Welcome back to Plan B on YouTube. So, what's up with this weird sideways bull market? Is it manipulation? Is it something else? Let's discuss this first chart. And, uh, you know, Bitcoin closed September at 63,000, and it's the eighth month in a row that it's in a 60k to 70k trading range. It's really weird, uh, and it never happened before. Normally, the bull markets, yes, it is still in the bull market because it's red, Red Dot bull market, and normally bull market means price go up. Historically, when it's red, when it's bull market, prices went up in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021, but not now. Now it's sideways, and well, you know, I do not believe in manipulation. Yes, it can be manipulation, but not for 8 months. That's something different at work, I think. So, another explanation could be that we had a too early pre-halving pump because of the ETFs, and the halving was somewhere here around

April, and we had a, we even had an all-time high, a new all-time high before the halving, which had now never happened before. But basically, we pumped from the bottom, around 20K to 40K, 60K, 73K, and that is something that's unusual because normally the accumulation phases are quite stable or rising, but not that fast. So yeah, that could be it, a pre-halving too early pump, but surely, and surely, you know, it would have felt different if we had an increase that would go gradually from this 20K to 63K instead of this jump here, this ETF jump, and then flat for eight months, which feels weird. But the same result with a gradual increase would have felt a lot different, although the end outcome would be exactly the same. So what can we see in the moving average chart? The moving average chart is, well, it shows the same thing. It has this eight-month flat period here. Note, by the way,

that the color is different in the moving average chart. It's months until the next halving, not the phase we're in, not the bull-bear market. It's just a timer, and the halving is at month zero. So when blue switches to red, so this is a halving in 2016, this is one in 2020, and this is the latest in 2024. And well, as we can see, there was a flat period in 2015 as well, quite long, more than half a year, I think it's also eight months here. But that was a bear market, of course, at around 250k. More comparable, I think, is this, that period here in 2019-2020, that's around 10,000, little under 10,000 dollars. And also a period with a halving in there, so that's very comparable, I think, to where we are right now because we back then, we also had this pre-halving too early pump, and then Co that.

that that really uh spoiled the party, but it was basically a one-month uh event in the end because the money printer went on, the QE was started, and then that was the trigger for the entire bull market. Of course, Michael Saylor uh uh started buying Bitcoin here, and later Elon Musk um went positive on bitcoin, but that was sort of the trigger, and it's a bit of the same period, same preing pump situation above the moving average. So, this black line, of course, is the moving average, and we use it to smooth out the noise. Um, right now, it's 40K, and Bitcoin for the entire eight months flat period is above that 200-week moving average. Same here in 2019-2020. So, yeah, um, moving average is increasing just like back then. It's still increasing, so as long as it's increasing, it's okay in my opinion. Um, and Bitcoin will find its trigger for the next pump, and I have heard that many large buyers are just

waiting for the US elections in November. That makes sense because why run the risk if you can wait a couple of weeks and have total clarity and uncertainty. And the risk obviously being a Democratic Biden-Harris win, which is bad for Bitcoin. So, whales waiting for the US elections could very well be the reason for this eight-month sideways price movement. Just one explanation. So, we look at SS RSI, the relative strength index. This chart looks a little bit different because I added this moving average, 12-month moving average in there. And the background has this black line in the middle at 65, which is about the average RSI through the history of Bitcoin and the bear and bull markets. Dan around this black line. So, right now the RSI is 63, so very close to this average of 65, this black line. And what we see is that this moving average again smooths out all the noise. And for example, here it was a very clean period where the actual RSI numbers

followed the moving average, uh, track the moving average, I should say, quite well. But here in 200, 13, this bull market was quite noisy, and uh, the moving average tracks right through it. But there is H, there is months way above this moving average, and months uh, way below. And the same is true, for example, for 2019 and 2020. And we talked about this period uh, before at the moving average uh, sheet, and we see it's very, very noisy there. We had its pre-halving uh, pump too early, then a correction, and then of course CO as a kind of well, Black Swan uh, which really put a dent even in the moving average. But the moving average kept rising and rising, and then here in the bull market, it's all on track again. And actually see the same thing right now um, back then. It felt like front-running in 2019, front-running the halving. That was all talk about the halving and and and stock to flow, of course, which was published here uh, so

there was talk about front running. We have that same talk about front running right now um with the ETFs where retail had the opportunity to front run Wall Street uh for the first time. So we had this too early before for the halving uh pump and then of course there was this dump uh after the halving because of government selling Mount Gox selling uh but all in all moving average was pretty pretty stable um and rising. So in my opinion um the flat bull market that we see in the price can be just optics a trend a trend a rising trend disguised by noise and mixed signals because if this were a gradual growth from all the way from from 15 to the current 63,000 bitcoin price then the RSI would be uh not this noisy and uh and we would be not that confused about about this this uh sideways bitcoin price next chart and now it becomes really interesting. This is the Bitcoin realized price so that's like the average cost price of Bitcoin and there's three realized prices in this chart. The

realized price that looks at the whole history price history is uh 32,000 at the moment and Rising. The 2-year realized price that only looks at the last two year and and the Bitcoins that were bought in those two years. The cost price of those Bitcoins is at uh 51,000 um at the end of September and rising. And the Very short-term five Monon realiz price light blue light blue line is at 63 and Rising. Well, it's sort of flat but last month it did rise a little bit. So um I tweeted about this earlier and and I said uh maybe you remember it. Bitcoin is the next stable coin is now a stable coin because of this 8mon flat period. And I also tweeted 60,000 is the new 10,000. Why did I tweet that? Because this 2019 2020 period that we talked about before in the moving average chart and the RSI chart um it felt exactly the same like right now. It felt like boring.

Flatline. Uh, there will never be a bull market again. Stock to flow failed. Uh, Bitcoin is dead. Whatever. Actually, if you go further back, uh, we had that same boring uh, period in 2014 to 2016 at a much lower level, of course. It was uh, about 400, 500 at the time, and even uh, before that in 2012, there was a period where Bitcoin, and also in the bear market, of course, but where that flat period was uh, making people think like there would never be a bull market again. And yeah, this, this is basically my opinion about this flat bull market at the moment. I think Bitcoin is most of the time in a boring flatline situation, and uh, in fact, three of the four years are boring and nothing, and just some very short periods just after the halving um, caused those big jumps in price, those big fundamental and structural jumps in price, fundamental structural because Bitcoin jumps up and does not return, of course. There is a crash after a big pump every time um, but it will never return.

to that original level and uh yeah well so in fact it's it's it's just a matter of some patience and there's even it's even so common that uh that there is a um a meme of this but we we'll get to that later but this stepwise function of a long wait and then a short pump after the halving long wait halving pump long wait we just had this halving that of course is the very basis the core of the stock to flow model nonlinear stepwise and after the halving fundamental uh growth that yeah that that is the signature of the the four-year cycle and the meme that comes with that is come on bitcoin do something and that's a very old meme by the way so it's still valued and and true today and uh so in my opinion the trading range is quite normal the trading range that we're in right now and patience is needed so in my opinion the pump will come at uh well the time that Bitcoin thinks it's right thank you

PlanB Bitcoin Prediction October 2024

PlanB 100trillionUSD (2M Twitter followers), creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.