How are you thinking?
The landscape changes come January 20th.
Well, let's look at the big picture first.
Some people are saying, 'If growth is slowing down,' nonsense!
One out of five of all cars sold globally in 2024 will be electric or hybrid.

So we're living in a TV world, and it's just moving faster. It's 25% year-over-year growth.
17 million EVs sold globally. U.S./Canada, solid growth, about 12%. China, red hot at 40%.
Are these big stories?

If you talked about Tesla versus BYD, who's going to be the global leader?
And then there's this other issue of U.S. versus China, and how are tariffs going to affect this?
And what people have to remember...

The U.S. has already slapped 30% tariffs on any Chinese car sold in the U.S., but that's virtually none. You've got to ask the question, what happens if the Chinese slap 100% tariffs on U.S. cars or automakers selling cars that...

...happen?
Do you think that's a high risk even for a Tesla?
Oh, look, whenever tariffs are slapped on by one country or another, you've got to expect the other country to respond.
The big question is, is it cars that are...

...already made in that country or just cars that come from the U.S. going to China?
But the punchline is the same. There are a lot more U.S. automakers selling cars into China than vice versa.
So the U.S.

Needs to be careful on this one. And yet we have seen vibes, or whether it be real political clout, driving Tesla's share price up ever since the election results. Has any of this China-U.S. tension been priced in, do you think, Steve?

Well, I think people don't have their arms around it quite yet. So you've got to look at the Tesla share price: 76% growth since January 1st of this year. That's astonishing. The big question is, can Tesla keep it up?

And I think it's going to be tough without getting some new products into the market. Tesla's auto growth this year, after roaring sales growth in 2021 and 2022 of 51% and 70%, is near flat. 

So Tesla's got to get this newer, lower-cost car into the market. There are new rumors that there's going to be a new sub-$30,000 model coming sometime in 2025. But we've got to make sure that's real. So investors have to look at it.

I think 2025 is going to be a make-or-break year. It could see new heights if they can get a lower-cost car out and full self-driving improves. But it also means that if they don't get a new car to market, and sales stay flat, that's going to scare people.

Now, as an investor, Steve, how hard has it been to read the tea leaves? Because we're trying to understand whether they're just going to cut costs of current models on the market and get...

us to some sort of sense of affordability, because Elon just signals time and time again he's more interested in the robotaxi side and the full self-driving side. It's incredibly hard. I mean, the share price going up 75% when sales are flat.

I don't think anybody's ever seen anything like that before. What's going on? Kind of a bet on full self-driving and probably a bigger bet on Musk's relationship with President Trump. What no one's talking about is, very quietly, the energy division looks like

the saving grace for Tesla, 75% year-over-year growth. The other thing investors have to get their arms around is auto companies aren't just auto companies anymore. They're also energy companies, too. And it's a whole new world. You've got to pay attention, got to pay

attention to the politics involved. This week, of course, we saw that again; California is really going to be focusing on ensuring EV adoption, Steve, where you sit. But also we've got a news story around the potential unionization, let's call it subtly, being done with Rivian.

We understand the UAW has reached a kind of secret deal with Rivian to make unionization easier as and when it becomes a profitable company. How much do you think that's a key area, the labor side of things for the EV

space?
Well, look at the labor sites. Huge, because labor costs are going up. This is one of the things that's plagued GM and Ford for years. And what's interesting is Musk is great at pulling out all the stops, making things go faster than any other

automaker, but it still has to deal with unions. And he may be the wealthiest guy in the world, but that's not going to impact how well he wins union battles. German workers potentially out on strike soon, precisely when he's trying to catch up for Q4 sales.

So it's going to be interesting to see if Tesla's auto sales can increase this year. It cannot show year-over-year growth. Gosh, that's going to be a tough one to sell to shareholders. We'll see.

Tesla Needs New Products: Westly Group

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Tesla Needs New Products: Westly Group

Tesla Needs New Products: Westly Group

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