I always tell those involved in bonds to keep an eye on the job opening rate, which is very important. The job opening rate is the most crucial data among today’s figures that we need to remember. If the job opening rate starts to fall below the mid-4% range, I have mentioned several times that the unemployment rate will begin to rise significantly. So, looking ahead, I think that by the end of this year or, at the latest, early next year, we can expect the unemployment rate to start increasing more substantially.

Hello, this is Yeongwon. Last night, an important indicator related to employment was announced, so this morning I wanted to quickly analyze the content and share it with you. The previously released data is what we usually refer to as the job opening turnover survey, which relates to employment and job changes.

This is data related to the employment report that will be released this Friday, which is considered one of the two most important indicators related to misuse. Therefore, it would be good to familiarize yourself with this content today, as it provides valuable data on the current state of employment in the United States and how it is evolving. Let's move on to the first point. There has been a lot of feedback indicating that explanations have been too lengthy. Due to this feedback, we are trying something new this time. We have compiled the overall JT data summary, organizing the JLT data numbers into about five main categories. If we take a quick look, we can see that at the top, the opening indicates that the number of jobs has increased by about 300,000 compared to the previous month, reaching 840,000.

Next, regarding the job opening rate, it appears to have increased from 4.6 to 4.8 last month. This has been assessed, and if we look at just these two data points, it shows some improvement in employment compared to the previous month. However, when we delve into the detailed data, we see a different picture. For example, the hiring rate, which reflects the number of hires, has decreased to 3.3. Additionally, the ratio of voluntary resignations, which I often mention, indicates that as the rate of voluntary resignations decreases, it suggests that workers generally believe the labor market will worsen in the future. This ratio has also declined compared to last month. Overall, while the top numbers, such as job openings, might seem positive at first glance,

Although it looks good on the surface, detailed indicators confirm that, as I've been continuously mentioning, the labor market is slowing down. Let's take a closer look at each aspect. Regarding job openings, I have included both a monthly chart and a long-term chart below. First, compared to last month, job openings were around 7.7 million. This month, they increased by about 329,000 from the previous month. As a result, approximately 840,000 new job openings were created. In fact, this figure was somewhat higher than the general market expectations on Wall Street. Therefore, based on the job openings number, it seems that the market was slightly surprised, as the results came out higher than expected. The reason for this slight increase compared to market predictions is primarily due to the construction sector.

The slide you are looking at discusses the construction industry in the United States, specifically the increase in jobs on a monthly basis. This month, there has been an increase of 138,000 jobs compared to the previous month. This is a record high, marking the largest increase in construction jobs. However, as you may know, we see this as a one-time occurrence. Nonetheless, it is important to note that the overall trend shows that the labor market is continuing to slow down. We can confirm this with another important piece of data that was announced the same day, which is the ISM manufacturing index. Among the ISM manufacturing index, there is a sub-data related to employment. The green line represents business sentiment. What I want to focus on is the business sentiment, which surveys companies about their future plans for employment. This month...

If you look at the moon, you'll see the green line has sharply dropped down over the last couple of months. Although the number of job openings has increased this month, the willingness of companies to hire, as indicated by the employment indicators, has been consistently declining over the past three months. Therefore, we believe that the increase in the job opening rate this month will be temporary. I always tell those who are involved in bonds to pay attention to the job opening rate, which is something we can intuitively observe. The job opening rate, particularly the monthly figures over the past ten years, is the most important data to remember from today’s information. I have also mentioned this to individuals I teach, and I occasionally talk about it on YouTube as well.

As I mentioned, when the opening rate falls below the mid-4% range, the unemployment rate begins to rise significantly. I've said this several times. Therefore, it is very important to understand where the current rate stands. Let's take a look at the projections for 2024. In January, it's projected to be 5.3%, in February 5.3%, then 5.0%, 4.8%, 4.9%, and 4.8%. Last month, do you remember? In early August, both the JOLTS and labor reports were released poorly, which caused a significant shock to the market. One of the numbers that contributed to that shock was the JOLTS data. When it drops to a two-digit number, it goes down to about 4.56. So, it suddenly dropped from 4.8 to 4.6, which caused quite a shock. However, this month it has slightly recovered to around 4.8%. But if you look at the big picture...

It continues to fall, heading towards the mid-4% range and the early 3% range. This month, we slightly rebounded, and I believe that by the end of the year, or at least by early next year, the opening rate will drop to the low 4% range, meaning below the mid-range. At that point, I think the unemployment rate will rise more than the market expects. For about a month or two, the situation may worsen slightly, but we might see some sideways movement in labor-related data. However, in the bigger picture, the number of job openings compared to unemployed individuals will likely reach a critical threshold by the end of this year or early next year. Therefore, I would suggest that if you develop a bond investment strategy based on the labor market, it will definitely be beneficial. Thank you.

[속보]미국 고용지표 회복? 속지마세요, 진짜 경기침체 시그널이 나왔습니다

채권, 매크로 전문채널
마경환의 생각하는 투자
