Hello everyone. I am the head of the Metri Village, where we have been investing since the IMF crisis, studying economics, finance, and accounting. This is a comprehensive healing broadcast. Please note that this channel is not for financial advice. 

Hello everyone, today is Thursday, and the market just closed. It's September 5th, and in Korea, it has already become September 6th. It's 5 AM on Friday. I hope you have a great Friday. Right now, it's 1 PM in California. The weather in New York was really nice today, around 76 degrees, which is about 24 degrees Celsius. The sky was blue, and the weather was great. 

Looking back at yesterday, the market has been stable without any major fluctuations today. The Dow has risen quite a bit recently, so it did drop slightly yesterday and today, currently at 4,755.3.

It has dropped about 5.53% now, so if you look at it over the past five days, it has decreased by about 1%. Next, the S&P 500 is at 5,500, down 3.40, which is a decrease of about 0.30%. Today, the 5,500 level was briefly breached but then recovered, ending with a drop of about 0.30%. Over the past five days, it has fallen approximately 2.10%. Interestingly, today the Nasdaq rebounded, rising to 17,127.66, which is an increase of about 0.25%. In fact, in the morning, the stocks were soaring quite a bit, but ultimately, as we wait for tomorrow's unemployment figures and the unemployment rate, there was a bit of a swing, leading to some profit-taking. This resulted in a mixed close today. So far, the market has been leaning towards safer assets, but today it shifted towards big tech.

The market has shown some upward movement, particularly with the Russell 2000 index, which fell significantly before rising to 2,130. It has decreased by about 0.67%. Today, the fear index dropped below 20, allowing the market to stabilize before rising again. It went down to around 19, then climbed back up to 22, and reached 21 before dropping again. However, it has not fallen below 20 yet. Compared to yesterday, the volatility has improved, decreasing by about 5.58%, indicating a reduction in fear from Monday to today. 

Today, the big tech stocks led the gains, and as you can see from the chart, only large-cap stocks increased in value. Tesla saw the most significant rise, climbing nearly 4%, along with Amazon, Meta, Google, and Apple.

NVIDIA and others have risen, while Microsoft has moved nearly sideways. Oracle has also seen a slight increase, but most other stocks have fallen. Only Mugman has gone up a bit. Until last week, particularly from Monday to Tuesday, Dow stocks had increased significantly, but now that trend seems to be easing as the big stocks have dropped, suggesting that there may be some bargain buying occurring. This thought arises especially as Tesla's mood has improved and its stock is rising well. The indices released this morning were somewhat mixed. The ADP employment report came out this morning, indicating that corporate employment in August rose by 99,000, marking the smallest increase since 2021. There is talk that this figure was lower than expected.

This morning, the market slightly declined before the opening. The market sentiment is quite poor, and bond rates have dropped significantly. Fortunately, the index released today shows a decrease in unemployment claims. At 8:30, the number of people filing for unemployment was 227,000, down from 232,000. This indicates a reduction in the number of unemployed individuals. Additionally, the total number of ongoing claims decreased from 1.86 million to 1.838 million. The ADP figures for the labor market have not been entirely accurate, and there are often discrepancies with the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls that will be released tomorrow. However, it seems that the labor market is not as bad as it appears. Moreover, unit labor costs have also decreased, rising by 3.8% and then 0.4%, indicating a reduction in labor costs overall. Today, the general outlook is...

Former Secretary Yellen has stated that the U.S. labor market is still healthy. Although employment has slowed down a bit, she mentioned that the labor market remains strong. This suggests that the labor market may have stabilized. If you look at the unemployment claims, you'll see that the number of people filing claims, represented by the dark blue line, is decreasing. Additionally, the number of applicants per week is also showing a decline across states. Therefore, it appears that the labor market is not in a severely negative state. Furthermore, the ISM Services PMI released today at 10 AM came out positively at 51.4%. Since it is above 50, it indicates that the economy is still expanding.

The service sector accounts for over 70% of the U.S. GDP, which is why the U.S. economy does not seem to be performing poorly. The GDP is currently around 3%. Now, with the ADP employment report and the unemployment claims data being released today, it's uncertain how the market will react. Therefore, the non-farm payroll report coming out tomorrow is becoming increasingly important. As I mentioned this morning, the unemployment rate is more crucial. I expect it to drop from 4.3% to 4.2%. Regarding non-farm payrolls, I anticipate an increase to around 114,000 to 160,000. In a survey conducted among people, the most significant concern remains the unemployment rate. Over 50% of respondents have expectations regarding the unemployment rate.

Now, the non-farm employment numbers are being considered more important. We need to apply some analysis to determine whether we are entering a recession. Therefore, the unemployment rate is becoming a more critical factor in this situation. I hope the numbers come out well tomorrow. Today, we are still discussing this, and since the mixed numbers were released, I hope we see clearer indicators showing that the labor market is warning us. Recently, the market has been reacting positively to good news, meaning if the economy is doing well, that’s a good sign. However, if bad news indicates a recession, then it’s a negative environment. The market is trying to assess how much the economy is slowing down and whether the Federal Reserve's actions are perhaps a bit too slow. We will be able to make a judgment on this tomorrow.

Currently, there is still a lot of concern about the economic slowdown, with a 43% expectation that interest rates will need to be cut twice in September. According to Bad Az, there is still a high chance of a rate cut, with 57% anticipating a cut by November, potentially lowering rates from 4.5% to 4.75%. There is a 48.8% chance of a second cut, and then a 33% chance for two more cuts by December, suggesting a total of four cuts at a 40.4% likelihood. There is also a 34.7% chance of a fifth cut down to 4%. Given this situation, everyone is anxiously awaiting the numbers to come out tomorrow, and it seems that the market might have fluctuated today before stabilizing. The bond market also saw a significant drop but has stabilized somewhat. The 10-year bond yield fell by about 4 basis points to 3.72%, while the 2-year bond yield decreased by about 2 basis points to 3.75%. Overall, there hasn't been any large movement, but there is some slight adjustment.

Reflecting on the pre-game, it has dropped a bit, and although it differs, it has fallen to 10.06%, going down to the 100 range and then slightly rising again. It is down about 0.23%. Therefore, in the bond market and the dollar market, there hasn’t been a significant movement. It has decreased a little, but the oil market seems to be doing okay. Brent is up 0.18% at 72.83, and West Texas oil is up about 0.12% at $69.28. There hasn’t been any major movement, and the gold price has risen to 245, up 0.79%. Today, the cryptocurrency market is still in a downward trend, continuing from yesterday. If you look today, Bitcoin has fallen about 3% to 5,980, and Ethereum has also dropped about 3% to 2,360. So, there still seems to be a preference for safe-haven assets like gold. Nevertheless, today, 600 out of 2,600 stocks have risen, with 267 stocks increasing.

One stock has fallen today, showing a pattern somewhat similar to yesterday. As you can see by looking at the sectors, Tesla performed the best today. If you look at the electric vehicle sector, you can see that electric cars have done relatively well. Tesla has risen by 4.90%, recovering to the $230 range. That's impressive, considering it had recently dropped to around $20 and previously fell to $182 before rising again. Currently, it is significantly above its fair value. Additionally, Rivian and Lucid have also risen, with Lucid increasing by 14% today. On the other hand, traditional car manufacturers like GM and Ford have seen declines. The reason Tesla has risen is due to the Full Self-Driving (FSD) rollout expected in the first quarter of next year in both China and the United States.

Tesla's AI team has officially announced that they can receive government approval. So now, they are in a situation where they are waiting for that approval. Following this announcement, Tesla's stock price has risen significantly today. As I mentioned in the morning, there was a considerable amount of short selling on Tesla, with around 60% of shares being shorted. I pointed out that the short selling pressure was weak, and indeed, Tesla performed exceptionally well today, rising by 4.90% and approaching $234. There has been a lot of profit-taking happening at this point. The launch date for the ride-sharing service is also approaching, and there are various updates, including the ability to summon the car with Smart Summon. So, the stock continues to rise in this situation.

If the FSD deployment happens in China, there are currently about 2 million vehicles operating, so I believe the profitability will increase significantly. In Europe, around 1.2 million units have been sold as well. So, as soon as FSD is installed, there is a possibility that nearly 3 million vehicles could have FSD capability. Even if the adoption rate is about 30%, it could still mean around 1 million units sold. At $100 each, that would be a substantial amount of money. As I mentioned earlier, there is a possibility that the Smart Summon feature could be available to everyone next week. Elon Musk has talked about this. With the news of shared taxis, Smart Summon, and the expansion of FSD into Europe and China, the stock has been performing well. Donald Trump mentioned that he would hire Elon Musk as part of his administration.

Elon Musk is discussing reaching an agreement, and he mentioned the establishment of a government efficiency commission. It has been said that he will be given a position there, which would be almost at the ministerial level. Additionally, there is news that someone from Tesla Energy has left; a director who has been there for eight years is departing, and that person is Roham. We hope a new person will be chosen well. Tesla's stock has risen to $230, bringing its global market capitalization back to the 11th position. The market cap of Tesla has climbed to $735.3 billion, and it is closely following the market trends. Below Tesla is Broadcom, which has seen a slight drop today, but earnings reports are expected soon. Currently, Nvidia's market cap stands at $2.6 trillion.

I am currently in a situation where I am the only one in the $2 trillion club, holding the third position. Today, the important event is Broadcom's earnings announcement. If we smoothly transition to semiconductors, Morgan Stanley selected ALM as a top pick today. ALM, Qualcomm, TSMC, and Nvidia all saw an increase today, and indeed, there was a rebound. Micron Technology also rose. The fate of the semiconductor industry can be said to depend on Broadcom's earnings. As for Nvidia, yesterday, the Department of Justice summoned them due to an antitrust investigation, which was reported by Bloomberg. Today, Nvidia responded, stating that they have not received such a summons; they have received information requests but not a summons. Bloomberg also made excuses on TV this morning, but whether they were summoned or not is not the important thing.

It would have been nice if such articles had not been published from the beginning. I feel that the damage has already been quite significant. Furthermore, rather than AS, ALM is better. Today, Morgan Stanley recommended ASML, which dropped about 2%, while ALM rose by 2.2%. 

Today, the Biden administration announced that it would further strengthen export controls. Reports indicate that the Biden administration will impose stricter export controls on quantum computing technology. This has slightly affected ASML, as well as Lam Research and Applied Materials. KLA was also impacted, but IronQ was relatively less affected, thankfully. 

We can see this situation, and for now, Time magazine has selected the most influential figures of the year.

I picked it, and Satya Nadella from Microsoft, Jensen Huang from NVIDIA, and Mark Zuckerberg were selected. Interestingly, there is also a mention of Altman from OpenAI, and our Chairman, Masayoshi Son, is included here as well. However, what's missing is Elon Musk. I don't quite understand why he wasn't selected. Anyway, it seems that the earnings report will be out soon, but it hasn't been released yet. Has Broadcom's earnings report come out? It seems like there's been no significant movement since then. We'll keep an eye on that shortly. Among tech stocks, platforms saw an increase today, with companies like Kentopi, Meta Platforms, Mercado Libre, and DoorDash being selected as top picks. So, those stocks have risen a bit. Looking at the AI sector, it has also performed well today.

After the announcement of the numbers, UTI rose by 7%. Following that, it increased by about 5%. Mid-cap stocks performed very well. Digital Turbine also saw a rise. Currently, stocks that Ark has invested in, such as UTI Physics and Zoom, have increased significantly. Delta Airlines rose by 5%, and Tesla increased by about 4%. Amazon, Roblox, Snowflake, Apple, Meta, and Google all performed well today. However, there are still some stocks that are lagging behind. I think these will do well if Broadcom's earnings report is good. In the airline sector, American Airlines and others have rebounded a bit. There are also some stocks in this sector that are performing well. Additionally, regarding healthcare stocks, I wanted to mention Nalco. Nalco has secured about 400 million dollars.

Today, there was some news about investments, which seems to have led to a drop in the stock market. Overall, pharmaceutical stocks also fell by about 3.5%. However, companies like Moderna and Pfizer saw significant increases. Additionally, Verizon announced that it would acquire Frontier for nearly $20 billion to enhance its fiber network. Despite this investment, Verizon's stock price dropped a bit, although it had risen significantly before, reaching almost $40 from around $28. Today, Broadcom is expected to release its earnings report, but the stock has already fallen by 3.44%. So, it appears that the stock price is declining despite the earnings report being released. Broadcom's CEO, Hock Tan, mentioned that earnings exceeded expectations by 3 cents.

The revenue came out to be 13 billion dollars, which is an increase of 1.1 billion dollars compared to last year. However, their stock price has actually dropped. Is there a deliberate intention to lower it? It has fallen by about 4%, and I wonder if they are reacting too sensitively. 

Regarding Broadcom's earnings announcement, the revenue was reported at 13 billion dollars, which is a 47% increase from last year. The EBITDA came out to approximately 820 million dollars, and the cash flow itself is not too bad, appearing to be around 490 million dollars. Additionally, the free cash flow is about 470 million dollars, which represents roughly 37% of the revenue. They also announced a dividend of 53 cents. The guidance for the fiscal year 2024 is set at 14 billion dollars.

I spoke about it. So, this is a 51% increase compared to last year, and we can say it's a good result. However, the stock price is currently falling. Given the situation, there doesn't seem to be anything particularly special going on. But why is the stock price dropping? I think we should wait for the earnings announcement to find out. For now, it has dropped about 4%, but the performance seems to be quite good. Besides that, we might learn more by looking at the target stock prices from institutions tomorrow morning. I will provide more details tomorrow morning. Looking at the current situation, there are no special updates from Broadcom, and the stock price has dropped about 4%, so we should keep an eye on it. That's all for today's news. I wish you all love and blessings, and please subscribe, like, and set the alarm for updates.

I have a class, so I have to go now, everyone. I will take my leave. Have a great day and a good night. Well, I will see you tomorrow.

미국주식시황/오늘 왜 오르다 말았나? 테슬라 엔비디아 상승!한 이유? 브로드컴 실적!?/ 구글 애플 아마존 메타 마이크로소프트 팔란티어 SMCI 델 LLY등 $tsla #tesla

반교수 TV는 미국 럿거스대 종신교수 이주택교수의 교육과 정보전달, 힐링, 소통을 목적으로 하는 경제, 주식, 투자, 종합 엔터테인먼트 방송입니다. Dear My Daughter, 미투리(미국투자스토리), 반교수의 로스쿨이야기, 반교수의 무한 도전등 다양한 채널로 이루어져있습니다. 2020년 12월에 시작된 이 방송은 20년을 바라보고 딸에게 아빠로써 보여주고 해주는 이야기들입니다.  2020년 뉴욕과 뉴저지는 코로나 바이러스로 많은 사람들이 집에 갖힌채 생명의 위협을 받고 있었습니다.  바이러스, 환경 파괴, 정치적 혼돈등 앞으로의 세상을 예측할 수 없는 상황에서, 또는 제가 존재하지 않는 상황에서라도 제딸이 꾿꾿하게 지혜를 가지고 세상을 살아가기를 바라는 마음에서 이 프로젝트를 시작하게 되었습니다.  2020년 40대 중반의 이민자 아빠가 종교, 법, 철학, 경제, 영어, 공부하는 법등 아는 한도내에서 한국에 머물고 있는 딸에게 다양한 이야기들을 해줄 예정입니다. 
제 책 '다시 오는 기회, 미국 주식이 답이다'(미국 로스쿨 교수가 20년간 미국 주식시장을 관찰하며 깨달은 ‘10년 후’ 시장): https://tinyurl.com/mrw7hckv,  https://tinyurl.com/5x9eckh5; '딸아 주식 공부하자'도 많이 읽어주세요.
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미국주식시황/오늘 왜 오르다 말았나? 테슬라 엔비디아 상승!한 이유? 브로드컴 실적!?/ 구글 애플 아마존 메타 마이크로소프트 팔란티어 SMCI 델 LLY등 $tsla #tesla

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