Today, I will explain the semiconductor market and FMC, and also share practical investment strategies. First, regarding the recent semiconductor market, if you watch the video I uploaded three days ago, it will be very helpful. I believed that the stock market could rebound after Microsoft's earnings report was released on July 30. Many of the scenarios I wanted came to fruition, and I traded according to the scenarios I had prepared. The point I want to emphasize here is that I traded based on my initial thoughts up until now. So, how should we respond moving forward? I would like to discuss that again. Specifically, the point I want to make is that I bought semiconductors, and from this perspective, I will explain how I plan to take profits in certain intervals and what my strategy will be.

In this segment, I would like to explain once again whether we should cut our losses at this point. First, let me briefly discuss the recent market situation. There have been concerns that the demand for AI data centers may decrease, which led to a significant drop in stock prices. However, after Microsoft's earnings announcement yesterday morning, AMD's earnings were released, confirming that the demand for AI data centers remains strong. This information, which I believed was necessary, was precisely what I needed. Therefore, I was able to make trades. Around 2:40 PM, the Nasdaq began to rise sharply. An important point during this timing was that stocks of equipment companies like ASML and Disco had been sluggish until then, but around 2:40 PM, the issue arose that allied countries would be exempt from China's semiconductor regulations.

Recently, the stock prices of HBM-related companies, which had seen excessive declines, have experienced a significant rise. In this situation, the momentum of reduced investment in AI facilities has also disappeared, leading to a simultaneous rebound in semiconductor equipment stocks. Consequently, there has been a substantial influx of capital into the AI sector, which became evident after 2:40 PM. 

In my view, the demand for AI data sensors remains strong, and the revenue from data centers has also shown impressive results. Considering these factors, along with the recent excessive declines in semiconductor equipment stocks, I believed that a rebound was imminent. Therefore, I made some trades, and from my perspective now, I achieved a profit of about 10% from yesterday's trading. However, a problem has arisen: the rebound occurred much more quickly than I had anticipated.

We need to rebound much faster than before, so we have to think about this again. The point I am focusing on is that the stock price has risen and fallen not because the fundamentals have changed, but simply because the stock was expensive and underwent a correction, and now it has rebounded strongly because it was cheap. The stock price is fluctuating based on this reference point. Therefore, what is important at this point is that I want to emphasize the importance of checking the momentum. Since checking this momentum is crucial, we need to ask ourselves what factors need to emerge for the price to rise further. We must answer this question. Let me give you an example of how I would respond to this question. For instance, if...

In the case of SK Hynix, even if the AI performance does not come out, it can still reach around 190,000 won when it is below that price. This is my perspective. So, how can I respond? In the case of SK Hynix, the fact that the price is low itself creates a momentum for future increases, and the market will recognize this. Therefore, buying below 190,000 won would be beneficial. So, I would say that I would purchase below 190,000 won. If you can respond in this way, that would be sufficient. 

In fact, until now, the stock price has been holding steady around the 190,000 won mark, and yesterday at 2:40 PM, due to the issue of allied countries replanting, the stock price rose by 3%. This means that the stock price held well at 190,000 won and then surged due to just one positive news item. Of course, today there was bad news. Around 2 AM today, it was reported that South Korea is exporting AI semiconductors to China.

There has been material that suggests regulation could be possible. Therefore, today, even though NVIDIA's stock rose significantly yesterday, SK Hynix's stock has been sluggish due to certain reasons. Similarly, if we take DIA as an example, you must ask what material NVIDIA has that could lead to further increases in its stock price. Ultimately, the best answer would be based on actual performance, as many people are looking at the results. Regarding this matter, I posted a video yesterday. In the case of NVIDIA, the price point of $110 is a crucial benchmark. Let me reiterate, for NVIDIA, the price point of $110 is significant because if revenue growth of around 15% to 20% occurs, it can find support around that $110 level. However, yesterday it broke through $120.

If this happens, the revenue growth rate needs to be around 20%. Therefore, when looking at the earnings of Nvidia, we can analyze how much growth this stock should show in line with its price. However, it has now surpassed $120. This means that Nvidia's revenue growth rate should be in the 20% range. But in my view, even if the revenue growth rate looks good, it will only be in the low 20% range. If Nvidia's stock rises further to $130, then from that point, Nvidia's revenue should show a growth rate of 20% to 25%. However, I find this a bit concerning. Therefore, if I aim for around $1, I can quickly sell and adopt a strategy to exit. This is because when I analyzed Nvidia, I found that if the revenue growth rate is good, it should be in the 20% range.

At the beginning, my perspective on the consensus is that a reasonable price range is about 15 to 20%. However, if the stock price rises to $130, then the revenue growth rate would need to be around 25%, which seems difficult to achieve. Therefore, strategies such as taking profits at $130 and then reassessing based on performance can be employed. Understanding not only the materials but also what the performance signifies makes trading much easier. Although discussing performance can be quite challenging, I continuously share insights in my community and write about them on my blog. For example, I set benchmarks for stocks like SK Hynix, with the first purchase at 190,000 won, the second at 170,000 won, the third at 160,000 won, and the fourth at 150,000 won. This way, I can establish clear criteria based on performance.

The trading points are relatively safe for you to trade, I think. Regarding the performance, I will explain the conclusion a bit more. Next, something you might be curious about is the yen carry trade. To put it simply, the yen carry trade automatically liquidates when the exchange rate touches a certain level. However, the positions for this automatic liquidation were densely concentrated around the 152 to 153 range. In other words, if the 151 yen level is broken, all the amounts that had been set for automatic selling would be liquidated automatically. At that moment, the bonds and stocks that had been invested in would also be automatically sold off. What happens then is that, due to the automatic liquidation, the cash from the stocks and bonds returns to you once again. So, this...

You can use the strategy of paying off loans with the cash you have, or you can buy back stocks or bonds. The point I want to emphasize is that the 15 transition periods, which were very dense yesterday, have been broken. So what happens? Automatic liquidation is completed. Now, think about it: if you have set up an automatic sell order when a certain level is touched, and that level is actually broken, you will be liquidated. What remains in your account? Cash. This cash can then be used for further investments, and you will need to set up another automatic liquidation. That is when the carry trade will start to work again. However, the current situation has already been activated and has been broken. Up until now, there has been a carry trade.

The reasons are that we have touched on areas that we have never touched before, and now that has broken. Until recently, there were carry trades, but now that everything has broken down, everyone has just been liquidated. It has essentially reset. Therefore, unless these people set new liquidation levels, the influence of carry trades will inevitably decrease significantly for the time being. I want you to check on this. Additionally, since volatility has already increased, there is a high possibility that positions related to leverage will also decrease. From my perspective, you don't need to worry too much about carry trades, and I can explain this to you. In fact, if I explain this from the perspective of FX, you will be able to understand it better, but I will skip that part for now.

I will proceed with that. And yesterday, an important topic was the FMC. The first important point was that until now, the focus was on inflation, but now employment is being viewed as more important. The fact that they are starting to look at employment could raise concerns among market participants that this indicates an economic slowdown and that they might not be thinking about controlling inflation. Therefore, the next comment was significant; they stated that the rise in the unemployment rate is absolutely a low figure. What this means is that the economy is just cooling down from being overheated, not entering a recession, so there is no need to worry. Lastly, regarding inflation, they mentioned that our inflation is improving. However, looking at the details, all the conditions for a decline in inflation have been met. So, in September, interest rates...

The content was like this: To summarize simply, the current situation is that the Bank of Korea has shifted its focus from inflation to employment. However, people were questioning whether this means a recession in terms of employment. The Bank of Korea responded that it is not the case. Analyzing the content of yesterday's press conference, it appears that the Bank of Korea is looking at both employment and inflation. The key point here is that while the current employment situation is good, it could worsen in the future. On the other hand, while inflation is currently bad, it could improve in the future. Now, you are the ones making decisions on monetary policy. Monetary policy should be based on future projections, right? However, if employment is expected to worsen in the future and inflation is expected to improve, then you, as decision-makers in monetary policy, must consider what that means for the future.

We need to look and make decisions. Therefore, the Federal Reserve has no choice but to focus on employment, given the current situation. Thus, the key points to focus on in this press conference are how the Federal Reserve diagnoses the employment situation rather than inflation, and how it plans to respond if employment begins to decline in the future. However, from the Federal Reserve's perspective, the first point is that the unemployment rate is at 4.1%. The fact that the unemployment rate is still at 4.1% means that we are not in a recession yet. There was also a second point where they stated that they are not currently considering a 50 basis point rate hike. If we interpret the point about the low unemployment rate, it suggests that it would be acceptable for the unemployment rate to rise a little more. So, if the unemployment rate increases slightly, it does not mean that we are heading towards a significant rise, like 4.5%.

If it’s not skyrocketing, there’s no need to be overly anxious. So, what’s important to check here is that the Federal Reserve has stated that it’s okay if the unemployment rate rises a bit. However, if the unemployment rate reaches around 5%, we might need to start worrying. Therefore, we need to find this benchmark. Currently, they said that 4.1% is acceptable, but we need to determine whether it becomes risky at around 4.5% or 4.62%. You should keep an eye on these benchmarks, and the Federal Reserve will provide guidance on this. They will inform us either through research papers or statements from the Federal Reserve Board members. So, moving forward, by paying attention to the statements from the Federal Reserve Board members or the research papers related to the unemployment rate that the Federal Reserve will release, we can check these important points and establish the benchmark for the unemployment rate, which is crucial for identifying a recession.

We need to isolate the criteria for the economy; this is the action we must take moving forward. Regarding employment, you should consider that when ADP employment falls below 100,000, we need to be concerned about significant employment declines. From an employment perspective, we should worry about a slowdown when ADP employment is below 100,000, but currently, ADP employment is above 100,000. Therefore, it is not a point of great concern just yet. Since there is no data proving a recession at this time, we are not seeing a significant crash in the stock market. Instead, the likelihood of a correction due to overvaluation has increased. However, there is still a possibility that a recession could suddenly occur. If that happens, we may see the potential for a 50 basis point rate cut in the future. Recently, Powell mentioned that he is keeping all possibilities open.

So, there are possibilities of an economic recession in the future. In that case, a 50 basis point interest rate cut may occur. Therefore, the most important thing is that the Federal Reserve needs a benchmark to determine whether to implement a 50 basis point rate cut in light of the economic recession. We will find out what this benchmark is in the future, and I will be uploading content related to these topics. However, these contents may be based on academic papers from overseas, which could make them somewhat uninteresting. As a result, the view counts may not be very high. If the view counts are too low, I might not post them as public videos; instead, I will likely upload them to my blog or membership section. In fact, I already posted some benchmarks regarding the economic recession 13 days ago, but just in case some people haven't seen it, I will organize and update that information and post it again.

So, let me summarize everything one more time. What I wanted to convey to you through this video is, first of all, since I have invested in stocks, I needed to set investment criteria not just for you, but for myself. Therefore, I will ask myself what materials could potentially drive the stock prices higher. I will be looking for answers to this question, and I believe I can find them after the market closes tomorrow. As long as there are no special variables affecting my returns, I think I can adopt a holding strategy until the market closes tomorrow. Even if Apple and Amazon report poor earnings, I have already experienced a performance shock with Microsoft. So, even if the big tech companies report disappointing results, I believe that investments in AI will continue.

If there are statements indicating that AI server-type investments will continue, I believe the stock price could rebound once again. Moreover, since AMD's earnings report was quite good, I think that even if Apple and Amazon's earnings expectations are met, if there are statements confirming that AI growth will continue, the stock price will rebound. However, if during the upcoming conference calls for Apple and Amazon, there are statements like we will not continue investing in AI growth, then it would be wise to sell immediately. I plan to make trades based on such turning points. Of course, the stock price could decline further, but since I have seen some quick returns, I am considering a strategy of holding based on those returns. If the stock price rises, then...

I don't engage in odd-even gambling, but for now, the profitability is secured, and I have a significant amount of cash that can be divided for sales. Therefore, I am considering trying this strategy. 

Secondly, the point is the yen carry trade. Personally, I don't think there is much to worry about regarding the carry. It takes a certain amount of time to set up the re-adjustment periods. In my case, I invested in yen leverage at around 870 won, and if the yen exchange rate breaks 91.10, I will take profits on half of my position. If the yen strengthens further and touches around 920 won, I plan to take profits on the entire position at that level.

Lastly, through the July FMC, I learned that the Federal Reserve is focusing on employment. Depending on the economic recession situation, there is also the possibility of a 50 basis point rate hike in the future.

In simple terms, you can think of it as the Federal Reserve presenting us with a new macroeconomic problem through the FOMC in July. To put it metaphorically, the Fed has posed a new macroeconomic question to us. Through the FOMC in July, the Fed has thrown down the challenge to analyze the upcoming recession as a macroeconomic problem. We will go through the process of solving this macroeconomic issue of recession. From my perspective, there are certain periods that can be defined as a recession, and we need to determine how to trade based on these periods as a benchmark for recession. The process of solving these problems will likely be the content of my videos, and based on this solving process, I will submit answers in the form of various financial products to buy. Then, the market will grade us, saying, Your solution process was incorrect or It was correct, based on the returns.

The financial market will evaluate me either by giving me rewards or by treating me with losses. In this way, the perspective of looking at macro variables and the process I go through are, for me, essentially like solving a quiz, which makes it a fun activity. Therefore, I am studying very enjoyably. It's not about you following me to make profits; rather, I find joy in interpreting macroeconomic factors and showing my own problem-solving processes. As I continue this process, my accuracy rate is increasing, and this is translating into returns. So, I have my own problem-solving processes. I will consider how I will think about semiconductors tomorrow and how I will make decisions. By observing these decision-making processes, I hope you can refer to my methods and make your own decisions.

I think it would be good. In the next video, I will be discussing the recent QRA announcement. I will also upload some explanations regarding bond investment strategies related to this QRA.

어제 SOXL을 매수했습니다. 그런데... '이 시그널'이 나오면 매도 할 겁니다.

어제 SOXL을 매수했습니다. 그런데... '이 시그널'이 나오면 매도 할 겁니다.

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