good day fellow investors. Karim sent me an email discussing umor, a Belgian material cyclical business. The stock has plummeted, and I'm always interested in these European special companies where you can find some value. If you have some similar ideas, maybe I'll look into the Belgian Market. Just send me an email at invest.withen@gmail.com. The situation is the following: the company has been compounding over the last 20 years, but then entered into the battery boom that I have also forgotten, but now it has become a battery bust, and the stock is significantly down from 60 to 1. That's a huge, huge hit of 80%. What's going on? Well, umore cuts its profit forecast on slowing electric vehicle markets. That's the theme in electric vehicles. We have seen also Tesla being down 50%. Something is going on, but if you look deeper, you see that the p ratio is still there, just eight. So that's value. The dividend yield is there, and the company is diversified into four segments: EVS, of course, but it

still has great margins revenues 4 billion IITA almost 1 billion. That's a 25.5% IBITA margin. In 2023, it will be a little bit lower. In 2024, but on one hand, they have battery materials. On the other hand, they are still producing metals for internal combustion engine catalysis. So if this goes down, then this should go up. They are recycling, so they are also in that sphere. And they have also specialty materials or well diversified, but they are now investing heavily into new battery factories. I think in Canada, North America, China, and Poland. They have a billion on non-refundable grants capacity. That's a quarter of the money they will invest. So they will invest approximately 4 billion and more into batteries. So if they have long-term contracts, as they say, for that off-take of that battery capacity and technology, then it might be a very, very interesting situation. Because if they for X the batteries capacity, that's four billion for X this. That's let's say a billion on

iita add a billion on iita on current we are at 2 billion an ibita on a 4 billion market cap then it might be something very interesting. As we know, the global battery boom has been busting a little bit, so it's also oversold in some segments, and that's where value investors can find their opportunity on their performances. They have been into the sector for a while, they have all these special materials and metals investing in technology, so a very very interesting company to dig into. Also the tech there, but they also have catalysis internal combustion engine cars, and you can see here at first the cars were a little bit lower, but now production globally is picking up again as the growth of electric vehicles is not as fast as expected. You can see here their revenues going strong and I is even higher than batteries, so if batteries slow down, this should save the company and lead to profitability. This is this valuation that the market focuses on one thing but forgets about the other thing. They are Diversified.

globally, light-duty gasoline and heavy-duty diesel, so those should stick. I'm not switching to Electric until they give me charging of 2 minutes, 3 minutes, like I have at the gas station now. Until then, we'll go internal combustion engine. Sorry, guys, they have recycling, of course, prices of these Metals for Those catalyst have crashed, but they are still profitable. We did SI a while ago, it's still there. So also might be time to look again. It's still flat from where I made a video six months ago. If the supply and demand of these Metals will improve because if electric goes down, let's say hybrid goes up or internal combustion engine, then maybe also the demand and supply situation there will change. And you can see, of course, it's a material, it is cyclical, so there will always be ups and downs, but they have huge margins on recycling, great returns on capital employed, and therefore, in any environment, they should be able to have some cash flows. As you can see here, decline in iita but still making that

billion. If we look at profit and losses, of course, EB is there. Then you have depreciation, finance costs, and taxes. And then you get to net group share of half a billion in 2023. Adjustments, adjustments. And then they make okay, depending on the year, 400-500 million. That's then the P ratio of eight that we have seen. Going forward, it should be a little bit slower, but still if I lower the IITA, lower the cash flows, they should still make 200-300 million per year. Even with the negative guidance on the current market capitalization, we are still at around 10 plus. We have the growth coming that we'll discuss in a moment. There is that they are investing heavily heavily into those batteries and uh now it is still okay but they plan to go to 2.5 times IITA as they invest significantly into the batteries. To invest, they have hedged at lower prices, unfortunately, but they have hedged their production of PGM metals of gold, silver from recycling in order to have more

certainty into the cash flows coming in for their battery investments. The outlook has been already lowered a little bit, so the IITA will be a little bit lower, 100 million lower here, but there will still be the E. I have looked at the strategic projections there and net capital expenditure for the group 3.8 billion over five years and then run rate 800 million per year. So that's everything they make plus increased debt will go into the investments for these new battery factories and technologies. They are focusing on these solid-state batteries that, according to them, should take over more the current battery situation. And they have these 10-year supply agreements 2023-2026 to 2025, etc., that should then give more certainty to the cash flows as they build this supply chain of batteries. And you can see here big grants total investment 40% of it is a grant. And then they focus is to grow, get to that contracted values by 2027 and then get a

return on investment, but until then, given the current situation in the market, they have some capacity, but it will be, let's say, break even, and they will need to take on debt to pay for the growth. When it comes to such big investments and then the return starting from 27, it's always difficult for the market to see, to project, to calculate, and fear sooner or later takes over, and then you see that stock price crashing. But they have grants, European Union operational cash flows, it is strong, so they will increase the debt by 200-300 million per year, and all normal for a growth company. But if their investments in the next five years and the last five-six years lead amount to 9 billion, if they get to a 10% return on that, that's a 900 million, let's say, profit on that. Let's say they go to 2 billion on EBITDA, and then EBITDA, if it's interesting times seven, that's 14 billion market cap. That's a 4x on the stock. If you

calculate it in that way if that happens. Forex by 2027, the company has been successful in the past and makes it very very interesting as an investment. Of course, there is debt, there will be more debt, maybe some delays, you never know, that is the risk and reward. But there is something else. As I was reading through the research and press releases, COO changes, I have seen this. They're constantly calculating the blood lead levels in children living in the vicinity of their facility in Belgium, Hoboken, near ANP. And then I'm reading a little bit. All the levels are above, let's say, the average levels in children in healthy environments. And therefore, before investing here, you need to know and understand the situation in Belgium because these lead levels, everyone is sick there, especially in the Netherlands. I used to live here for a while in my life and U work here, and whenever we woke up, up there was a different smell every day, some different smell depending on the wind, where it was coming and what. So much industry here and for now there

is no Erin Brockovich going into the details, but maybe if American lawyers decide to expand into this area. I think there is plenty of work for them. I looked a little bit at the averages there, and this is double the average, which the lead levels. They are changing a little bit the research, but it's a worldwide problem. We say or 8.7 per deciliter compared to these levels now that are okay, but still I don't know on the cumulation of it. And also, you have to check on the local Belgian attitude towards that. Will there be fines or not? This is a risk that could materialize over time as they have been there for 120 years. Just five years of those last 50-60 that weren't wrong. And you can have a lawsuit with 4,000 people, and that destroys the company. When it comes to conclusion, it is cheap. We are now closing in on Book value. So whenever the Investments are there, they will keep investing, keep increasing that book value. They have a strong return on

Capital employed focus, and if they keep on working on that, this should end up well. As I said, potential for 4X now given situation in the battery, and that cycle, that downturn in the cycle might last a little bit longer. So you have the time to research, to follow those contracts, markets, sales, cash flows, and I might even do that, but also check the local situation with the lead, which I'll see now how it goes. And maybe if it goes a little bit lower and I have the time in six months to understand the cycle, maybe I'll give it then a deep big make a research report in the details risk and reward, put it on my research platform and see where it goes from here. I wanted to do this video, put what you know in the comments, and I sure you will remind me in six months again. Thanks for watching. I'll see you in the next video.

Umicore Stock Analysis - Battery & Recycling Stock!

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Umicore Stock Analysis - Battery & Recycling Stock!

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