The supply volume is low, the interest rate is not high, and because the rent for old houses continues, some demand in the non-apartment market is transitioning to the rental market. Overall, if we look at it, there is a typical situation of increasing demand and insufficient supply, forming a rising market. So, the key point now is that, when will the rent prices stop rising? If it rises in the second half of this year and if next year, the rent prices stabilize or drop, then there is no need to worry. Hello, this is Buiknam. Today, I am here with Director Kim Man from Kimin Real Estate Economic Research Institute to discuss real estate. Director, hello. Hello. Before we started filming, we briefly discussed that these days, the atmosphere in the real estate market seems to have changed significantly. What could be the reason for this? It feels like the temperature of the water has changed a bit.

It's not just a feeling, but actually, even the statistics show that. Around me, things have changed a lot, including trivial matters. When I was young, I used to live by the seaside. When you go to the beach, there are layers of water temperature. In the summer vacation, the water is warm at first, but at some point, it suddenly turns cold and the water changes completely. I don't know what day it is, but there's a moment when the water changes completely. It gives you a feeling of not going in when it's cold. Recently, for about a month now, in the real estate market, based on Seoul, not nationwide, there seems to be a slight change in temperature. Actually, even looking at the statistics for real estate, it shows that. In the capital area, Seoul, the trend has already changed a long time ago, and the rate of increase has continued to exceed slightly.

My support for the real estate market was weak, but for about three weeks now, the rate of increase has clearly increased. I think the monthly rent is steadily rising, so it seems like the monthly rent is definitely on the rise. Therefore, the transition from buying to renting has now become a trend, and it seems that the monthly rent is increasing more steeply. Seeing the rise in monthly rent, some may feel uneasy. So, first of all, you can say that the current rise in monthly rent has changed the sentiment a bit. There are various factors that can be considered, such as the reasons for the rise in monthly rent. I would like to ask the opposite question: when did the monthly rent drop? When interest rates rose significantly in the second half of 2022, causing an increase in loan interest burden, people were surprised and converted to monthly rent, causing the monthly rent prices to drop. In addition, when did the monthly rent prices drop? It happens when there is a lot of new rental inventory available.

When 9,510 households in Helio City come out, it's a bit difficult in Gangdong-gu right now. Olympic Park Forest's supply is coming out, so when there is a lot of supply, loans are executed, so when interest rates rise a lot, suddenly, when it rises a lot, it becomes depressed. Actually, now, when will the interest rates go down is the point. It's not a mood of when it will go up. Basically, actually, the loan interest rates have come down quite a bit recently. Real interest rates have come down a bit recently. Real interest rates have come down a bit. When I asked about getting a loan from a bank recently, for example, in the case of KB, if you do this, the loan interest rate is around 3.5%. So, that's not a high-interest rate. So, actually, interest rates have come down a lot, and overall, I can't find factors for them to go down, but on the contrary, to go up.

One of the factors is the first one, which is the supply of housing. A lot of supply needs to come out, but except for Gangdong-gu in Seoul, the places with a lot of available housing are practically disappearing. It's a very difficult situation. In this challenging situation, the construction industry aggressively secures additional land to ultimately increase the supply. It's a realistic impossibility, and it's very difficult to both handle what has already been secured and increase the supply. The supply is low, the interest rates are not high, and the trend of empty housing leases and reverse leases continues, leading demand from apartment market participants to transition to the rental market. Overall, looking at the increasing demand and insufficient supply, a typical rising market is forming. So, the key point is that, right? So, until when will the rental prices keep going up? When will this end?

In the second half of the year, if it is said that the jeonse prices will stabilize or drop again next year, there is no factor to be anxious about that. Recently, an interesting result came out. According to the survey results, we renew our contract claims. Yes, yes. It was implemented on July 31, 2020, and even now, in 2021 and 2022, many people are claiming contract renewals. Around 70% to 60% of people are renewing their contracts rather than signing new ones. Why are jeonse prices going up? It would be better to just extend with a 5% upper limit restriction. Has anything changed from 2022? In 2022, now, interest rates are rising, and it will continue in 2023. As interest rates rise, the renewal rate is decreasing. It's gradually decreasing, like 33% in 2023, probably 33%. My memory is a bit hazy, but anyway, it's around 30%. This year, in 2024, our jeonse prices are rising, about 54% increase. Such discussions are coming up, but the contract renewal rate has dropped. Oh, it dropped further. Yes, 29%.

What fell apart? It's weird. Why aren't tenants requesting contract renewal when the rent is falling? Tenants all have their calculations. What kind of calculations? Well, if the rent prices have gone up a lot, it's natural to request a contract renewal. But recently, it's not a situation of skyrocketing prices anymore. Both sales and rent prices are gradually increasing. For example, let's say it went up by 50 million won. Now, the question is whether to request a contract renewal or not. When we think about it, will it go up more in two years? Looking at the current situation, we all think it will. Will the rent prices drop in two years? There are no factors for it to drop. On the contrary, if it goes up, it will keep going up. It's said that as the number of construction permits decreases, the prices go up. Currently, it's 50 million won, but in two years, it could be 150 million won.

There might be a possibility of it going up. So what should we do? Pay 50 million won and just extend it. We have the only contract renewal card saved. We'll use it in two years when the situation is right. If the housing prices drop in two years, then we don't have to do it, we can just go with the lowered price. So, by saving the contract renewal request now, it means that the tenants in the market are betting on a long-term rise in housing prices. Therefore, if the market has risen a lot compared to the previously contracted price, of course, we will use it this time. For example, if it has increased by 100 or 200 million won, then we will just request a contract renewal and extend it for two years. Since it has risen a bit now, it's better to just extend it for two more years, buy some time, and raise it a bit. Later, if it rises a lot, we will use the renewal right at that time. If we follow what you said, now we have a maximum of 6 years.

You can live to a certain extent, you can live for 6 years, so if I have that 6-year card, if I fall, I can go to another house. But if I use it now, I can only live for exactly 4 years, and I have to raise a lot next time. So, recently, those who have already used 2 plus 2 are now reaching maturity and coming back. They are more aware. So, when you look at these people now, the jeonse prices have gone up a lot compared to 4 years ago. What should we do? Some people might be surprised and buy a house. Of course, there are people like that. So, these people naturally anticipated it. How much has the cost of living increased compared to 4 years ago? Even just a simple kimbap has increased so much that it's incomparable to 4 years ago. Prices are all going up, and...

The lease deposit does not stay the same. That's an impossible story. Of course, it goes up. So, I think the contract renewal request is a bit unfair. If you are forced to raise it, after 4 years, it has doubled. In 2020, I signed a lease contract with our CEO, and now it's been 4 years. From the landlord's perspective, what do you think? If you don't raise it now and continue like this, it will be another 4 years, right? For a total of 8 years, you won't be able to raise it. So, you have to add what you couldn't raise during the past period plus what will go up in the next 4 years. The lease prices of properties like this will increase more, and anxious tenants, what will they do? They will have to go with a lease deposit. Some demand is also influenced by the thought of buying it at this church instead. You might have noticed this if you are preparing to move in about 4 years.

After moving before and moving now, the moving costs have increased significantly, almost doubled from 1.5 times. So, some people might be surprised by that. Anything that involves money is surprising. So, it's understandable that even the labor costs have increased a lot. So, if you ask for tens of millions more, people usually consider the labor costs and agency fees before making a decision. But thinking like that, it's better to raise it. If you consider labor costs and agency fees, you actually spend quite a lot of money. There must be realistic reasons for that. So, anyway, under the Lease Protection Act, especially 2 plus 2, and then the contract renewal limit of 5%, it is designed to stimulate gradual increases like this. This is how it should be seen as giving a stimulus to the market. So, I from the beginning.

Even when it was implemented in 2020, I was quite opposed. Why do you keep stimulating the market? Just leave it alone like water flowing. If the problem is two years, just make the minimum lease period three years. Then there will be nothing to claim or oppose, right? Actually, going from two years to three years is something landlords can tolerate an extra year, but doubling it is a different concept. I feel like the initial mistake has been made. Recently, there is talk again that the government will handle it, but I am worried about this too. Because when a policy comes out, market consumers react in some way, positively or negatively. If it is abolished, what will happen? What if it is not abolished?

If it's abolished, what should those who have prepared for contract renewal do? It will likely cause a great confusion. Right now, people need to buy houses. Probably, they will fall into a state of chaos, which cannot be allowed. However, the government says they will intervene, while the opposition party opposes. Realistically, it's not easy. So, I adjusted the 5% cap rate a bit, but isn't 5% a bit too much? In fact, it would be okay to renew contracts in line with the market price without raising them too much. In reality, our landlords are not refraining from raising rents at all. Because it's too much, I think it would be good if the ruling party and the opposition party could reach a sufficient agreement to make this more realistic. Compromise, compromise. Another thing is, from the perspective of landlords, when there is an implicit renewal, it becomes very frustrating once the contract period is up.

The landlord forgets or intentionally does not notify the tenant, the lease will automatically be extended for another 2 years. There is an implied renewal clause. Even during the implied renewal period, the tenant can request termination. If they want to leave, they can leave. Then, they need to notify three months in advance. This also applies to the second lease contract. Clearly, even if the tenant has exercised the right to request to stay for another 2 years, if they decide to leave without finding another tenant, they can just leave. So, if the neighbor's place becomes available at a lower price while living there, they might want to move there. Just let them go. This kind of adjustment is needed. Take responsibility for your actions. If you requested to stay, keep the relationship intact and have a sense of responsibility. It's not the tenant's fault, but the law should not allow tenants to use such tactics.

Because it was created, I think it's appropriate to make some revisions as you mentioned. Certainly, there are some side effects of the Lease Protection Act, but within that, there are some flaws in the law or disputes that need to be resolved. By correcting these things a little, we can reduce the confusion a bit compared to now. We shouldn't completely abolish it now and go back to three years. If we do that, it will create another confusion, and ultimately, the housing prices will not go down. If they keep going up, that's also a problem. They should go up reasonably, but if they go up excessively, it will lead to corresponding reactions and side effects. My position is to stimulate the market as minimally as possible. So, as you mentioned, ultimately, what stimulates the housing lease is whether the interest rates suddenly go up or down. How should we deal with this?

Since there is no increase in the number of households, eventually, if new construction supply increases and vacant houses increase, regardless, the jeonse (long-term lease deposit) may become somewhat stable. Realistically, it may be difficult now. Then, speaking in reverse, could there be another wave of jeonse shortage in the future? It seems to be starting. Especially in Seoul, the jeonse shortage has started. So, what are the factors that could lower the jeonse prices in Seoul? Supply needs to come out. By around the first half of next year, probably around 2025, Gangdong-gu will practically be finished. The Olympic Park Forest Village won't be occupied for a few years. It's true, right? So, once we pass the second half of 2025, it means Seoul will hardly have any new supply. Then, Seoul will focus on reconstruction and redevelopment. Reconstruction and redevelopment should be planned swiftly and comprehensively.

Will it be done quickly then? We have been preparing for this for ten years, and the results should come out now. During the Moon Jae-in administration, there were quite a few new housing supplies coming out in Seoul, priced around 470 million to 480 million won. However, it was not well done during the Moon Jae-in administration that led to the increase in housing supplies; rather, it was the effect of the regulatory easing provided during the Park Geun-hye and MB administrations that bore fruit now. They relaxed regulations, postponed harmful and delayed actions, and did many other things. In fact, during the time of former Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon, there are various logics, but due to the many regulations imposed, there are side effects of blocking reconstruction, redevelopment, and gentrification concerns that are emerging now. Recently, with the swift integration planning, various promotions and regulatory relaxations, such as creating a town center in Seoul, are being done vigorously. However, when will the results come out? I think it will take at least ten years for the results to come out, like the first-generation new towns.

Will it happen? It will happen at some point, right? The government is saying they plan to start construction in 2027. You know, it's not easy. It's quite impossible. If they start construction in 2027, we have to move now. People are living well now, and the communities haven't even been established yet. How can we move? Realistically, it will be very difficult for the supply to come out. So, the lease prices may continue to rise longer than expected. In the case of the metropolitan area, fortunately, they have been promoting public land development projects like the Sejong City since 2018. Therefore, areas like Gyeonggi Province and other metropolitan areas may be less severe than Seoul. After about 2-3 years, once the primary subscriptions are made and the supply comes out, it will be better than Seoul. However, the problem is how Seoul will solve this issue. Honestly, as for me, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs

As the minister, I don't think the issue of jeonse can actually be resolved. When the property prices go up, various taxes are imposed or what can be done to increase taxes. If the president or I become the Minister of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport, we can do it more harshly. Therefore, there is no solution for jeonse. How can we stop jeonse? Should we not lend to those who want to borrow? What should we do if we don't lend to couples who are resting? So, even though there are various reasons why loans are not provided, realistically, it is impossible. It's a mistake because it's a real estate market, so I think we should just leave jeonse to the market, and for the time being, there is no choice but for the upward trend to continue. Even in our past, in 2011 and 2012, Seoul was very difficult, and there were various times, but even then, the jeonse prices steadily rose. I think the factor for it to go up or down now is that a lot of supply needs to come out, but some experts are saying that a lot of supply is coming out in Seoul.

Many people claim that they should come forward, but I don't think I will come out much, so no matter how much I look at it, from my perspective, the premise that the volume is not coming out is that Seoul's entire land will probably go for at least 3 years, and at least 5 years if it's a bit short. So, when you look at the past administrations, usually when this happens, apartments become an issue, so they start building things like officetels or urban-style residential homes. First, they urgently turn off the fire, right? So, how did they supply it? But now, the atmosphere is a bit different from before with apartments, so this is currently not there. And I am in a position that strongly opposes that policy. No, I am against the government developing the market for officetels or new villa markets. If the market improves, let the private construction companies do it. However, naturally.

Is it because of me that the supply is not available right now? No, it's not. If there are no buyers, they won't take the supply. Why don't they take the supply? Because if you look at it cheaply, the house prices won't go up. First, villas are not allowed, and the second problem is now with the key money, you need to invest with that, and those investors need to take the supply, but right now, even though the key money for apartments is going up, that means the price of apartments is going up. Even now, in the case of villas and officetels, there are continuous occurrences of inflated key money and reverse key money. The special law on key money transactions is also in a dilemma. If the key money is not stabilized, this non-apartment market cannot be stabilized. Therefore, the government needs to quickly resolve the issue of key money. If they create a safe key money market where you can trust and sign contracts without problems, over time...

It's a problem that needs to be solved, but I'm not really worried about it right now. If the housing lease doesn't work out like this, wouldn't it be difficult for the new villa and officetel market as well? So, first of all, if we listen to what you mentioned earlier, should we strengthen things like security deposit insurance? Strengthening security deposit insurance could also be a solution, but there are many concerns about security deposits. If the government provides support, we will have to cover a lot of it with our taxes. Then, those who commit fraud will take advantage of it. When security deposits are well received, they say, Oh, security deposits are well received. Then they raise the amount, saying, Don't worry, just join the security deposit insurance. I've seen landlords like that. When tenants ask for their money back, they say, Why are you telling me? Talk to the security deposit insurance company to get your money back.

I was quite surprised when I heard someone talk about it so naturally. So when a policy comes out, there are side effects that arise from using it, so in order to stabilize the housing market, a special law is coming out. The most disappointing thing in the content of the special law was of course that we need to regulate the victims, we need to provide relief. It's true that we need to provide relief, but why do these incidents keep happening? If you look at the content, you can check the tax delinquency information, you can see it during the contract period without the landlord's consent, you can check the lease rate, and various other contents come out. Then, mainly young people in their 20s and 30s, you guys need to check it. It's difficult to check, and it's strange to check. If you don't know anything about real estate, you end up signing a contract. So, don't just tell them to sign a contract on their own. What we always emphasize is that we have YouTube.

When uploading a video to the Booilnam TV YouTube channel, how does the copyright check work? It's done by YouTube, right? They do it on YouTube. They check if there is any copyright infringement. Kim In-man mentioned that they don't check for copyright infringement. It's done automatically, right? But why doesn't the government automatically conduct stability checks on lease contracts? In a country like South Korea, known for its IT industry, whether you write a contract or do an electronic contract, if you have written a lease contract, you should scan it, upload it to the national system, and with a simple click, have it checked. Oh, this person has unpaid taxes. They own too many houses. What is the lease rate? Check various things, whether there are issues or not. If there are issues, immediately proceed to automatically sign up for insurance and move on to the next step to finalize the contract. It seems like South Korea might not be able to do this. I think it could be done.

Government and related institutions only need to meet and talk, but I lack determination and passion, so they have to do it that way for me to trust and just sign the contract, right? People nowadays don't engage in jeonse (lump-sum deposit rental system) because it's complicated and makes them anxious. It's better not to do it if it's a bit ambiguous. Even if I, for example, make a jeonse contract for our child or a jeonse contract for a new villa, they just say not to do it without even looking at it, saying it's bothersome. They say to just go for a monthly rent or just go for an apartment. So, if you just sign the contract like that, they say not to do it. In the national system, if you don't want to do it, you don't have to, and if they say to do it, you do it. But when problems arise, the government should take responsibility. If they set it up well, wouldn't there be fewer issues like that?

It would be really nice if you put in some effort. But now, looking at the recent legislative and administrative announcements, everything from legislation to administrative notices will be implemented starting from July. Real estate agents need to take care of these things and make contracts properly. That's the problem. So, they need to check everything like overdue payments, earnest money, the agents should confirm all of these things. Why is the government delegating its responsibilities to real estate agents? Of course, real estate agents should do it, but they should do it naturally. I think it should be done naturally. It should be done naturally. Fraudulent acts are abnormal behaviors. Those who commit fraud are abnormal. So, real estate agents who are involved in such activities are abnormal. Of course, most real estate agents will work honestly and diligently. But the problem is that if you are a real estate agent, you should do your best with a sense of duty. What is the worst punishment that real estate agents can receive? In the worst case, it's the cancellation of their qualifications.

It's about determination. Being prepared for the cancellation of qualifications means being prepared. Yes, explaining the work diligently to those who are prepared for the cancellation of qualifications will work. If it doesn't work, because the law for thieves and robbers is like this, saying, Why not do this with this? is more profitable than having your qualifications canceled. That's why. It's better to commit real estate fraud for billions of won rather than having your qualifications canceled. So, I think it's good if real estate agents do that, but real estate agents have a lot of complaints. The interest rates are gradually decreasing, and there is a lot of work, so recently, there have been cases where real estate agents refuse to do it. They say, I don't want to do this lease contract, I won't do the brokerage contract. I'd rather earn 300,000 won myself. So, they say they don't want to deal with it at all.

Because there are real estate agents, other side effects are actually occurring. But now, as you mentioned earlier, there are documents that real estate agents can check, but there are also things that cannot be done. For example, how many houses this landlord owns, or things like that, you can ask the landlord about this content again. Um, how about this? Do you have any unpaid taxes? Then, the landlord might say, No, there's no problem. So if a problem arises after the landlord says this, the responsibility lies with me. So, in this situation, I won't do it either. Why is this so awkward? Then ask the landlord to bring the documents, check the tax situation, and so on. Will they do it? Hey, I won't leave it to you. I'll go somewhere else. The probability of that happening is high. So, this is realistic.

It is very lacking. I would like to say that it is too much of a desk administration. So, if it continues like this for now, there will still be attempts by some people, especially targeting young social newcomers, to engage in housing scams and such. It is not easy to prevent these things. Filtering them out in the system is necessary, and of course, a lot of education is needed. Recently, I have also conducted lectures on the special law against housing scams in Seongdong District, and surprisingly, there are many people who are unaware. Even my juniors, who should naturally know about this, are unaware. So, it seems that there needs to be a lot of campaigns and educational programs. When it comes to these, I will do them regardless of money. Even if I receive very little, I will just do it. Because this is something that needs to be done for the next generation, I will do a lot of these things, and the country needs a secure contract system.

I just trusted and signed the contract, believing that if the country said it's okay, there wouldn't be any problems. But when issues arise, shouldn't the country take some responsibility? Will that happen a lot? So, if that's the case, for us ordinary people who are busy trying to make a living, please try to prevent us from getting stressed over things like this. In reality, because I don't know much about this, I signed the contract, but it could turn into a scam or various other things, so it would be best to prevent it altogether. Advising to go through a mediator like a real estate agent, landlord, or tenant to handle it themselves, saying just do it, I don't trust people to handle it on their own. I don't even trust myself, so if that's the case, viewers who hear this kind of talk might think the same. Oh, then those of you watching might be thinking about this. It seems like it will still be difficult to go on a full lease in the apartment area.

Then, demand will continue to flow into apartments, but now the likelihood of jeonse prices dropping again seems unlikely. If this happens, overall, it seems like jeonse prices will soar, and when jeonse prices rise, monthly rent usually goes up as well. There are tendencies like that. From the tenant's perspective, you may feel a bit overwhelmed right now. Tenants are actually the most frustrated. If you stay still, the sale prices go up, and then, are monthly rents cheap? Monthly rents are not cheap, they have been steadily rising. In 2022, jeonse prices dropped, but monthly rents also dropped. Monthly rents really don't drop, they don't. Monthly rents are not in a market that will drop like that. Jeonse operates on a different mechanism, while monthly rents are just paying the rent to reside, so there is no distortion happening, and they don't drop. So, they just live.

It's as obvious as seeing fire going up, and there is a fear that if you buy a house, will the house prices keep going up. Recently, in the case of Seoul, trading volume has increased a bit, with about 4,000 transactions increasing for two consecutive months. The sentiment has also improved a bit, but that doesn't mean it's definitely a seller's market. It's still a buyer's market. Because we don't want to buy a house that is currently falling in value, we need to bet on it going up more. How much more will it go up from here? Recently, those who are buying houses are mainly people without a house, or those who have one house are upgrading to a better area. In such cases, there is not much need to worry. If I have one house and move to a better area, what if the house prices next year.

You could fall, and if you fall, the house you had could fall too because we fall together. When going up, better houses will go up more. There is no need to worry. Also, mistakes that become capital, women have bought their own houses. If it falls next year, for example, what should we do? We live in it. We are living well, and my family will live well and go up. When there is a fall, the probability of going up is higher. We live in the house for at least 3 to 5 years before moving, so the probability of going up after 5 years is high. Rental prices are also rising, supply is short, interest rates are like that, and predicting the short-term market next year is difficult. The U.S. may not lower interest rates quickly.

Other variables could increase interest rates in five years. In fact, it's almost certain that they will go up. So, borrowers don't need to worry. However, for tenants, it's quite scary to buy after living in a jeonse system. I didn't originally plan for this, but now if I buy, I might fall into excess and have to keep raising the jeonse deposit. It's an uneasy situation for buyers. Therefore, some solutions or strategies are needed for these people. We need to provide some serious considerations and strategies on this.

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