Impact of Japan's Interest Rate Hike on Global Economy

The concern is that Japan's interest rate hike may lead to an economic recession, but the global M2 money supply does not seem likely to decrease significantly.

### The Impact of Japan's Interest Rate Hike on the Yen Carry Trade
Japan has surprised the market by raising its interest rates, contrary to expectations, in alignment with the U.S. model. The fear of a potential collapse of the yen carry trade arises as higher loan interest rates would decrease profits and could make the trade less favorable, especially with the potential for the U.S. dollar's interest rate cuts. The manual approach of Japan in raising rates, and the potential impact on the profitability of the carry trade, raises concerns about the future of investments in dollars.

### The N-Call Trade and Market Leverage Ratios
The N-Call trade is being compared to hedge fund activities, but the speaker believes that the leverage ratio is not excessively high. The rising yen and the increase in bond rates are seen as indicators of the market's reaction, with previous events already leading to reduced leverage ratios. The speaker emphasizes the need for careful management in light of potential BOJ interest rate hikes to avoid account collapse.

### The Significance of the Carry Trade in the Market
The carry trade has been a long-standing warning signal for the market, particularly in Japan's bond and monetary policy market. The use of the term "carry trade" is creating fear and anxiety among people, leading to a significant drop in stock prices. The ongoing uncertainty about high prices and the lack of a substantial trigger for a sudden drop are contributing to the uneasiness in the market.

### Analysis of Stock Movement and Market Correlation
The stock's performance is closely tied to the earnings announcements and forward P/E ratio. The market showed a strong correlation and consistent movement, potentially due to the liquidation of positions and the discussion about the yen carry trade. The speaker is considering holding onto the stock if the price remains around 25 times earnings next year, but is also open to other reasons for the market's behavior.

### The Current State of the Market and the Impact of Rising Interest Rates
Microsoft's impressive earnings report and plans for increased investment are driving the market's strong rebound. AMD is experiencing better-than-expected sales of its AI products, potentially influencing the market alongside NVIDIA. Despite concerns about expensive prices, the narrator has closed their short position and is optimistic about the market's future. The rising interest rates in Japan, Europe, and the UK are causing a shift in the market, raising questions about a potential economic recession, but the focus is now on the United States and its approach to interest rates.

### The Fluctuating Interest Rates and Global Money Supply
Interest rates in the US have shifted from pre-pandemic increases to post-pandemic decreases, and now there is talk of raising them again, creating concerns about an economic downturn.
Despite the tightening and the potential for a recession, the US, Europe, and China are all injecting money into the economy, which is likely to prevent a significant decrease in the global money supply.
The continuous money printing by governments and the reassurance of having tools to respond from the Federal Reserve suggest that there may not be a serious recession to worry about, providing various means to address the situation.

### Market Uncertainty: Yen Carry Trade, Interest Rate Hikes, and Global Economic Impact
* 🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan surprised markets by raising its benchmark interest rate to **0.15%**, following a pattern similar to the U.S. model of **0.25% adjustments**.
* 💼 Concerns about the "**yen carry trade**" have been circulating, where investors borrow in yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding assets, potentially **unwinding as rates rise**.
* 📉 Market volatility on July 11th triggered discussions about the potential impact of **carry trade liquidation**, with some linking it to **broader market movements**.
* 💰 Despite fears, the speaker argues that the **global money supply is still increasing**, with the U.S. and Europe likely to **inject more money** even if Japan tightens.
* 📉 The speaker believes that the current market adjustments have not yet brought prices down to **more affordable levels**, leading to **continued uncertainty**.
* 💼 The speaker closed their short position, indicating a **shift in their market outlook** following recent events and data.
* 📊 The potential for a **significant market trigger** (e.g., geopolitical conflict) is mentioned as a factor that could lead to **more drastic market movements**.
* 💼 The speaker cautions that while adjustments have been made, prices are still high, and further analysis is needed to determine the **market's true value**.

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