When I woke up on Monday morning, I was still recovering from the weekend where I was recovering from Friday in a headline where one of the biggest chip makers, Qualcomm. It's reported we're going for Intel in this environment. Does that deal happen? Well, you probably won't be surprised that I'm not going to comment specifically on the deal. But I would say Intel has a storied history dating back to 1968. They've got a collection of phenomenal assets. The company is clearly going through a transformation. Pat and his team have been pretty clear in the plans they have outlined, including some significant CapEx reduction. What I would say is I'm not surprised that there's speculation around a number of interested parties whether that be strategic or whether that be private equity, who is looking to invest quite meaningfully across the whole artificial intelligence ecosystem, which we've already seen and we've already seen Apollo obviously work with Intel.

as well, that neither Intel nor Qualcomm commented on that reporting. And the other piece of reporting was Apollo, which has an existing relationship with Intel and again, strategic in the sense that they had co-invested in a specific project. Why isn't Intel attractive to a name like Apollo? It is a duration bet. It's infrastructure, you know, in the world of AI. It's building something physical and waiting for the payoff later. Yeah. Look, I think this is long-term generational investment. Funds like Apollo take an extremely long-term view beyond the frankly, the more of a short-term nature of the public markets. And when we look at M&A and the trends that we've seen over the last year, M&A activity is up quite meaningfully off to very low years in 2022 and 2023. And we're seeing strategics much more active, right? Siti advised on AMD and ZTE systems. We advised on IBM and Hashed record.

So not as transformational necessarily as Intel as we're talking about, but we're definitely seeing strategics be more proactive with as it relates to growth, vertical adjacencies. What we've seen public equity, private equity most active year to date is on dislocated public market valuations. What we haven't seen so far is the huge number of private companies with high mark, high watermark valuations in 2021 starting to come to market, but time results in valuation compounding, and that's where we do have high expectations for 2025 and 2026. And it's already happening. Phil today news of one of the biggest take privates in the software area. We've got Blackstone Vista Equity making an $8 billion take private offer to a company called Smart XI. Is that the sort of software long term revenue that they want to be digging into? Where do you see other opportunities in the take private field?

Yeah, I think Caroline, that's exactly spot on. We anticipate that we'll see more of this. You know, I think that artificial intelligence embedded on two years of data points in enterprise software is going to start to become really, really interesting. When we think about the first quarter of this year, the A.I. investment boom, if you will, focused on hardware, focused on chips, where and actually we saw a weakness in software. That weakness driven by a diversion of enterprise funds towards AI. But now we're starting to look forward. We've got more data points and we're starting to see a pickup in activity for enterprise software with embedded AI and how that can really be a catalyst for enterprise. So I think you're spot on. I think we'll see a lot more of this in 2025 and 26, and we'll start to see that private supply come to market as well, which is held off for now because

companies were very well capitalized. Private equity hasn't had to do anything. But now there is some pressure around AI, and I think we'll see a more vibrant sell side as well as an active buy side that sort of pigeonholes the positive side of making deals and taking private. There's the negative side of stressed assets. I mean, almost Intel might be that story, but we're looking today at Liberty Broadband, of course, key billionaire Malone trying to piece together some of his stressed streaming and cable assets. I'm looking at Liberty, broadband, and charter communications seemingly getting toward some sort of merger deal here. Are we going to see more of that mergers because they have to to survive because of industry pressure? Look, I think you'll see combinations for sure. I also think you'll see companies looking to carve and split and break out very valuable assets as well. There's no doubt we're in a moment of

time driven by A.I., which is causing corporations to look and reflect about how they're going to crystallise and maximise the valuation for their companies that can result in adjacent combinations, but it can also result in illumination of value through carve outs, through split offs. You know, we've not talked about activism, but, you know, we think this will be a theme that activists will focus on over the next couple of years as well. We're definitely going to go through change and and we're going to go through change through a greater sense of certainty on the geopolitical. This year has been a year of transition, more elections than we've ever seen in the past. Obviously, we've got a big one coming up. We will have a lot greater certainty on both the macro and the geopolitical when we get into 25 and 26. So, yeah, I believe we're going to see

more activity for a host of reasons. You mentioned AMD and ZTE. What was the other one that you mentioned that you advised on? There was IBM and Hoshiko. What is unique to both of those is they got done. And so I know you won't comment on Intel and Qualcomm, the idea of but in the context of what happens in November. Antitrust. Yeah. You know in this environment you do deals of that scale on paper, Intel and Qualcomm proceed well. The data is going to show a mixed bag of results. Right. We also advised on the Broadcom VMware deal, which went through obviously Microsoft acquisition went through. But there are examples of deals that haven't gone through. What it means is just look, there's a lot of focus, a lot of preparedness that's going on early on with advisors and corporations in terms of how certain can we be. With regard to global antitrust decisions, Citi's well positioned there.

we're operating in 160 countries. It gives us a good global spotlight on how regulatory bodies are going to react. But you're right. All you can do is build in contingencies early on in case deals break. But it can be a distraction when, you know, M&A is announced and it takes 12, 18, 24 months to complete.

Qualcomm Approaches Intel: Where Tech M&A Is Headed

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Qualcomm Approaches Intel: Where Tech M&A Is Headed

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