Right now, there is a bit of a decline, and it doesn't seem to me that the drop is over. Of course, it could be that this was the bottom and we could see a real rise from here, but I think that would take some time. Looking at the chart, it shows that from this point to that point, it rose for quite a long time—almost a month. It rose for a month, and then after just two days of adjustment, it went up again. That would be an incredible market situation, but in the current atmosphere, I think it's difficult to be that bullish. Anyway, I believe that usually, we need to renew the low points and see the RSI rise to indicate an upward trend. Currently, the decline is too deep, and since the RSI is quite low, it might drop once more. 

Hello, this is Seong Jeong-gil. The current time is 5:56 AM on October 2nd. I woke up a bit early today.

I woke up and was surprised to see the charts; the decline has suddenly deepened. So far, it has only dropped to the range I was thinking of, but what happens from here is more important, right? I would like to discuss that part. Let's take a look at the recent trends. Lately, I have been focusing a lot on the hourly charts. I don't usually do short-term trading; I tend to look at how things will go in the medium to long term, so I primarily analyze the hourly and daily charts. Based on that, let's analyze the situation. This point here, around 4,000, is significant, but since the decline was deep at that time, it seems reasonable to see it starting to rise from there. If you look at the descending channel here, you can also see that an ascending channel has been well established.

If you copy and paste this here and place it above, you can see that the channel is beautifully created. The upward channel usually breaks out of the room. An upward breakout is an extremely bullish case, so it’s quite rare. It generally breaks downward, so if the upward channel has been broken, entering a downward channel can be seen as natural. Also, when I often check the Fibonacci retracement, typically the 0.8 or the 0.5 yellow line, or the green line here, tends to decline to these levels. Now, we have already surpassed the yellow line, so the next target is the 0.5 level. This area has a lot of resistance around 59k to 60k, around 59,000 to 60,000 dollars, where there is a significant amount of sell orders.

It seems reasonable to say that we've seen a bit of a decline up to this point. Of course, there is a possibility that this is the bottom, but personally, I think we might drop a bit more. It's not out of the question. I believe we could fall to around 59k or so. As for the reasons behind this drop, I'm not entirely sure myself. In fact, it's really difficult to pinpoint the exact cause. However, I noticed that there are some major news events happening. It seems that this has led to a significant drop in the stock market. One plausible reason could be the report that Iran has launched missiles at Israel. I must admit that I don't have much interest or knowledge about the situation in the Middle East, but I watched a video by Shuka yesterday. It mentioned that Israel is targeting high-ranking officials of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

I saw something about an assassination. They completely destroyed the bunker and it seems like everyone died. Was this retaliation? Also, in Iran, the religious leader has called for martyrdom, indicating that retaliation is expected. That anticipated retaliation has now been launched. They fired 200 missiles. From our perspective, if North Korea were to launch missiles at South Korea, it would almost be a declaration of war. However, it seems that in the Middle East, the sentiment is a bit different. Launching 200 missiles is not considered a war. What they refer to as war requires at least ground troops and infantry to be involved for it to be seen as a full-scale war. This seems to be viewed more as a retaliatory strike. In any case, Israel has killed leaders and armed group leaders, and in retaliation, they launched missiles. That’s where we stand.

Fact is, the fact that Israel launched missiles of this caliber indicates that it is still a military power. I think most of them were likely intercepted. Reports say that there were huge explosion sounds in the skies over Tel Aviv and similar areas. It might be the sound of these missiles. Anyway, there is this issue at hand, and it seems to be escalating. Honestly, I doubt anyone is watching my broadcast for political reasons. So, if you are watching my broadcast live, or if you are currently watching my video, then the question is, what will happen to the price of Bitcoin? That's what we are curious about, right? Therefore, let's focus on what the future holds for Bitcoin prices. As always, I pay close attention to the RSI indicator. There was a significant drop during this time, which caused the RSI to decrease considerably. In fact, it even...

Now, looking at the hourly chart, we are in an oversold zone, a state of fear. As you can see, the hourly chart does not frequently enter this fear zone. About a month ago, there was a similar situation here, and it turned out to be a very good position in hindsight. Therefore, I think we might see a further drop until we reach such a position again. Of course, this could be the lowest point, and we could bounce back immediately. However, typically, when entering the oversold zone, we often see one more drop. It did drop again during this period, and after entering the oversold zone, it usually drops at least once more, or there might be no drop, and it could bounce back right away. So, I believe there might be one more bounce. Especially with the RSI having dropped significantly on the hourly chart, it would be ideal if we could bounce back right away, but...

Of course, suddenly the price of Bitcoin has really dropped a lot. It has fallen by about 14 to 15 percent. If it has dropped this much in just one hour, we can say it is a significant decline. So, I think it could drop a bit more. After that, there will be a brief rise, and following that, it might drop again, lowering the bottom further, possibly breaking slightly below $60,000. If it drops significantly, it could fall to around $58,000. I believe there is a possibility of one more drop. This is my main scenario. Even if there is one more rise, I see it as likely that it will drop again before going up. Since we've seen a decline, I think it's reasonable to expect an upward movement, but I consider this a secondary perspective. The chance of a sudden drop from here is about 10 percent or even lower.

It is possible, but I hope you manage the risks. As for me, I plan to trade if an opportunity arises, based on my perspective. Investing in Bitcoin is quite challenging. Just when it seemed to be rising, a correction occurred. However, those who watched my broadcast know that I mentioned this was inevitable, given the significant rise; a correction is somewhat expected. I was contemplating whether to enter the market at this point. If you look here, there was a kind of divergence, and it touched 236, and there were also resistance levels. So, I was debating whether to enter or not, but typically, a bounce from this point happens when the situation is really bullish. Given the current atmosphere, it's hard to think that it will go extremely bullish, so I decided to wait at least until this point.

I was waiting, but suddenly, missiles were launched from Iran, and it dropped significantly. Now that it has come down this far, it seems there is a possibility of it dropping even closer. I remember reading in a trading book that there was a saying: when you think it’s the right time, wait a bit longer. We often feel very impatient; I certainly do. But when there’s a drop, I think this must be the bottom, and I get anxious and want to act. However, during such times, it usually drops again. The difficulty in trading is that when you think it’s the bottom, it often goes down one more time. Even when it seems really safe, it can drop again. The same goes for when prices rise; just when you think it has gone up enough and decide to sell, it often continues to rise two or three times more. So when it drops...

When it drops, it's important to set a stop-loss line from a trading perspective. It's crucial to adhere to the stop-loss line and to take partial profits when the price rises. Sticking to these principles is difficult, but it seems important. Anyway, right now, the market is declining, and it doesn't look like the drop is over to me. Of course, this could be the bottom, and we might be on the verge of a strong rebound, but I think that will take some time. Looking at the chart, it has risen quite a bit from here for almost a month. After a month of rising, there have only been two days of correction, and then it goes straight back up. That would be an incredible bull market possibility, but given the current atmosphere, I think it's hard to be that bullish. Anyway, typically, the price needs to update the lows, and the RSI should rise to indicate an upward trend.

I think that Divergence is currently experiencing a significant decline, so it could drop further since it has come down quite a bit. I believe there will be some rebound here, and then it might drop once more before moving upward again. That's how I see it. You can make your own judgment. It's already October, and we were hoping for this month. In my opinion, based on the survey I conducted last time, I think there’s a possibility that we could break through the one hundred million mark in the fourth quarter. Many people seem to be anticipating this, and if you look at Twitter or the news, most people expect a breakthrough in the fourth quarter as well. I feel the same way. The first opportunity might be around the third week of October, and even if it doesn't happen then, I believe we could surpass it by November.

There is a report that the presidential election will be held on November 5th. After the election on November 5th, I’m not sure what time it will be in our country, but it seems like it will be around November 6th. I think there will be another opportunity from around then until about November 10th. So, what I’m considering is that there might be a rise in the third week of October and right after the U.S. presidential election in early November. It seems we might challenge the 100 million mark again during that time. Regarding the missile launch in Iran, I have no idea how things will unfold. I’m not knowledgeable about international affairs at all. If, like last time, a conciliatory atmosphere is created, things might wrap up quickly, but for a while, there might be some back-and-forth exchanges. Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, seems quite aggressive. I don’t think he’s someone who would easily back down. I wonder how it will all turn out. In any case, it seems a bit...

Last night, there was a significant change due to the missile launch, so this morning I checked the charts to see what was happening and turned on the broadcast. I will wrap up today's broadcast here shortly. I hope you all have a great day. Thank you.

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이란, 이스라엘에 미사일 발사! 급락한 비트코인 어떻게 될까?

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