The concern we had has become a reality. Iran has launched a large-scale missile attack against Israel, following Israel's ground operation targeting the pro-Iranian armed group Hezbollah in Lebanon yesterday. This situation has escalated the crisis in the Middle East to a peak. Today, we will discuss this with Professor Seong Il-gwang from Sogang University's Euro-Asian Research Institute. Welcome. 

In our time, it was early morning today when Iran ultimately struck Israel. Although there were no significant damages reported, did you expect this attack from Iran to some extent? I did not expect it at all. In fact, I explained on the broadcast yesterday that there was a fierce debate within Iran regarding whether to respond to Israel's actions. The hardliners insisted that a response was necessary, while the reformists argued that we should endure this situation to have economic sanctions lifted and to establish a new relationship with the West.

We need to create and recover our economy, but ultimately, something happened last night. Iran immediately launched a ballistic missile attack against ISIS. However, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi is known to have a more moderate stance, and although he criticized Iran at the UN General Assembly, there were doubts about whether he would actually order an attack. In the end, it can be said that the influence of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei played a role. As you know, such important policy decisions are not made by the president; they are made by the Supreme Leader. Therefore, we can only see that the hardliners have been favored in this case. The background to this is that Hezbollah is currently collapsing, Hamas has almost completely fallen apart, and Iran is simply watching as its proxy organizations continue to crumble.

If there are any other proxy organizations that have been loyal to Iran until now, they will no longer follow Iran's orders. This means that Iran's influence is rapidly declining, and it is difficult to overlook this situation. Therefore, it seems that a decision has been made to carry out some form of retaliatory attack against Israel. What does Iran hope to achieve through this retaliatory attack? I am curious about the intention behind this attack. Why did they carry it out? Before this attack, there were many caricatures and graphics mocking the two sects, especially in the Middle East, whether it be Shiites or Sunnis. It seems that Iran is being mocked as a paper tiger, indicating that they are doing nothing.

A lot of things have circulated. In this situation, if Iran simply leaves the situation as it is, the influence of Iran in the Middle East, which is already struggling, will rapidly decline. No one will consider Iran's voice to be important anymore. For Iran, and considering that they have already held back several times, when the Iranian general was assassinated, they said they would retaliate, but they didn't. That general was killed in Tehran, right? Yes, that's correct. He was assassinated in Tehran. However, they kept postponing their response. Then, Hassan Nasrallah was also assassinated. Additionally, it wasn't just Hassan Nasrallah who was killed; a commander of the Revolutionary Guard was also killed. In April, because an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general was killed, Israel believed that Iran would not launch a full-scale attack against them.

In Syria, a person who was active there, like Hassan Nasrallah, also died. In this situation, Iran ultimately had no choice but to decide to attack Israel. From Iran's perspective, this is a situation that can deeply hurt their pride. The significance of Hezbollah is also different. Hezbollah is important; as I mentioned, it serves as a safety mechanism to prevent Israel from launching attacks on Iran's mainland, especially its nuclear facilities. If Israel were to attack, Hezbollah would immediately turn the area into a sea of fire. Therefore, Israel would not dare to do so. Hezbollah has been established as that kind of safety mechanism, but now it is almost completely collapsing. However, listening to the remarks, it seems that Iran has finally made a decision to retaliate after enduring so much.

Israel has stated that it intercepted most of the missiles. In the end, Iran's attack was significant enough to exert pressure on Israel and convey its intended message. However, in terms of effectiveness, there was none. Yes, it showed that they could act; it demonstrated that they would not remain passive, but there was no substantial impact. Therefore, this attack will be different from the one in April. I expected it to be a bit more proactive or a more prepared attack. They launched about 180 missiles. In April, they did not launch drones and missiles simultaneously, right? The difference lies in that regard, but they were almost unsuccessful. In this respect, Iran once again had no choice but to save face, showing that they could not inflict any damage, and there was no significant harm done.

There is a situation where there is not much damage. However, as you mentioned earlier, there is a mocking sentiment within the Middle East that Iran is like a paper tiger, trying to show something. The number of missiles, which is said to be 180, is quite significant; it is an enormous number to be considered a threat. There are several targets, but what Israel is particularly upset about is the nuclear power plant located in the southern desert area of Israel, specifically in Dimona. There are reports that missiles aimed at the nuclear power plant were intercepted. Therefore, Iran's intention is clear; they aimed to strike the nuclear facilities. Furthermore, there are discussions about targeting Israeli airports as well. However, the important thing is that airports are areas where many civilians are present.

This means that not only will the airport be destroyed, but many civilians could also die. In any case, since they have acted, there is currently no damage. Now, when we look at these aspects, initially, there was a lot of talk about only targeting military facilities or intelligence facilities, but it seems that civilian casualties could have occurred significantly. From that perspective, Israel is contemplating how to respond and where to strike. It is imperative that they carry out attacks. In any case, Israel has started a limited ground operation; after this attack, will they take a more proactive stance, or will they continue to monitor the situation? Ground operations are not affected at all. They will proceed as planned, completely unaffected by the current situation.

Attacking the heretics only requires fighter jets, so ground forces are not a concern. According to Israel's plans, ground forces will continue to operate. The issue we need to watch closely is how they will respond, where they will strike, when they will strike, and to what extent the attacks will be. After those strikes, will there be another attack from Iran against Israel? If so, what will the level of that attack be? And then, how will the United States respond? These are currently the most important questions. As Israel intercepts, if they do not carry out further retaliation, we will adopt a more cautious approach. However, do you think Israel will still take a more proactive stance? That would be too naive of an expectation. Yes, 180 short-range missiles, and the heavier ones can reach over 700 kilometers.

Because of those actions, there has been no damage. We are currently intercepting very well, so it seems that there is no significant damage. However, the intention behind it was already to inflict extensive damage on Israel. When Israel showed signs of being attacked by Iran, they sent a message through other Arab countries and the United States, saying, Do not attack. No matter how small your attack is, we will definitely retaliate. They also warned that the scale of retaliation could be quite severe. Furthermore, they indicated that if things go wrong, they could target nuclear facilities or the oil facilities that Iran values highly. Iran has now ignored that message and launched an attack. Given this situation, both sides are inevitably forced into a game of chicken.

There is no choice but to wait and see. At the very least, Israel will definitely take action. We need to observe how Iran will respond to Israel's attacks, whether they will carry out another attack or not. When Iran attacked Israel this time, it was actually known that the U.S. had gathered information from Israeli intelligence, and there were indications that Iran had hinted at the attack. Nevertheless, they ultimately proceeded with the attack. I am also curious about the U.S. response. The U.S. likely wanted to avoid conflict, as they continuously urged restraint from Iran, just like in April. This time, however, President Biden made a very firm request. While the situation in April could be seen as a plea, this time it was more assertive.

This time, if you don't hold back, we will not only move but also take action ourselves. This message was conveyed quite strongly. At the same time, significant strategic assets are continuously being deployed underground. From what we hear from Israel, it is clear that not only we but also the United States has stated that if Iran attacks this time, they will take countermeasures. So, Iran has actually attacked, and now the question arises: will we retaliate alone, or will it be in conjunction with the United States? There are discussions about this. Therefore, we need to observe what military measures the U.S. will take in response to Iran's actions against Israel. However, considering that the U.S. presidential election is approaching, it could significantly influence President Biden's position.

There is a public opinion that suggests it's not about saving. What do you think? Of course, President Biden would have wanted to prevent such a situation. However, if you look at the current situation, it is somewhat different from April. President Biden is not actively trying to restrain Israel. He is not sending signals of restraint and is not speaking publicly about it. This indicates that he requested Iran to exercise restraint, but since that did not work, there is no longer any justification for restraining Israel. Therefore, I believe that President Biden thinks this time Israel has crossed a red line. It was a mistake. In fact, it was about the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, and while an Iranian general was killed, that was a secondary issue. Iran turned a manageable situation into a significant one, which means I can no longer prevent Israel from acting.

I feel that kind of atmosphere right now. As you know, Hezbollah has already been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the West. Although Israel is attacking, the U.S. has tried to prevent an escalation; however, if escalation does occur, the U.S. will find itself in a situation where it can no longer intervene. Furthermore, Hezbollah is not a Palestinian nationalist organization like Hamas, which seeks independence, so the U.S. doesn't really have a strong reason to oppose it. In fact, until recently, the U.S. provided maximum support for Israel's defense, but it has shown a somewhat cautious stance. Do you think that, following Iran's interception, there could be a change in the U.S. stance? Yes, I see a slight change in caution, and I wonder why that is.

Has it changed? When the U.S. acts, organizations like Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas have to be dealt with differently. However, the current situation that Israel is showing is that it is effectively suppressing Hamas, and surprisingly, Israel is boldly attacking and suppressing them. So, rather than being oblivious, we might just stay on the sidelines while Israel is doing what the U.S. itself finds difficult to do. Therefore, I think we might be moving towards a direction where we just quietly observe. 

Looking at the situation, President Biden is currently trying to dissuade Prime Minister Netanyahu, but Netanyahu is not listening at all. I am curious about this relationship as well, especially since the election is over.

It's not that a new administration is coming in, but I think the situation will change whether it's Trump or Harris. That's right, of course. However, Prime Minister Netanyahu is hoping that Trump will become president and that he will be the candidate. In any case, he shows a slightly different tendency compared to the Democratic candidate, as he is demonstrating a much more objective and neutral perspective. Therefore, Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to be observing a bit more. Anyway, I am convinced that President Biden's words are not resonating right now. As you know, there's the lame duck situation, and soon he will be leaving office, so Prime Minister Netanyahu is not particularly concerned. We don't know who will come next, but that will be decided in the U.S. presidential election. What he needs to do now is to suppress Hezbollah and then address the rest.

There is a high possibility that they will continue to attack the axis of resistance from other factions. This is because Israel has now shifted from a completely passive stance to a more aggressive operational strategy. They believe they have seized a significant opportunity to attack the Iranian resistance axis effectively this time. Therefore, they do not want to miss this chance. As a result, Israel is likely to launch attacks in various regions; it could be Iraq, and while they are already engaging in Syria, Iraq may be the next target. I see it that way. If Iran responds to this attack with a counterattack, it is expected that attacks on the mainland will follow. If that happens, we can anticipate an attack that exceeds 180 ballistic missiles. Currently, the discussions from the Israeli side suggest that there are two possible targets: nuclear facilities or oil facilities. How...

보면 정말 치명적인 곳이잖아요. 예, 그렇습니다. 핵시설은 이란이 가장 아끼는 것이고요. 이런 핵시설이 하나만 있는 것은 아니지만, 어쨌든 다양한 핵시설이 있습니다. 이 핵시설을 공격한다는 자체가 이미 큰 의미가 있기 때문에, 거기에 대해서 상당히 반감을 가질 것이고, 또 어떤 대응 공격을 하겠죠. 원유 시설은 지금 이란의 경제를 뒷받침하고 있는 가장 중요한 산업입니다. 안 그래도 어려운 경제 상황인데, 원유 시설을 공격해서 수출을 못 하면 이란 경제는 상당히 어려워질 것입니다. 이번에 대통령이 당선된 것을 보면, 국민들의 여론은 사실 경제 제재를 좀 풀고 우리도 좀 더 잘 살아보자라는 의미가 있었던 것 같습니다. 이런 국민들의 성향은 어떨까요? 그렇습니다. 국민들은 당연히...

A new president has been elected who advocates for reform and openness, which clearly reflects public sentiment. It seems that the conservative ruling powers would prefer to move towards reform and openness as well. However, to align with this sentiment, they should have effectively restrained themselves from making aggressive moves this time, but they could not do so. Ultimately, while the top leader tried to gauge public sentiment, it is important to note that public opinion is crucial. Currently, we cannot overlook the declining influence and status of Iran in the Middle East. If Iran's position continues to weaken, it could pose a risk to the regime. Furthermore, conservative citizens have perceived Iran as a strong military power, capable of making bold statements against Israel, which they have come to expect.

Without taking any action, it seems difficult to avoid such a collapse. So, I think that's the decision that was made. This complicated situation in the Middle East has been continuing chaotically for a long time. Despite that, do you see the current situation as somewhat different from the past? Yes, the current situation is indeed different. After the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip last year, there were many questions about how the escalation would unfold and how long the war would last. It is heading in a completely unexpected direction. At that time, you mentioned that it could be over soon, but then I faced many difficulties. Now, look at the remaining scenarios for Israel and Hamas. The direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran is actually the worst-case scenario. But we have come this far, of course.

I hope it doesn't come to that, but we are currently in a very dangerous situation. Moreover, the United States or the international community needs to step in quickly to address this. If it falls into an uncontrollable situation, even though Iran and Israel have been keeping their distance, if they continue to exchange missiles and ballistic missiles, the negative impact on our economy will be quite serious. However, when Israel and Iran engage in direct conflict, their capabilities, or rather their offensive power, are somewhat similar. Israel is indeed superior in terms of offensive capabilities, and Iran lacks an effective air defense system, making it easier for Israeli fighter jets to conduct attacks. However, Iran also possesses a significant number of ballistic missiles, and they have not yet used all of them. If they continue to launch missiles, Israel will also have to defend against them.

There are limits, so it is possible to avoid that bloodshed. In that situation, I am a bit concerned that countless damages may be produced. Ultimately, the role of the mediating countries among the empires will be important. I believe we need to find a way to resolve this. The United States is showing slightly different nuances right now, but I think behind the scenes, they are making efforts to soothe both sides and encourage restraint. Countries like China and Russia, as well as others, should continue to intervene to prevent both sides from falling into the worst state of armed conflict. 

The Israel-Hamas war has now reached its one-year mark. This means it could potentially last even longer. I believe that the war will continue until at least the presidential election, and we don't know who the next U.S. president will be.

If efforts are made to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, there may be some results. However, given Prime Minister Netanyahu's current stance, it seems that it will be difficult to end the war. Regardless of the situation, it appears that in order to eliminate the organized Hamas, the military will need to remain in Gaza and continue guerrilla warfare at least until next year, even if they maintain a minimal troop presence. Understood. This has been a discussion about the Middle East crisis with Professor Seong-gwan. Thank you. Thank you.

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