Jong-hyun Jeon, Vice Chairman of Samsung Electronics, used the word crisis four times in his apology message. He emphasized a spirit of challenge rather than merely maintaining or defending a super gap, highlighting the importance of fundamental competitiveness over short-term solutions. It was interpreted that he acknowledged the key to profitability in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) sector. Reports suggest that Samsung claimed its HBM production efficiency is more than twice that of its competitors, leading to a perception that it would be difficult to catch up in the short term. In the foundry sector, Samsung has also struggled to find breakthroughs. While Chairman Lee Jae-yong has drawn a line stating he has no interest in the foundry area, the market share gap with the world's leading TSMC in Taiwan has widened to over 50 percentage points. It is estimated that in the third quarter, Samsung recorded a loss of over 1 trillion won in the foundry sector. Therefore, the market anticipates that Nvidia's next-generation AI chip, Blackwell, is performing well, indicating that the overall semiconductor industry will continue to face challenges next year.

The aquarium may show signs of recovery, but there are observations that Samsung Electronics' land may face a prolonged downturn. Hynix Micro is expected to see its operating profit decline compared to the previous two quarters, so the current situation is being assessed not as a downturn in semiconductors but as a stream for Samsung Electronics. Some argue that even if Samsung's fifth-generation HBM is supplied to Nvidia, it is already too late, and the focus should shift to the sixth-generation HBM, which is expected to be released after 2026. There are also evaluations that the sales performance of new smartphone products, such as the Galaxy Fold and Flip, has fallen short of expectations, indicating a widespread crisis. Samsung Electronics' stock price briefly fell back to the 50,000 won range but managed to maintain around 60,000 won. However, foreign investors recorded net selling for 21 consecutive days. SBS Kim Ji-sung reports that Samsung Electronics' third-quarter revenue reached 79 trillion won, marking an all-time high, but the operating profit was only 1 billion won, a decrease compared to a year ago.

Although it increased by 24.5%, it decreased by 12.8% compared to the second quarter. Initially, securities firms anticipated the third-quarter operating profit to reach around 14 trillion won, but concerns about a semiconductor winter and weak giants, particularly among foreign securities firms, lowered expectations to the 10 trillion won range. The actual operating profit was about 1 trillion won less than that. The price of general-purpose memory has declined due to sluggish smartphone and PC demand, while the foundry's low utilization has led to an expanded deficit in non-memory sectors. In particular, the large performance bonuses in the semiconductor sector have been reflected, which is why the third-quarter results are expected to be disappointing. Detailed performance by sector is scheduled to be announced at the end of this month, and securities firms estimate that the operating profit in the semiconductor sector will decrease by more than 1 trillion won compared to the second quarter, approximating around 5.3 trillion won. General-purpose memory semiconductors are being chased by Chinese companies, while NVIDIA's AI is being utilized seven times more in the fifth generation.

The delay in passing the HB quality test had a significant impact. When looking solely at the semiconductor sector, expectations are that SK Hynix's operating profit for the third quarter will be about 1 trillion won lower. Samsung Electronics' semiconductor head, Vice Chairman Jeon Young-hyun, unusually issued an apology message, stating that the results fell short of market expectations and caused concerns about the company's fundamental technological competitiveness and future. This is the first time the management has issued a separate message regarding the earnings announcement. Since the former vice chairman clearly defined the current situation as a crisis despite the profits during the restructuring, a major overhaul is expected to follow. SBS's Han Ji-hyun is here. Today, in Issue Talk, we will take a closer look at some interesting economic news. Economic commentator Jeon Cheol-jin has joined us. Welcome! Hello! Samsung Electronics has announced its third-quarter performance, reporting an operating profit of around 9 trillion won, which is quite substantial.

It may seem okay to think that everything is the same, but the market seems to be interpreting it as an earnings shock. Indeed, during the three months of July, August, and September, the operating profit was 9.1 trillion won, which on the surface looks like earning 9 trillion won in three months. However, when it comes to Samsung Electronics, the story changes significantly. In the securities industry, before the earnings announcement, there is a consensus forecast. It started with an expectation of 12 trillion won. People thought it would be bad, estimating around 11 trillion won, or even worse, adjusting the maximum target downwards, with the final adjustment being 10 trillion 770 billion won. So, it was assumed that they would at least achieve 10 trillion won. But when the results were actually revealed, it turned out to be 9.1 trillion won, which is far below the lowered forecast, resulting in a true earnings shock. Consequently, since July, almost...

In the past, foreign investors sold off Samsung Electronics, amounting to 10 trillion won. This has become a point where we can confirm the reasons behind it. Foreign investors seemed to have already anticipated this and acted accordingly. It's always like this; individual investors like us end up bearing the brunt of it. After the announcement of Samsung Electronics' performance today, they even released an apology. This seems to be an attempt to calm down the angry retail investors, right? Jeon Yong-hyun, the head of the DS division, I think this is the first time I’ve seen something like this. Typically, there have been cases where Samsung Group executives have apologized, but I believe it’s truly the first time they’ve apologized specifically for poor performance. There are two perspectives on Jeon Yong-hyun's apology. The first is that, usually, what investors want isn’t an apology but rather a clear explanation of what went wrong and how they plan to improve going forward, such as securing contracts with HBM or NVIDIA.

I want to talk about the vision. Because of the apology, this perspective is possible. It seems that this is really bad; it feels like there won't be anything noteworthy in the future. There’s a sense of anxiety that this might be the worst. On the other hand, there is also the perspective that they apologized neatly and might be starting anew. However, we can't delve into this in detail because this is a provisional result, a kind of breaking news. In terms of categories, Samsung Electronics includes semiconductors, home appliances, and smartphones, right? We don't know the performance by division, and there’s no forward guidance on what the fourth quarter will look like. The only thing that has come out is the actual figure, which raises many questions. However, the fact that the structure shows a profit of 100 billion won suggests that the memory semiconductor sector was quite poor and underperforming. This can be inferred from the inability to deliver proper results and the subsequent apology.

Some may think that this is rather strange. However, we have been expecting that AI semiconductors will create new demand. There have been reports that Samsung Electronics has made significant deliveries to NVIDIA, but we only hear about ongoing quality tests and no further news. Currently, HBM, which stands for High Bandwidth Memory, can be thought of as advanced memory. HBM is now moving beyond 8 layers to 12 layers, with Micron and SK Hynix having already started mass production of 12-layer chips. However, we have yet to see any reports or contracts indicating that Samsung Electronics has delivered HBM 3 8-layer chips to NVIDIA. We have been talking about moving directly to 12 layers, but it seems we need some evidence of our deliveries to NVIDIA.

There is currently no news on this front, and it feels like a truly frightening time. I wonder why Samsung Electronics is unable to keep up when companies like Hynix and even Micron have managed to navigate this situation. It’s a significant point that raises a lot of concern. Looking back, last month, Morgan Stanley reported that a winter is coming to the semiconductor market, which shocked many. Now, after seeing the performance results today, one might think, Is this really the beginning of winter? 

It's a mixed situation. The report titled Winter Is Coming explains why the semiconductor industry, especially memory semiconductors, is facing challenges. It highlights two main reasons. The first is that general-purpose semiconductors, often referred to as legacy semiconductors, which include DRAM and those not used in AI applications—like those found in PCs and smartphones—have already peaked and are on the decline.

There seems to be a downturn in the market; this seems to be accurate. This seems to be exactly right. At that time, Morgan Stanley projected a second reason: the HBM market. They mentioned that the advanced memory sector would face an oversupply and decline, but up to now, it doesn't seem like that has happened in the HBM sector. This is because NVIDIA continues to show strong demand, especially with the next generation, referred to as Black, which is selling well. Therefore, whether HBM will collapse due to oversupply is still an unresolved issue. So, out of the two reasons, one was accurately predicted, and while the semiconductor market has indeed declined, the situation with HBM seems to require further confirmation.

However, today, it wasn't just Samsung Electronics that caused a shock; LG Electronics also announced its earnings, and this too was an earnings shock. In the case of LG Electronics, there are several...

Experts are making forecasts, and those who view the situation very pessimistically have estimated it at 8.9 trillion. So, this time, the figure of 9.1 trillion seems to reflect that mindset. In the case of LG Electronics, they thought they would at least reach 1 trillion, but it seems they didn't even hit 900 billion. However, when the results were finally revealed, it turned out to be 750 billion. This was a significant earnings shock, as it was far from the expected figures. Compared to the same period last year, operating profit has decreased by nearly 20%. What’s even more shocking is that sales are quite good, yet operating profit has decreased. Why did this happen? The company stated that this is a preliminary figure, so they did not go into detail, but one reason is that shipping costs have increased significantly. For instance, if you think about LG's home appliances, they need to export, but in Europe, there are issues with the Houthi rebels.

The Red Sea is being monitored, and as a result, shipping routes are continuously being redirected around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. This has led to a general increase in shipping costs, which is quite significant. Additionally, it seems that marketing expenses have also risen considerably. I briefly mentioned this, but today in the market, LG Electronics saw a drop of over 5%. Both Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics, the two major electronics companies, announced earnings shocks, making it a challenging day for the market. Consequently, we cannot help but consider the overall economic outlook for the future. Looking at the stock prices, Samsung Electronics is already in a precarious situation at around 60,000 won. Therefore, the future outlook is crucial. Will stock prices improve in the fourth quarter? If we look at the stock price outlook, there is a metric called PBR, which indicates the company's current valuation. It reflects what would happen if Samsung Electronics were to close down and compares it to its market capitalization.

비교하는 배수인 만약에 돈돈이랑 우리가 똑같다 하면 한 배. 지금 삼성전자의 주가가 61,000원인데, 여기가 1.1배입니다. 그런데 이게 말이 안 되는 게, 주식이라는 것은 성장성 때문에 프리미엄을 줘야 하고, 삼성전자 같은 경우에는 엄청난 프리미엄을 줘야 하잖아요. 그러니까 이거는 저평가라고 할 수 있는데, 과거를 보니까 PBR 0.8 이하로 떨어진 적도 있습니다. 그게 주가로 따지면 한 57,000원, 58,000원 선이니, 뭐 그때도 열려 있었다고 보시면 되겠는데. 만약에 하나 정말로 이게 57,000원도 깨져버리고 더 빠진다면, 이제부터는 우리는 모르지만 전문가들은 알겠죠. 이제 삼성전자의 위험 사안이 있겠구나 이렇게 보셔야 되기 때문에, 지금 PBR이 한 배면 사야 돼, 뭐 전세값을 팔아서 삼성전자 사야 돼, 아직은 그런 구간은 아니고요. 더 간단한 지표 하나는 외국인이 빨리...

You should take a look at this as we turn to buying. Alright, I understand. Let's end today's discussion here. Thank you.

HBM, 잘 되는거 아니였어? 삼성전자만의 겨울, 현실로 / SBS / 모아보는 뉴스

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