### Guyana's Oil Boom: Opportunities and Challenges Ahead

Guyana's oil boom promises rapid development but poses challenges to democracy and economic diversification.

### Guyana's Oil Boom: Opportunities, Challenges, and the Path Ahead
* 🌍 Guyana's President, Dr. Irfaan Ali, is at the forefront of **rapid national development**, attending numerous launch events, including the recent opening of the **Aiden hotel in Georgetown**, the country's third hotel aligned with an **international brand**.
* 🏨 With the Marriott consistently charging **over $600 a night**, the new hotel signifies a response to the **growing influx of foreign visitors** and the **urgent need for more accommodations**, alongside other upcoming hotels like Four Points by Sheraton and Ritz-Carlton.
* ☕ The opening of the first Starbucks in Guyana, where a medium latte costs about **$6.75**, reflects the **increasing disposable income among locals**, a stark contrast to five years ago when the country was among the **poorest in South America**.
* 🛬 The surge in demand for air travel has led to new flights from United Airlines and British Airways, reconnecting Guyana to major cities, showcasing the country's **expanding economy**.
* ⛽ The foundation of this rapid development is Guyana's **significant oil reserves**, with **11 billion barrels** discovered, positioning the country for **unprecedented economic growth** and a projected output of **1.3 million barrels per day** by 2027.
* 💰 However, the challenge lies in **managing this newfound wealth responsibly** to avoid the pitfalls seen in other oil-rich nations, such as Venezuela, which experienced **economic decline despite its oil boom**.
* 📊 Guyana's government is taking proactive measures, including establishing a **sovereign wealth fund** to ensure transparency and invest in **diversifying the economy beyond oil**, with a national budget of **$5.5 billion for 2024** reflecting these efforts.
* ⚔ Amid these developments, Guyana faces geopolitical tensions with Venezuela over territorial disputes, which could **threaten its stability**, emphasizing the need for **careful navigation of both domestic and international challenges** in this transformative era.

Perhaps no world leader spends more of their time at launch events than the president of Guyana, Dr. Irfaan Ali. That's because the small South American country is speedrunning national development. For example, just weeks ago, the president was at the opening of the Aiden, a new luxury

hotel in the capital, operated as a franchise of the Best Western. This is only the country's third aligned with an international brand, and it's badly needed. The country's top hotel, the Marriott, is consistently selling for over $600 a night as a recent influx of

foreigners has outpaced the country's ability to build hotel rooms, meaning it's consistently more expensive than the Marriott in New York's Times Square. But this new hotel in Guyana's capital of Georgetown is the first of a relative deluge backed by the country's

government, including a Four Points by Sheraton, Hyatt Place, AC by Marriott, Courtyard by Marriott, and a Ritz-Carlton. A Radisson Blu is already announced and in development. Also notable enough to warrant the president's attendance was the opening of Guyana's first Starbucks. Prices are steep,

higher in fact than in the US. A medium latte goes for 1400 Guyanese dollars, or about $6.75 USD. Considering just five years ago, Guyana was one of the poorest countries in South America with a human development index lower than that of

Palestine, it's remarkable that there are now enough people with enough disposable income in Georgetown to sustain such an expensive coffee shop. Something similar can be said for the country's new F. Chang's, whose opening was also, of course, attended by President Dr. Ali. There, an

order of crab wons goes for the equivalent of $22 US a major reason why these international brands are setting up in the country is because there are now more people from abroad coming into the country so in addition of course Dr. Air Fanale was also on hand to receive a

delegation from United Airlines when the carrier undertook its inaugural flight from Houston to Georgetown He fulfilled similar duties when British Airways started flights to the country via St. Lucia reconnecting Guyana with its former colonial capital of London as recently as 2019 Guyana's only flights beyond the

Caribbean region or to Miami and New York since then in addition to the Houston and London flights American and JetBlue added their own flights to New York Caribbean Airlines to Toronto and Avianca to Bogota There's just suddenly so much more in demand to get to the nation

and therefore so many more airlines willing to take travelers' dollars This turbocharged development also manifests in far less flashy ways as well The president also presided over the launch event of Dynamik Q a new Guyana based enterprise IT provider It may not be

exciting but as more and more tech-dependent companies enter the country they need a company to sell hardware integrate cybersecurity systems and provide ongoing support Something similar can be said for this highway opening as Georgetown grows larger and rents rise this section of land across

the Demerara River is suburbanizing and therefore this higher throughput road through the area will help alleviate commuter traffic Behind this all the reason why Guyana is developing so much so fast is oil and a whole lot of it Now in retrospect it's not some massive

Surprise that Guyana has oil, in fact it sits directly next to Venezuela, the country with the single largest proven oil reserves in the entire world. Geologists have long speculated that the same formations extended across the border into Guyana, yet decades of half-hearted exploration last century

only yielded uneventful discoveries that were either too small or too difficult to exploit commercially. Exxon held exploration rights since the late '90s, but it was only around 2013, as these rights drew close to expiring, that the company started to form a coalition of

smaller oil companies willing to do what they weren't. In paying $225 million for the exploratory drilling process, in exchange, these companies would get a portion of the overall oil rights and therefore revenue if oil was found at all. But on May 5th, 2015, the Deepwater

Champion oil rig broke through to liquid. The geologists were right, Guyana had oil. It would take some time for the true scale of this discovery to become clear as Exxon and its partners kept exploring over the years that followed. Their understanding of the extent of this oil

deposit grew and grew and grew. Today, 11 billion barrels worth of oil have been found. That by itself is a lot, it's a good bit more than that of Norway or Ecuador, for example. But while Guyana only sits around 18th in the world for proven

oil reserves, there's a big difference between it and every other country higher on the list. With a population of just 830,000, Guyana is far, far smaller than every country with more oil, meaning its oil per capita is amongst the highest in the world, beaten only by that

of Kuwait, but there is yet still a difference between Kuwait and Guyana. Kuwait is an Emirate, a form of monarchy, meaning much of the spoils of its oil wealth is confined to the ruling family. However, Guyana is a democracy, meaning at least in theory, oil revenue should be used for

the benefit of the nation and its people. It would therefore be reasonable to conclude, given the style of governance and the ratio of oil to people, that the scale of change that Guyana's oil discovery will bring about will be amongst the greatest any country has

ever seen. In just 5 years since the start of production in 2019, tremendous change has already unfolded, but that's truly only the start. The nation reached output of 645,000 barrels per day in 2024, representing a doubling of 2023

production, but based on the expected output of new projects already in development, Guyana is projected to double that count to 1.3 million barrels a day by 2027, and then beyond. The sheer scale of the oil's influence is magnified yet further by its cost. It's cheap, whereas

globally a barrel tends to cost between $50 and $60 to pull out of the ground. In Guyana, the comparatively simple geology puts it at just $36, near Middle Eastern prices. Oil sells in a global marketplace, so that leaves tremendous profit margins against

today's 70 or so dollar per barrel oil prices, with 50% of profits going to the government and profitability expected to only grow as project setup costs are paid off. Guyana is in for far, far more change than the tremendous amount that has already occurred in five short years.

but this change is far from a guarantee win. It would be intuitive on the surface to expect that a massive influx of cash into one of the world's poorest countries would lead to it becoming a far wealthier one, and it will. This is already happening, of course. Its economic

growth rates are quite literally the fastest in the world, but the mere fact that a country's top-line indicators move up and to the right is not necessarily a good thing. Look no further than Guyana's Western neighbor Venezuela as the country with the world's most oil. It

developed almost single-handedly off of the revenues the resource provided, and this did pull it up to the status as the wealthiest country in South America for a period. The standard of living in Caracas was high, democracy was stable, the economy was strong, but of course, the

Venezuela of today is far from that. In fact, on the list of the 10 countries with the largest proven oil reserves, the economic profiles of the nations vary widely. There are some of the world's wealthiest and most developed economies like the US, Canada, and UAE, but then

there are places like Venezuela, Iraq, and Iran. While these nations still trend wealthier on a GDP per capita basis than most of their regional neighbors, they certainly are not as wealthy as some of their neighbors on this chart. Plotting these nations out by GDP per capita

proves it objectively. There is very little correlation between oil reserves and national wealth. Economists know this and have studied the phenomenon since the birth of the petro-state, and they have at least some straightforward explanations. For example, currency exchange rates at their simplest level, ent all the manners in which countries

manipulate the relationship, fluctuate based on the traditional influences of supply and demand in a marketplace. That's to say, if more people want Guyanese dollars, likely to buy things from Guyana, they'll have to offer more US dollars per Guyanese dollar in order to compensate

for the increased demand, as only so many Guyanese are ever willing to take US dollars in exchange for their own. Of course, when a nation starts producing oil, plenty more people want to buy from it, so plenty more people want its currency. So, without intervention, a

currency's value will rise relative to others. You'll get fewer Guyanese dollars in exchange for each US one. This does have benefits. A Guyanese person could now buy a product from abroad, say an iPhone, for less, given the increased value of their money. Imported goods in general

get cheaper, but it also presents challenges. A Guyanese sugar exporter, for example, gets their money from abroad. Their income is tied to foreign currencies and therefore their income in local currency is now effectively lower. They might earn the same number of US dollars, but those dollars translate to

fewer goods and services locally. So, that's all to say, absent intervention, the success of oil often can lead to the failure of other older industries in a nation, the ones that actually employ local workers, since oil tends to hire from abroad. So, oil revenue by itself

does very little for a nation and can actually actively damage the economy. So, what matters is what a government does with the revenue. And the data pretty clearly shows what they should. While oil reserves exhibit almost no correlation with GDP per capita, another indicator does: oil rents as a

percent of GDP, that's to say the more reliant an oil-rich nation is on its resource, the less its economy tends to have developed. Or flipping that the other way, this appears to indicate that the more a resource-rich nation diversifies away from its resource, the greater its

economy will grow. Of course, these days, this is obvious. Every oil-rich nation talks constantly about diversification, the number that actually achieve it though is low. In that top 10 group, Canada, Russia, and the US were large and developed enough economies pre-oil that

diversification was never a worry. The industries in Venezuela and Iran are held back by sanctions and other geopolitical factors, meaning oil rent as a percent of GDP likely would be higher in an unrestricted market. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Libya are some of the

world's most oil-reliant and have not had tremendous success historically at diversification, even if Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, Kuwait have started to make more meaningful progress fairly recently. The UAE really stands as a rare example of a previously low-income

country experiencing a relatively recent oil boom and translating it into a high-income, stable, diversified economy. So, Ghana's task is to add itself to that exclusive list, and it's going to be anything but easy. Not only is Ghana tiny, it's disconnected

and divided. Take the nation's 2012 census, it's most recent since the country is yet to publish its 2022 edition nationally. 74% of people live in rural areas, putting it near Afghanistan and Tajikistan in the metric, and that

doesn't consider that 90% of the population lives in six regions that comprise the coastlands while the other 10% are spread across the other two-thirds of the nation's land mass in what's called the Hinterlands. In the Hinterlands, the closest comparable US

state in terms of population density is Alaska, while for the nation as a whole, the most comparable state would be the US's third least dense, Montana. Guyana then is not only small in size, it's small in population and population centers, with pockets of people and villages spread

across a relatively rough and heavily forested landscape. This makes managing a country, let alone a functioning democracy, all the more difficult as conveniences like broadband or cell service or even paved roadways have yet to make it to many communities. Then zooming out another physical disconnect,

more than half of all Guyanese live outside of Guyana. There are 300,000 in the United States, nearly 100,000 in Canada and 30,000 in the United Kingdom. If the Guyanese population of Brooklyn was a city in Guyana, for instance, it'd be the

country's second largest city. Effectively, the country is split between those who have and haven't left, with massive immigration beginning in the country in the 1970s, largely on account of a lack of work prospects and moments of real instability fueled by another

divide. This one ethnic, a result of colonial-era indentured servitude and the transatlantic slave trade, Guyana is split between two major ethnic groups with nearly 40% of the population Indo-Guyanese and another 30% Afro-Guyanese, while the country

has been governed by a multi-party democracy since before independence in 1966. The nation's stark ethnic divides have informed political leanings and fueled bouts of political violence, with the Afro-Guyanese passionately backing The People's National Congress while Indo-

Guyanese push the People's Progressive Party. Even in the country's heavily publicized and closely monitored elections of 1992, deemed the nation's first fair and free, riots and an attack on the elections commission building made the New York Times. The trend continued in the following elections of 

1997 and 2001 as violence marred both occasions. Nevertheless, Guyana has remained a democracy, albeit a concerningly frail one, as it ranks 67th on The Economist democracy index, where it's categorized as a flawed democracy. And it's these types of indicators that 

have onlookers worried that newfound wealth may well tip the country over. But Guyana, for its part, has so far backed its commitment to democracy in its burgeoning oil boom. For one, they've taken a play out of the number one ranked democracy on this list, Norway, in 

creating a sovereign wealth fund in 2019, essentially a national-scale investment portfolio to hold and grow the oil wealth. Because this fund, or the natural resource fund, is public, the Guyanese can keep an eye on it, cutting down on corruption. And because this fund is designed for the 

betterment of the country's future prospects, it's directed to invest in the all-important diversification of Guyana's economy beyond oil. In some ways, this move was a continuation of Guyana's 2017 entrance into the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, run 

by a Norwegian organization, which showed a governmental willingness to open up on how oil money is being used. And in 2021, the messaging of 2017 and 2019 was doubled down on with further amendments to the natural resource fund that ensured any transfer out of the fund

would have to be approved by Parliament rather than just a federal bureau with unelected representatives at the helm. And while young, the program is beginning to pay some dividends. In early 2024, President Aan Ali presented a national budget of 5.5 billion USD, a number that

blew past the previous year's high watermark of 3.75 billion, making possible a budget some six times larger than that of 10 years prior.  Was the fact that 29% of it was covered by four scheduled and executed transfers of natural resource funds money held in the

New York Federal Reserve Bank back to the nation.  You'll mark within this big oil-backed budget was nearly $500 million for developing agriculture infrastructure, nearly $1 billion for roads and bridges, and another $20 million towards the University of Ghana to help reduce tuition payments.  All efforts to

close physical and educational divides within the country. But perhaps the most exciting and ambitious aspect of the year's budget was the continued funding of a 300 megawatt natural gas power plant with another $400 million going to the project. The plant could have a truly

revolutionary impact on the nation as currently Ghana's total energy sector capacity sits at around 300 megawatts and relies on inconsistent and often private self-generated diesel power. In taking on a 1.7 billion dollar project to pipe unused natural gas from the oil field to

a plant roughly here Guyana is using its oil windfall to potentially electrify a country where houses are still colonial remnants, roads are still dirt, and cooking in some villages is done by wood and charcoal. The life-altering transformative potential can't be

overstated, but the project has hit some snags on the ExxonMobil side, the side responsible for constructing the 125-mile or 200-kilometer pipeline. Things are on target and on time for an end of 2024 delivery; however, on the plant construction side,

the side contracted out by the federal government to the US-based partnership of CH4 and Linza, disputes over timing and cost for the project have pushed the plant's projected opening into late 2025. In the grand scheme of things though, it's unlikely a delay and an increased

price tag will prove too much of an issue, or perhaps it's an example of a crack in the facade. It wouldn't be the first. Well, these first few years of Guyana's oil era have gone on balance smoothly. Hiccups have occurred, for one,

in the 2020 snap election, incumbent David Granger was nearly sworn in as president before the high court stepped in and blocked the move to make time for a recount, which ultimately proved the initial vote counting fraudulent, leading to Irfaan Ali's inauguration in 2024. Guyana's

representatives found themselves in the crosshairs of the UN rights committee over complaints of corruption and non-competitive bidding processes linked to government officials. And in every announcement of a new government program or large spending plan, there's the questioning from near and far academics

and overlooked rural giants alike over exactly which giant's people are meant to benefit from such projects and then there's the Venezuela problem. This region is called the Essequibo. It's a bit smaller than Florida. It's home to over

100,000. It's heavily forested. It holds a trove of gold and diamonds. And when looking at a map, it traditionally appears within the borders of Guyana, but not the one that Venezuela introduced in late 2023. Now, the region has been disputed for more than a century and while a 1966

agreement to find a solution, then efforts by Guyana to settle the dispute through the UN as recently as 2020 have pushed for a resolution. Venezuela has refused to play ball, and now the troubled country is only intensifying its rhetoric around the region as the

reimagined map of Venezuela has been paired with nationalist messaging on the part of President Maduro that the rise of Guyana and the encroachment of ExxonMobil in the region, an extension of American Empire in his view, is a direct threat. In a December referendum, it

appeared that a majority of Venezuelans agreed with the head of state as an incredible 99% of voters agreed that Venezuela has the right to the region. Turnout, however, was so low and the results so obviously altered by the government that Guyana and the rest of

the international community, wary of Venezuela's intensifying tone, took a sigh of relief. But Maduro has so far proved undeterred in the face of an unenthused Venezuelan voter base. His government has spent much of 2024 showcasing new missile boats on social

media authorizing and publicizing military aircraft exercises over the Atlantic and expanding the Annobón island military base and air strip directly on the border of Guyana. Maduro's exact purpose and what the unpredictable regime does next remains to be seen but

on top of its efforts to ensure it doesn't make the same mistakes as Venezuela, Guyana is also dealing with the existential threat of a large swath of the nation becoming Venezuela. But overall, the story of Guyana is not a new one. Plenty of previously

poor countries have navigated this complex web of opportunity and peril. What makes Guyana's situation unique is the combination of the fact that it's happening now, it's happening in a democracy, and it's happening in the US's backyard. That really just means more

people are paying attention. There's a long history of countries getting trapped in the resource curse and ending up no better than they were pre-oil. But many of those failures happened in an era where there was less historical precedent and therefore less recognition of the pitfalls worth avoiding. There's

also a long history of weak democracies devolving into authoritarian regimes with the pressures oil applies. It's happened in Venezuela, it's happened in Iran, it's happening in Angola. Each time the direct causes are different, but oil seemingly serves as fuel to the flame in

flawed democracies. When there's a lot to gain from corruption and weak institutions that could get in the way, one seemingly just gets more corruption backed up by authoritarianism. But there's not as much of a long history of countries as geographically close to the

The US is experiencing a situation similar to Venezuela, which is the main case. Considering where Venezuela has ended up, it would be reasonable to assume that the US will play a much more active role in Guyana than it has in many of the West African economies that have gone through oil booms, for example.

Guyana is off to a strong start right now in these early years. They're directing money in a lot of smart ways, and the country's democratic institutions appear to be intact. But the bulk of the challenge is still to come. Guyana has only gone through one election

since the scale of its impending oil wealth became clear. And that was the election that nearly ended as a coup. The Guyana oil boom is likely to be one of the world's last, with peak oil demand on the horizon. The industry is growing less and

less interested in investing the enormous amounts necessary to set up production in new areas. Already, unlikely new discoveries will increasingly go unexploited. So Guyana presents one last opportunity to get it right. The steps a nation in its position needs to take are as clear as they've ever been.

It's ensuring that it actually does so that's tricky. But if it does, it appears that Guyana is set for an incredible transformation that will reshape the entire region. Of course, understanding what's next for Guyana also requires an understanding of Venezuela's next move.

And understanding what Venezuela is up to has required a careful consideration of the biases within my own research on the topic, given how politically charged anything to do with the country, or its politics, or its economy, or its leader has become. When looking for sources and news stories to inform this video, I turn

to ground news the sponsor of this video take for instance the issue of rising tensions between Venezuela and its neighbors an important component of this video given that Maduro's regime is often associated with the perceived ills of socialism and given that so much news

is often sensationalized to pull clicks and generate ad revenue I wanted to make sure that it was fair to characterize Venezuela's tone as increasingly hostile towards its neighbors without repeating the biases of slanted news sources ground news allowed me to do that by

compiling articles on the growing rift between Brazil and Venezuela and characterizing the sources for such stories as center left or right it also generated a list of key points made in right-leaning articles and left-leaning articles in this case given so many sources were considered center and given

that the right-leaning and left-leaning talking points were fairly similar I was able to continue drafting the script with confidence that I'm not simply echoing my own or anyone else's political biases and our only as ground news of massive aid in spotting biases

and slant in the stories you care about it also has a feature called blind spot that identifies and introduces stories that are not getting equal coverage from the right and left which is so helpful to any and all news consumers because it allows each and every one of us to move

beyond our own biased media diets to consider what we're missing on top of blind spot ground news also has a local feed so you can plug in your city and quickly identify the slant and the stories that are getting covered in your hometown on top of this there's also my

news bias, which tracks reading habits over time. With this, I can see my most read outlets, the bias of the stories I read, and even the topics and people I read about most. It's basically a diet tracker for news. And one final aspect I'd like to shout out is the ownership

feature that Ground News has developed. They've analyzed well over 2,000 separate news sources to distill the ownership structure of each source into one of seven categories, ranging from wealthy private owners to two government-owned and operated news sources, which again helps me understand why a story is

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Guyana's rapid economic development and influx of international businesses

President Ali's frequent attendance at launch events signifies Guyana's rapid development.

Opening of a new Best Western hotel highlights the need for more hotel rooms due to increased tourism.

Government-backed development of several international hotel brands (Sheraton, Hyatt, Marriott, Ritz-Carlton, Radisson Blu).

Opening of Guyana's first Starbucks, with prices higher than in the US.

Opening of a P.F. Chang's restaurant, also attended by President Ali.

Increased international flights from various airlines (United, British Airways, American, JetBlue, Caribbean Airlines, Avianca).

Underlying factors driving Guyana's development: oil discovery and its impact

Launch of Dynamik Q, a local IT provider, catering to the growing tech sector.

Opening of a new highway to address suburbanization and traffic issues.

Significant oil discovery as the main driver of Guyana's rapid economic growth.

History of oil exploration, with Exxon's role in the major discovery in 2015.

11 billion barrels of oil discovered, resulting in high oil per capita.

Guyana's democratic system allows for potential benefits to the entire nation.

Significant increase in oil production, projected to further double by 2027.

Low cost of oil extraction leads to high profit margins for the government.

Challenges and potential pitfalls of rapid oil-driven growth

Rapid economic growth does not automatically equate to improved living standards.

Venezuela's experience as a cautionary tale of oil wealth mismanagement.

Lack of correlation between oil reserves and national wealth.

Impact of currency exchange rates on the economy and potential harm to local industries.

Importance of government's actions in managing oil revenue for national benefit.

Correlation between reliance on oil and economic development, highlighting the need for diversification.

Guyana's unique challenges: geographic, demographic, and political factors

Guyana's small size, dispersed population, and underdeveloped infrastructure.

Significant Guyanese diaspora population living abroad.

Ethnic divisions and their impact on political stability.

History of political violence and electoral challenges.

Concerns about the impact of newfound wealth on Guyana's democracy.

Guyana's strategies for managing oil wealth and promoting sustainable development

Establishment of a sovereign wealth fund to manage oil revenues transparently.

Commitment to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.

Significant increase in national budget, partially funded by the sovereign wealth fund.

Investments in infrastructure development (agriculture, roads, bridges, education).

Development of a natural gas power plant to improve energy access.

Challenges faced in the early years of oil production, including near-coup attempt.

Concerns about corruption and transparency in government projects.

Territorial dispute with Venezuela over the Essequibo region.

Venezuela's escalating military activities near the border.

Conclusion: Guyana's future prospects and global implications

Guyana's unique circumstances: timing, democratic context, and geopolitical location.

Historical precedents of resource curse and its impact on democracies.

Potential for increased US involvement in Guyana's development.

Importance of continued democratic governance and sustainable practices.

Guyana's potential for transformative change and its impact on the region.