The magic number is 270 electoral votes. To gather all 270, if we secure Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the Democrats will win. So far, Michigan and Wisconsin have performed quite well, and the other crucial state is Pennsylvania, which has the largest number of electoral votes in the world. As long as we secure Pennsylvania, we are continuously visiting it. As the Harris phenomenon becomes more visible, areas that were previously stagnant are starting to move, creating new battlegrounds. There are states that could shift from Republican to Democratic, including North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and possibly Nevada as an additional one. If we secure Pennsylvania along with these new states, the Democrats will be in a position to win the election, making Pennsylvania the primary focus.

Many experts have said that it will be over in three days. In this process, there was a presidential election, right? Can we see a new wave? The key perspective of investors is whether interest rates will start to decline significantly. There are good opportunities ahead. Now, regarding international affairs and investments, we can see the boiling world of investments in the high-quality economic content created by Meritz Securities and ProTiga. You can find it on Meritz Securities' YouTube channel. 

Now, let’s welcome our guest, Professor Kim Jin-ha from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Department of Language and Diplomacy. Welcome! Hello! It's nice to meet you. I see that you are currently appearing on The Boiling World of Investments with Meritz, right? Yes, has everything been properly arranged for the discussion?

Is it fun? It covers various issues, including global topics. So, among those issues, I’m trying to figure out which direction would be more helpful for investment, and you interpret that well. So, the professor really excels at analyzing the situation, but investment is a bit ambiguous for me; I don’t know that part, but you integrate it well. I’m learning how others are making money. Oh, is that so? I understand.

Now, there is an event that will greatly impact our stock market and even the global stock market: the U.S. presidential election. So, it's a simple question—who is it going to be? Well, we still have two months left, and we don’t know what variables might come up. Given the current situation, who is in a slightly more advantageous position?

It would be helpful to know what voters consider more important and what key variables will play a significant role moving forward. For now, we can think of the period leading up to the party convention in August as a warm-up phase. This is a time to solidify the support base within the party. Starting in September, the actual race is said to begin. A turning point will be Labor Day on September 2nd, which is crucial for the working-class vote in the United States. Labor Day will feature various events by unions, which will integrate with the campaign. The focus will be on how to elevate the support that has been built so far. Additionally, there are still undecided voters who haven't made their choice yet, and the period to attract those votes will be in September and October. Therefore, we still need to observe how things develop.

So far, Harris's approval rating has been on the rise. When comparing June to August, her approval rating has increased by about 13%, which is a very positive trend. In the U.S., especially among Democrats, surveys show that the willingness to vote positively has increased by about twofold. Therefore, what is more important in this election is the voter turnout. When comparing 2016 to 2024, there was a female candidate back then as well, but the voter turnout was quite low. The reason was that candidate Clinton had a high approval rating as an elite figure, even though she was a woman. Consequently, the voter turnout was significantly low. However, now Harris does not have that...

Since we don't have the images, it's true that the voter turnout among women is expected to be much higher. Recently, there has been a significant increase in support for women, and if we track the funding, about one-third of women are new contributors. This means that there is a considerable interest among women regarding political donations and how much funding each campaign receives. In the case of the Paris campaign, the fact that two of the new contributors are women indicates a strong level of engagement among women. During the convention, we often heard the term glass ceiling. I think I mentioned before that American society is quite conservative, making it difficult for a female candidate to become president.

What I mentioned is that the American society is aware of this kind of atmosphere. So, when we talked about breaking the glass ceiling, we compared 2016 and 2024, and there are different candidates this time. Additionally, there is an issue that wasn't present in 2016: the abortion issue. With abortion, there are various entangled factors, such as whether there is a clinic in your state, whether you can buy contraceptives, and whether the priority is women's health or how many months along a pregnancy is. These factors are all intertwined, which is why many states are still fighting over the abortion issue. Harris has been fighting for abortion rights for a long time, and this has become one of the elements that stimulates women's votes. However, regarding abortion, there has been a recent development with Trump.

Candidates also say, I have never opposed this. It's too sensitive. What this means is that we need to look at it in two ways: one is the abolition of the federal court's recognition of nationwide abortion rights, and the other is that states will decide for themselves. So, the first decision is about the abolition, which grants autonomy to the states. Regarding this first point, President Trump says, I did well, claiming that he appointed conservative judges to facilitate this abolition. Depending on what one focuses on, opinions can be divided into those who support or oppose this. In the past, there was a federal law that prohibited states from banning abortion, but the Supreme Court has now said, No, that shouldn't be the case; this is a matter for each state to decide.

So, the recognition of reproductive rights means that the rights have been acknowledged, and the federal government has now formalized that, with the Roe v. Wade ruling being the catalyst. However, as that ruling was overturned, it is no longer under federal control, and each state government is tasked with creating new standards. For example, if the Supreme Court made a ruling and a president, regardless of who it is, tries to change that, can they do so? That would require another ruling from the Supreme Court. This means that related bills and everything else would have to be restarted, leading to a legal battle. That doesn't seem easy. Anyway, there is one issue, and I think it will help encourage more women to vote, and a significant portion of those votes will likely go to Harris.

It seems like what you're saying is that it is possible to see this. However, I personally feel that there is a bit of a bubble-like sensation regarding the current popularity. This is just my individual impression, but during the vice presidency or even before that, I didn't feel that Harris had such a strong presence. There was a sense that people thought, Yeah, the vice president did quite well, but it might be good to consider someone else next time. Or, If it's Harris, she could definitely be presidential material, but that feeling has not been consistent. 

Now, when Biden says, I’m not going to run anymore, it seems like that momentum could continue, but I don't think that has been the case with the perception of Harris. So, while the popularity is rising and gaining momentum now, as former presidents come out and support, it feels like it has been a bit different.

Is Harris really someone who has the influence to continue that story? I have some doubts about this. Many people have different interpretations regarding Harris. Before the early primaries, she stated that she would not run, and if she had entered the competition freely, we can certainly question whether Vice President Harris would have been elected. If she had run, there would have been many more attractive candidates, and the primaries would likely have been much more interesting. However, since she entered the race too late, the sentiment now is that we must unite through Harris. This is not just about supporting Harris; it is about uniting against Trump. Such sentiments clearly exist, and this anti-Trump sentiment is not only present in the Democratic Party but also in the Republican Party.

There are significant cracks forming right now. You may have seen the convention, where very prominent anti-Trump figures came out and gave speeches. They stated that the Republican Party is transforming into something resembling a religious group and that Trump is a very dangerous person. As they mentioned, there is indeed a movement within the Republican Party that is firmly against Trump, advocating that Trump should not be allowed to continue. Additionally, well-known past presidents like Bush and candidates like Kasich are showing their discontent. This is happening against the backdrop of a new faction led by Trump, Trump Jr., and J.D. Vance, which is emerging and dislikes the traditional conservative base of the Republican Party. They are pushing against the established powers within the party.

The truth is that important figures were not invited, which has caused a rift. Recently, when looking at various statements, there have been many remarks that deviate from the traditional principles of the Republican Party. Because of this, there are voices within the party suggesting that a Harris ticket would be better to preserve democracy. These factors are collectively creating a very interesting phenomenon. However, there is also a counter phenomenon happening. For example, many companies in Silicon Valley, which could be seen as traditional Democratic supporters, are supporting Trump. Additionally, Kennedy Jr. is also supporting Trump. On one side, there is support, while on the other side, there is opposition. Isn't this just how things are? This unpredictability is particularly notable this time around.

It seems that there is some perspective on this. Ultimately, what is important is that we need to focus on the battleground states. This is because, nationally, the divisions have already been established. So, we only need to look at three states. First and foremost, the three most important states for the Democratic Party are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This is because the places that are leaning Democratic have already gone that way, and the places leaning Republican have also made their choice. Therefore, the votes from both sides are clearly separated. Currently, the Democratic Party has 226 electoral votes, while the Republican Party has 29. This is the current score. Now, the magic number of 27 electoral votes will determine the outcome. To gather all 270 electoral votes, if the Democrats secure Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, they will have it made. So far, Michigan and Wisconsin have performed quite well, and then there is one more place.

Pennsylvania has the largest number of electoral votes among the three Pennsylvanias. Therefore, if we secure this state, we will continue to visit Pennsylvania. Recently, the Harris phenomenon has become more visible, causing previously stagnant states to become competitive battlegrounds. New battlegrounds have emerged, which could potentially shift from Republican to Democratic. These include North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and additionally Nevada. Nevertheless, aside from these four new states, as mentioned earlier, if we secure Pennsylvania, the Democratic Party could win the election. This is why there is likely to be the most interest in Pennsylvania. What are the main industries in Pennsylvania? Typically, we consider the workers of various companies, and we are focused on the workers.

In order to capture those workers, we need to target this industry, and we will provide various strategies to do so. The manufacturing sector is very active here, and there is also mining. As a result, many unions are concentrated in this area, particularly in universities. Yes, it’s not just Pennsylvania; there are many universities here. So, the unions that gather here are crucial in terms of how much they can increase voter turnout, and these factors play a significant role. Recently, Pennsylvania has become extremely important, which is one of the reasons we predicted that Vice President Harris would choose the governor of Pennsylvania, Shapiro, as her running mate. Therefore, capturing Pennsylvania is essential, especially since Ohio has already been secured by J.D. Vance, making it very important to focus on Pennsylvania. Ultimately,

While selecting a running mate for Walt, it's important to note that Minnesota isn't particularly significant in terms of electoral engineering, but what was most important, as I mentioned earlier, is the unions. The support from national unions was crucial for the Walt candidate. Pennsylvania is important, but Shapiro is Jewish, and if a Jewish running mate were chosen, it could potentially divide the Democratic Party and the Republican Party over Middle Eastern issues. 

Additionally, it's crucial to manage Michigan continuously, where there is a significant Arab population. This area often sees a lot of protests regarding Middle Eastern issues. The risk of choosing a Jewish running mate in Michigan was substantial, which is why a safer choice was made with Tim Holt as the running mate. Ultimately, the center of all discussions remains Pennsylvania.

Yes, there are many questions regarding Pennsylvania's industries. It seems that there are many in the pharmaceutical sector as well as in metals and machinery. Pennsylvania is indeed one of the more developed states in the U.S. In fact, due to tax-related promises, there seems to be a widening gap. Since we are already discussing the economy, what would be preferable? For example, Trump is currently advocating for tax cuts, suggesting that the shortfall in tax revenue will be compensated by collecting from China through tariffs. However, Harris recently proposed tax increases, particularly targeting unrealized gains of the wealthy. From the perspective of Pennsylvania voters, if corporate taxes are reduced, even if indirectly, there is a possibility of wage increases.

Whether they like it or not, my salary isn't increasing, and I think taxing the rich would be better for me. I wonder if they might prefer Harris a bit more. Pennsylvania is one of the unique states because it is very sensitive to the economy. Compared to other states, Pennsylvania has a notable rise in the cost of living, which makes it very sensitive to inflation. However, regarding inflation, there are more concerns about Harris than Trump. As you mentioned earlier, the tax cuts for the wealthy, which are currently at 21%, are proposed to be lowered even further, indicating a policy to collect less money. If less money is collected, especially from the wealthy, that proportion will increase significantly.

A federal budget deficit is expected to occur because the government is unable to collect enough revenue. When a budget deficit arises, it can naturally lead to inflation and various economic vicious cycles. If the federal government lacks funds, it means that the Biden administration, which has been driving the economy by continuously investing in infrastructure and spending money, will no longer be able to do so. This situation will have a significant economic impact. On the other hand, Harris is opposing this by suggesting that corporate taxes should be raised to 28% or even higher, arguing that this could prevent some of these issues. Secondly, regarding trade, there are plans to increase tariffs universally, such as a 10% tariff, and a 60% tariff on China. This means that, simply put, when we think about trade with many countries...

Conflicts are clearly arising, and one aspect is that predictability is significantly decreasing. If the overall prices of incoming goods rise, it means that the prices of imports will all increase, which sufficiently impacts the manufacturing sector. This, in turn, directly affects inflation, which could lead to further inflationary pressures. For this reason, Wall Street has expressed considerable concerns about Trump's policies. In Pennsylvania, Harris might have a slight advantage over Trump. However, what is interesting about Pennsylvania is that the governor is a Democrat, and both senators are also Democrats. Even so, despite being a stronghold for the Democrats, the fact that it is being shaken means that the Democrats are trying to secure Pennsylvania in any case.

It's very complicated. In the previous election, the Democratic Party was favored, but there have been fluctuations. Therefore, it's uncertain how things will turn out now. Additionally, Harris did have some campaign promises regarding tax increases, but there hasn't been much messaging on how to improve the economy. The reason for not discussing economic issues specifically related to health is primarily because she needs to cover for Biden's economic criticisms, so she keeps her distance from those topics. In reality, during the Biden administration, there were many job creations, such as 800,000 manufacturing jobs and 300,000 energy jobs. However, the overall perception of the economy has significantly declined. Therefore, if we evaluate based on economic trust, comparing Trump and Harris shows that...

It's always a situation where former President Trump wins. Therefore, there are definitely aspects where we hold back on discussing economic issues. However, starting this week, we will launch a new economic advertisement. This advertisement will criticize the tariffs mentioned earlier and will announce that we will begin tax reductions for the middle class. This new economic campaign will be significantly launched by the Harris team starting today. 

In a recent CNN interview related to the economy, three points stood out, all of which are about Biden's government policies. They asked, What will you do differently than Biden? and it seems there wasn't much change proposed. Moving forward, we need to develop a more concrete policy, but for now, we have put forward three key points. The first is related to newborns, which includes a tax deduction of $6,000, and then there is the issue of newly purchasing homes.

The first point is that there will be a deduction of $25,000 for people, and the third point is somewhat unusual; there is a bit of controversy surrounding it. This is because, with prices being so high, they want to tackle price gouging. Particularly in the case of food, the meat market in the U.S. is close to an oligopoly, so there are many companies trying to take advantage of the situation. The price of new products is very important, and they have stated that they will control the prices of new products at the federal government level. The first question is whether this is even possible. The second issue is that the Democrats have not reached an agreement on this matter. Thirdly, for this to become law, they must persuade the Republicans and pass it through Congress. The passage of this proposal is uncertain, and the idea of the government controlling prices in a democratic country seems a bit too radical.

이제 좀 조정하는 측면들이 필요할 것 같습니다. 네, 저는 그래서 그게 약간 해리스는 아마 그런 거에 대해서 트럼프는 사실 조금 명확해요. 어떻게 하겠다는 것들이 과거부터 거의 뭐 되게 그냥 아, 저 사람은 오로지 미국 하나만 살리고 나머지는 신경 안 쓰는 사람, 이런 게 굉장히 명확한 인식 같은 게 좀 있는데, 해리스 같은 경우는 어쨌든 자신의 조금 탄탄하지 않았던 입지를 높이기 위해서 좀 더 강한 어떤 약속이든, 뭔가 더 진보적인 뭔가를 꺼내야 되는데, 그런 이슈 파이팅을 해야 되는데, 그러다 보면 실수가 나올 수밖에 없고, 아마 그 틈을 트럼프가 엄청나게 지금 노리고 있을 거예요. 이제 9월 10일에 첫 토론이 있는 거죠. 네, 맞습니다. 9월 10일, 다음 주 아마 화요일인가 뭐 그쯤 될 것 같습니다.

It seems that they will primarily argue about economic issues, global security, and diplomacy. I think various topics will likely be included. In the TV debate, Trump will probably come with the message he wants to convey, regardless of what his opponent says; he will just continue to talk about that, boast about his achievements, and attack where necessary. On the other hand, Harris will likely discuss her own policies while mentioning Biden's positive achievements, and she will certainly engage in comparisons with Trump's past performance. The most important aspect is the notion of democracy. Therefore, Trump will be portrayed as a threatening figure, and he will likely create various talking points, including issues related to judicial trials. Ultimately, Trump's points of attack will be...

Economic immigration, especially immigration issues, can be a significant point for attacking the Democrats. In the case of Harris, I can divide the discussion into three main points. One key aspect that needs to be emphasized is abortion, along with healthcare reform. Healthcare reform is particularly important because the candidate has been actively fighting against pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices. I believe this will be a crucial part of the discussion, and it should be elaborated on further. Additionally, we need to address how to handle economic issues and immigration moving forward. One topic that I think they will likely avoid is the Middle East issue. This is a sensitive diplomatic matter, and it's quite challenging to maintain balance in that area.

Because it is election season, a lot of funding from Jewish communities is currently concentrated on both sides. Therefore, we need to firmly address Israel's rights, particularly its right to self-defense. On the other hand, if we consider critical perspectives on the Middle East issues, we must also strongly advocate for the rights of Palestinians. Additionally, based on past actions, there are individuals who place great importance on human rights and humanitarian issues. For this reason, we need to emphasize these aspects while discussing the ongoing ceasefire and the active efforts up to this point. However, it is very difficult to determine how much more emphasis should be placed on these topics. The challenge lies in the fact that criticism for choosing one side or another can come from anywhere, so it is likely a topic that some would prefer to avoid.

I think it might be so. I wish we had a bit more time, but time is running out. Our Professor Kim Jin-ha's words are important. Instead, Professor Kim Jin-ah has that video with Meritz, right? I think Lee Jin-wook was probably hosting it together. So, how about watching that video a bit more? I heard it was uploaded this morning at 8. It’s a video filled with fun and information, so it would be great to check it out. Please watch our video as well as the one with Lee Jin-wook and the Global Money Talk. There’s so much to see. I feel a bit sorry that there’s not enough time, but it can’t be helped. Please find what suits you best among those. Professor Kim Jin-ah, I’ll say goodbye here today, and I hope to see you next time. Thank you very much. What did the experts say?

They said it would be over in three days. In this process, there was a presidential election. Can we expect a new wave of enthusiasm? The key perspective for investors is whether interest rates will start to decrease significantly. It seems like a good opportunity is unfolding. Now, let's discuss the international situation and investments at a glance. Meritz Securities and % TV have created high-quality economic content that reflects the boiling world of investment. You can find it on Meritz Securities' YouTube channel.

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미국 대선 아직 끝나지 않은 이유 f.김진아 한국외국어대학교 LD학부 교수 [인뎁스60]

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