Hello, this is Tost. Today, I've prepared an unofficial Tost report. As we wrap up the first half of the real estate market in 2024, let's review. Looking ahead, I would like to take some time to peek into how the second half will unfold. This might take a bit of time, so let me start with the conclusion since everyone may be in a hurry. Ultimately, the conclusion I always share is that the asset market does not play separately. In the end, whether it's apartments, the KOSPI, or U.S. stocks like the S&P 500, the direction remains the same. When looking at the graphs, the returns of the S&P 500 are tremendous. Regardless, recognize that the direction remains the same. Let's take a look at the first half of the market and the asset market in the second half together. [MUSIC] So, at the end of 2023 or at the beginning of this year, what happened? There was the real estate PF crisis, the real estate crisis, and high-interest rates. Due to these factors, scenarios of the worst real estate crashes overflowed.

MBC, unlike SBS, extensively interpreted these aspects without any plans, and many media outlets and numerous YouTubers also talked about it. However, I expressed an opposing opinion. I wondered why I always oppose the world, and during the first half of the year, I had discussions with Suga and others. Let's summarize. I have uploaded various contents on YouTube, but some representative ones include updates on the economic front and real estate front, investment plans of the wealthy, the real estate market after the general election, and recent concerning aspects of the Korean real estate market. In conclusion, the message I wanted to convey to you in the first half of the year is that the market is polarized, and the monthly rent and lease will continue to rise.

It will be, and real estate policies will not show a clear direction as a subtitle of the supply policy, and although there are expectations for interest rates, uncertainties will persist, and a strong market will unfold, and domestic demand will not be stagnant. As we move into the second half of the year, expectations for economic recovery will gradually rise. Therefore, when we consider these phenomena as a whole, the key point is a well-thought-out house. Due to the demand centered on actual users, there will be quite a bit of switching demand, so this market should be carefully observed. Yes, the leading market is an easy market for the core market to move. That's what I said. If we summarize the first half of the year, when we look at the results, ultimately, if we summarize what happened in the first half, in the sales market, ultimately, regional markets are experiencing some difficulties, and in leading areas like the Seoul metropolitan area, the non-apartment market, which I really dislike, such as officetels...

Villa, this is why the lease market in the apartment market is very strong. Currently, it is steadily increasing. And as for the sales market, as I mentioned before, if high prices come out, there will be unsold properties. Also, if there is a safety margin, it will show a huge profit, and this sales market will also polarize. This part has indeed come true. I'm not bragging that I got everything right, but when you roughly look at the content, it didn't deviate much from the expectations. That's why I hope you pay attention to Dolse's forecast in the second half of the year. Now, looking at the transaction volume, even if you only look at the recent transaction volume from January to March 2024 in the first half of the year, since I said that the real estate has hit the bottom and it is okay to buy a house from now on, the transaction volume has been steadily increasing. Especially from the winter of 2023 to the spring of 2014, the transaction volume continued to rise.

The trading volume is still increasing. Of course, the trading volume is not at the level of 2020 or 2019 because the price range has increased so much that it is not a situation where investment demand can access. Therefore, it is impossible for the trading volume to recover to the level before. However, even at this high price, the trading volume is increasing, indicating that transactions between actual users are continuing. Trading is centered around the leading markets. Therefore, the real estate housing market is showing a strong market and a strong neutral market. This is the interpretation. You should see it this way. And so, the leading areas are Banpo, Apgujeong, Yeouido, Gangnam, Jamsil Residences, and Haeundae City. They have decreased significantly and will start to rise from now on, as they have risen a lot since the point where they were expected to rise.

So, there are areas where the declaration price has been renewed, and there are also areas where the prices have risen significantly near new countries. Therefore, in the first half of the year, the leading areas in Gangnam have increased a lot. If you look at it this way, it seems that Gangnam is the only area that has risen a lot. However, it's not just Gangnam. In the Gangbuk area, there is Hannam-dong, which has very good apartments like Hannam The Hill, then Ahyeon-dong, Mapo's L'atelier Prugio, and then Seongsu-dong's Trimage. Even in the Gangbuk area, the core leading district apartments have already broken the declaration price. It's a reality that much higher prices are being achieved than before. Even the Mokdong area and the Gangseo-gu area are not calm. So, there are redevelopment issues, but in Mokdong, there is Bundang, Gyeonggi Province. In the Bundang area, there is Bundang Seo Yeon-dong, Jeongja-dong, and Baekseok-dong in Ilsan, around KINTEX.

It is showing a very strong trend, so it dropped a lot for a while, but recently, the trading volume and prices have been rising a lot. Therefore, it is a bit difficult to judge the current situation as a bubble. Now, it is not an investment demand, but a real demand for transactions. When looking at the southern part of the country, places like Pangyo, Baekhyun-dong, Wiryeseo City, Misa, Gwanggyo have all dropped significantly before but have been rising a lot recently. Also, areas like Dongtan and Cheonggyedong are gradually recovering, mainly focusing on the 10 million won price range. So, although it is not skyrocketing, compared to the point where it dropped sharply and people thought the real estate market would collapse, it seems to have risen a lot over the past year. In the first half of the year, it seems to have recovered to this extent, and there are areas where new signs are appearing. In this situation, how should we adjust our direction?

Will it happen? The point is, interest rates are sensitive, right? First of all, let's talk about interest rates. Switzerland lowered its interest rates, and Sweden did too. Well, it could happen to Switzerland and Sweden, but Canada lowered its interest rates, and in the end, even Europe 22 overall reduced interest rates. Mostly, now the Eurozone and Canada are doing it, leaning towards the US side. So, interest rates are mainly set by advanced countries. Ultimately, it seems crucial to accept that interest rates are pivoting. When interest rate hikes occur, and pivoting takes place, for those who own houses, if the interest rate pivot becomes certain, they may think they need to sell things quickly and cheaply. As a result, there will be a phenomenon where selling items quickly happens. In the end, the start of these interest rates is the beginning of global real estate, and also in the domestic market.

It's the same. In the end, rather than stimulating the buying desire of buyers, it ends up playing a role in creating more stagflation from the perspective of concerns that sellers are worried about falling and the items they put up disappear. So, how can we view not only the current interest rates but also other macros? The inflation has stabilized a lot now, so the eurozone inflation has come down quite a bit, and things like PMI technology are not bad. Producer prices are also stabilizing and coming down as the supply side opens up. However, due to a general stagnation in domestic economy, each country needs to stabilize prices to prevent stagnation, and in order to prevent stagnation, it is necessary to lower interest rates by about one step, and such a consensus is being reached.

It's the situation. The most important thing now is that many people in the United States are talking about it. The FOMC is coming up next week, so it seems like it will be discussed on the show this week. Therefore, looking at the current inflation level in the United States before the FOMC meeting, it has decreased a lot. Even though it has decreased a lot, it has not reached the desired level. In particular, excluding oil and food items, prices are on a downward trend. Recently, as oil prices have dropped to around $70, they seem to be at a stable level. However, it will take a long time for these to be reflected in the domestic market. Although the U.S. economy is currently doing well, ultimately, the inflation experienced by ordinary people in the domestic market is a very difficult issue. This is likely to have a significant impact on the U.S. presidential election. The domestic market in the U.S. actually has many challenging aspects. Therefore,

From the perspective of Paula in the FOMC, one cannot help but think about the aspect of pivoting towards a rate cut. Instead of thinking that inflation needs to go down further to lower interest rates, isn't it time to prevent the domestic economy from going down a bit here? I think it's time for a turning point. In the case of inflation, if it needs to go down more, this is something that FOMC, and even Powell in the U.S., as well as various national authorities, must be concerned about. If inflation goes down further from here, it should be seen as a recession. It's not good for inflation to drop; it's important for inflation to stabilize well. So, when you look at the supply-demand chart, as you can see on the left side, the reason inflation rose was because there were serious issues in the supply chain. But now, if you look at the middle of the chart,

The part marked in yellow is about considering the parts contributed by demand and supply when the prices rise. When prices rise, it's because demand exceeds supply, and shortages occur. However, looking at the current situation, since the supply side has stabilized and supply is smooth, the part where prices rose has been mostly resolved. But consumption hasn't decreased. Ultimately, for prices to fall, consumption needs to decrease. If consumption continues to decrease globally, it means an economic downturn is happening. Then, if interest rates rise sharply here and prices plummet drastically, housing prices and the SMP 500 will also fall, and even stocks will collapse, leading to a scenario where the asset market collapses. So, currently, stability is maintained.

If the Fed maintains a stable state and gradually lowers interest rates, it would be good to gradually lower interest rates while maintaining a stable state as well. I think it would be good to keep a stable state by leveling down the interest rates by one or two steps. This would lead to a better economic condition. Another aspect to consider is the PMI index. The U.S. manufacturing index has recently risen significantly, but the unemployment rate has slightly increased, and the PMI index has also shown some hesitation. Therefore, it may not be possible to have confidence in the economy at the moment. From the perspective of the FOMC, they might expect one or two rate cuts this year. The FOMC results will likely be announced the day after this video is released. So, I think it may not happen as expected by the markets. As for the energy sector, oil prices have risen significantly during times of war.

The portion that had risen has come down a lot. In the U.S., due to the shale oil and drilling activities settling to a certain extent, the oil price level is expected to be maintained between $70 and $80 per barrel for the time being. These factors ultimately help maintain the appropriate level of inflation. Therefore, the pivot on interest rates is not only happening in Europe but also in the U.S., starting from the second half of September, maybe once, twice, or even three times, but honestly, three times is a bit much for me. I think around two times would be better. So, it might be a good time to anticipate a rise in interest rates by about two times. Considering this perspective, it would be good. The direction of the benchmark interest rate is expected to be downward according to the previous dot plot, and now, although we have to wait for this week's dot plot, it doesn't seem like there will be significant differences. So, the U.S. economy is still robust, and the Nasdaq is down, as you all may have thought.

This is what it is. When interest rates are high, stocks fall, and if high interest rates are maintained, the real estate market collapses. You might have thought about these issues. They say that interest rates are not the major factor. Ultimately, interest rates also change depending on the economic situation, and the nature and characteristics of interest rate hikes, whether they are good or bad, can vary. In the end, currently, the U.S. is heavily supported by the Big Tech sector, so it is right to follow the economy. Asset markets, such as the stock market and real estate market, follow the economy. Therefore, the robustness of the U.S. economy centered around Big Tech is ultimately reflected in the stock market. If you look at the screen on the right, you will see the points of interest rate hikes. It will be very clear.

I have raised the interest rates in a short period of time and have maintained a high-interest rate for a long time, now for 11 months. However, even during this period of rising interest rates, if you look at the U.S. home price index while this high-interest rate is being maintained, how have U.S. house prices fared? When this is compared, rental prices have increased, sales prices have risen as well. While interest rates are rising and staying at a high point, home prices have continued to move upward. Of course, it's not a sudden surge, but it has shown a very strong stable market. It didn't show a huge trading volume, but in terms of amounts, there were increases in monthly rents, rental fees, and property prices. What does this mean? It means that it's not following the interest rates but rather following the economy. This is the perspective we should consider.

You know, the part I always talk about in terms of the economy, the characteristics of housing prices, it's not like only one specific country goes down and another country goes up. It's impossible because it's capitalism, a global relationship where countries educate each other, so they end up in similar positions. So, for example, it's not like only in the U.S. where interest rates are high, housing prices go up. No, recently in Europe, where the GDP hasn't grown significantly, they lowered interest rates. Even in Europe, although housing prices were on the rise due to high interest rates, they have recently received a slight adjustment in housing prices. So, what happens is strange. If interest rates are lowered, housing prices drop. Instead of constantly looking for the connection between interest rate cuts and housing prices falling, look for the connection between the economy and inspiration. In the case of Europe, as domestic demand has weakened slightly, housing prices have adjusted a bit, so the domestic economy has

For some economies, they have pivoted interest rates downwards. You can think of it this way. For example, in Australia, you can continuously see housing prices rising. In the Indian region, the economy is tremendous, so even in India, there is a strong housing market. In Canada, housing prices have recently increased significantly and are currently stabilizing. In Japan, housing prices are plummeting. I don't know who is saying that, but if you look at it from 2014, you can see that housing prices have been continuously rising. In the case of Korea, housing prices kept rising, similar to others, but in the second half of 2021, they peaked, and in the first half of 2022, housing prices suddenly dropped. They have not been able to rise again, only certain leading areas have increased, while overall, they are maintaining a stable trend. Looking at the graphs, the Eurozone has lowered interest rates, Australia is planning to lower rates, Canada has also lowered rates, and so on.

When we look at the situation, even in Korea, due to the stagnation in the latter half of the year in interest rates or domestic economy, it is a time when we can expect a slight decrease in interest rates despite good exports. So, it's not that the stock market goes up just because interest rates go down. Therefore, it is necessary to look at the economy, and interest rates are one way to predict it. OECD GDP is the most basic measure of economic conditions. Therefore, when we see the announcement of OECD GDP, it shows not a general global downturn, but rather a significant increase in the target level. Now, India, Indonesia, and even China are still at a high level of 4.7%, while Korea is expected to be around 2.2% among the G20 countries. This is a very high ranking for Korea among OECD countries and the G20, almost ranking first. Probably, the semiconductor industry plays the most significant role in this aspect for a country like Korea.

The GDP growth rate is very high. Amidst this, you may have seen the data in front of you, but as the GDP growth is expected to continue, if the domestic economy is a bit slow, lowering interest rates once could cause the housing market or asset market to decline. Therefore, it is expected to be very difficult for them to decline. So, if things continue as they are, last year, I also gave lectures and each company had different expectations for GDP growth in South Korea, ranging from 1.8% to 2.2%. But now, I think it could even go up to 2.88%. I kept talking about this, but eventually, changing my stance, it turned out to be 2.2%. As we approach the year-end, I am now thinking that it could reach 3%, having a more positive outlook. Ultimately, we need to look not only at the second half of the year but also at the markets for next year and the year after.

We need to draw a picture because investment is a scenario. So, I always say that we need to draw a big scenario not only in the housing market but also in the stock market and asset market. I've been saying this for about 3 to 4 years. The Fourth Industrial Revolution is now being planted and it is just the beginning. At this point in 2024, when is it? Ultimately, it is the starting point of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. It is not matured yet and has not penetrated human life significantly, so it is just the beginning. Nvidia's stock price is going crazy these days, but Nvidia is ultimately the seed of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. To see this seed grow, be fertilized with HBM, and become a tree and a forest, it will take about 10 to 15 years in the future.

That's right. So, it enriches human life, stimulates industry, activates the economy, brings about an economic boom, and there are still about 15 to 10 years left in this cycle. Considering this upcoming cycle, it's a bit difficult to talk about an economic downturn. Therefore, in the second half of the year, in order to boost domestic demand sooner, if each country lowers interest rates by just one step, the economic growth rate next year and the GDP growth rate could be more stable. If inflation is stabilized to some extent, the interest rate level will also be at a moderate level. So, in my opinion, the interest rate in the U.S. would be around 2.88%, and in South Korea, it would be around 2.5%. As for the economic growth rate, South Korea would be around 2.8% to 3%, and the inflation rate would be around 2.5%. I think this level would be the most ideal. Therefore, if the level goes below this, inflation may drop, and interest rates may rise.

If inflation occurs and the stock market and asset market collapse, and housing prices collapse, we will see a scenario where prices gradually decrease, interest rates gradually decrease, the economy grows safely, and domestic demand slowly recovers from the latter half of this year. I anticipate that next year, the recovery will accelerate. Ultimately, not only looking at the U.S., but also considering that Korea is significantly bound to the U.S. and the U.S. economy, as long as the U.S. economy remains stable, the Korean economy will not falter. Since we are an export-driven country, there are expectations that China's economy will decline, but in reality, manufacturing is on the rise, and there is a trend of China's economy hitting a bottom and recovering. Therefore, the recovery of the Chinese economy and the U.S. economy...

The solidity of the economy, these aspects, from the perspective of South Korea, which is bridging between China and the United States, is not bad. The economy is mainly export-oriented, but ultimately, domestic demand is weak. It is currently weak, but if it continues to be weak next year and the year after, there may be some improvement in domestic demand. Therefore, it can be seen that hoping for the U.S. economy to remain strong is not necessary. It is hoped that consumption will decrease slightly, leading to a slight adjustment in prices without a sharp decline. That kind of scenario is expected to unfold. Of course, in terms of my personal view, when it comes to price levels, the prices in South Korea are somewhat different from those in the United States. Since energy is not produced domestically, it is greatly influenced by oil prices. However, as oil prices have dropped to around $70, it is expected that as we go into June, July, and August, which are summer months, energy prices will also decrease a bit.

I'm thinking it won't go down. Even this May, the indicators didn't come out too bad. If these stable indicators continue downward this year, regardless of the US interest rate hike or cut, I think Korea may be able to have one rate cut. In this way, if the economy doesn't deteriorate, prices come down to a reasonable level, and interest rates pivot downward, eventually, the abnormal will turn into normal. Despite issues such as war, the coronavirus, diseases, tearing each other apart, and strong government tariffs, there are still many unresolved issues. However, through these, all economic movements related to abnormalities seemed abnormal, but now it is a moment of repentance turning towards normal flow. So, when this repentance towards normalcy happens, stable economic indicators will come out, and eventually, domestic demand will start earlier, leading to a balance between exports and domestic demand.

Once it happens, we can also expect an increase in the asset market. The trigger point is how quickly the penetration of industries related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution into real life is progressing. We need to think about these aspects. If you look at it this way, I think we should take some time to look into what will happen to the real estate market in 2024. Already half of 2024 has passed, and now only half remains. If you have a bit more positive points and invest confidently, how about that? If I only talk about the housing sector, what should people without a house do? What should first-time homeowners do? Let's think about what investors should do together. Did today's video help you? Subscribing and liking give us great strength. Let's stay together for a long, long time.

고금리에 주식시장 부동산시장이 상승하는 이유 2024년 상반기 자산시장 점검

안녕하세요 똘스의 뇌피셜 입니다!
남들이 알려주지 않는 경제 이야기 유익한 시간되세요!


네이버 카페에서도 저희를 만나보실 수 있습니다! 

네이버 고덕 부동산 카페 : https://cafe.naver.com/bxfile4
네이버 동탄 부동산 카페 : https://cafe.naver.com/dongtanclub


고금리에 주식시장 부동산시장이 상승하는 이유 2024년 상반기 자산시장 점검

고금리에 주식시장 부동산시장이 상승하는 이유 2024년 상반기 자산시장 점검

Scripts