Young Voter Trends: Gender Divide in Political Support

Young men increasingly support Republicans, posing a significant challenge for Democrats in upcoming elections.

### Young Men's Shifting Political Preferences and the 2024 Election
* 🗳️  In 2023, the percentage of young people leaning Democratic dropped below 50% for the first time since 2005, with young men increasingly supporting the **Republican Party**.
* 👨‍🎓  Young men prioritize the economy as their **top issue**, while young women focus more on **abortion rights**.
* 📊  Young men without a college degree have experienced a decline in labor force participation, while a record **87% of college-educated women are in the workforce**.
* 💰  Young men are more supportive of extending Trump's tax cuts, while women are opposed, and they are **less in favor of forgiving student loans** compared to young women.
* 👩‍⚖️  22% of young female voters say **abortion is their number one issue**, compared to only **3% of young men**.
* 🔊  The Republican Party has been actively targeting young men with messaging and appearances at events that appeal to this demographic, while Democratic messaging has focused on **issues more salient to women**.
* 📅  Young women historically vote at higher rates than young men, but with a tight election expected, the Democratic Party will need to **draw in as many votes as possible**.
* 🤔  The challenge for the Republican Party will be to **mobilize these young male supporters to actually vote** in the upcoming election.

- [Narrator] In 2008, 58% of young people leaned Democratic. In 2012, 53%. And in the last two major election years, that percentage held steady at 55%. But in 2023, that number dipped below 50% for the first time since 2005. And you'll notice right here, they started to lean more Republican. And that's partly because of one specific group, young men. Young men have increased their support of the Republican Party from 35% to 48%, a 13 percentage point increase in just seven years. And this is a new trend. While 2020 exit polls show that young men backed Biden by 15 percentage points, a February 2024 Wall Street Journal poll found they favored Trump by 14 percentage points. And this loss of young male voters is a major issue for the Democratic party going into November. The question now, can Kamala Harris bring some back?

(crowd cheering) Here's what's driving young men to support Republicans, and what it could mean for the presidential election to come. - Make America great again! - When we ask young voters, What issue is most important to you when you go to cast a vote? Among young men, it's the economy. Among young women, it's abortion. - [Narrator] 17% of men say the economy is the most important issue, followed by democracy and immigration. Whereas for young women, the top issue is abortion, by a lot. - Why is this happening? Well, we put the reasons into two different buckets. One is the life experiences that young men and young women are having. Those life experiences are diverging. - [Narrator] Young men without a college degree have seen the greatest decline in labor force participation. Meanwhile, a record 87% of college-educated women are in the workforce. And today, women make up 60% of college graduates.

- [Aaron Zitner] This division that we're seeing between young men and young women, it goes beyond who they're gonna vote for for Congress or president. It goes to a range of policy issues. So then, let's look at what the government is offering. The Biden administration has moved to forgive federally funded student loans, that affects young women more than young men. - [Narrator] During the 2019, 2020 school year, 49% of female undergraduate students took out loans, compared to only 42% of male undergraduates. And 66% of all student debt is carried by women. - [Aaron Zitner] The young women favored for giving student loans by 45 percentage points. The young men were about equally divided. I mean, that's a big difference. - [Narrator] Meanwhile, young men support extending Trump's tax cuts by 23 percentage points, which cut the corporate tax rate

and reduced some individual income tax. - And now, because of our tax cuts, you can keep more of your hard-earned money. - [Narrator] But women oppose the proposed extension by 20 percentage points, a full 43 point difference. - That's data that goes like this. young men headed in one direction, and young women in the other. That's a big difference. Data does not usually segment young voters that remarkably, this is something new, - [Narrator] Which brings us back to this chart. 22% of young female voters say abortion is their number one issue in this election, a key aspect of Harris's campaign. - We trust women to make decisions about their own body. (crowd cheering) - [Narrator] Only 3% of young male voters said the same. And young men and women stacked up differently on other issues as well. With immigration, Trump's policies are much more likely

to be supported by men than women. Men support deploying troops at the border by 10 percentage points, whereas women oppose this policy by 15 points. And when it comes to building the wall, one of Trump's key immigration policies, men are only slightly leaning towards opposition, but women overwhelmingly oppose it. These gaps are hard to explain just by differences in lived experience. Which brings us to the second thing that explains the gap between young men and women. - What are the candidates and what are the parties saying to young voters? Donald Trump and the Republican Party are putting out a lot of messages expressly intended to appeal to young men. Donald Trump has gone to Ultimate Fighting Championship matches. (crowd cheering) - [Commentator] And the president getting a standing ovation. - [Aaron Zitner] He recently appeared on the podcast of Logan Paul. He went to a sneaker convention to sell his own brand of sneakers. - We gotta get young people out to vote.

- [Aaron Zitner] These are audiences that are overwhelmingly male and overwhelmingly filled with young men, and it's a way that Donald Trump and his campaign have been saying, Hey, young men, I'm with you. I'm on the same page as you. I understand you. - [Narrator] Meanwhile... - [Aaron Zitner] A lot of the messaging from the Democratic Party has been towards issues that are more salient for women. - When I'm president of the United States, I will sign into law the protections for reproductive freedom. - [Narrator] So what does this mean for November? Young women historically vote at higher rates than young men. But experts say that with a tight election, the Democratic Party will need to draw in as many votes as possible. The next challenge for the Republican Party will be figuring out how to turn these young male supporters into actual voters.

Why So Many Young Men Are Leaving Democrats for Republicans in 2024 | WSJ State of the Stat

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The Wall Street Journal

Young people's support for the Democratic Party has dipped below 50% in 2023, with young men increasing their support for Republicans from 35% to 48% over seven years.

This shift is driven by differing life experiences, with young men without a college degree facing a decline in labor force participation, while college-educated women make up 60% of graduates and have a record 87% in the workforce.

The top issues for young male voters are the economy, democracy, and immigration, while young women prioritize abortion.

The Gender Divide in Young Voter Preferences

The division between young men and women extends beyond voting, impacting various policy issues.

The Biden administration's student loan forgiveness disproportionately affects women, who carry 66% of student debt.

Young men and women also differ significantly in their support for tax cuts and key political issues, such as abortion and immigration.

The Gender Gap in Support for Trump's Immigration Policies

Men are more likely to support deploying troops at the border, while women overwhelmingly oppose it.

The gap in support for building the wall is also notable, with men slightly leaning towards opposition and women strongly opposing it.

Trump's efforts to appeal to young men include attending UFC matches, podcasting with Logan Paul, and participating in a sneaker convention.

Donald Trump's campaign is targeting young men, aiming to resonate with their concerns.

In contrast, the Democratic Party is focusing on issues important to women, such as reproductive freedom.

With a tight election ahead, the Democratic Party needs to maximize voter turnout, while the Republican Party faces the challenge of converting young male supporters into actual voters.