Yes, it's Friday morning, August 2nd. Let's start the Issue Radar. Reporter Shin In-gyu, hello. Hello. Yes, there are a few very important issues today. There's the consumer price index, which is related to Samsung Electronics and LG Display. We will take a look at it. First, the CPI. It is the consumer price index based on last month in Korea. Today, the inflation rate will be announced. Yes, the market's estimate of the inflation rate has increased by about 2.5% compared to a year ago, which is currently a key point in the market. That's right, it's 2.4%. So far, from April to June, the inflation rate compared to the previous year has been gradually decreasing from 2.7%, and it may increase a bit this time. Looking at it compared to last year, of course, being in the mid-2% range is quite risky. It's unlikely to touch the interest rate at the current level of movement.

It seems that you should look at it, and another thing to consider when looking at inflation this time is whether it will be directly linked to interest rates. If you ask if this will become an interest rate variable, I don't think it will be to that extent. Because countries like South Korea and Canada, where there are many mortgage loans in the middle of household loans, it is a bit difficult to change monetary policy based solely on consumer prices. Therefore, rather than viewing the inflation that came out this time as an indicator of interest rates, it seems that it should be viewed as a barometer of the economy. There may be some variables. Stability is expected at around 2%, but agricultural product prices are a variable because of the concentrated rainfall. Regarding agricultural products, there have been discussions. Last July, there were similar discussions, so we need to consider the basic conditions. If there is a lot of rain, prices of products like green onions and onions may be affected.

The current situation is not good, and if it continues like this, prices could rise significantly. There are talks that prices have already gone up a lot based on data this time, and what kind of changes will occur in the data will be one variable. In the case of watermelons, for example, if there is excessive rain, the sweetness decreases, so the price actually goes down. That's right. That's why I'm talking about watermelons, not pears. Anyway, we need to look at the changes that agricultural products may bring about. The international oil price fluctuations in June will actually be a variable in the domestic price data in July because the international crude oil price is delayed by 2-3 weeks, affecting Korea. By the second week of June and the end of June, the international oil price, which is the benchmark for Brent crude oil, rose from $70 to $78 to $87 per barrel, affecting consumer prices in Korea in July.

The situation was like that, so considering that, in July, the oil price-related inflation was not so favorable in South Korea. Looking at it this way, conversely, August seems to be a bit better. In July, the oil price could be a variable that exerts upward pressure on inflation. Yes, in June, the oil price affected the CPI in July. The oil price rose significantly in June, and at that time, the USD/KRW exchange rate also rose a lot, so there is a possibility of easing the burden a bit. Anyway, as I mentioned just now, it's good that inflation is falling now, but from the consumer's perspective, there are concerns about stimulating economic recession. Last night, the U.S. was the same. When I analyzed the FOMC yesterday, what rose yesterday was not only various tech stocks but also the market's interest rates and expectations.

If you flip it over, there could be concerns about an economic downturn, so you should be aware of the volatility for a day or two. I mentioned that. I was lucky to have matched it, but it's not about luck. It has been the pattern in the United States for a while. So, what we need to look at now is these two narratives. Among the stories believed in the market, we need to see which one is more likely and will last longer. In this regard, the U.S. employment report to be released this afternoon Korean time is crucial today. This is because the U.S. unemployment rate comes out with the employment report. The current U.S. unemployment rate of 4.1% is not high in absolute terms, but we need to look at the trend. The estimated figure is likely to show that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.1% in this upcoming employment report without any changes.

If it rises even by 4.2%, as I mentioned at the beginning of this week, it is a social law. On that law, when it reaches 4.2%, in the United States, it becomes a signal of an initial economic downturn. If that happens, concerns about an economic downturn in the market could increase. Because of that, this time, we need to carefully examine both inflation in our country and employment in the United States. According to our reporter, around 9:30 PM Korean time tonight, if the unemployment rate exceeds 4.2%, the signal of an economic downturn will become stronger, which could lead to increased concerns in the U.S. stock market. This is the analysis we have provided. Now, the second issue is about Samsung Electronics. Whether the strike continued in the 3rd labor union or not, it did not have a significant impact on our market. Ultimately, it is confirmed that the strike has ended.

Not having an impact means that if there was no production disruption during the strike period, it means that the union's influence did not manifest properly. Anyway, the nationwide Samsung Labor Union, abbreviated as Jeon 3, announced today that they will end the total strike starting today and return to work, gearing up for long-term battles. Although the strike is ending, rather than calling it the end of the strike strictly speaking, they plan to continue wage negotiation activities through surprise guerrilla strikes and such. There are variables, but only until the 5th, the nationwide Samsung Labor Union's representative bargaining rights are recognized. Samsung Electronics currently has multiple unions. Therefore, after the 5th, if another Samsung Electronics union demands negotiations, Jeon 3's bargaining power will weaken, so please allow other unions to continue negotiating. We are the largest, so please enable us to keep negotiating. This union is talking like this, but there are five unions.

In the middle, there is talk that the union is not listening to what is being said right now, and this could also be a variable. In the short term, the fact that the union's influence is growing could leave Samsung Electronics with long-term uncertainty. Although there were no major changes such as changes in the bonus system this time, the number of union members increased significantly due to this strike. During the strike, the number increased by nearly 6,000, and now the total number of regular union members of the Samsung Labor Union has risen to around 36,000. It is said that more than 30% of the company's employees have become union members. Therefore, it seems that we should keep in mind that Samsung Electronics' union issues and union uncertainties are increasing. This may be a long-term burden on the stock price. Also, the fact that the announcement of the organization reshuffle by Lee Yong-hee, vice chairman of Samsung Electronics, did not sound hot on the same day is another point to consider from Samsung Electronics' perspective.

It would be worth looking into the performance-based incentives that could incur costs. The former chairman also mentioned that this year, more bonuses could be given than initially expected. Yes, this year, the operating profit will probably increase significantly. Anyway, as the labor union issues intensify, it seems natural for concerns to grow from the perspective of our investors. LG Display's stock price has been fluctuating a lot, not looking good. It went down quite a bit. LG Display is reportedly considering selling its LCD factory in Guangzhou, China. That's right. LG Display is showing progress in selling its LCD factory in China. Initially, CSOT from China has been selected as a negotiation partner. Where is this? They are the number one in China's LCD sector, with TCL as the second. This TCL affiliate is in negotiations with CSOT in China. What does this mean? There were many talks speculating that BOE would take over originally.

However, rather than passing it on, it could be interpreted as Bo offering better conditions. This could be the market's interpretation. Selling it at a high price. In order for the second-ranked company to surpass the first-ranked company, they would need to offer more money, which means they would need to invest a lot of capital. Therefore, initially estimated to be in the mid-100 billion won range, the factory sale price could approach 2 trillion won. Various talks like this are coming out now. One area to look at is LGD. Currently, there is a strong focus on strengthening financial soundness. What's happening with LG Display recently is that although news of the factory sale came out this time, recently they have disposed of a significant portion of their stake in partner companies. Originally, LG Display had Yasra or Avatec for various stability reasons.

In this regard, these companies have strengthened stability by becoming major shareholders of partner companies. It is now being observed that they are continuously selling their shares. If this continues, it is expected that efforts to reduce the current deficit size of about 2.3 trillion to 2.5 trillion KRW will be accelerated. Therefore, it is interpreted that the securities industry is anticipating that this year's operating loss could decrease to around 350 billion KRW. If this happens, it is possible to turn a profit next year. This situation where a foundation for this is being established should be noted, according to the securities industry's opinion. Anyway, it seems inevitable for us to continue moving towards the added value side. It's too late to catch up now with LCDs, which are already considered over, and OLEDs, which are now being caught up by China.

We don't know when the deal will be finalized, but anyway, we hope LG Display will gain strength. Now, the last issue is Hanyang Securities. There has been a lot of talk. I checked just before coming in. On July 12th, the stock price was 11,700 KRW, and yesterday it was 15,700 KRW due to acquisition talks during this time. What is the current situation? Yes, that's correct. It seems that today, Hanyang Securities' acquisition negotiator is expected to be announced. It's likely to be Hanyang University Foundation. However, what we need to pay attention to now is that there have been many rumors about a blind auction without any specific bidder, and in the industry, it is already being said that a certain place is a strong candidate. This is related to the management fund.

Yes, it's about parking the management rights for a while and planning to retrieve them later. It's like disguising the sale of management rights and then regaining them at a certain point. In simple terms, when making this contract, we set conditions where we can buy it back, even if we don't receive a high selling price, by putting in some options. In essence, it's like non-financial institution mortgage loans or stock collateral loans for short-term liquidity. There are discussions like this. It's not really about giving up management rights; there must be some connection behind it. However, if that happens, looking at the value of Hanyang Securities, if they end up giving a lot of money to another place that doesn't follow this management rights parking, Hanyang Academy may wonder if they should just sell it altogether. In reality, in the industry now,

Cape Securities is currently in the process of acquiring the management rights of Hanyang Academy from LF. They have offered an amount of money that surpasses the expected value, causing Hanyang Academy to contemplate. If this situation continues, it could mean that if the acquisition is delayed, the stock price of Hanyang Securities may rise a bit, and there is a possibility that the acquisition price of Hanyang Securities will increase. This is because Hanyang Academy has confirmed that there are many places willing to provide funds, and shareholders also think that if the atmosphere is like this, Hanyang Securities could rise further. Banks and securities firms are competing fiercely for acquisitions like this, and the more intense the competition becomes, the higher the possibility of acquisition. This is what has been discussed so far with reporter Shin In-gi.

If you want to keep up with various economic issues, please subscribe, like, and turn on notifications for Issuer Radar. I was AI caster Kwon Mi-jung.

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