC meets. Of course, not today, doesn't appear that's happening, but the bond bulls are benefiting, but not for long. We think a rallying in treasuries, at least into windy days. FOMC day is likely, according to City Bank strates. Financial conditions in the US have eased on FOMC.

seaweek as pal has generally delivered a more dovish tone than expected. And yes, he is expected to suggest a September cut is coming, but not without the Market's validation, of course. The risk here is when we see the FED cut, it's not once, it's not twice. By the time they get around it and due to the alleged long invariable lags, it means the economy is already spiraling into recession. We have the data to back that, of course. Every Thursday, we'll get new unemployment data to find out if more Americans are hitting the unemployment line. But I can tell you, while everyone's bullish and about stocks fed's cutting rates, it's not at all because what it likely leads to is an inversion of the yield curve. And here you can see in blue, this is a 10-year 2-year, and what this means is, was underneath that black line, it means two-year yields, which are very sensitive to the funds rate, are higher than Market expectations and higher than the 10-year yield when the FED starts cutting.

2-year yields come down. 10 years will follow the rest of the curve. And what that means is we're all but certainly headed into a massive bear market this time. The stock market ignored the cuse of the yield curve, suggesting at first they bought into it, but now saying no. The market's got it wrong. We'll wait till they find out there's not going to be one cut or two cuts but a lot of them, which is then why you need to set up for opportunities to invest in companies like our sponsor of today's show, SBE Technologies. I've shown you an incredible chart on how you can dollar-cost average into this with a potential of doubling your money. We'll show you some more charts, but let's take a review of who SBE Technologies is again. Everything about them is in the pinned comment and description below. You can find them on the CSSE under symbol CBT and on the OTC QB under symbol CYBCF. And here you can see that they have SBOM Studio, which helps its

clients achieve improve cyber security outcomes and a significant return on investment by automating and streamlining identifying and remediating software vulnerabilities. One Global Fortune 500 client of side beat saw a reduction of approximately 500 hours of effort for software-based projects with open-Source components, representing 75% or an estimated $50,000 Us in savings per project. With the key benefits of vulnerability monitoring, automated risk analysis, and Regulatory Compliance, sbom Studio serves a broad range of users in the software supply chain. As a global cyber security company, side Beach is proud to serve the needs of a diverse Blue Chip customer base and is an emerging Pioneer and the most compelling product offering for managing sbom. Let's take a look at some of the recent PRS they've achieved a significant year-over-year Revenue increase of 693. The product is fully built and operational, having validated its approach with 100% client retention. So we see mainly us and European Blue Chip clients. It's estimated 75% of cost save.

per project at large enterprises, the market for ES bomb is exploding in the EU and the US. Federal regulations across industries are forcing new software compliance standards. In fact, large medical device companies use side beats, and if they have trials with top prospects track record states over 85% of clients who trial the product have bought a license. The co was quoted saying the momentum will continue through the end of the year, and that means of course more revenue for side beats and setting up that big move in their stock. The National Security Agency or NSA and the US Department of Defense recommended side beats in a best practices report. The only commercial services featured in its space. And again, you can find side beats on the CSC un symbol CBT and on the OTC QB un symbol Cy BCF. And this is a dollar cost opportunity give we go back to the chart before, and I want to show you the technicals here because as we see that bottoming part here, could you imagine if you would a dollar cost average in over.

this point here, and you see momentum rising off of the relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence, or MACD. It's happening again right now, and so it's setting up an opportunity to be buying in at levels. Now, these charts are showing market open at 11 cents, setting up a move all the way into this upper supply zone right around 22 to 24 cents, which could potentially double your money. And as we zoom into the 30-day chart, you see the volume profile line at 14 cents, sellers just above the current price level, buyers down here in the 11 to 12 and 13 cent level, looking for that big breakout that based on the charts could double your money in a very quick time. But as always with any company we feature on the show, you're under no obligation to purchase their stock. Sure, do your own research before placing any trades. With that, I'm Steve Vanmeer. Thanks for watching, thanks for being fans. Bye now.

Listen Now: In 24 Hours this News Will Stun the World (Markets Will Crash)

Steven Van Metre

예상되는 글로벌 발표 및 시장 영향

세계 지도자들이 중요한 발표를 할 예정이어서 시장에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 보입니다.

미국의 취업자 수는 예상을 뛰어넘었지만 취업 가능 일자리의 감소와 실업률의 상승은 노동 시장과 경제에 우려스러운 추세를 보이고 있습니다.

JOLTS 설문조사의 하락세와 주식 시장과의 상관관계는 실업수당 청구가 지속적으로 증가할 가능성을 시사하며, 이는 시장에 악영향을 미칠 가능성이 높습니다.

잠재적 주식 기회와 연준 결정의 영향

장외 QB와 CBCF의 주식 CBT는 가치가 두 배로 증가하는 패턴을 보여 투자자들에게 잠재적인 기회를 제공하고 있습니다.

소비자 신뢰도가 하락하고 있어 지출이 감소하고 경제에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 이는 주가에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

연준은 당분간 금리를 동결할 것으로 예상되지만 9월 금리 인하에 대한 희망과 추측이 있으며, 향후 결정은 경제 데이터 동향에 따라 달라질 수 있습니다.

연준의 금리 결정 위원회는 9월 금리 인하 전망에 대해 열띤 논쟁을 벌이고 있으며, 금리 인하가 이루어지지 않을 경우 시장은 부정적인 반응을 보일 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

연준은 시장의 기대치를 측정하기 위해 2년 만기 국채 수익률을 면밀히 모니터링하고 있으며, 하락세가 지속되면 9월에 금리 인하를 단행할 가능성이 높습니다.

전직 연준 관리와 경제학자들은 미국 소비자의 약세와 불필요한 경기 약화 위험에 대한 우려를 표명하며 금리 인하를 지지하고 있습니다.

연준의 금리 인하 결정과 일본은행의 다른 접근 방식

미 연준은 시장의 패닉에도 불구하고 7월 금리 인하를 주저하고 있는데, 이는 데이터가 이를 강력하게 뒷받침하지 못해 득보다 실이 더 클 수 있기 때문입니다.

반면 일본은행은 예상치 못한 높은 인플레이션으로 인해 글로벌 금리 인하 추세와는 반대로 금리 인상 가능성을 고려하고 있습니다.

이러한 중앙은행 정책의 불일치는 시장 불안과 미국으로의 자금 유입으로 이어져 글로벌 경제에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

인플레이션 수치가 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향

6%로 상승하면서 하락 추세를 거스르고 ECB가 차입 비용의 추가 인하를 고려하도록 압력을 가하고 있습니다.

FOMC는 비둘기파적인 입장을 취하고 향후 금리 인하를 시사할 것으로 예상되지만, 여러 차례의 금리 인하가 경제에 미칠 잠재적 영향이 우려되고 있습니다.

실업률 상승과 수익률 곡선 역전은 경기 침체 가능성을 시사하고 있으며, 이는 곧 약세장으로 이어져 전략적 투자 기회에 대한 필요성을 제기하고 있습니다.

사이드 비트의 SBOM 스튜디오가 사이버 보안에 미치는 영향

Side Beat의 SBOM Studio는 소프트웨어 취약점 식별 및 해결을 자동화하여 고객의 시간과 비용을 절약하도록 지원하며, 포춘 500대 기업의 한 고객은 프로젝트당 75%의 비용 절감 효과를 보고 있습니다.

이 제품은 NSA와 미국 국방부를 비롯한 글로벌 조직으로부터 인정을 받았으며 매출이 크게 증가하고 있습니다.

이 회사의 주식 가치도 잠재적으로 두 배가 될 것으로 예상되어 유망한 투자 기회로 떠오르고 있습니다.